Biogeosciences
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Articles | Volume 20, issue 16
Articles | Volume 20, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 16
Research article
 | 
23 Aug 2023
Research article |  | 23 Aug 2023

Gross primary productivity and the predictability of CO2: more uncertainty in what we predict than how well we predict it

István Dunkl, Nicole Lovenduski, Alessio Collalti, Vivek K. Arora, Tatiana Ilyina, and Victor Brovkin

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Latest update: 28 Oct 2025
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Short summary
Despite differences in the reproduction of gross primary productivity (GPP) by Earth system models (ESMs), ESMs have similar predictability of the global carbon cycle. We found that, although GPP variability originates from different regions and is driven by different climatic variables across the ESMs, the ESMs rely on the same mechanisms to predict their own GPP. This shows that the predictability of the carbon cycle is limited by our understanding of variability rather than predictability.
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