Articles | Volume 18, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Jul 2021
Research article |
| 06 Jul 2021
| 06 Jul 2021
Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model
Wu Ma
Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Lu Zhai
Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, United States
Alexandria Pivovaroff
Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Jacquelyn Shuman
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Terrestrial Sciences Section, Boulder, CO, United States
Polly Buotte
Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States
Junyan Ding
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Bradley Christoffersen
Department of Biology, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX, United States
Ryan Knox
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Max Moritz
UC ANR Cooperative Extension, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, United States
Rosie A. Fisher
Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique, Toulouse, France
Charles D. Koven
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Lara Kueppers
Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Chonggang Xu
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Related authors
Polly C. Buotte, Charles D. Koven, Chonggang Xu, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Michael L. Goulden, Samuel Levis, Jessica Katz, Junyan Ding, Wu Ma, Zachary Robbins, and Lara M. Kueppers
Biogeosciences, 18, 4473–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4473-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4473-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an approach for ensuring the definitions of plant types in dynamic vegetation models are connected to the underlying ecological processes controlling community composition. Our approach can be applied regionally or globally. Robust resolution of community composition will allow us to use these models to address important questions related to future climate and management effects on plant community composition, structure, carbon storage, and feedbacks within the Earth system.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Benjamin Mark Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew Macdougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Seferian, Lori Sentman, Isla Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman Steinert, Abigail Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated zero emissions commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Rosie A. Fisher, Charles Koven, Ryan Knox, Lara Kueppers, and Chonggang Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4643–4671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4643-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We adapt a fire behavior and effects module for use in a size-structured vegetation demographic model to test how climate, fire regime, and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the distribution of tropical forests and grasslands. Our model captures the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining plant distribution and provides a useful tool for understanding the vulnerability of these areas under changing conditions across the tropics.
Junyan Ding, Polly Buotte, Roger Bales, Bradley Christoffersen, Rosie A. Fisher, Michael Goulden, Ryan Knox, Lara Kueppers, Jacquelyn Shuman, Chonggang Xu, and Charles D. Koven
Biogeosciences, 20, 4491–4510, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4491-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a vegetation model to investigate how the different combinations of plant rooting depths and the sensitivity of leaves and stems to drying lead to differential responses of a pine forest to drought conditions in California, USA. We found that rooting depths are the strongest control in that ecosystem. Deep roots allow trees to fully utilize the soil water during a normal year but result in prolonged depletion of soil moisture during a severe drought and hence a high tree mortality risk.
Chonggang Xu, Bradley Christoffersen, Zachary Robbins, Ryan Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Rutuja Chitra-Tarak, Martijn Slot, Kurt Solander, Lara Kueppers, Charles Koven, and Nate McDowell
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6267–6283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a plant hydrodynamic model for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-sponsored model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES). To better understand this new model system and its functionality in tropical forest ecosystems, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We identified the key parameters that affect the simulated plant hydrodynamics to guide both modeling and field campaign studies.
Nathan Alec Conroy, Jeffrey M. Heikoop, Emma Lathrop, Dea Musa, Brent D. Newman, Chonggang Xu, Rachael E. McCaully, Carli A. Arendt, Verity G. Salmon, Amy Breen, Vladimir Romanovsky, Katrina E. Bennett, Cathy J. Wilson, and Stan D. Wullschleger
The Cryosphere, 17, 3987–4006, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3987-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study combines field observations, non-parametric statistical analyses, and thermodynamic modeling to characterize the environmental causes of the spatial variability in soil pore water solute concentrations across two Arctic catchments with varying extents of permafrost. Vegetation type, soil moisture and redox conditions, weathering and hydrologic transport, and mineral solubility were all found to be the primary drivers of the existing spatial variability of some soil pore water solutes.
Lingcheng Li, Yilin Fang, Zhonghua Zheng, Mingjie Shi, Marcos Longo, Charles D. Koven, Jennifer A. Holm, Rosie A. Fisher, Nate G. McDowell, Jeffrey Chambers, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4017–4040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately modeling plant coexistence in vegetation demographic models like ELM-FATES is challenging. This study proposes a repeatable method that uses machine-learning-based surrogate models to optimize plant trait parameters in ELM-FATES. Our approach significantly improves plant coexistence modeling, thus reducing errors. It has important implications for modeling ecosystem dynamics in response to climate change.
Doaa Aboelyazeed, Chonggang Xu, Forrest M. Hoffman, Jiangtao Liu, Alex W. Jones, Chris Rackauckas, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
Biogeosciences, 20, 2671–2692, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2671-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Photosynthesis is critical for life and has been affected by the changing climate. Many parameters come into play while modeling, but traditional calibration approaches face many issues. Our framework trains coupled neural networks to provide parameters to a photosynthesis model. Using big data, we independently found parameter values that were correlated with those in the literature while giving higher correlation and reduced biases in photosynthesis rates.
Yilin Fang, L. Ruby Leung, Charles D. Koven, Gautam Bisht, Matteo Detto, Yanyan Cheng, Nate McDowell, Helene Muller-Landau, S. Joseph Wright, and Jeffrey Q. Chambers
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7879–7901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7879-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a model that integrates an Earth system model with a three-dimensional hydrology model to explicitly resolve hillslope topography and water flow underneath the land surface to understand how local-scale hydrologic processes modulate vegetation along water availability gradients. Our coupled model can be used to improve the understanding of the diverse impact of local heterogeneity and water flux on nutrient availability and plant communities.
Yilin Fang, L. Ruby Leung, Ryan Knox, Charlie Koven, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6385–6398, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6385-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accounting for water movement in the soil and water transport within the plant is important for plant growth in Earth system modeling. We implemented different numerical approaches for a plant hydrodynamic model and compared their impacts on the simulated aboveground biomass (AGB) at single points and globally. We found care should be taken when discretizing the number of soil layers for numerical simulations as it can significantly affect AGB if accuracy and computational costs are of concern.
Charles D. Koven, Vivek K. Arora, Patricia Cadule, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, David M. Lawrence, Jared Lewis, Keith Lindsay, Sabine Mathesius, Malte Meinshausen, Michael Mills, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Neil C. Swart, William R. Wieder, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 885–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of contrasting scenarios to the year 2300 using six models that include both climate and carbon cycle dynamics. One scenario assumes very high emissions, while the second assumes a peak in emissions, followed by rapid declines to net negative emissions. We show that the models generally agree that warming is roughly proportional to carbon emissions but that many other aspects of the model projections differ.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Charles D. Koven, Florent Brient, Ben B. B. Booth, Rosie A. Fisher, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 899–918, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Emergent constraints promise a pathway to the reduction in climate projection uncertainties by exploiting ensemble relationships between observable quantities and unknown climate response parameters. This study considers the robustness of these relationships in light of biases and common simplifications that may be present in the original ensemble of climate simulations. We propose a classification scheme for constraints and a number of practical case studies.
Polly C. Buotte, Charles D. Koven, Chonggang Xu, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Michael L. Goulden, Samuel Levis, Jessica Katz, Junyan Ding, Wu Ma, Zachary Robbins, and Lara M. Kueppers
Biogeosciences, 18, 4473–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4473-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4473-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an approach for ensuring the definitions of plant types in dynamic vegetation models are connected to the underlying ecological processes controlling community composition. Our approach can be applied regionally or globally. Robust resolution of community composition will allow us to use these models to address important questions related to future climate and management effects on plant community composition, structure, carbon storage, and feedbacks within the Earth system.
Robinson I. Negrón-Juárez, Jennifer A. Holm, Boris Faybishenko, Daniel Magnabosco-Marra, Rosie A. Fisher, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Alessandro C. de Araujo, William J. Riley, and Jeffrey Q. Chambers
Biogeosciences, 17, 6185–6205, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6185-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6185-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The temporal variability in the Landsat satellite near-infrared (NIR) band captured the dynamics of forest regrowth after disturbances in Central Amazon. This variability was represented by the dynamics of forest regrowth after disturbances were properly represented by the ELM-FATES model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM)).
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Maoyi Huang, Yi Xu, Marcos Longo, Michael Keller, Ryan G. Knox, Charles D. Koven, and Rosie A. Fisher
Biogeosciences, 17, 4999–5023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4999-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4999-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) is enhanced to mimic the ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical processes following a logging event. The model can specify the timing and aerial extent of logging events; determine the survivorship of cohorts in the disturbed forest; and modifying the biomass, coarse woody debris, and litter pools. This study lays the foundation to simulate land use change and forest degradation in FATES as part of an Earth system model.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Charles D. Koven, Ryan G. Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Stuart J. Davies, Matteo Detto, Michael C. Dietze, Boris Faybishenko, Jennifer Holm, Maoyi Huang, Marlies Kovenock, Lara M. Kueppers, Gregory Lemieux, Elias Massoud, Nathan G. McDowell, Helene C. Muller-Landau, Jessica F. Needham, Richard J. Norby, Thomas Powell, Alistair Rogers, Shawn P. Serbin, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Charuleka Varadharajan, Anthony P. Walker, S. Joseph Wright, and Chonggang Xu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3017–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical forests play a crucial role in governing climate feedbacks, and are incredibly diverse ecosystems, yet most Earth system models do not take into account the diversity of plant traits in these forests and how this diversity may govern feedbacks. We present an approach to represent diverse competing plant types within Earth system models, test this approach at a tropical forest site, and explore how the representation of disturbance and competition governs traits of the forest community.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Kurt C. Solander, Brent D. Newman, Alessandro Carioca de Araujo, Holly R. Barnard, Z. Carter Berry, Damien Bonal, Mario Bretfeld, Benoit Burban, Luiz Antonio Candido, Rolando Célleri, Jeffery Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Matteo Detto, Wouter A. Dorigo, Brent E. Ewers, Savio José Filgueiras Ferreira, Alexander Knohl, L. Ruby Leung, Nate G. McDowell, Gretchen R. Miller, Maria Terezinha Ferreira Monteiro, Georgianne W. Moore, Robinson Negron-Juarez, Scott R. Saleska, Christian Stiegler, Javier Tomasella, and Chonggang Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2303-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2303-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the soil moisture response in the humid tropics to El Niño during the three most recent super El Niño events. Our estimates are compared to in situ soil moisture estimates that span five continents. We find the strongest and most consistent soil moisture decreases in the Amazon and maritime southeastern Asia, while the most consistent increases occur over eastern Africa. Our results can be used to improve estimates of soil moisture in tropical ecohydrology models at multiple scales.
Christian G. Andresen, David M. Lawrence, Cathy J. Wilson, A. David McGuire, Charles Koven, Kevin Schaefer, Elchin Jafarov, Shushi Peng, Xiaodong Chen, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Duoying Ji, Guangsheng Chen, Daniel Hayes, and Wenxin Zhang
The Cryosphere, 14, 445–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases in the net water balance driven by climate change. Drying was generally associated with increases of active-layer depth and permafrost thaw in a warming climate. However, models lack important mechanisms such as thermokarst and soil subsidence that will change the hydrological regime and add to the large uncertainty in the future Arctic hydrological state and the associated permafrost carbon feedback.
Chris D. Jones, Thomas L. Frölicher, Charles Koven, Andrew H. MacDougall, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Nathan P. Gillett, Tatiana Ilyina, Malte Meinshausen, Nadine Mengis, Roland Séférian, Michael Eby, and Friedrich A. Burger
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4375–4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming is simply related to the total emission of CO2 allowing us to define a carbon budget. However, information on the Zero Emissions Commitment is a key missing link to assess remaining carbon budgets to achieve the climate targets of the Paris Agreement. It was therefore decided that a small targeted MIP activity to fill this knowledge gap would be extremely valuable. This article formalises the experimental design alongside the other CMIP6 documentation papers.
Marcos Longo, Ryan G. Knox, David M. Medvigy, Naomi M. Levine, Michael C. Dietze, Yeonjoo Kim, Abigail L. S. Swann, Ke Zhang, Christine R. Rollinson, Rafael L. Bras, Steven C. Wofsy, and Paul R. Moorcroft
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4309–4346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4309-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4309-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper describes the Ecosystem Demography model. This computer program calculates how plants and ground exchange heat, water, and carbon with the air, and how plants grow, reproduce and die in different climates. Most models simplify forests to an average big tree. We consider that tall, deep-rooted trees get more light and water than small plants, and that some plants can with shade and drought. This diversity helps us to better explain how plants live and interact with the atmosphere.
Marcos Longo, Ryan G. Knox, Naomi M. Levine, Abigail L. S. Swann, David M. Medvigy, Michael C. Dietze, Yeonjoo Kim, Ke Zhang, Damien Bonal, Benoit Burban, Plínio B. Camargo, Matthew N. Hayek, Scott R. Saleska, Rodrigo da Silva, Rafael L. Bras, Steven C. Wofsy, and Paul R. Moorcroft
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4347–4374, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4347-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Ecosystem Demography model calculates the fluxes of heat, water, and carbon between plants and ground and the air, and the life cycle of plants in different climates. To test if our calculations were reasonable, we compared our results with field and satellite measurements. Our model predicts well the extent of the Amazon forest, how much light forests absorb, and how much water forests release to the air. However, it must improve the tree growth rates and how fast dead plants decompose.
Elias C. Massoud, Chonggang Xu, Rosie A. Fisher, Ryan G. Knox, Anthony P. Walker, Shawn P. Serbin, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Jennifer A. Holm, Lara M. Kueppers, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Liang Wei, Daniel J. Johnson, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Charlie D. Koven, Nate G. McDowell, and Jasper A. Vrugt
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4133–4164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to understand behaviors of a demographic vegetation model within a land surface model. By running the model 5000 times with changing input parameter values, we found that (1) the photosynthetic capacity controls carbon fluxes, (2) the allometry is important for tree growth, and (3) the targeted carbon storage is important for tree survival. These results can provide guidance on improved model parameterization for a better fit to observations.
Jennifer W. Harden, Jonathan A. O'Donnell, Katherine A. Heckman, Benjamin N. Sulman, Charles D. Koven, Chien-Lu Ping, and Gary J. Michaelson
SOIL Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2018-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2018-41, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We examined changes in soil carbon (C) associated with permafrost thaw, warming, and ecosystem shifts using a space-for-time study. Soil C turnover was estimated for soil C fractions using soil C and radiocarbon data. Observations informed a simple model to track soil C change over time. Both losses and gains of soil C occur in the profile due to shifts in C among density-separated fractions. Thawing initially resulted in C gains to mineral soil and eventually C losses as warming persists.
Anja Rammig, Jens Heinke, Florian Hofhansl, Hans Verbeeck, Timothy R. Baker, Bradley Christoffersen, Philippe Ciais, Hannes De Deurwaerder, Katrin Fleischer, David Galbraith, Matthieu Guimberteau, Andreas Huth, Michelle Johnson, Bart Krujit, Fanny Langerwisch, Patrick Meir, Phillip Papastefanou, Gilvan Sampaio, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso von Randow, Christian Zang, and Edna Rödig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5203–5215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a generic approach for a pixel-to-point comparison applicable for evaluation of models and remote-sensing products. We provide statistical measures accounting for the uncertainty in ecosystem variables. We demonstrate our approach by comparing simulated values of aboveground biomass, woody productivity and residence time of woody biomass from four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) with measured inventory data from permanent plots in the Amazon rainforest.
Ashehad A. Ali, Yuanchao Fan, Marife D. Corre, Martyna M. Kotowska, Evelyn Hassler, Fernando E. Moyano, Christian Stiegler, Alexander Röll, Ana Meijide, Andre Ringeler, Christoph Leuschner, Tania June, Suria Tarigan, Holger Kreft, Dirk Hölscher, Chonggang Xu, Charles D. Koven, Rosie Fisher, Edzo Veldkamp, and Alexander Knohl
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-236, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We used carbon-use and water-use related datasets of small-holder rubber plantations from Jambi province, Indonesia to develop and calibrate a rubber plant functional type for the Community Land Model (CLM-rubber). Increased sensitivity of stomata to soil water stress and enhanced respiration costs enabled the model to capture the magnitude of transpiration and leaf area index. Including temporal variations in leaf life span enabled the model to better capture the seasonality of leaf litterfall.
Xiyan Xu, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, and Gensuo Jia
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-257, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Nicholas C. Parazoo, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Vladimir Romanovsky, and Charles E. Miller
The Cryosphere, 12, 123–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-123-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-123-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon models suggest the permafrost carbon feedback (soil carbon emissions from permafrost thaw) acts as a slow, unobservable leak. We investigate if permafrost temperature provides an observable signal to detect feedbacks. We find a slow carbon feedback in warm sub-Arctic permafrost soils, but potentially rapid feedback in cold Arctic permafrost. This is surprising since the cold permafrost region is dominated by tundra and underlain by deep, cold permafrost thought impervious to such changes.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Henrique F. Duarte, Brett M. Raczka, Daniel M. Ricciuto, John C. Lin, Charles D. Koven, Peter E. Thornton, David R. Bowling, Chun-Ta Lai, Kenneth J. Bible, and James R. Ehleringer
Biogeosciences, 14, 4315–4340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4315-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4315-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) against observations at an old-growth coniferous forest site that is subjected to water stress each summer. We found that, after calibration, CLM was able to reasonably simulate the observed fluxes of energy and carbon, carbon stocks, carbon isotope ratios, and ecosystem response to water stress. This study demonstrates that carbon isotopes can expose structural weaknesses in CLM and provide a key constraint that may guide future model development.
Sina Muster, Kurt Roth, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Annett Bartsch, Anne Morgenstern, Guido Grosse, Benjamin Jones, A. Britta K. Sannel, Ylva Sjöberg, Frank Günther, Christian Andresen, Alexandra Veremeeva, Prajna R. Lindgren, Frédéric Bouchard, Mark J. Lara, Daniel Fortier, Simon Charbonneau, Tarmo A. Virtanen, Gustaf Hugelius, Juri Palmtag, Matthias B. Siewert, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, and Julia Boike
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 317–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Waterbodies are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. Most waterbodies are ponds with a surface area smaller than 100 x 100 m. The Permafrost Region Pond and Lake Database (PeRL) for the first time maps ponds as small as 10 x 10 m. PeRL maps can be used to document changes both by comparing them to historical and future imagery. The distribution of waterbodies in the Arctic is important to know in order to manage resources in the Arctic and to improve climate predictions in the Arctic.
Kathrin M. Keller, Sebastian Lienert, Anil Bozbiyik, Thomas F. Stocker, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), David C. Frank, Stefan Klesse, Charles D. Koven, Markus Leuenberger, William J. Riley, Matthias Saurer, Rolf Siegwolf, Rosemarie B. Weigt, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 14, 2641–2673, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, 2017
Andrew G. Slater, David M. Lawrence, and Charles D. Koven
The Cryosphere, 11, 989–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-989-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-989-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work defines a metric for evaluation of a specific model snow process, namely, heat transfer through snow into soil. Heat transfer through snow regulates the difference in air temperature versus soil temperature. Accurate representation of the snow heat transfer process is critically important for accurate representation of the current and future state of permafrost. Utilizing this metric, we can clearly identify models that can and cannot reasonably represent snow heat transfer.
Bradley O. Christoffersen, Manuel Gloor, Sophie Fauset, Nikolaos M. Fyllas, David R. Galbraith, Timothy R. Baker, Bart Kruijt, Lucy Rowland, Rosie A. Fisher, Oliver J. Binks, Sanna Sevanto, Chonggang Xu, Steven Jansen, Brendan Choat, Maurizio Mencuccini, Nate G. McDowell, and Patrick Meir
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4227–4255, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4227-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4227-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a plant hydraulics model for tropical forests based on established plant physiological theory, and parameterized it by conducting a pantropical hydraulic trait survey. We show that a substantial amount of trait diversity can be represented in the model by a reduced set of trait dimensions. The fully parameterized model is able capture tree-level variation in water status and improves simulations of total ecosystem transpiration, showing how to incorporate hydraulic traits in models.
Brett Raczka, Henrique F. Duarte, Charles D. Koven, Daniel Ricciuto, Peter E. Thornton, John C. Lin, and David R. Bowling
Biogeosciences, 13, 5183–5204, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5183-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5183-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We use carbon isotopes of CO2 to improve the performance of a land surface model, a component with earth system climate models. We found that isotope observations can provide important information related to the exchange of carbon and water from vegetation driven by environmental stress from low atmospheric moisture and nitrogen limitation. It follows that isotopes have a unique potential to improve model performance and provide insight into land surface model development.
Fang Zhao, Ning Zeng, Ghassem Asrar, Pierre Friedlingstein, Akihiko Ito, Atul Jain, Eugenia Kalnay, Etsushi Kato, Charles D. Koven, Ben Poulter, Rashid Rafique, Stephen Sitch, Shijie Shu, Beni Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, and Sonke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 13, 5121–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The increasing seasonality of atmospheric CO2 is strongly linked with enhanced land vegetation activities in the last 5 decades, for which the importance of increasing CO2, climate and land use/cover change was evaluated in single model studies (Zeng et al., 2014; Forkel et al., 2016). Here we examine the relative importance of these factors in multiple models. Our results highlight models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying regional dynamics.
Xiyan Xu, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, Dave P. Billesbach, Rachel Y.-W. Chang, Róisín Commane, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Sean Hartery, Yoshinobu Harazono, Hiroki Iwata, Kyle C. McDonald, Charles E. Miller, Walter C. Oechel, Benjamin Poulter, Naama Raz-Yaseef, Colm Sweeney, Margaret Torn, Steven C. Wofsy, Zhen Zhang, and Donatella Zona
Biogeosciences, 13, 5043–5056, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5043-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5043-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Wetlands are the largest global natural methane source. Peat-rich bogs and fens lying between 50°N and 70°N contribute 10–30% to this source. The predictive capability of the seasonal methane cycle can directly affect the estimation of global methane budget. We present multiscale methane seasonal emission by observations and modeling and find that the uncertainties in predicting the seasonal methane emissions are from the wetland extent, cold-season CH4 production and CH4 transport processes.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
A. A. Ali, C. Xu, A. Rogers, R. A. Fisher, S. D. Wullschleger, E. C. Massoud, J. A. Vrugt, J. D. Muss, N. G. McDowell, J. B. Fisher, P. B. Reich, and C. J. Wilson
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 587–606, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-587-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-587-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a mechanistic model of leaf utilization of nitrogen for assimilation (LUNA V1.0) to predict the photosynthetic capacities at the global scale based on the optimization of key leaf-level metabolic processes. LUNA model predicts that future climatic changes would mostly affect plant photosynthetic capabilities in high-latitude regions and that Earth system models using fixed photosynthetic capabilities are likely to substantially overestimate future global photosynthesis.
W. Wang, A. Rinke, J. C. Moore, X. Cui, D. Ji, Q. Li, N. Zhang, C. Wang, S. Zhang, D. M. Lawrence, A. D. McGuire, W. Zhang, C. Delire, C. Koven, K. Saito, A. MacDougall, E. Burke, and B. Decharme
The Cryosphere, 10, 287–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We use a model-ensemble approach for simulating permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. We identify the uncertainties across models (state-of-the-art land surface models) and across methods (most commonly used methods to define permafrost).
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
Q. Zhu, W. J. Riley, J. Tang, and C. D. Koven
Biogeosciences, 13, 341–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-341-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-341-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Here we develop, calibrate, and test a nutrient competition model that accounts for multiple soil nutrients interacting with multiple biotic and abiotic consumers based on enzyme kinetics theory. Our model provides an ecologically consistent representation of nutrient competition appropriate for land biogeochemical models integrated in Earth system models.
G. Murray-Tortarolo, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, V. J. Jaramillo, F. Murguía-Flores, A. Anav, Y. Liu, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, A. Harper, A. Jain, E. Kato, C. Koven, B. Poulter, B. D. Stocker, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 13, 223–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico for three different time periods: past (20th century), present (2000-2005) and future (2006-2100). We used different available products to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country. Contrary to other current estimates, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink and this is likely to continue in the next century (unless the most extreme climate-change scenarios are reached).
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
R. A. Fisher, S. Muszala, M. Verteinstein, P. Lawrence, C. Xu, N. G. McDowell, R. G. Knox, C. Koven, J. Holm, B. M. Rogers, A. Spessa, D. Lawrence, and G. Bonan
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3593–3619, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting the distribution of vegetation under novel climates is important, both to understand how climate change will impact ecosystem services, but also to understand how vegetation changes might affect the carbon, energy and water cycles. Historically, predictions have been heavily dependent upon observations of existing vegetation boundaries. In this paper, we attempt to predict ecosystem boundaries from the ``bottom up'', and illustrate the complexities and promise of this approach.
C. D. Koven, J. Q. Chambers, K. Georgiou, R. Knox, R. Negron-Juarez, W. J. Riley, V. K. Arora, V. Brovkin, P. Friedlingstein, and C. D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 12, 5211–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Terrestrial carbon feedbacks are a large uncertainty in climate change. We separate modeled feedback responses into those governed by changed carbon inputs (productivity) and changed outputs (turnover). The disaggregated responses show that both are important in controlling inter-model uncertainty. Interactions between productivity and turnover are also important, and research must focus on these interactions for more accurate projections of carbon cycle feedbacks.
M. A. Rawlins, A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
L. Rowland, A. Harper, B. O. Christoffersen, D. R. Galbraith, H. M. A. Imbuzeiro, T. L. Powell, C. Doughty, N. M. Levine, Y. Malhi, S. R. Saleska, P. R. Moorcroft, P. Meir, and M. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1097–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1097-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1097-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the capability of five vegetation models to simulate the response of forest productivity to changes in temperature and drought, using data collected from an Amazonian forest. This study concludes that model consistencies in the responses of net canopy carbon production to temperature and precipitation change were the result of inconsistently modelled leaf-scale process responses and substantial variation in modelled leaf area responses.
R. G. Knox, M. Longo, A. L. S. Swann, K. Zhang, N. M. Levine, P. R. Moorcroft, and R. L. Bras
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 241–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-241-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-241-2015, 2015
E. Joetzjer, C. Delire, H. Douville, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, R. Fisher, B. Christoffersen, J. C. Calvet, A. C. L. da Costa, L. V. Ferreira, and P. Meir
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2933–2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2933-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2933-2014, 2014
G. Hugelius, J. Strauss, S. Zubrzycki, J. W. Harden, E. A. G. Schuur, C.-L. Ping, L. Schirrmeister, G. Grosse, G. J. Michaelson, C. D. Koven, J. A. O'Donnell, B. Elberling, U. Mishra, P. Camill, Z. Yu, J. Palmtag, and P. Kuhry
Biogeosciences, 11, 6573–6593, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an updated estimate of organic carbon stored in the northern permafrost region. The study includes estimates for carbon in soils (0 to 3 m depth) and deeper sediments in river deltas and the Yedoma region. We find that field data is still scarce from many regions. Total estimated carbon storage is ~1300 Pg with an uncertainty range of between 1100 and 1500 Pg. Around 800 Pg carbon is perennially frozen, equivalent to all carbon dioxide currently in the Earth's atmosphere.
C. Le Quéré, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, R. A. Houghton, G. Marland, R. Moriarty, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, S. C. Doney, A. Harper, I. Harris, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, S. D. Jones, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Körtzinger, C. Koven, N. Lefèvre, F. Maignan, A. Omar, T. Ono, G.-H. Park, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. Schwinger, J. Segschneider, B. D. Stocker, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, S. van Heuven, N. Viovy, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and S. Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, 2014
G. Hugelius, J. G. Bockheim, P. Camill, B. Elberling, G. Grosse, J. W. Harden, K. Johnson, T. Jorgenson, C. D. Koven, P. Kuhry, G. Michaelson, U. Mishra, J. Palmtag, C.-L. Ping, J. O'Donnell, L. Schirrmeister, E. A. G. Schuur, Y. Sheng, L. C. Smith, J. Strauss, and Z. Yu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 393–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-393-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-393-2013, 2013
R. G. Knox, M. Longo, A. L. S. Swann, K. Zhang, N. M. Levine, P. R. Moorcroft, and R. L. Bras
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-15295-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-15295-2013, 2013
Preprint withdrawn
C. D. Koven, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, J. Y. Tang, M. S. Torn, W. D. Collins, G. B. Bonan, D. M. Lawrence, and S. C. Swenson
Biogeosciences, 10, 7109–7131, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7109-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7109-2013, 2013
J. Y. Tang, W. J. Riley, C. D. Koven, and Z. M. Subin
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 127–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-127-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-127-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
Consistency of global carbon budget between concentration- and emission-driven historical experiments simulated by CMIP6 Earth system models and suggestions for improved simulation of CO2 concentration
Selecting allometric equations to estimate forest biomass from plot- rather than individual-level predictive performance
Impact of winter warming on CO2 fluxes in evergreen needleleaf forests
Effects of pH/pCO2 fluctuations on photosynthesis and fatty acid composition of two marine diatoms, with reference to consequences of coastal acidification
Long-term impacts of global temperature stabilization and overshoot on exploited marine species
Modelling ozone-induced changes in wheat amino acids and protein quality using a process-based crop model
Toward more robust net primary production projections in the North Atlantic Ocean
Assessment framework to predict sensitivity of marine calcifiers to ocean alkalinity enhancement – identification of biological thresholds and importance of precautionary principle
Review and syntheses: Ocean alkalinity enhancement and carbon dioxide removal through marine enhanced rock weathering using olivine
Particle fluxes by subtropical pelagic communities under ocean alkalinity enhancement
Responses of field-grown maize to different soil types, water regimes, and contrasting vapor pressure deficit
Effect of the 2022 summer drought across forest types in Europe
Effect of terrestrial nutrient limitation on the estimation of the remaining carbon budget
Projected changes in forest fire season, the number of fires, and burnt area in Fennoscandia by 2100
New ozone–nitrogen model shows early senescence onset is the primary cause of ozone-induced reduction in grain quality of wheat
Ocean alkalinity enhancement approaches and the predictability of runaway precipitation processes: results of an experimental study to determine critical alkalinity ranges for safe and sustainable application scenarios
Variations of polyphenols and carbohydrates of Emiliania huxleyi grown under simulated ocean acidification conditions
Assessing the lifetime of anthropogenic CO2 and its sensitivity to different carbon cycle processes
Foliar nutrient uptake from dust sustains plant nutrition
Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion
The biological and preformed carbon pumps in perpetually slower and warmer oceans
The Effectiveness of Agricultural Carbon Dioxide Removal using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model
The Southern Ocean as the climate's freight train – driving ongoing global warming under zero-emission scenarios with ACCESS-ESM1.5
Mapping the future afforestation distribution of China constrained by a national afforestation plan and climate change
Southern Ocean phytoplankton under climate change: a shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down control
Coherency and time lag analyses between MODIS vegetation indices and climate across forests and grasslands in the European temperate zone
Direct foliar phosphorus uptake from wildfire ash
Disentangling future effects of climate change and forest disturbance on vegetation composition and land-surface properties of the boreal forest
The effect of forest cover changes on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015
Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized simulation and a scenario simulation of negative emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the increase in ocean acidity extremes in the northeastern Pacific
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability
The response of wildfire regimes to Last Glacial Maximum carbon dioxide and climate
Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming
Alkalinity biases in CMIP6 Earth system models and implications for simulated CO2 drawdown via artificial alkalinity enhancement
Experiments of the efficacy of tree ring blue intensity as a climate proxy in central and western China
Burned area and carbon emissions across northwestern boreal North America from 2001–2019
Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions
The potential of an increased deciduous forest fraction to mitigate the effects of heat extremes in Europe
Ideas and perspectives: Alleviation of functional limitations by soil organisms is key to climate feedbacks from arctic soils
A comparison of the climate and carbon cycle effects of carbon removal by afforestation and an equivalent reduction in fossil fuel emissions
Stability of alkalinity in ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches – consequences for durability of CO2 storage
Ideas and perspectives: Land–ocean connectivity through groundwater
Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections
Reconciling different approaches to quantifying land surface temperature impacts of afforestation using satellite observations
Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections
Reviews and syntheses: A framework to observe, understand and project ecosystem response to environmental change in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean
Acidification impacts and acclimation potential of Caribbean benthic foraminifera assemblages in naturally discharging low-pH water
Monitoring vegetation condition using microwave remote sensing: the standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI)
Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
Biogeosciences, 22, 1447–1473, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations (CO2 concentration- and emission-driven experiments). We successfully identified problems with regard to the global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues with regard to land use change CO2 emissions that should be solved in the latest generation of models.
Nicolas Picard, Noël Fonton, Faustin Boyemba Bosela, Adeline Fayolle, Joël Loumeto, Gabriel Ngua Ayecaba, Bonaventure Sonké, Olga Diane Yongo Bombo, Hervé Martial Maïdou, and Alfred Ngomanda
Biogeosciences, 22, 1413–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1413-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1413-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Allometric equations predict tree biomass and are crucial for estimating forest carbon storage, thus assessing the role of forests in climate change mitigation. Usually, these equations are selected based on tree-level predictive performance. However, we evaluated the model performance at plot and forest levels, finding it varies with plot size. This has significant implications for reducing uncertainty in biomass estimates at these levels.
Mana Gharun, Ankit Shekhar, Lukas Hörtnagl, Luana Krebs, Nicola Arriga, Mirco Migliavacca, Marilyn Roland, Bert Gielen, Leonardo Montagnani, Enrico Tomelleri, Ladislav Šigut, Matthias Peichl, Peng Zhao, Marius Schmidt, Thomas Grünwald, Mika Korkiakoski, Annalea Lohila, and Nina Buchmann
Biogeosciences, 22, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1393-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1393-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of winter warming on forest CO2 fluxes has rarely been investigated. We tested the effect of the warm winter of 2020 on the forest CO2 fluxes across 14 sites in Europe and found that the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) across most sites declined during the warm winter due to increased respiration fluxes.
Yu Shang, Jingmin Qiu, Yuxi Weng, Xin Wang, Di Zhang, Yuwei Zhou, Juntian Xu, and Futian Li
Biogeosciences, 22, 1203–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1203-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1203-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Research on the influences of dynamic pH on the marine ecosystem is still in its infancy. We manipulated the culturing pH to simulate pH fluctuation and found lower pH could increase eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid production with unaltered growth and photosynthesis in two marine diatoms. It is important to consider pH variation for more accurate predictions regarding the consequences of acidification in coastal waters.
Anne L. Morée, Fabrice Lacroix, William W. L. Cheung, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 22, 1115–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using novel Earth system model simulations and applying the Aerobic Growth Index, we show that only about half of the habitat loss for marine species is realized when temperature stabilization is initially reached. The maximum habitat loss happens over a century after peak warming in a temperature overshoot scenario peaking at 2 °C before stabilizing at 1.5 °C. We also emphasize that species adaptation may be key in mitigating the long-term impacts of temperature stabilization and overshoot.
Jo Cook, Durgesh Singh Yadav, Felicity Hayes, Nathan Booth, Sam Bland, Pritha Pande, Samarthia Thankappan, and Lisa Emberson
Biogeosciences, 22, 1035–1056, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1035-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1035-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone (O3) pollution reduces wheat yields and quality in India, affecting amino acids essential for nutrition, like lysine and methionine. Here, we improve the DO3SE-CropN model to simulate wheat’s protective processes against O3 and their impact on protein and amino acid concentrations. While the model captures O3-induced yield losses, it underestimates amino acid reductions. Further research is needed to refine the model, enabling future risk assessments of O3's impact on yields and nutrition.
Stéphane Doléac, Marina Lévy, Roy El Hourany, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 22, 841–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-841-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-841-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The marine biogeochemistry components of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models vary widely in their process representations. Using an innovative bioregionalization of the North Atlantic, we reveal that this model diversity largely drives the divergence in net primary production projections under a high-emission scenario. The identification of the most mechanistically realistic models allows for a substantial reduction in projection uncertainty.
Nina Bednaršek, Hanna van de Mortel, Greg Pelletier, Marisol García-Reyes, Richard A. Feely, and Andrew G. Dickson
Biogeosciences, 22, 473–498, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-473-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The environmental impacts of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) are unknown. Our synthesis, based on 68 collected studies with 84 unique species, shows that 35 % of species respond positively, 26 % respond negatively, and 39 % show a neutral response to alkalinity addition. Biological thresholds were found from 50 to 500 µmol kg−1 NaOH addition. A precautionary approach is warranted to avoid potential risks, while current regulatory framework needs improvements to assure safe biological limits.
Luna J. J. Geerts, Astrid Hylén, and Filip J. R. Meysman
Biogeosciences, 22, 355–384, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-355-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-355-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Marine enhanced rock weathering (mERW) with olivine is a promising method for capturing CO2 from the atmosphere, yet studies in field conditions are lacking. We bridge the gap between theoretical studies and the real-world environment by estimating the predictability of mERW parameters and identifying aspects to consider when applying mERW. A major source of uncertainty is the lack of experimental studies with sediment, which can heavily influence the speed and efficiency of CO2 drawdown.
Philipp Suessle, Jan Taucher, Silvan Urs Goldenberg, Moritz Baumann, Kristian Spilling, Andrea Noche-Ferreira, Mari Vanharanta, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 22, 71–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-71-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-71-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a negative emission technology which may alter marine communities and the particle export they drive. Here, impacts of carbonate-based OAE on the flux and attenuation of sinking particles in an oligotrophic plankton community are presented. Whilst biological parameters remained unaffected, abiotic carbonate precipitation occurred. Among counteracting OAE’s efficiency, it influenced mineral ballasting and particle sinking velocities, requiring monitoring.
Thuy Huu Nguyen, Thomas Gaiser, Jan Vanderborght, Andrea Schnepf, Felix Bauer, Anja Klotzsche, Lena Lärm, Hubert Hüging, and Frank Ewert
Biogeosciences, 21, 5495–5515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Leaf water potential was at certain thresholds, depending on soil type, water treatment, and weather conditions. In rainfed plots, the lower water availability in the stony soil resulted in fewer roots with a higher root tissue conductance than the silty soil. In the silty soil, higher stress in the rainfed soil led to more roots with a lower root tissue conductance than in the irrigated plot. Crop responses to water stress can be opposite, depending on soil water conditions that are compared.
Mana Gharun, Ankit Shekhar, Jingfeng Xiao, Xing Li, and Nina Buchmann
Biogeosciences, 21, 5481–5494, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2022, Europe's forests faced unprecedented dry conditions. Our study aimed to understand how different forest types respond to extreme drought. Using meteorological data and satellite imagery, we compared 2022 with two previous extreme years, 2003 and 2018. Despite less severe drought in 2022, forests showed a 30 % greater decline in photosynthesis compared to 2018 and 60 % more than 2003. This suggests an alarming level of vulnerability of forests across Europe to more frequent droughts.
Makcim L. De Sisto and Andrew H. MacDougall
Biogeosciences, 21, 4853–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4853-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4853-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The remaining carbon budget (RCB) represents the allowable future CO2 emissions before a temperature target is reached. Understanding the uncertainty in the RCB is critical for effective climate regulation and policy-making. One major source of uncertainty is the representation of the carbon cycle in Earth system models. We assessed how nutrient limitation affects the estimation of the RCB. We found a reduction in the estimated RCB when nutrient limitation is taken into account.
Outi Kinnunen, Leif Backman, Juha Aalto, Tuula Aalto, and Tiina Markkanen
Biogeosciences, 21, 4739–4763, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4739-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4739-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase the risk of forest fires. Ecosystem process model simulations are used to project changes in fire occurrence in Fennoscandia under six climate projections. The findings suggest a longer fire season, more fires, and an increase in burnt area towards the end of the century.
Jo Cook, Clare Brewster, Felicity Hayes, Nathan Booth, Sam Bland, Pritha Pande, Samarthia Thankappan, Håkan Pleijel, and Lisa Emberson
Biogeosciences, 21, 4809–4835, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
At ground level, the air pollutant ozone (O3) damages wheat yield and quality. We modified the DO3SE-Crop model to simulate O3 effects on wheat quality and identified onset of leaf death as the key process affecting wheat quality upon O3 exposure. This aligns with expectations, as the onset of leaf death aids nutrient transfer from leaves to grains. Breeders should prioritize wheat varieties resistant to protein loss from delayed leaf death, to maintain yield and quality under O3 exposure.
Niels Suitner, Giulia Faucher, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Charly A. Moras, Ulf Riebesell, and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 21, 4587–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies described the precipitation of carbonates as a result of alkalinity enhancement in seawater, which could adversely affect the carbon sequestration potential of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches. By conducting experiments in natural seawater, this study observed uniform patterns during the triggered runaway carbonate precipitation, which allow the prediction of safe and efficient local application levels of OAE scenarios.
Milagros Rico, Paula Santiago-Díaz, Guillermo Samperio-Ramos, Melchor González-Dávila, and Juana Magdalena Santana-Casiano
Biogeosciences, 21, 4381–4394, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in pH generate stress conditions, either because high pH drastically decreases the availability of trace metals such as Fe(II), a restrictive element for primary productivity, or because reactive oxygen species are increased with low pH. The metabolic functions and composition of microalgae can be affected. These modifications in metabolites are potential factors leading to readjustments in phytoplankton community structure and diversity and possible alteration in marine ecosystems.
Christine Kaufhold, Matteo Willeit, Bo Liu, and Andrey Ganopolski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2976, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study simulates long-term future climate scenarios to examine how long CO2 emissions will persist in the atmosphere. It shows that the effectiveness of carbon removal processes varies with the amount emitted. The removal of CO2 through silicate weathering is faster than previously thought, leading to a quicker reduction over time. The combined behaviour of different carbon cycle processes emphasizes the need to include all of them in models, as to better predict long-term atmospheric CO2.
Anton Lokshin, Daniel Palchan, Elnatan Golan, Ran Erel, Daniele Andronico, and Avner Gross
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2531, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores how chickpea plants can absorb essential nutrients like phosphorus, iron, and nickel directly from dust deposited on their leaves, in addition to uptake through their roots. This process was particularly effective under higher levels of atmospheric CO2, leading to increased plant growth. By using Nd isotopic tools, we traced the nutrients from dust and found that certain leaf traits enhance this uptake. This discovery may become increasingly important as CO2 levels rise.
James A. King, James Weber, Peter Lawrence, Stephanie Roe, Abigail L. S. Swann, and Maria Val Martin
Biogeosciences, 21, 3883–3902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tackling climate change by adding, restoring, or enhancing forests is gaining global support. However, it is important to investigate the broader implications of this. We used a computer model of the Earth to investigate a future where tree cover expanded as much as possible. We found that some tropical areas were cooler because of trees pumping water into the atmosphere, but this also led to soil and rivers drying. This is important because it might be harder to maintain forests as a result.
Benoît Pasquier, Mark Holzer, and Matthew A. Chamberlain
Biogeosciences, 21, 3373–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How do perpetually slower and warmer oceans sequester carbon? Compared to the preindustrial state, we find that biological productivity declines despite warming-stimulated growth because of a lower nutrient supply from depth. This throttles the biological carbon pump, which still sequesters more carbon because it takes longer to return to the surface. The deep ocean is isolated from the surface, allowing more carbon from the atmosphere to pass through the ocean without contributing to biology.
Rebecca Chloe Evans and H. Damon Matthews
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1810, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To mitigate our impact on the climate, research suggests that we will need to both drastically reduce emissions and perform carbon dioxide removal (CDR). We simulated future climates under three emissions scenarios, in which we removed some carbon from the air and put it into agricultural soil at varying rates. We found that agricultural CDR is much more effective at reducing global temperatures if done in a low emissions scenario and at a high rate, and it becomes less effective with time.
Matthew A. Chamberlain, Tilo Ziehn, and Rachel M. Law
Biogeosciences, 21, 3053–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the climate processes that drive increasing global average temperatures in zero-emission commitment (ZEC) simulations despite decreasing atmospheric CO2. ACCESS-ESM1.5 shows the Southern Ocean to continue to warm locally in all ZEC simulations. In ZEC simulations that start after the emission of more than 1000 Pg of carbon, the influence of the Southern Ocean increases the global temperature.
Shuaifeng Song, Xuezhen Zhang, and Xiaodong Yan
Biogeosciences, 21, 2839–2858, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped the distribution of future potential afforestation regions based on future high-resolution climate data and climate–vegetation models. After considering the national afforestation policy and climate change, we found that the future potential afforestation region was mainly located around and to the east of the Hu Line. This study provides a dataset for exploring the effects of future afforestation.
Tianfei Xue, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, Andreas Oschlies, and Ivy Frenger
Biogeosciences, 21, 2473–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton play a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Kinga Kulesza and Agata Hościło
Biogeosciences, 21, 2509–2527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2509-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present coherence and time lags in spectral response of three vegetation types in the European temperate zone to the influencing meteorological factors and teleconnection indices for the period 2002–2022. Vegetation condition in broadleaved forest, coniferous forest and pastures was measured with MODIS NDVI and EVI, and the coherence between NDVI and EVI and meteorological elements was described using the methods of wavelet coherence and Pearson’s linear correlation with time lag.
Anton Lokshin, Daniel Palchan, and Avner Gross
Biogeosciences, 21, 2355–2365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ash particles from wildfires are rich in phosphorus (P), a crucial nutrient that constitutes a limiting factor in 43 % of the world's land ecosystems. We hypothesize that wildfire ash could directly contribute to plant nutrition. We find that fire ash application boosts the growth of plants, but the only way plants can uptake P from fire ash is through the foliar uptake pathway and not through the roots. The fertilization impact of fire ash was also maintained under elevated levels of CO2.
Lucia S. Layritz, Konstantin Gregor, Andreas Krause, Stefan Kruse, Ben F. Meyer, Tom A. M. Pugh, and Anja Rammig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1028, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Disturbances (e.g. fire) can change which species grow in a forest, affecting water, carbon, energy flows, and the climate. They are expected to increase with climate change, but it is uncertain by how much. We studied how future climate and disturbances might impact vegetation with a simulation model. Our findings highlight the importance of considering both factors, with future disturbance patterns posing significant uncertainty. More research is needed to understand their future development.
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Flora Desmet, Matthias Münnich, and Nicolas Gruber
Biogeosciences, 20, 5151–5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean acidity extremes in the upper 250 m depth of the northeastern Pacific rapidly increase with atmospheric CO2 rise, which is worrisome for marine organisms that rapidly experience pH levels outside their local environmental conditions. Presented research shows the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in this increase between regions and depths. In particular, the subsurface increase is substantially slowed down by the presence of mesoscale eddies, often not resolved in Earth system models.
Geneviève W. Elsworth, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Thomas M. Marchitto, and Sarah Schlunegger
Biogeosciences, 20, 4477–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on marine phytoplankton internal variability using an Earth system model ensemble and identify a decline in global phytoplankton biomass variance with warming. Our results suggest that climate mitigation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes should also consider changes in phytoplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming.
Olivia Haas, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 3981–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the impact of CO2 and climate on global patterns of burnt area, fire size, and intensity under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions using three climate scenarios. Climate change alone did not produce the observed LGM reduction in burnt area, but low CO2 did through reducing vegetation productivity. Fire intensity was sensitive to CO2 but strongly affected by changes in atmospheric dryness. Low CO2 caused smaller fires; climate had the opposite effect except in the driest scenario.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Claudia Hinrichs, Peter Köhler, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
Biogeosciences, 20, 3717–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the alkalinity distribution in 14 climate models and found that most models underestimate alkalinity at the surface and overestimate it in the deeper ocean. It highlights the need for better understanding and quantification of processes driving alkalinity distribution and calcium carbonate dissolution and the importance of accounting for biases in model results when evaluating potential ocean alkalinity enhancement experiments.
Yonghong Zheng, Huanfeng Shen, Rory Abernethy, and Rob Wilson
Biogeosciences, 20, 3481–3490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Investigations in central and western China show that tree ring inverted latewood intensity expresses a strong positive relationship with growing-season temperatures, indicating exciting potential for regions south of 30° N that are traditionally not targeted for temperature reconstructions. Earlywood BI also shows good potential to reconstruct hydroclimate parameters in some humid areas and will enhance ring-width-based hydroclimate reconstructions in the future.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 Mha burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain, emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m−2. We found larger-fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned-area and combustion datasets described here can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
V. Rachel Chimuka, Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Biogeosciences, 20, 2283–2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a new method to quantify carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions. Our method isolates the lagged carbon cycle response to preceding positive emissions from the response to negative emissions. Our findings suggest that feedback parameters calculated with the novel approach are larger than those calculated with the conventional approach whereby carbon cycle inertia is not corrected for, with implications for the effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in reducing CO2 levels.
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 20, 2237–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A promising strategy for mitigating burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. The consequence of this would be reduced absorption of solar radiation, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study, we show that deciduous forests have a certain cooling effect on heat period intensities in Europe. However, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
Gesche Blume-Werry, Jonatan Klaminder, Eveline J. Krab, and Sylvain Monteux
Biogeosciences, 20, 1979–1990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Northern soils store a lot of carbon. Most research has focused on how this carbon storage is regulated by cold temperatures. However, it is soil organisms, from minute bacteria to large earthworms, that decompose the organic material. Novel soil organisms from further south could increase decomposition rates more than climate change does and lead to carbon losses. We therefore advocate for including soil organisms when predicting the fate of soil functions in warming northern ecosystems.
Koramanghat Unnikrishnan Jayakrishnan and Govindasamy Bala
Biogeosciences, 20, 1863–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation and reducing fossil fuel emissions are two important mitigation strategies to reduce the amount of global warming. Our work shows that reducing fossil fuel emissions is relatively more effective than afforestation for the same amount of carbon removed from the atmosphere. However, understanding of the processes that govern the biophysical effects of afforestation should be improved before considering our results for climate policy.
Jens Hartmann, Niels Suitner, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Laura Marín-Samper, Javier Arístegui, Phil Renforth, Jan Taucher, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 20, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CO2 can be stored in the ocean via increasing alkalinity of ocean water. Alkalinity can be created via dissolution of alkaline materials, like limestone or soda. Presented research studies boundaries for increasing alkalinity in seawater. The best way to increase alkalinity was found using an equilibrated solution, for example as produced from reactors. Adding particles for dissolution into seawater on the other hand produces the risk of losing alkalinity and degassing of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, Amir Haroon, Hermann W. Bange, Ercan Erkul, Marion Jegen, Nils Moosdorf, Jens Schneider von Deimling, Christian Berndt, Michael Ernst Böttcher, Jasper Hoffmann, Volker Liebetrau, Ulf Mallast, Gudrun Massmann, Aaron Micallef, Holly A. Michael, Hendrik Paasche, Wolfgang Rabbel, Isaac Santos, Jan Scholten, Katrin Schwalenberg, Beata Szymczycha, Ariel T. Thomas, Joonas J. Virtasalo, Hannelore Waska, and Bradley A. Weymer
Biogeosciences, 20, 647–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater flows at the land–ocean transition and the extent of freshened groundwater below the seafloor are increasingly relevant in marine sciences, both because they are a highly uncertain term of biogeochemical budgets and due to the emerging interest in the latter as a resource. Here, we discuss our perspectives on future research directions to better understand land–ocean connectivity through groundwater and its potential responses to natural and human-induced environmental changes.
Morgan Sparey, Peter Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Biogeosciences, 20, 451–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate climate models are vital for mitigating climate change; however, projections often disagree. Using Köppen–Geiger bioclimate classifications we show that CMIP6 climate models agree well on the fraction of global land surface that will change classification per degree of global warming. We find that 13 % of land will change climate per degree of warming from 1 to 3 K; thus, stabilising warming at 1.5 rather than 2 K would save over 7.5 million square kilometres from bioclimatic change.
Huanhuan Wang, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 20, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study provided a synthesis of three influential methods to quantify afforestation impact on surface temperature. Results showed that actual effect following afforestation was highly dependent on afforestation fraction. When full afforestation is assumed, the actual effect approaches the potential effect. We provided evidence the afforestation faction is a key factor in reconciling different methods and emphasized that it should be considered for surface cooling impacts in policy evaluation.
Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Laibao Liu, Vincent Humphrey, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 19, 5435–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until 2100 is different for each Earth system model. We find that differences across models are primarily explained by the annual land carbon sink dependence on temperature and soil moisture, followed by the dependence on CO2 air concentration, and by average climate conditions. Our insights on why each model projects a relatively high or low land carbon sink can help to reduce the underlying uncertainty.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
Daniel François, Adina Paytan, Olga Maria Oliveira de Araújo, Ricardo Tadeu Lopes, and Cátia Fernandes Barbosa
Biogeosciences, 19, 5269–5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our analysis revealed that under the two most conservative acidification projections foraminifera assemblages did not display considerable changes. However, a significant decrease in species richness was observed when pH decreases to 7.7 pH units, indicating adverse effects under high-acidification scenarios. A micro-CT analysis revealed that calcified tests of Archaias angulatus were of lower density in low pH, suggesting no acclimation capacity for this species.
Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Robin van der Schalie, Tracy Scanlon, Richard de Jeu, and Wouter Dorigo
Biogeosciences, 19, 5107–5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI) can be used to monitor the vegetation condition, such as whether the vegetation is unusually dry or wet. SVODI has global coverage, spans the past 3 decades and is derived from multiple spaceborne passive microwave sensors of that period. SVODI is based on a new probabilistic merging method that allows the merging of normally distributed data even if the data are not gap-free.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Cited articles
Abatzoglou, J. T.: Development of gridded surface meteorological data for
ecological applications and modelling, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 121–131,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3413, 2013.
Abatzoglou, J. T. and Brown, T. J.: A comparison of statistical downscaling
methods suited for wildfire applications, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 772–780,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2312, 2012.
Agee, J. K., Wright, C. S., Williamson, N., and Huff, M. H.: Foliar moisture
content of Pacific Northwest vegetation and its relation to wildland fire
behavior, For. Ecol. Manag., 167, 57–66,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(01)00690-9, 2002.
Aguado, I., Chuvieco, E., Boren, R., and Nieto, H.: Estimation of dead fuel
moisture content from meteorological data in Mediterranean areas.
Applications in fire danger assessment, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 16, 390–397,
https://doi.org/10.1071/WF06136, 2007.
Anderson, S. A. and Anderson, W. R.: Ignition and fire spread thresholds in
gorse (Ulex europaeus), Int. J. Wildland Fire, 19, 589–598,
https://doi.org/10.1071/WF09008, 2010.
Balch, J. K., Bradley, B. A., Abatzoglou, J. T., Nagy, R. C., Fusco, E. J.,
and Mahood, A. L.: Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the
United States, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 2946–2951,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617394114, 2017.
Bartlett, M. K., Scoffoni, C., and Sack, L.: The determinants of leaf turgor
loss point and prediction of drought tolerance of species and biomes: a
global meta-analysis, Ecol. Lett., 15, 393–405,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01751.x, 2012.
Bilgili, E. and Saglam, B.: Fire behavior in maquis fuels in Turkey, For.
Ecol. Manag., 184, 201–207, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(03)00208-1,
2003.
Bistinas, I., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., and Pereira, J. M. C.: Causal relationships versus emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency, Biogeosciences, 11, 5087–5101, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5087-2014, 2014.
Bridges Jr., C. C.: Hierarchical cluster analysis, Psychol. Rep., 18,
851–854, https://doi.org/10.2466/pr0.1966.18.3.851, 1966.
Caccamo, G., Chisholm, L. A., Bradstock, R. A., and Puotinen, M. L.: Using
remotely-sensed fuel connectivity patterns as a tool for fire danger
monitoring, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L01302, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050125,
2012a.
Caccamo, G., Chisholm, L. A., Bradstock, R. A., Puotinen, M. L., and Pippen,
B. G.: Monitoring live fuel moisture content of heathland, shrubland and
sclerophyll forest in south-eastern Australia using MODIS data, Int. J.
Wildland Fire, 21, 257–269, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF11024, 2012b.
Caldwell, P. M., Mametjanov, A., Tang, Q., Van Roekel, L. P., Golaz, J. C.,
Lin, W., Bader, D. C., Keen, N. D., Feng, Y., Jacob, R., and Maltrud, M. E.:
The DOE E3SM coupled model version 1: Description and results at high
resolution, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 4095–4146,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001870, 2019.
Castro, F. X., Tudela, A., and Sebastià, M. T.: Modeling moisture
content in shrubs to predict fire risk in Catalonia (Spain), Agric. For.
Meteorol., 116, 49–59, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(02)00248-4, 2003.
Christoffersen, B. O., Gloor, M., Fauset, S., Fyllas, N. M., Galbraith, D. R., Baker, T. R., Kruijt, B., Rowland, L., Fisher, R. A., Binks, O. J., Sevanto, S., Xu, C., Jansen, S., Choat, B., Mencuccini, M., McDowell, N. G., and Meir, P.: Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4227–4255, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4227-2016, 2016.
Chuvieco, E., Cocero, D., Riano, D., Martin, P., Martınez-Vega, J., de la
Riva, J., and Pérez, F.: Combining NDVI and surface temperature for the
estimation of live fuel moisture content in forest fire danger rating,
Remote. Sens. Environ., 92, 322–331,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2004.01.019, 2004.
Chuvieco, E., González, I., Verdú, F., Aguado, I., and Yebra, M.:
Prediction of fire occurrence from live fuel moisture content measurements
in a Mediterranean ecosystem, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 18, 430–441,
https://doi.org/10.1071/WF08020, 2009.
Clarke, H., Pitman, A. J., Kala, J., Carouge, C., Haverd, V., and Evans, J.
P.: An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia,
Clim. Change., 139, 591–605, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1808-9,
2016.
Dennison, P. E. and Moritz, M. A.: Critical live fuel moisture in chaparral
ecosystems: a threshold for fire activity and its relationship to antecedent
precipitation, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 18, 1021–1027,
https://doi.org/10.1071/WF08055, 2009.
Dennison, P. E., Moritz, M. A., and Taylor, R. S.: Evaluating predictive
models of critical live fuel moisture in the Santa Monica Mountains,
California, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 17, 18–27,
https://doi.org/10.1071/WF07017, 2008.
Dimitrakopoulos, A. P. and Papaioannou, K. K.: Flammability assessment of
Mediterranean forest fuels, Fire Technol., 37, 143–152,
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011641601076, 2001.
Duursma, R. A. and Medlyn, B. E.: MAESPA: a model to study interactions between water limitation, environmental drivers and vegetation function at tree and stand levels, with an example application to [CO2] × drought interactions, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 919–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-919-2012, 2012.
Fisher, R. A., Muszala, S., Verteinstein, M., Lawrence, P., Xu, C., McDowell, N. G., Knox, R. G., Koven, C., Holm, J., Rogers, B. M., Spessa, A., Lawrence, D., and Bonan, G.: Taking off the training wheels: the properties of a dynamic vegetation model without climate envelopes, CLM4.5(ED), Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3593–3619, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, 2015.
Fisher, R. A., Koven, C. D., Anderegg, W. R., Christoffersen, B. O., Dietze,
M. C., Farrior, C. E., Holm, J. A., Hurtt, G. C., Knox, R. G., Lawrence, P.
J., and Lichstein, J. W.: Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A
review of progress and priorities, Glob. Change. Biol., 24, 35–54,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13910, 2018.
Flannigan, M. D., Krawchuk, M. A., de Groot, W. J., Wotton, B. M., and
Gowman, L. M.: Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire,
Int. J. Wildland Fire, 18, 483–507, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF08187, 2009.
Gillett, N. P., Weaver, A. J., Zwiers, F. W., and Flannigan, M. D.:
Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 31, L18211, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020876, 2004.
Goss, M., Swain, D. L., Abatzoglou, J. T., Sarhadi, A., Kolden, C. A.,
Williams, A. P., and Diffenbaugh, N. S.: Climate change is increasing the
likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California, Environ.
Res. Lett., 15, 094016, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7, 2020.
Hantson, S., Arneth, A., Harrison, S. P., Kelley, D. I., Prentice, I. C., Rabin, S. S., Archibald, S., Mouillot, F., Arnold, S. R., Artaxo, P., Bachelet, D., Ciais, P., Forrest, M., Friedlingstein, P., Hickler, T., Kaplan, J. O., Kloster, S., Knorr, W., Lasslop, G., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Melton, J. R., Meyn, A., Sitch, S., Spessa, A., van der Werf, G. R., Voulgarakis, A., and Yue, C.: The status and challenge of global fire modelling, Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016.
Holm, J. A., Shugart, H. H., Van Bloem, S. J., and Larocque, G. R.: Gap
model development, validation, and application to succession of secondary
subtropical dry forests of Puerto Rico, Ecol. Modell., 233, 70–82,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.03.014, 2012.
Jackson, D. A.: Stopping rules in principal components analysis: a
comparison of heuristical and statistical approaches, Ecology, 74,
2204–2214, https://doi.org/10.2307/1939574, 1993.
Jacobsen, A. L., Pratt, R. B., Davis, S. D., and Ewers, F. W.: Comparative
community physiology: nonconvergence in water relations among three
semi-arid shrub communities, New Phytol., 180, 100–113,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2008.02554.x, 2008.
Jolly, W. M. and Johnson, D. M.: Pyro-ecophysiology: shifting the paradigm
of live wildland fuel research, Fire, 1, 8,
https://doi.org/10.3390/fire1010008, 2018.
Keeley, J. E.: Future of California floristics and systematics: wildfire
threats to the California flora, Madrono, 42, 175–179, available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/41425064 (last access: 25 March 2021), 1995.
Keeley, J. E. and Zedler, P. H.: Large, high-intensity fire events in
southern California shrublands: debunking the fine-grain age patch model,
Ecol. Appl., 19, 69–94, https://doi.org/10.1890/08-0281.1, 2009.
Keeley, J. E., Bond, W. J., Bradstock, R. A., Pausas, J. G., and Rundel, P.
W.: Fire in Mediterranean ecosystems: ecology, evolution and management,
Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.4000/mediterranee.6936, 2011.
Kelley, D. I., Bistinas, I., Whitley, R., Burton, C., Marthews, T. R., and
Dong, N.: How contemporary bioclimatic and human controls change global fire
regimes, Nat. Clim. Change., 9, 690–696,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0540-7, 2019.
Kennedy, D., Swenson, S., Oleson, K. W., Lawrence, D. M., Fisher, R., Lola
da Costa, A. C., and Gentine, P.: Implementing plant hydraulics in the
community land model, version 5, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 485–513,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001500, 2019.
Koven, C. D., Knox, R. G., Fisher, R. A., Chambers, J. Q., Christoffersen, B. O., Davies, S. J., Detto, M., Dietze, M. C., Faybishenko, B., Holm, J., Huang, M., Kovenock, M., Kueppers, L. M., Lemieux, G., Massoud, E., McDowell, N. G., Muller-Landau, H. C., Needham, J. F., Norby, R. J., Powell, T., Rogers, A., Serbin, S. P., Shuman, J. K., Swann, A. L. S., Varadharajan, C., Walker, A. P., Wright, S. J., and Xu, C.: Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama, Biogeosciences, 17, 3017–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, 2020.
Krawchuk, M. A., Moritz, M. A., Parisien, M. A., Van Dorn, J., and Hayhoe,
K.: Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire,
Plos One, 4, e5102, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0005102, 2009.
Linn, R., Reisner, J., Colman, J. J., and Winterkamp, J.: Studying wildfire
behavior using FIRETEC, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 11, 233–246,
https://doi.org/10.1071/WF02007, 2002.
Liu, Y., Stanturf, J., and Goodrick, S.: Trends in global wildfire potential
in a changing climate, For. Ecol. Manag., 259, 685–697,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.002, 2010.
Massoud, E. C., Xu, C., Fisher, R. A., Knox, R. G., Walker, A. P., Serbin, S. P., Christoffersen, B. O., Holm, J. A., Kueppers, L. M., Ricciuto, D. M., Wei, L., Johnson, D. J., Chambers, J. Q., Koven, C. D., McDowell, N. G., and Vrugt, J. A.: Identification of key parameters controlling demographically structured vegetation dynamics in a land surface model: CLM4.5(FATES), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4133–4164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, 2019.
Matthews, S., Sullivan, A. L., Watson, P., and Williams, R. J.: Climate
change, fuel and fire behaviour in a eucalypt forest, Glob. Change Biol.,
18, 3212–3223, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02768.x, 2012.
McDowell, N. G., Fisher, R. A., Xu, C., Domec, J. C., Hölttä, T.,
Mackay, D. S., Sperry, J. S., Boutz, A., Dickman, L., Gehres, N., and
Limousin, J. M.: Evaluating theories of drought-induced vegetation mortality
using a multimodel–experiment framework, New Phytol., 200, 304–321,
https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12465, 2013.
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M. L.,
Lamarque, J. F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C., Riahi, K., and
Thomson, A. G.: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions
from 1765 to 2300, Clim. Change., 109, 213–241,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011.
Meinzer, F. C., James, S. A., Goldstein, G., and Woodruff, D.: Whole-tree
water transport scales with sapwood capacitance in tropical forest canopy
trees, Plant Cell Environ., 26, 1147–1155,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-3040.2003.01039.x, 2003.
Meinzer, F. C., Johnson, D. M., Lachenbruch, B., McCulloh, K. A., and
Woodruff, D. R.: Xylem hydraulic safety margins in woody plants:
coordination of stomatal control of xylem tension with hydraulic
capacitance, Funct. Ecol., 23, 922–930,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2435.2009.01577.x, 2009.
Mencuccini, M., Manzoni, S., and Christoffersen, B.: Modelling water fluxes
in plants: from tissues to biosphere, New Phytol., 222, 1207–1222,
https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15681, 2019.
Mikkelsen, T. N., Beier, C., Jonasson, S., Holmstrup, M., Schmidt, I. K.,
Ambus, P., Pilegaard, K., Michelsen, A., Albert, K., Andresen, L. C., and
Arndal, M. F.: Experimental design of multifactor climate change experiments
with elevated CO2, warming and drought: the CLIMAITE project, Funct. Ecol.,
22, 185–195, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2435.2007.01362.x, 2008.
Moorcroft, P. R., Hurtt, G. C., and Pacala, S. W.: A method for scaling
vegetation dynamics: the ecosystem demography model (ED), Ecol. Monogr., 71,
557–586, https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9615(2001)071[0557:AMFSVD]2.0.CO;2,
2001.
Moritz, M. A., Parisien, M. A., Batllori, E., Krawchuk, M. A., Van Dorn, J.,
Ganz, D. J., and Hayhoe, K.: Climate change and disruptions to global fire
activity, Ecosphere, 3, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1890/ES11-00345.1, 2012.
Nolan, R. H., Boer, M. M., Resco de Dios, V., Caccamo, G., and Bradstock, R.
A.: Large-scale, dynamic transformations in fuel moisture drive wildfire
activity across southeastern Australia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 4229–4238,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068614, 2016.
Nolan, R. H., Blackman, C. J., de Dios, V. R., Choat, B., Medlyn, B. E., Li,
X., Bradstock, R. A., and Boer, M. M.: Linking forest flammability and plant
vulnerability to drought, Forests, 11, 779,
https://doi.org/10.3390/f11070779, 2020.
Pataki, D. E., Huxman, T. E., Jordan, D. N., Zitzer, S. F., Coleman, J. S.,
Smith, S. D., Nowak, R. S., and Seemann, J. R.: Water use of two Mojave
Desert shrubs under elevated CO2, Glob. Change Biol., 6, 889–897,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2000.00360.x, 2000.
Pellizzaro, G., Cesaraccio, C., Duce, P., Ventura, A., and Zara, P.:
Relationships between seasonal patterns of live fuel moisture and
meteorological drought indices for Mediterranean shrubland species, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 16, 232–241, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF06081, 2007.
Pimont, F., Ruffault, J., Martin-StPaul, N. K., and Dupuy, J. L.: Why is the
effect of live fuel moisture content on fire rate of spread underestimated
in field experiments in shrublands?, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 28, 127–137,
https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18056, 2019.
Pineda-Garcia, F., Paz, H., and Meinzer, F. C.: Drought resistance in early
and late secondary successional species from a tropical dry forest: the
interplay between xylem resistance to embolism, sapwood water storage and
leaf shedding, Plant Cell Environ., 36, 405–418,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3040.2012.02582.x, 2013.
Pivovaroff, A. L., Emery, N., Sharifi, M. R., Witter, M., Keeley, J. E., and
Rundel, P. W.: The effect of ecophysiological traits on live fuel moisture
content, Fire, 2, 28, https://doi.org/10.3390/fire2020028, 2019.
Plucinski, M. P.: The investigation of factors governing ignition and
development of fires in heathland vegetation, PhD thesis, University of New
South Wales, Sydney, Australia, 2003.
Powell, T. L., Koven, C. D., Johnson, D. J., Faybishenko, B., Fisher, R. A.,
Knox, R. G., McDowell, N. G., Condit, R., Hubbell, S. P., Wright, S. J., and
Chambers, J. Q.: Variation in hydroclimate sustains tropical forest biomass
and promotes functional diversity, New Phytol., 219, 932–946,
https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15271, 2018.
Rabin, S. S., Melton, J. R., Lasslop, G., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Hantson, S., Kaplan, J. O., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Ward, D. S., Yue, C., Arora, V. K., Hickler, T., Kloster, S., Knorr, W., Nieradzik, L., Spessa, A., Folberth, G. A., Sheehan, T., Voulgarakis, A., Kelley, D. I., Prentice, I. C., Sitch, S., Harrison, S., and Arneth, A.: The Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), phase 1: experimental and analytical protocols with detailed model descriptions, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017.
Rind, D., Goldberg, R., Hansen, J., Rosenzweig, C., and Ruedy, R.: Potential
evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought, J. Geophys. Res.
Atmos., 95, 9983–10004, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD095iD07p09983, 1990.
Rossa, C. G. and Fernandes, P. M.: Live fuel moisture content: The “pea
under the mattress” of fire spread rate modeling?, Fire, 1, 43,
https://doi.org/10.3390/fire1030043, 2018.
Rothermel, R. C.: A mathematical model for predicting fire spread in
wildland fuels (Vol. 115), Intermountain Forest & Range Experiment
Station, Forest Service, US Department of Agriculture, Minneapolis, USA, 1972.
Ruthrof, K. X., Fontaine, J. B., Matusick, G., Breshears, D. D., Law, D. J.,
Powell, S., and Hardy, G.: How drought-induced forest die-off alters
microclimate and increases fuel loadings and fire potentials, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 25, 819–830, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF15028, 2016.
Saura-Mas, S. and Lloret, F.: Leaf and shoot water content and leaf dry
matter content of Mediterranean woody species with different post-fire
regenerative strategies, Ann. Bot., 99, 545–554,
https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcl284, 2007.
Schroeder, M. J., Glovinsky, M., Henricks, V. F., Hood, F. C., and Hull, M.
K.: Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather, USDA
Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Range and Experiment Station, Berkeley,
CA, USA, 1964.
Seiler, C., Hutjes, R. W. A., Kruijt, B., Quispe, J., Añez, S., Arora,
V. K., Melton, J. R., Hickler, T., and Kabat, P.: Modeling forest dynamics
along climate gradients in Bolivia, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 119,
758–775, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JG002509, 2014.
Stocks, B. J., Fosberg, M. A., Lynham, T. J., Mearns, L., Wotton, B. M.,
Yang, Q., Jin, J. Z., Lawrence, K., Hartley, G. R., Mason, J. A., and
McKenney, D. W.: Climate change and forest fire potential in Russian and
Canadian boreal forests, Clim. Change., 38, 1–13,
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005306001055, 1998.
Sturtevant, B. R., Scheller, R. M., Miranda, B. R., Shinneman, D., and
Syphard, A.: Simulating dynamic and mixed-severity fire regimes: a
process-based fire extension for LANDIS-II, Ecol. Modell., 220, 3380–3393,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.07.030, 2009.
Thonicke, K., Spessa, A., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Dong, L., and Carmona-Moreno, C.: The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model, Biogeosciences, 7, 1991–2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-1991-2010, 2010.
Tjiputra, J. F., Roelandt, C., Bentsen, M., Lawrence, D. M., Lorentzen, T., Schwinger, J., Seland, Ø., and Heinze, C.: Evaluation of the carbon cycle components in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM), Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 301–325, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-301-2013, 2013.
Tobin, M. F., Lopez, O. R., and Kursar, T. A.: Responses of Tropical Understory Plants to a Severe Drought: Tolerance and Avoidance of Water Stress, Biotropica, 31, 570–578, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7429.1999.tb00404.x, 1999.
Tognetti, R., Minnocci, A., Peñuelas, J., Raschi, A., and Jones, M. B.:
Comparative field water relations of three Mediterranean shrub species
co-occurring at a natural CO2 vent, J. Exp. Bot., 51, 1135–1146,
https://doi.org/10.1093/jexbot/51.347.1135, 2000.
Tyree, M. T. and Hammel, H. T.: The measurement of the turgor pressure and
the water relations of plants by the pressure-bomb technique, J. Exp. Bot.,
23, 267–282, https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/23.1.267, 1972.
Tyree, M. T. and Yang, S.: Water-storage capacity of Thuja, Tsuga and Acer
stems measured by dehydration isotherms, Planta, 182, 420–426,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02411394, 1990.
Veblen, T. T., Kitzberger, T., and Donnegan, J.: Climatic and human
influences on fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests in the Colorado Front
Range, Ecol. Appl., 10, 1178–1195,
https://doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(2000)010[1178:CAHIOF]2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Venturas, M. D., MacKinnon, E. D., Dario, H. L., Jacobsen, A. L., Pratt, R.
B., and Davis, S. D.: Chaparral shrub hydraulic traits, size, and life
history types relate to species mortality during California's historic
drought of 2014, Plos One, 11, e0159145, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159145,
2016.
Wei, L., Xu, C., Jansen, S., Zhou, H., Christoffersen, B. O., Pockman, W.
T., Middleton, R. S., Marshall, J. D., and McDowell, N. G.: A heuristic
classification of woody plants based on contrasting shade and drought
strategies, Tree Physiol., 39, 767–781,
https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpy146, 2019.
Westerling, A. L., Gershunov, A., Brown, T. J., Cayan, D. R., and Dettinger,
M. D.: Climate and wildfire in the western United States, Bull. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 84, 595–604, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-5-595, 2003.
Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., and Swetnam, T. W.: Warming
and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity, Science,
313, 940–943, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0178, 2006.
Williams, A. P., Abatzoglou, J. T., Gershunov, A., Guzman-Morales, J.,
Bishop, D. A., Balch, J. K., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Observed impacts of
anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in California, Earths Future, 7,
892–910, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001210, 2019.
Wu, J., Serbin, S. P., Ely, K. S., Wolfe, B. T., Dickman, L. T., Grossiord,
C., Michaletz, S. T., Collins, A. D., Detto, M., McDowell, N. G., and
Wright, S. J.: The response of stomatal conductance to seasonal drought in
tropical forests, Glob. Change Biol., 26, 823–839,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14820, 2020.
Wullschleger, S. D., Gunderson, C. A., Hanson, P. J., Wilson, K. B., and
Norby, R. J.: Sensitivity of stomatal and canopy conductance to elevated CO2
concentration–interacting variables and perspectives of scale, New Phytol.,
153, 485–496, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.0028-646X.2001.00333.x, 2002.
Xu, C., McDowell, N. G., Sevanto, S., and Fisher, R. A.: Our limited ability
to predict vegetation dynamics under water stress, New Phytol., 200,
298–300, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12450, 2013.
Xu, C., McDowell, N. G., Fisher, R. A., Wei, L., Sevanto, S.,
Christoffersen, B. O., Weng, E., and Middleton, R. S.: Increasing impacts of
extreme droughts on vegetation productivity under climate change, Nat. Clim.
Change., 9, 948–953, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0630-6, 2019.
Xu, X., Medvigy, D., Powers, J. S., Becknell, J. M., and Guan, K.: Diversity
in plant hydraulic traits explains seasonal and inter-annual variations of
vegetation dynamics in seasonally dry tropical forests, New Phytol., 212,
80–95, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.14009, 2016.
Yebra, M., Chuvieco, E., and Riaño, D.: Estimation of live fuel moisture
content from MODIS images for fire risk assessment, Agric. For. Meteorol.,
148, 523–536, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.12.005, 2008.
Yebra, M., Quan, X., Riaño, D., Larraondo, P. R., van Dijk, A. I., and
Cary, G. J.: A fuel moisture content and flammability monitoring methodology
for continental Australia based on optical remote sensing, Remote. Sens.
Environ., 212, 260–272, https://doi.org/10.4225/41/5837cd92ada9f, 2018.
Zarco-Tejada, P. J., Rueda, C. A., and Ustin, S. L.: Water content
estimation in vegetation with MODIS reflectance data and model inversion
methods, Remote. Sens. Environ., 85, 109–124,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(02)00197-9, 2003.
Short summary
We use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate live fuel moisture dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in live fuel moisture and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.
We use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate live fuel moisture dynamics of...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint