In changing climate, tundra is expected to turn into shrubs and trees, diminishing reindeer pasture and increasing risks of tick-borne diseases. However, this transition may require a disturbance. Fires in Siberia are increasingly widespread. We studied wildfire dynamics and tundra–forest transition over 60 years in northwest Siberia near the Arctic Circle. Based on satellite data analysis, we found that transition occurs in 40 %–85 % of burned tundra compared to 5 %–15 % in non-disturbed areas.