Articles | Volume 18, issue 13
Research article
06 Jul 2021
Research article |  | 06 Jul 2021

Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model

Wu Ma, Lu Zhai, Alexandria Pivovaroff, Jacquelyn Shuman, Polly Buotte, Junyan Ding, Bradley Christoffersen, Ryan Knox, Max Moritz, Rosie A. Fisher, Charles D. Koven, Lara Kueppers, and Chonggang Xu

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Biogeosciences, 18, 4473–4490,,, 2021
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Cited articles

Abatzoglou, J. T.: Development of gridded surface meteorological data for ecological applications and modelling, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 121–131,, 2013. 
Abatzoglou, J. T. and Brown, T. J.: A comparison of statistical downscaling methods suited for wildfire applications, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 772–780,, 2012. 
Agee, J. K., Wright, C. S., Williamson, N., and Huff, M. H.: Foliar moisture content of Pacific Northwest vegetation and its relation to wildland fire behavior, For. Ecol. Manag., 167, 57–66,, 2002. 
Aguado, I., Chuvieco, E., Boren, R., and Nieto, H.: Estimation of dead fuel moisture content from meteorological data in Mediterranean areas. Applications in fire danger assessment, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 16, 390–397,, 2007. 
Anderson, S. A. and Anderson, W. R.: Ignition and fire spread thresholds in gorse (Ulex europaeus), Int. J. Wildland Fire, 19, 589–598,, 2010. 
Short summary
We use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate live fuel moisture dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in live fuel moisture and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.
Final-revised paper