Articles | Volume 18, issue 8
Biogeosciences, 18, 2727–2754, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2727-2021
Biogeosciences, 18, 2727–2754, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2727-2021

Research article 30 Apr 2021

Research article | 30 Apr 2021

Optimal model complexity for terrestrial carbon cycle prediction

Caroline A. Famiglietti et al.

Related authors

The carbon budget of the managed grasslands of Great Britain constrained by earth observations
Vasileios Myrgiotis, Thomas Luke Smallman, and Mathew Williams
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-144,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-144, 2021
Preprint under review for BG
Short summary
Improvement of modeling plant responses to low soil moisture in JULESvn4.9 and evaluation against flux tower measurements
Anna B. Harper, Karina E. Williams, Patrick C. McGuire, Maria Carolina Duran Rojas, Debbie Hemming, Anne Verhoef, Chris Huntingford, Lucy Rowland, Toby Marthews, Cleiton Breder Eller, Camilla Mathison, Rodolfo L. B. Nobrega, Nicola Gedney, Pier Luigi Vidale, Fred Otu-Larbi, Divya Pandey, Sebastien Garrigues, Azin Wright, Darren Slevin, Martin G. De Kauwe, Eleanor Blyth, Jonas Ardö, Andrew Black, Damien Bonal, Nina Buchmann, Benoit Burban, Kathrin Fuchs, Agnès de Grandcourt, Ivan Mammarella, Lutz Merbold, Leonardo Montagnani, Yann Nouvellon, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, and Georg Wohlfahrt
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3269–3294, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3269-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3269-2021, 2021
Short summary
Global ecosystem-scale plant hydraulic traits retrieved using model–data fusion
Yanlan Liu, Nataniel M. Holtzman, and Alexandra G. Konings
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2399–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2399-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2399-2021, 2021
Short summary
Global distribution of methane emissions: a comparative inverse analysis of observations from the TROPOMI and GOSAT satellite instruments
Zhen Qu, Daniel J. Jacob, Lu Shen, Xiao Lu, Yuzhong Zhang, Tia R. Scarpelli, Hannah O. Nesser, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Joannes D. Maasakkers, A. Anthony Bloom, John R. Worden, Robert J. Parker, and Alba L. Delgado
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-309,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-309, 2021
Preprint under review for ACP
Short summary
Parameter uncertainty dominates C cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st Century
Thomas Luke Smallman, David Thomas Milodowski, Eráclito Sousa Neto, Gerbrand Koren, Jean Ometto, and Mathew Williams
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-17,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-17, 2021
Preprint under review for ESD
Short summary

Related subject area

Biogeochemistry: Modelling, Terrestrial
Simulating shrubs and their energy and carbon dioxide fluxes in Canada's Low Arctic with the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC)
Gesa Meyer, Elyn R. Humphreys, Joe R. Melton, Alex J. Cannon, and Peter M. Lafleur
Biogeosciences, 18, 3263–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3263-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3263-2021, 2021
Short summary
Competing effects of nitrogen deposition and ozone exposure on northern hemispheric terrestrial carbon uptake and storage, 1850–2099
Martina Franz and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 3219–3241, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3219-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3219-2021, 2021
Short summary
Carbonyl sulfide: comparing a mechanistic representation of the vegetation uptake in a land surface model and the leaf relative uptake approach
Fabienne Maignan, Camille Abadie, Marine Remaud, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Róisín Commane, Richard Wehr, J. Elliott Campbell, Sauveur Belviso, Stephen A. Montzka, Nina Raoult, Ulli Seibt, Yoichi P. Shiga, Nicolas Vuichard, Mary E. Whelan, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 18, 2917–2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021, 2021
Short summary
CO2 physiological effect can cause rainfall decrease as strong as large-scale deforestation in the Amazon
Gilvan Sampaio, Marília H. Shimizu, Carlos A. Guimarães-Júnior, Felipe Alexandre, Marcelo Guatura, Manoel Cardoso, Tomas F. Domingues, Anja Rammig, Celso von Randow, Luiz F. C. Rezende, and David M. Lapola
Biogeosciences, 18, 2511–2525, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2511-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2511-2021, 2021
Short summary
Plant phenology evaluation of CRESCENDO land surface models – Part 1: Start and end of the growing season
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Stefano Materia, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Emilie Joetzjer, Hanna Lee, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Taejin Park, Philippe Peylin, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 2405–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, 2021
Short summary

Cited articles

Aguilos, M., Herault, B., Burban, B., Wagner, F., and Bonal, D.: What drives long-term variations in carbon flux and balance in a tropical rainforest in French Guiana?, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 253–254, 114–123, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.02.009, 2018. 
Atkin, O. K., Bahar, N., Bloomfield, K., Griffin, K. L., Heskel, M. A., Huntingford, C., and de la Torre, A. M.: Plant Respiration: Metabolic Fluxes and Carbon Balance, edited by: Tcherkez, G. and Ghashghaie, J., Springer, Cham, Switzerland, 302 pp., 2017. 
Bacour, C., Peylin, P., MacBean, N., Rayner, P. J., Delage, F., Chevallier, F., Weiss, M., Demarty, J., Santaren, D., Baret, F., Berveiller, D., Dufrêne, E., and Prunet, P.: Joint assimilation of eddy covariance flux measurements and FAPAR products over temperate forests within a process-oriented biosphere model, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 120, 1839–1857, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG002966, 2015. 
Download
Short summary
Model uncertainty dominates the spread in terrestrial carbon cycle predictions. Efforts to reduce it typically involve adding processes, thereby increasing model complexity. However, if and how model performance scales with complexity is unclear. Using a suite of 16 structurally distinct carbon cycle models, we find that increased complexity only improves skill if parameters are adequately informed. Otherwise, it can degrade skill, and an intermediate-complexity model is optimal.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint