Articles | Volume 17, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020
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06 Jul 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 06 Jul 2020

Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections

Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn

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Cited articles

Alexander, M. A., Scott, J. D., Friedland, K. D., Mills, K. E., Nye, J. A., Pershing, A. J., and Thomas, A. C.: Projected sea surface temperatures over the 21st century: Changes in the mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern Oceans, Elem. Sci. Anth., 6, 9, https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.191, 2018. 
Andrews, O. D., Bindoff, N. L., Halloran, P. R., Ilyina, T., and Le Quéré, C.: Detecting an external influence on recent changes in oceanic oxygen using an optimal fingerprinting method, Biogeosciences, 10, 1799–1813, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1799-2013, 2013. 
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09712, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051607, 2012. 
Bates, N. R., Mathis, J. T., and Cooper, L. W.: Ocean acidification and biologically induced seasonality of carbonate mineral saturation states in the western Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 114, C11009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JC004862, 2009. 
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We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
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