Articles | Volume 17, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
06 Jul 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 06 Jul 2020
| 06 Jul 2020
Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections
Lester Kwiatkowski
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Université-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, 75005, France
Olivier Torres
LMD-IPSL, CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure/PSL Res. Univ, Ecole Polytechnique, Sorbonne
Université, Paris, 75005, France
Laurent Bopp
LMD-IPSL, CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure/PSL Res. Univ, Ecole Polytechnique, Sorbonne
Université, Paris, 75005, France
Olivier Aumont
LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Université-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, 75005, France
Matthew Chamberlain
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS 7000, Australia
James R. Christian
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada
John P. Dunne
NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Marion Gehlen
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ,
Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91190 France
Tatiana Ilyina
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Jasmin G. John
NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Andrew Lenton
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS 7000, Australia
Australian Antarctic Partnership Program, IMAS, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Hongmei Li
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Nicole S. Lovenduski
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine
Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
James C. Orr
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ,
Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91190 France
Julien Palmieri
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Yeray Santana-Falcón
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, 31057, France
Jörg Schwinger
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Roland Séférian
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, 31057, France
Charles A. Stock
NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Alessandro Tagliabue
School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3GP, UK
Yohei Takano
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
Jerry Tjiputra
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Katsuya Toyama
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan
Hiroyuki Tsujino
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan
Michio Watanabe
Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Akitomo Yamamoto
Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Andrew Yool
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Tilo Ziehn
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS 7000, Australia
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Total article views: 20,761 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 07 Nov 2025
Short summary
We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models....
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