Articles | Volume 19, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Lukas Gudmundsson
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Laibao Liu
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Vincent Humphrey
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland
Sonia I. Seneviratne
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
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Cited
11 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Widespread temporal and spatial variability in net ecosystem productivity under climate change H. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.008
- Investigating Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Over India Using Multimodel Simulations of Gross Primary Productivity and Satellite‐Based Biophysical Product G. Uchale et al. 10.1029/2023JG007468
- No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability L. Liu et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01504-6
- Simulating the Sustainable Impact of Land Use Change on Carbon Emissions in the Upper Yellow River of Gannan: A Multi-Scenario Perspective Based on the PLUS Model Y. Zhao et al. 10.3390/su16135481
- CMIP6 models agree on similar carbon cycle feedbacks between enhancing terrestrial and marine carbon sinks H. Wey et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adc617
- Gross primary productivity and the predictability of CO2: more uncertainty in what we predict than how well we predict it I. Dunkl et al. 10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023
- Compensatory effects conceal large uncertainties in the modelled processes behind the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and CO2 I. Dunkl et al. 10.5194/esd-16-151-2025
- Spatiotemporal Variation and Driving Factors of Carbon Sequestration Rate in Terrestrial Ecosystems of Ningxia, China Y. Zhang et al. 10.3390/land14010094
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- The Impact of Climate Forcing Biases and the Nitrogen Cycle on Land Carbon Balance Projections C. Seiler et al. 10.1029/2023MS003749
- Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections R. Padrón et al. 10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022
10 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Widespread temporal and spatial variability in net ecosystem productivity under climate change H. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.008
- Investigating Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Over India Using Multimodel Simulations of Gross Primary Productivity and Satellite‐Based Biophysical Product G. Uchale et al. 10.1029/2023JG007468
- No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability L. Liu et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01504-6
- Simulating the Sustainable Impact of Land Use Change on Carbon Emissions in the Upper Yellow River of Gannan: A Multi-Scenario Perspective Based on the PLUS Model Y. Zhao et al. 10.3390/su16135481
- CMIP6 models agree on similar carbon cycle feedbacks between enhancing terrestrial and marine carbon sinks H. Wey et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adc617
- Gross primary productivity and the predictability of CO2: more uncertainty in what we predict than how well we predict it I. Dunkl et al. 10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023
- Compensatory effects conceal large uncertainties in the modelled processes behind the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and CO2 I. Dunkl et al. 10.5194/esd-16-151-2025
- Spatiotemporal Variation and Driving Factors of Carbon Sequestration Rate in Terrestrial Ecosystems of Ningxia, China Y. Zhang et al. 10.3390/land14010094
- Large spread in interannual variance of atmospheric CO2 concentration across CMIP6 Earth System Models V. Martín-Gómez et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00532-x
- The Impact of Climate Forcing Biases and the Nitrogen Cycle on Land Carbon Balance Projections C. Seiler et al. 10.1029/2023MS003749
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
Short summary
The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until 2100 is different for each Earth system model. We find that differences across models are primarily explained by the annual land carbon sink dependence on temperature and soil moisture, followed by the dependence on CO2 air concentration, and by average climate conditions. Our insights on why each model projects a relatively high or low land carbon sink can help to reduce the underlying uncertainty.
The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until...
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