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BG | Articles | Volume 17, issue 13
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 06 Jul 2020

Research article | 06 Jul 2020

Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections

Lester Kwiatkowski et al.

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Alexander, M. A., Scott, J. D., Friedland, K. D., Mills, K. E., Nye, J. A., Pershing, A. J., and Thomas, A. C.: Projected sea surface temperatures over the 21st century: Changes in the mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern Oceans, Elem. Sci. Anth., 6, 9, https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.191, 2018. 
Andrews, O. D., Bindoff, N. L., Halloran, P. R., Ilyina, T., and Le Quéré, C.: Detecting an external influence on recent changes in oceanic oxygen using an optimal fingerprinting method, Biogeosciences, 10, 1799–1813, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1799-2013, 2013. 
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Bates, N. R., Mathis, J. T., and Cooper, L. W.: Ocean acidification and biologically induced seasonality of carbonate mineral saturation states in the western Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 114, C11009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JC004862, 2009. 
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We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models....
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