Articles | Volume 18, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4937-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4937-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Estimated effect of the permafrost carbon feedback on the zero emissions commitment to climate change
Climate & Environment, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, B2G 2W5, Canada
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Cited
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems B. Abbott et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.889428
- Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks M. Allen et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08326-8
- Effect of terrestrial nutrient limitation on the estimation of the remaining carbon budget M. De Sisto & A. MacDougall https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4853-2024
- Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming M. Dvorak et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01372-y
- Pathfinder v1.0.1: a Bayesian-inferred simple carbon–climate model to explore climate change scenarios T. Bossy et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8831-2022
- Permafrost carbon–climate feedback amplifies Earth system tipping risks N. Steinert et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae7586
- Early or delayed Northern Hemisphere warming driven by the AMOC in a net-zero CO2 world Y. Lee et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01165-y
- AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization Y. Silvy et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024
- A comparative study of environmental information disclosure between banks in net-zero banking alliance and China X. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123324
- Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433
- Research on the Impact of Green Finance and the Digital Economy on the Energy Consumption Structure in the Context of Carbon Neutrality T. Yang & R. Wang https://doi.org/10.3390/su152215874
- Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets R. Lamboll et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5
- No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point J. Nitzbon et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
- The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization S. Palazzo Corner et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744
- Permafrost response and feedback under temperature stabilization and overshoot scenarios with different global warming levels M. Cui et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1809-2025
- Evaluating Weather and Chemical Transport Models at High Latitudes using MAGIC2021 Airborne Measurements F. Langot et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-5955-2025
- Taking Earth’s Temperature: Will Zero Carbon Mean Zero Change? S. Palazzo Corner & J. Rogelj https://doi.org/10.3389/frym.2023.1248929
- Reducing uncertainty of high-latitude ecosystem models through identification of key parameters H. Mevenkamp et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace637
- The Multi‐Decadal Response to Net Zero CO2 Emissions and Implications for Emissions Policy S. Jenkins et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101047
- Normalizing the permafrost carbon feedback contribution to the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Emissions and the Zero Emissions Commitment N. Steinert & B. Sanderson https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1711-2025
- Multi-century cooling after net-zero greenhouse gas emissions N. Tarshish et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02700-2
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems B. Abbott et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.889428
- Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks M. Allen et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08326-8
- Effect of terrestrial nutrient limitation on the estimation of the remaining carbon budget M. De Sisto & A. MacDougall https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4853-2024
- Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming M. Dvorak et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01372-y
- Pathfinder v1.0.1: a Bayesian-inferred simple carbon–climate model to explore climate change scenarios T. Bossy et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8831-2022
- Permafrost carbon–climate feedback amplifies Earth system tipping risks N. Steinert et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae7586
- Early or delayed Northern Hemisphere warming driven by the AMOC in a net-zero CO2 world Y. Lee et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01165-y
- AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization Y. Silvy et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024
- A comparative study of environmental information disclosure between banks in net-zero banking alliance and China X. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123324
- Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433
- Research on the Impact of Green Finance and the Digital Economy on the Energy Consumption Structure in the Context of Carbon Neutrality T. Yang & R. Wang https://doi.org/10.3390/su152215874
- Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets R. Lamboll et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5
- No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point J. Nitzbon et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
- The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization S. Palazzo Corner et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744
- Permafrost response and feedback under temperature stabilization and overshoot scenarios with different global warming levels M. Cui et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1809-2025
- Evaluating Weather and Chemical Transport Models at High Latitudes using MAGIC2021 Airborne Measurements F. Langot et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-5955-2025
- Taking Earth’s Temperature: Will Zero Carbon Mean Zero Change? S. Palazzo Corner & J. Rogelj https://doi.org/10.3389/frym.2023.1248929
- Reducing uncertainty of high-latitude ecosystem models through identification of key parameters H. Mevenkamp et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace637
- The Multi‐Decadal Response to Net Zero CO2 Emissions and Implications for Emissions Policy S. Jenkins et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101047
- Normalizing the permafrost carbon feedback contribution to the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Emissions and the Zero Emissions Commitment N. Steinert & B. Sanderson https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1711-2025
- Multi-century cooling after net-zero greenhouse gas emissions N. Tarshish et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02700-2
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Latest update: 12 Aug 2026
Short summary
Permafrost soils hold about twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. As the Earth warms the organic matter in these soils will decay, releasing CO2 and CH4. It is expected that these soils will continue to release carbon to the atmosphere long after man-made emissions of greenhouse gases cease. Here we use a method employing hundreds of slightly varying model versions to estimate how much warming permafrost carbon will cause after human emissions of CO2 end.
Permafrost soils hold about twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. As the Earth warms the...
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