Articles | Volume 18, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Jul 2021
Research article |
| 06 Jul 2021
| 06 Jul 2021
Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model
Wu Ma
Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Lu Zhai
Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, United States
Alexandria Pivovaroff
Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Jacquelyn Shuman
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Terrestrial Sciences Section, Boulder, CO, United States
Polly Buotte
Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States
Junyan Ding
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Bradley Christoffersen
Department of Biology, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX, United States
Ryan Knox
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Max Moritz
UC ANR Cooperative Extension, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, United States
Rosie A. Fisher
Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique, Toulouse, France
Charles D. Koven
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Lara Kueppers
Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Chonggang Xu
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
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Cited
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Continental-scale hyperspectral tree species classification in the United States National Ecological Observatory Network S. Marconi et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113264
- High-resolution wildfire simulations reveal complexity of climate change impacts on projected burn probability for Southern California A. Dye et al. 10.1186/s42408-023-00179-2
- Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects L. Dickman et al. 10.1111/nph.18770
- Fire regimes of the Southern Appalachians may radically shift under climate change Z. Robbins et al. 10.1186/s42408-023-00231-1
- Integrating hydrological parameters in wildfire risk assessment: a machine learning approach for mapping wildfire probability M. Khodaee et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad80ad
- Plant hydraulics at the heart of plant, crops and ecosystem functions in the face of climate change J. Torres‐Ruiz et al. 10.1111/nph.19463
- Enhanced future vegetation growth with elevated carbon dioxide concentrations could increase fire activity R. Allen et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01228-7
- Globe-LFMC 2.0, an enhanced and updated dataset for live fuel moisture content research M. Yebra et al. 10.1038/s41597-024-03159-6
- Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California P. Brown et al. 10.1038/s41586-023-06444-3
- Modeling fuel moisture dynamics under climate change in Spain’s forests R. Balaguer-Romano et al. 10.1186/s42408-023-00224-0
- Synthesis and Perspectives on Disturbance Interactions, and Forest Fire Risk and Fire Severity in Central Europe L. Leonardos et al. 10.3390/fire7120470
- Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies J. Holm et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023
- Plant-water sensitivity regulates wildfire vulnerability K. Rao et al. 10.1038/s41559-021-01654-2
- Wildfire risk in a changing climate: Evaluating fire weather indices and their global patterns with CMIP6 multi-model projections Y. He et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100751
- Quantifying Forest Litter Fuel Moisture Content with Terrestrial Laser Scanning J. Batchelor et al. 10.3390/rs15061482
- Wildfire danger under changing climates in the southern Great Plains throughout the 21st century S. Fang et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112994
- Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene J. Shuman et al. 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac115
- California annual grass phenology and allometry influence ecosystem dynamics and fire regime in a vegetation demography model X. Gao et al. 10.1111/nph.20421
- Estimation of potential wildfire behavior characteristics to assess wildfire danger in southwest China using deep learning schemes R. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.120005
- California wildfire smoke contributes to a positive atmospheric temperature anomaly over the western United States J. Gomez et al. 10.5194/acp-24-6937-2024
- Drivers of California’s changing wildfires: a state-of-the-knowledge synthesis G. MacDonald et al. 10.1071/WF22155
- Fire, insect and disease‐caused tree mortalities increased in forests of greater structural diversity during drought L. Zhai et al. 10.1111/1365-2745.13830
- Conifer encroachment increases foliar moisture content in a northwestern California oak woodland J. Kane et al. 10.1071/WF22184
- A semi-mechanistic model for predicting daily variations in species-level live fuel moisture content R. Balaguer-Romano et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109022
- Plant hydraulic modelling of leaf and canopy fuel moisture content reveals increasing vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest to wildfires under extreme drought J. Ruffault et al. 10.1111/nph.18614
- Specific leaf area and vapour pressure deficit control live fuel moisture content A. Griebel et al. 10.1111/1365-2435.14271
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Continental-scale hyperspectral tree species classification in the United States National Ecological Observatory Network S. Marconi et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113264
- High-resolution wildfire simulations reveal complexity of climate change impacts on projected burn probability for Southern California A. Dye et al. 10.1186/s42408-023-00179-2
- Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects L. Dickman et al. 10.1111/nph.18770
- Fire regimes of the Southern Appalachians may radically shift under climate change Z. Robbins et al. 10.1186/s42408-023-00231-1
- Integrating hydrological parameters in wildfire risk assessment: a machine learning approach for mapping wildfire probability M. Khodaee et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad80ad
- Plant hydraulics at the heart of plant, crops and ecosystem functions in the face of climate change J. Torres‐Ruiz et al. 10.1111/nph.19463
- Enhanced future vegetation growth with elevated carbon dioxide concentrations could increase fire activity R. Allen et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01228-7
- Globe-LFMC 2.0, an enhanced and updated dataset for live fuel moisture content research M. Yebra et al. 10.1038/s41597-024-03159-6
- Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California P. Brown et al. 10.1038/s41586-023-06444-3
- Modeling fuel moisture dynamics under climate change in Spain’s forests R. Balaguer-Romano et al. 10.1186/s42408-023-00224-0
- Synthesis and Perspectives on Disturbance Interactions, and Forest Fire Risk and Fire Severity in Central Europe L. Leonardos et al. 10.3390/fire7120470
- Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies J. Holm et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023
- Plant-water sensitivity regulates wildfire vulnerability K. Rao et al. 10.1038/s41559-021-01654-2
- Wildfire risk in a changing climate: Evaluating fire weather indices and their global patterns with CMIP6 multi-model projections Y. He et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100751
- Quantifying Forest Litter Fuel Moisture Content with Terrestrial Laser Scanning J. Batchelor et al. 10.3390/rs15061482
- Wildfire danger under changing climates in the southern Great Plains throughout the 21st century S. Fang et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112994
- Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene J. Shuman et al. 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac115
- California annual grass phenology and allometry influence ecosystem dynamics and fire regime in a vegetation demography model X. Gao et al. 10.1111/nph.20421
- Estimation of potential wildfire behavior characteristics to assess wildfire danger in southwest China using deep learning schemes R. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.120005
- California wildfire smoke contributes to a positive atmospheric temperature anomaly over the western United States J. Gomez et al. 10.5194/acp-24-6937-2024
- Drivers of California’s changing wildfires: a state-of-the-knowledge synthesis G. MacDonald et al. 10.1071/WF22155
- Fire, insect and disease‐caused tree mortalities increased in forests of greater structural diversity during drought L. Zhai et al. 10.1111/1365-2745.13830
- Conifer encroachment increases foliar moisture content in a northwestern California oak woodland J. Kane et al. 10.1071/WF22184
- A semi-mechanistic model for predicting daily variations in species-level live fuel moisture content R. Balaguer-Romano et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109022
- Plant hydraulic modelling of leaf and canopy fuel moisture content reveals increasing vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest to wildfires under extreme drought J. Ruffault et al. 10.1111/nph.18614
- Specific leaf area and vapour pressure deficit control live fuel moisture content A. Griebel et al. 10.1111/1365-2435.14271
Latest update: 21 Feb 2025
Short summary
We use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate live fuel moisture dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in live fuel moisture and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.
We use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate live fuel moisture dynamics of...
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