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Articles | Volume 18, issue 17
Articles | Volume 18, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4937-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4937-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 17
Research article
 | 
10 Sep 2021
Research article |  | 10 Sep 2021

Estimated effect of the permafrost carbon feedback on the zero emissions commitment to climate change

Andrew H. MacDougall

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Cited articles

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Avis, C. A.: Simulating the present-day and future distribution of permafrost in the UVic Earth system climate model, PhD thesis, University of Victoria, 2012. a, b
Avis, C. A., Weaver, A. J., and Meissner, K. J.: Reduction in areal extent of high–latitude wetlands in response to permafrost thaw, Nat. Geosci., 4, 444–448, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1160, 2011. a, b
Burke, E. J., Hartley, I. P., and Jones, C. D.: Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing, The Cryosphere, 6, 1063–1076, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1063-2012, 2012. a
Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Jones, C. D., Spall, S. A., and Totterdell, I. J.: Modelling vegetation and the carbon cycle as interactive elements of the climate system, Proceedings of the RMS millennium conference, available at: http://terra.seos.uvic.ca/model/common/HCTN_23.pdf (last access: 8 September 2021), 2001. a
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Permafrost soils hold about twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. As the Earth warms the organic matter in these soils will decay, releasing CO2 and CH4. It is expected that these soils will continue to release carbon to the atmosphere long after man-made emissions of greenhouse gases cease. Here we use a method employing hundreds of slightly varying model versions to estimate how much warming permafrost carbon will cause after human emissions of CO2 end.
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