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BG | Articles | Volume 17, issue 7
Biogeosciences, 17, 2061–2083, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Biogeosciences, 17, 2061–2083, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 16 Apr 2020

Research article | 16 Apr 2020

Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers

Thomas L. Frölicher et al.

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Revised manuscript accepted for BG
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Cited articles

Boer, G. J.: A study of atmosphere-ocean predictability on long time scales, Clim. Dynam., 16, 469–477, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050340, 2000. 
Boer, G. J.: Long time-scale potential predictability in an ensemble of coupled climate models, Clim. Dynam., 23, 29–44, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0419-8, 2004. 
Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Halloran, P., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Séférian, R., Tjiputra, J., and Vichi, M.: Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 10, 6225–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, 2013. 
Buckley, M. W. and Marshall, J.: Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review, Rev. Geophys., 54, 5–63, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000493, 2016. 
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Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global scales marine ecosystem drivers such as temperature, pH, O2 and NPP are potentially predictable 3 (at the surface) and more than 10 years (subsurface) in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Our study suggests that physical–biogeochemical forecast systems have considerable potential for use in marine resource management.
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global...
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