Articles | Volume 18, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2727-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2727-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Apr 2021
Research article |
| 30 Apr 2021
| 30 Apr 2021
Optimal model complexity for terrestrial carbon cycle prediction
Caroline A. Famiglietti
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, USA
T. Luke Smallman
School of GeoSciences and National Centre for Earth Observation,
University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Paul A. Levine
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, USA
Sophie Flack-Prain
School of GeoSciences and National Centre for Earth Observation,
University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Gregory R. Quetin
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, USA
Victoria Meyer
Department of Liberal Arts, School of the Art Institute of Chicago, Chicago, USA
Nicholas C. Parazoo
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, USA
Stephanie G. Stettz
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, USA
Yan Yang
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, USA
Damien Bonal
Université de Lorraine, AgroParisTech, INRAE, UMR Silva, 54000
Nancy, France
A. Anthony Bloom
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, USA
Mathew Williams
School of GeoSciences and National Centre for Earth Observation,
University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Alexandra G. Konings
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, USA
Viewed
Total article views: 3,979 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 29 Dec 2020)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,729 | 1,182 | 68 | 3,979 | 276 | 63 | 103 |
- HTML: 2,729
- PDF: 1,182
- XML: 68
- Total: 3,979
- Supplement: 276
- BibTeX: 63
- EndNote: 103
Total article views: 3,094 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 30 Apr 2021)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,158 | 880 | 56 | 3,094 | 166 | 51 | 81 |
- HTML: 2,158
- PDF: 880
- XML: 56
- Total: 3,094
- Supplement: 166
- BibTeX: 51
- EndNote: 81
Total article views: 885 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 29 Dec 2020)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 571 | 302 | 12 | 885 | 110 | 12 | 22 |
- HTML: 571
- PDF: 302
- XML: 12
- Total: 885
- Supplement: 110
- BibTeX: 12
- EndNote: 22
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 3,979 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 3,721 with geography defined
and 258 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 3,094 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 2,932 with geography defined
and 162 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 885 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 789 with geography defined
and 96 with unknown origin.
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Improved process representation of leaf phenology significantly shifts climate sensitivity of ecosystem carbon balance A. Norton et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2455-2023
- Potassium limitation of forest productivity – Part 1: A mechanistic model simulating the effects of potassium availability on canopy carbon and water fluxes in tropical eucalypt stands I. Cornut et al. 10.5194/bg-20-3093-2023
- Are Plant Functional Types Fit for Purpose? J. Cranko Page et al. 10.1029/2023GL104962
- CARDAMOM-FluxVal version 1.0: a FLUXNET-based validation system for CARDAMOM carbon and water flux estimates Y. Yang et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1789-2022
- Resolving temperature limitation on spring productivity in an evergreen conifer forest using a model–data fusion framework S. Stettz et al. 10.5194/bg-19-541-2022
- Scale variance in the carbon dynamics of fragmented, mixed-use landscapes estimated using model–data fusion D. Milodowski et al. 10.5194/bg-20-3301-2023
- Evaluating alternative ebullition models for predicting peatland methane emission and its pathways via data–model fusion S. Ma et al. 10.5194/bg-19-2245-2022
- Comparing an exponential respiration model to alternative models for soil respiration components in a Canadian wildfire chronosequence (FireResp v1.0) J. Zobitz et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-6605-2021
- Evaluating two land surface models for Brazil using a full carbon cycle benchmark with uncertainties A. Caen et al. 10.1002/cli2.10
- Particulate and mineral-associated organic carbon turnover revealed by modelling their long-term dynamics X. Guo et al. 10.1016/j.soilbio.2022.108780
- The carbon cycle models analysis as applied to research wetland ecosystems in Western Siberia S. Semenov & A. Tashkin 10.18822/byusu202204145-152
- Attributing Past Carbon Fluxes to CO2 and Climate Change: Respiration Response to CO2 Fertilization Shifts Regional Distribution of the Carbon Sink G. Quetin et al. 10.1029/2022GB007478
- Pixel-level parameter optimization of a terrestrial biosphere model for improving estimation of carbon fluxes with an efficient model–data fusion method and satellite-derived LAI and GPP data R. Ma et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-6637-2022
- Modeling demographic-driven vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling in NASA GISS's Earth system model (ModelE-BiomeE v.1.0) E. Weng et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8153-2022
- Optimizing Carbon Cycle Parameters Drastically Improves Terrestrial Biosphere Model Underestimates of Dryland Mean Net CO2 Flux and its Inter‐Annual Variability K. Mahmud et al. 10.1029/2021JG006400
- Numerical Modeling of Biogeochemical Carbon Cycles in Swamp Ecosystems E. Dyukarev & S. Semenov 10.14258/izvasu(2022)4-16
- Forest productivity recovery or collapse? Model‐data integration insights on drought‐induced tipping points J. Au et al. 10.1111/gcb.16867
- Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Global Carbon Cycle Predictions: Lessons and Perspectives From 15 Years of Data Assimilation Studies With the ORCHIDEE Terrestrial Biosphere Model N. MacBean et al. 10.1029/2021GB007177
- Climate Sensitivities of Carbon Turnover Times in Soil and Vegetation: Understanding Their Effects on Forest Carbon Sequestration R. Ge et al. 10.1029/2020JG005880
- Isolating the effects of land use and functional variation on Yucatán's forest biomass under global change S. George-Chacon et al. 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1204596
- Water Stress Dominates 21st‐Century Tropical Land Carbon Uptake P. Levine et al. 10.1029/2023GB007702
- Biogeochemical Carbon Cycles Numerical Modeling in Wetland Ecosystems S. Semenov et al. 10.1134/S1995080223030307
- From Ecosystem Observation to Environmental Decision-Making: Model-Data Fusion as an Operational Tool T. Smallman et al. 10.3389/ffgc.2021.818661
- Feedback density and causal complexity of simulation model structure A. Naugle et al. 10.1080/17477778.2021.1982653
23 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Improved process representation of leaf phenology significantly shifts climate sensitivity of ecosystem carbon balance A. Norton et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2455-2023
- Potassium limitation of forest productivity – Part 1: A mechanistic model simulating the effects of potassium availability on canopy carbon and water fluxes in tropical eucalypt stands I. Cornut et al. 10.5194/bg-20-3093-2023
- Are Plant Functional Types Fit for Purpose? J. Cranko Page et al. 10.1029/2023GL104962
- CARDAMOM-FluxVal version 1.0: a FLUXNET-based validation system for CARDAMOM carbon and water flux estimates Y. Yang et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1789-2022
- Resolving temperature limitation on spring productivity in an evergreen conifer forest using a model–data fusion framework S. Stettz et al. 10.5194/bg-19-541-2022
- Scale variance in the carbon dynamics of fragmented, mixed-use landscapes estimated using model–data fusion D. Milodowski et al. 10.5194/bg-20-3301-2023
- Evaluating alternative ebullition models for predicting peatland methane emission and its pathways via data–model fusion S. Ma et al. 10.5194/bg-19-2245-2022
- Comparing an exponential respiration model to alternative models for soil respiration components in a Canadian wildfire chronosequence (FireResp v1.0) J. Zobitz et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-6605-2021
- Evaluating two land surface models for Brazil using a full carbon cycle benchmark with uncertainties A. Caen et al. 10.1002/cli2.10
- Particulate and mineral-associated organic carbon turnover revealed by modelling their long-term dynamics X. Guo et al. 10.1016/j.soilbio.2022.108780
- The carbon cycle models analysis as applied to research wetland ecosystems in Western Siberia S. Semenov & A. Tashkin 10.18822/byusu202204145-152
- Attributing Past Carbon Fluxes to CO2 and Climate Change: Respiration Response to CO2 Fertilization Shifts Regional Distribution of the Carbon Sink G. Quetin et al. 10.1029/2022GB007478
- Pixel-level parameter optimization of a terrestrial biosphere model for improving estimation of carbon fluxes with an efficient model–data fusion method and satellite-derived LAI and GPP data R. Ma et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-6637-2022
- Modeling demographic-driven vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling in NASA GISS's Earth system model (ModelE-BiomeE v.1.0) E. Weng et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8153-2022
- Optimizing Carbon Cycle Parameters Drastically Improves Terrestrial Biosphere Model Underestimates of Dryland Mean Net CO2 Flux and its Inter‐Annual Variability K. Mahmud et al. 10.1029/2021JG006400
- Numerical Modeling of Biogeochemical Carbon Cycles in Swamp Ecosystems E. Dyukarev & S. Semenov 10.14258/izvasu(2022)4-16
- Forest productivity recovery or collapse? Model‐data integration insights on drought‐induced tipping points J. Au et al. 10.1111/gcb.16867
- Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Global Carbon Cycle Predictions: Lessons and Perspectives From 15 Years of Data Assimilation Studies With the ORCHIDEE Terrestrial Biosphere Model N. MacBean et al. 10.1029/2021GB007177
- Climate Sensitivities of Carbon Turnover Times in Soil and Vegetation: Understanding Their Effects on Forest Carbon Sequestration R. Ge et al. 10.1029/2020JG005880
- Isolating the effects of land use and functional variation on Yucatán's forest biomass under global change S. George-Chacon et al. 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1204596
- Water Stress Dominates 21st‐Century Tropical Land Carbon Uptake P. Levine et al. 10.1029/2023GB007702
- Biogeochemical Carbon Cycles Numerical Modeling in Wetland Ecosystems S. Semenov et al. 10.1134/S1995080223030307
- From Ecosystem Observation to Environmental Decision-Making: Model-Data Fusion as an Operational Tool T. Smallman et al. 10.3389/ffgc.2021.818661
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 29 Jun 2024
Short summary
Model uncertainty dominates the spread in terrestrial carbon cycle predictions. Efforts to reduce it typically involve adding processes, thereby increasing model complexity. However, if and how model performance scales with complexity is unclear. Using a suite of 16 structurally distinct carbon cycle models, we find that increased complexity only improves skill if parameters are adequately informed. Otherwise, it can degrade skill, and an intermediate-complexity model is optimal.
Model uncertainty dominates the spread in terrestrial carbon cycle predictions. Efforts to...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint