Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1923-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1923-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 17 Apr 2024
| 17 Apr 2024
Timescale dependence of airborne fraction and underlying climate–carbon-cycle feedbacks for weak perturbations in CMIP5 models
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany
The Land in the Earth System Department, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
Julia Pongratz
The Land in the Earth System Department, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Christian H. Reick
The Land in the Earth System Department, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
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Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 501–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-501-2021, 2021
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Linear response functions are a powerful tool to both predict and investigate the dynamics of a system when subjected to small perturbations. In practice, these functions must often be derived from perturbation experiment data. Nevertheless, current methods for this identification require a tailored perturbation experiment, often with many realizations. We present a method that instead derives these functions from a single realization of an experiment driven by any type of perturbation.
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Changes in land use are crucial to achieve lower global warming. However, despite their importance, the effects of these changes on moisture fluxes are poorly understood. We analyse land cover and management scenarios in three climate models involving cropland expansion, afforestation, and irrigation. Results show largely consistent influences on moisture fluxes, with cropland expansion causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation show the opposite.
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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Matthew J. McGrath, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Philippe Peylin, Robbie M. Andrew, Bradley Matthews, Frank Dentener, Juraj Balkovič, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Gregoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Ian Harris, Matthew Jones, Jürgen Knauer, Matthias Kuhnert, Guillaume Monteil, Saqr Munassar, Paul I. Palmer, Glen P. Peters, Chunjing Qiu, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Oksana Tarasova, Matteo Vizzarri, Karina Winkler, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antoine Berchet, Peter Briggs, Patrick Brockmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Sara Filipek, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Fuchs, Michael Gauss, Christoph Gerbig, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Richard A. Houghton, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ronny Lauerwald, Bas Lerink, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Géraud Moulas, Marilena Muntean, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Aurélie Paquirissamy, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, Roberto Pilli, Julia Pongratz, Pierre Regnier, Marko Scholze, Yusuf Serengil, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Rona L. Thompson, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, and Sophia Walther
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4295–4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, 2023
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Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
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This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 629–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, 2023
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Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occur and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, 2023
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Land cover and management changes can affect the climate and water availability. In this study we use climate model simulations of extreme global land cover changes (afforestation, deforestation) and land management changes (irrigation) to understand the effects on the global water cycle and local to continental water availability. We show that cropland expansion generally leads to higher evaporation and lower amounts of precipitation and afforestation and irrigation expansion to the opposite.
Giacomo Grassi, Clemens Schwingshackl, Thomas Gasser, Richard A. Houghton, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Alessandro Cescatti, Philippe Ciais, Sandro Federici, Pierre Friedlingstein, Werner A. Kurz, Maria J. Sanz Sanchez, Raúl Abad Viñas, Ramdane Alkama, Selma Bultan, Guido Ceccherini, Stefanie Falk, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Anu Korosuo, Joana Melo, Matthew J. McGrath, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Anna A. Romanovskaya, Simone Rossi, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1093–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, 2023
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Striking differences exist in estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes between the national greenhouse gas inventories and the IPCC assessment reports. These differences hamper an accurate assessment of the collective progress under the Paris Agreement. By implementing an approach that conceptually reconciles land-use CO2 flux from national inventories and the global models used by the IPCC, our study is an important step forward for increasing confidence in land-use CO2 flux estimates.
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 101–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, 2023
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For the first time, our decadal prediction system based on Max Planck Institute Earth System Model enables prognostic atmospheric CO2 with an interactive carbon cycle. The evolution of CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 growth is reconstructed well by assimilating data products; retrospective predictions show high confidence in predicting changes in the next year. The Earth system predictions provide valuable inputs for understanding the global carbon cycle and informing climate-relevant policy.
Rainer Schneck, Veronika Gayler, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Thomas Raddatz, Christian H. Reick, and Reiner Schnur
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8581–8611, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8581-2022, 2022
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The versions of ICON-A and ICON-Land/JSBACHv4 used for this study constitute the first milestone in the development of the new ICON Earth System Model ICON-ESM. JSBACHv4 is the successor of JSBACHv3, and most of the parameterizations of JSBACHv4 are re-implementations from JSBACHv3. We assess and compare the performance of JSBACHv4 and JSBACHv3. Overall, the JSBACHv4 results are as good as JSBACHv3, but both models reveal the same main shortcomings, e.g. the depiction of the leaf area index.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1305–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, 2022
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Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation, and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occurs and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frédéric Chevallier, Ronny Lauerwald, Ben Poulter, Josep G. Canadell, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Atul Jain, Matthew Jones, Masayuki Kondo, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Prabir K. Patra, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Shilong Piao, Chunjing Qiu, Celso Von Randow, Pierre Regnier, Marielle Saunois, Robert Scholes, Anatoly Shvidenko, Hanqin Tian, Hui Yang, Xuhui Wang, and Bo Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1289–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, 2022
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The second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) will provide updated quantification and process understanding of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions and sinks for ten regions of the globe. In this paper, we give definitions, review different methods, and make recommendations for estimating different components of the total land–atmosphere carbon exchange for each region in a consistent and complete approach.
Jan C. Minx, William F. Lamb, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Monica Crippa, Niklas Döbbeling, Piers M. Forster, Diego Guizzardi, Jos Olivier, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Rigby, Marielle Saunois, Steven J. Smith, Efisio Solazzo, and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5213–5252, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, 2021
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We provide a synthetic dataset on anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. We show that GHG emissions continued to rise across all gases and sectors. Annual average GHG emissions growth slowed, but absolute decadal increases have never been higher in human history. We identify a number of data gaps and data quality issues in global inventories and highlight their importance for monitoring progress towards international climate goals.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Andrew J. Pitman, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Anthony P. Walker, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 5639–5668, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, 2021
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The Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, yet the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations by an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models over Australia and highlighted a number of key areas that lead to model divergence on both short (inter-annual) and long (decadal) timescales.
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
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Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. We assess vegetation vulnerability to the hot and dry summers in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and find the important role of inter-annual legacy effects from 2018 in modulating the impacts of the 2019 event.
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça, Julia Pongratz, and Christian H. Reick
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 501–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-501-2021, 2021
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Linear response functions are a powerful tool to both predict and investigate the dynamics of a system when subjected to small perturbations. In practice, these functions must often be derived from perturbation experiment data. Nevertheless, current methods for this identification require a tailored perturbation experiment, often with many realizations. We present a method that instead derives these functions from a single realization of an experiment driven by any type of perturbation.
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça, Julia Pongratz, and Christian H. Reick
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 533–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-533-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-533-2021, 2021
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We apply a new identification method to derive the response functions that characterize the sensitivity of the land carbon cycle to CO2 perturbations in an Earth system model. By means of these response functions, which generalize the usually employed single-valued sensitivities, we can reliably predict the response of the land carbon to weak perturbations. Further, we demonstrate how by this new method one can robustly derive and interpret internal spectra of timescales of the system.
Louise Chini, George Hurtt, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Stephen Sitch, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Lei Ma, Lesley Ott, Julia Pongratz, and Benjamin Poulter
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4175–4189, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4175-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4175-2021, 2021
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Carbon emissions from land-use change are a large and uncertain component of the global carbon cycle. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset was developed as an input to carbon and climate simulations and has been updated annually for the Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2 updates and describe the 2019 version which used new cropland and grazing land data inputs for the globally important region of Brazil.
Ana Bastos, Kerstin Hartung, Tobias B. Nützel, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Richard A. Houghton, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 745–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021, 2021
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Fluxes from land-use change and management (FLUC) are a large source of uncertainty in global and regional carbon budgets. Here, we evaluate the impact of different model parameterisations on FLUC. We show that carbon stock densities and allocation of carbon following transitions contribute more to uncertainty in FLUC than response-curve time constants. Uncertainty in FLUC could thus, in principle, be reduced by available Earth-observation data on carbon densities at a global scale.
Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Louise Chini, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Felix Havermann, George C. Hurtt, Tammas Loughran, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tobias Nützel, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 763–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021, 2021
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In this study, we model the relative importance of several contributors to the land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) flux based on a LULCC dataset including uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty of LULCC is as relevant as applying wood harvest and gross transitions for the cumulative LULCC flux over the industrial period. However, LULCC uncertainty matters less than the other two factors for the LULCC flux in 2014; historical LULCC uncertainty is negligible for estimates of future scenarios.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Matthew J. McGrath, Robbie M. Andrew, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Francesco N. Tubiello, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Pongratz, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, Matthias Kuhnert, Juraj Balkovič, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Hugo A. C. Denier van der
Gon, Efisio Solazzo, Chunjing Qiu, Roberto Pilli, Igor B. Konovalov, Richard A. Houghton, Dirk Günther, Lucia Perugini, Monica Crippa, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Pete Smith, Saqr Munassar, Rona L. Thompson, Giulia Conchedda, Guillaume Monteil, Marko Scholze, Ute Karstens, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2363–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CO2 fossil emissions and CO2 land fluxes in the EU27+UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with ecosystem data, land carbon models and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling CO2 estimates with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and facilitating real-time verification procedures.
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
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We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes from land use and land cover changes (fLULCCs) by using the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models used in the 2019 global carbon budget. We find huge regional fLULCC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods, and the timing of land use and land cover changes, and we argue for a method consistent across time and space and for carefully choosing the accounting period.
Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, 2021
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All state-of-the-art global climate models that contributed to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a robust increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall that is even stronger than in the previous intercomparison (CMIP5). Furthermore, they show an increase in the year-to-year variability of this seasonal rainfall that crucially influences the livelihood of more than 1 billion people in India.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
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The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
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We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Glen P. Peters, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Philippe Ciais, Francesco N. Tubiello, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Adrian Leip, Gema Carmona-Garcia, Wilfried Winiwarter, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Dirk Günther, Efisio Solazzo, Anja Kiesow, Ana Bastos, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Giulia Conchedda, Roberto Pilli, Robbie M. Andrew, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, and Albertus J. Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 961–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-961-2020, 2020
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up GHG anthropogenic emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in the EU28. The data integrate recent AFOLU emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models, aiming at reconciling GHG budgets with official country-level UNFCCC inventories. We provide comprehensive emission assessments in support to policy, facilitating real-time verification procedures.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
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The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Johannes Winckler, Christian H. Reick, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Alessandro Cescatti, Paul C. Stoy, Quentin Lejeune, Thomas Raddatz, Andreas Chlond, Marvin Heidkamp, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 473–484, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-473-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-473-2019, 2019
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For local living conditions, it matters whether deforestation influences the surface temperature, temperature at 2 m, or the temperature higher up in the atmosphere. Here, simulations with a climate model show that at a location of deforestation, surface temperature generally changes more strongly than atmospheric temperature. Comparison across climate models shows that both for summer and winter the surface temperature response exceeds the air temperature response locally by a factor of 2.
Rasoul Yousefpour, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 16, 241–254, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-241-2019, 2019
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Global forest resources are accounted for to establish their potential to sink carbon in woody biomass. Climate prediction models realize the effects of future global forest utilization rates, defined by population demand and its evolution over time. However, forest management approaches consider the supply side to realize a sustainable forest carbon stock and adapt the harvest rates to novel climate conditions. This study simulates such an adaptive sustained
yield approach.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Gregory Duveiller, Giovanni Forzieri, Eddy Robertson, Wei Li, Goran Georgievski, Peter Lawrence, Andy Wiltshire, Philippe Ciais, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Almut Arneth, and Alessandro Cescatti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1265–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, 2018
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Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth's surface can alter the local energy balance, which can result in a local warming or cooling depending on the specific vegetation transition, its timing and location, as well as on the background climate. While models can theoretically simulate these effects, their skill is not well documented across space and time. Here we provide a dedicated framework to evaluate such models against measurements derived from satellite observations.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, and Christian Reick
Clim. Past, 14, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, 2018
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We find a rapid increase in simulated dust deposition between 6 and
4 ka BP that is fairly consistent with an abrupt change in dust deposition that was observed in marine sediment records at around 5 ka BP. This rapid change is caused by a rapid increase in simulated dust emissions in the western Sahara due to a fast decline in vegetation cover and a locally strong reduction of lake area. Our study identifies spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the transition of the North African landscape.
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
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Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Sirisha Kalidindi, Christian H. Reick, Thomas Raddatz, and Martin Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 739–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-739-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-739-2018, 2018
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Using climate simulations, we investigate the role of water recycling in shaping the climate of low-obliquity Earth-like terra-planets. By such a mechanism feeding water back from the extra-tropics to the tropics, the planet can assume two drastically different climate states differing by more than 35 K in global temperature. We describe the bifurcation between the two states occurring upon changes in surface albedo and argue that the bistability hints at a wider habitable zone for such planets.
Markus Adloff, Christian H. Reick, and Martin Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 413–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-413-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-413-2018, 2018
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Computer simulations show that during an ice age a strong atmospheric CO2 increase would have resulted in stronger carbon uptake of the continents than today. Causes are the larger potential of glacial vegetation to increase its photosynthetic efficiency under increasing CO2 and the smaller amount of carbon in extratropical soils during an ice age that can be released under greenhouse warming. Hence, for different climates the Earth system is differently sensitive to carbon cycle perturbations.
Vivienne P. Groner, Thomas Raddatz, Christian H. Reick, and Martin Claussen
Biogeosciences, 15, 1947–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1947-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1947-2018, 2018
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We show that plant functional diversity significantly affects climate–vegetation interaction and the climate–vegetation system stability in response to external forcing using a series of coupled land–atmosphere simulation. Our findings raise the question of how realistically Earth system models can actually represent climate–vegetation interaction, considering the incomplete representation of plant functional diversity in the current generation of land surface models.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
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We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Sylvia S. Nyawira, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Axel Don, Victor Brovkin, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 13, 5661–5675, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, 2016
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We introduce an approach applicable to dynamic global vegetation models for evaluating simulated soil carbon changes from land-use changes against meta-analyses. The approach makes use of the large spatial coverage of the observations, and accounts for different ages of the sampled land-use transitions. The evaluation offers an opportunity for identifying causes of model–data discrepancies. Applied to the model JSBACH, we find that introducing crop harvest substantially improves the results.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Jonathan Barichivich, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, Julia Pongratz, Nicolas Viovy, and Cathy M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, 2016
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The ice-core record shows a stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, despite continued emissions from fossil fuel burning and land-use change (LUC). We use up-to-date reconstructions of the CO2 sources and sinks over the 20th century to evaluate whether these capture the CO2 plateau and to test the previously proposed hypothesis. Both strong terrestrial sink, possibly due to LUC not fully accounted for in the records, and enhanced oceanic uptake are necessary to explain this stall.
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
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Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
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How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Victoria Naipal, Christian Reick, Kristof Van Oost, Thomas Hoffmann, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 407–423, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-407-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-407-2016, 2016
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We present a new large-scale coarse-resolution sediment budget model that is compatible with Earth system models and simulates sediment dynamics in floodplains and on hillslopes. We applied this model on the Rhine catchment for the last millennium, and found that the model reproduces the spatial distribution of sediment storage and the scaling relationships as found in observations. We also identified that land use change explains most of the temporal variability in sediment storage.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, Christian Reick, and Tanja Stanelle
Clim. Past, 12, 1009–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, 2016
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We demonstrate for the first time the direct link between dust accumulation in marine sediment cores and Saharan land surface by simulating the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial dust cycle as a function of Saharan land surface cover and atmosphere-ocean conditions using the coupled atmosphere-aerosol model ECHAM6-HAM2.1. Mid-Holocene surface characteristics, including vegetation cover and lake surface area, are derived from proxy data and simulations.
V. P. Groner, M. Claussen, and C. Reick
Clim. Past, 11, 1361–1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1361-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1361-2015, 2015
V. Naipal, C. Reick, J. Pongratz, and K. Van Oost
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2893–2913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2893-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2893-2015, 2015
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We adjusted the topographical and rainfall erosivity factors that are the triggers of erosion in the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model to make the model better applicable at coarse resolution on a global scale. The adjusted RUSLE model compares much better to current high resolution estimates of soil erosion in the USA and Europe. It therefore provides a basis for estimating past and future global impacts of soil erosion on climate with the use of Earth system models.
M. Baudena, S. C. Dekker, P. M. van Bodegom, B. Cuesta, S. I. Higgins, V. Lehsten, C. H. Reick, M. Rietkerk, S. Scheiter, Z. Yin, M. A. Zavala, and V. Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 12, 1833–1848, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1833-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1833-2015, 2015
L. R. Boysen, V. Brovkin, V. K. Arora, P. Cadule, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, E. Kato, J. Pongratz, and V. Gayler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 309–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-309-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-309-2014, 2014
S. Wilkenskjeld, S. Kloster, J. Pongratz, T. Raddatz, and C. H. Reick
Biogeosciences, 11, 4817–4828, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4817-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4817-2014, 2014
J. Pongratz, C. H. Reick, R. A. Houghton, and J. I. House
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 177–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-177-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-177-2014, 2014
H. F. Goessling and C. H. Reick
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4133–4142, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4133-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4133-2013, 2013
H. F. Goessling and C. H. Reick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5567–5585, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5567-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5567-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Biogeochemistry: Greenhouse Gases
Explainable machine learning for modeling of net ecosystem exchange in boreal forests
Dynamics of CO2 and CH4 fluxes in Red Sea mangrove soils
Nitrous oxide (N2O) in Macquarie Harbour, Tasmania
Technical note: A low-cost, automatic soil–plant–atmosphere enclosure system to investigate CO2 and evapotranspiration flux dynamics
Tidal influence on carbon dioxide and methane fluxes from tree stems and soils in mangrove forests
Drought conditions disrupt atmospheric carbon uptake in a Mediterranean saline lake
Physicochemical perturbation increases nitrous oxide production from denitrification in soils and sediments
Carbon degradation and mobilisation potentials of thawing permafrost peatlands in northern Norway inferred from laboratory incubations
Seasonal dynamics and regional distribution patterns of CO2 and CH4 in the north-eastern Baltic Sea
Interannual and seasonal variability of the air–sea CO2 exchange at Utö in the coastal region of the Baltic Sea
CO2 emissions of drained coastal peatlands in the Netherlands and potential emission reduction by water infiltration systems
Seasonal and inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes in southern Africa seen by GOSAT
Influence of wind strength and direction on diffusive methane fluxes and atmospheric methane concentrations above the North Sea
Eddy covariance fluxes of CO2, CH4 and N2O on a drained peatland forest after clearcutting
Eddy Covariance Evaluation of Ecosystem Fluxes at a Temperate Saltmarsh in Victoria, Australia Shows Large CO2 Uptake
Using eddy covariance observations to determine the carbon sequestration characteristics of subalpine forests in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
Isotopomer labeling and oxygen dependence of hybrid nitrous oxide production
The emission of CO from tropical rainforest soils
Interferences caused by the microbial methane cycle during the assessment of abandoned oil and gas wells
Carbon sequestration in different urban vegetation types in Southern Finland
Modelling CO2 and N2O emissions from soils in silvopastoral systems of the West African Sahelian band
Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000–2020
A case study on topsoil removal and rewetting for paludiculture: effect on biogeochemistry and greenhouse gas emissions from Typha latifolia, Typha angustifolia, and Azolla filiculoides
Seasonal carbon fluxes from vegetation and soil in a Mediterranean non-tidal salt marsh
Assessing improvements in global ocean pCO2 machine learning reconstructions with Southern Ocean autonomous sampling
Proglacial methane emissions driven by meltwater and groundwater flushing in a high Arctic glacial catchment
Technical note: Preventing CO2 overestimation from mercuric or copper(II) chloride preservation of dissolved greenhouse gases in freshwater samples
Exploring temporal and spatial variation of nitrous oxide flux using several years of peatland forest automatic chamber data
Diurnal versus spatial variability of greenhouse gas emissions from an anthropogenically modified lowland river in Germany
Regional assessment and uncertainty analysis of carbon and nitrogen balances at cropland scale using the ecosystem model LandscapeDNDC
Resolving heterogeneous fluxes from tundra halves the growing season carbon budget
Lawns and meadows in urban green space – a comparison from perspectives of greenhouse gases, drought resilience and plant functional types
Large contribution of soil N2O emission to the global warming potential of a large-scale oil palm plantation despite changing from conventional to reduced management practices
Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in Northern Europe
Identifying landscape hot and cold spots of soil greenhouse gas fluxes by combining field measurements and remote sensing data
Enhanced Southern Ocean CO2 outgassing as a result of stronger and poleward shifted southern hemispheric westerlies
Spatial and temporal variability of methane emissions and environmental conditions in a hyper-eutrophic fishpond
Optical and radar Earth observation data for upscaling methane emissions linked to permafrost degradation in sub-Arctic peatlands in northern Sweden
Herbivore–shrub interactions influence ecosystem respiration and biogenic volatile organic compound composition in the subarctic
Methane emissions due to reservoir flushing: a significant emission pathway?
Carbon dioxide and methane fluxes from mounds of African fungus-growing termites
Diel and seasonal methane dynamics in the shallow and turbulent Wadden Sea
Technical note: Skirt chamber – an open dynamic method for the rapid and minimally intrusive measurement of greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands
Seasonal variability of nitrous oxide concentrations and emissions in a temperate estuary
Reviews and syntheses: Recent advances in microwave remote sensing in support of terrestrial carbon cycle science in Arctic–boreal regions
Simulated methane emissions from Arctic ponds are highly sensitive to warming
Water-table-driven greenhouse gas emission estimates guide peatland restoration at national scale
Relationships between greenhouse gas production and landscape position during short-term permafrost thaw under anaerobic conditions in the Lena Delta
Carbon emissions and radiative forcings from tundra wildfires in the Yukon–Kuskokwim River Delta, Alaska
Carbon monoxide (CO) cycling in the Fram Strait, Arctic Ocean
Ekaterina Ezhova, Topi Laanti, Anna Lintunen, Pasi Kolari, Tuomo Nieminen, Ivan Mammarella, Keijo Heljanko, and Markku Kulmala
Biogeosciences, 22, 257–288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-257-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-257-2025, 2025
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Machine learning (ML) models are gaining popularity in biogeosciences. They are applied as gap-filling methods and used to upscale carbon fluxes to larger areas. Here we use explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods to elucidate the performance of machine learning models for carbon dioxide fluxes in boreal forests. We show that statistically equal models treat input variables differently. XAI methods can help scientists make informed decisions when applying ML models in their research.
Jessica Breavington, Alexandra Steckbauer, Chuancheng Fu, Mongi Ennasri, and Carlos M. Duarte
Biogeosciences, 22, 117–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-117-2025, 2025
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Mangrove carbon storage in the Red Sea is lower than average due to challenging growth conditions. We collected mangrove soil cores over multiple seasons to measure greenhouse gas (GHG) flux of carbon dioxide and methane. GHG emissions are a small offset to mangrove carbon storage overall but punctuated by periods of high emission. This variation is linked to environmental and soil properties, which were also measured. The findings aid understanding of GHG dynamics in arid mangrove ecosystems.
Johnathan Daniel Maxey, Neil D. Hartstein, Hermann W. Bange, and Moritz Müller
Biogeosciences, 21, 5613–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5613-2024, 2024
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The distribution of N2O in fjord-like estuaries is poorly described in the Southern Hemisphere. Our study describes N2O distribution and its drivers in one such system in Macquarie Harbour, Tasmania. Water samples were collected seasonally in 2022 and 2023. Results show the system removes atmospheric N2O when river flow is high, whereas the system emits N2O when the river flow is low. N2O generated in basins is intercepted by the surface water and exported to the ocean during high river flow.
Wael Al Hamwi, Maren Dubbert, Jörg Schaller, Matthias Lück, Marten Schmidt, and Mathias Hoffmann
Biogeosciences, 21, 5639–5651, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5639-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5639-2024, 2024
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We present a fully automatic, low-cost soil–plant enclosure system to monitor CO2 and evapotranspiration fluxes within greenhouse experiments. It operates in two modes: independent, using low-cost sensors, and dependent, where multiple chambers connect to a single gas analyzer via a low-cost multiplexer. This system provides precise, accurate measurements and high temporal resolution, enabling comprehensive monitoring of plant–soil responses to various treatments and conditions.
Zhao-Jun Yong, Wei-Jen Lin, Chiao-Wen Lin, and Hsing-Juh Lin
Biogeosciences, 21, 5247–5260, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5247-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5247-2024, 2024
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We measured CO2 and CH4 fluxes from mangrove stems and soils of Avicennia marina and Kandelia obovata during tidal cycles. Both stem types served as CO2 and CH4 sources, emitting less CH4 than soils, with no difference in CO2 flux. While A. marina stems showed increased CO2 fluxes from low to high tides, they acted as a CH4 sink before flooding and as a source after ebbing. However, K. obovata stems showed no flux pattern. This study highlights the need to consider tidal influence and species.
Ihab Alfadhel, Ignacio Peralta-Maraver, Isabel Reche, Enrique P. Sánchez-Cañete, Sergio Aranda-Barranco, Eva Rodríguez-Velasco, Andrew S. Kowalski, and Penélope Serrano-Ortiz
Biogeosciences, 21, 5117–5129, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5117-2024, 2024
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Inland saline lakes are crucial in the global carbon cycle, but increased droughts may alter their carbon exchange capacity. We measured CO2 and CH4 fluxes in a Mediterranean saline lake using the eddy covariance method under dry and wet conditions. We found the lake acts as a carbon sink during wet periods but not during droughts. These results highlight the importance of saline lakes in carbon sequestration and their vulnerability to climate-change-induced droughts.
Nathaniel B. Weston, Cynthia Troy, Patrick J. Kearns, Jennifer L. Bowen, William Porubsky, Christelle Hyacinthe, Christof Meile, Philippe Van Cappellen, and Samantha B. Joye
Biogeosciences, 21, 4837–4851, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4837-2024, 2024
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Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent greenhouse and ozone-depleting gas produced largely from microbial nitrogen cycling processes, and human activities have resulted in increases in atmospheric N2O. We investigate the role of physical and chemical disturbances to soils and sediments in N2O production. We demonstrate that physicochemical perturbation increases N2O production, microbial community adapts over time, and initial perturbation appears to confer resilience to subsequent disturbance.
Sigrid Trier Kjær, Sebastian Westermann, Nora Nedkvitne, and Peter Dörsch
Biogeosciences, 21, 4723–4737, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4723-2024, 2024
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Permafrost peatlands are thawing due to climate change, releasing large quantities of carbon that degrades upon thawing and is released as CO2, CH4 or dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We incubated thawed Norwegian permafrost peat plateaus and thermokarst pond sediment found next to permafrost for up to 350 d to measure carbon loss. CO2 production was initially the highest, whereas CH4 production increased over time. The largest carbon loss was measured at the top of the peat plateau core as DOC.
Silvie Lainela, Erik Jacobs, Stella-Theresa Luik, Gregor Rehder, and Urmas Lips
Biogeosciences, 21, 4495–4519, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4495-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the variability of carbon dioxide and methane in the surface layer of the north-eastern basins of the Baltic Sea in 2018. We show that the shallower coastal areas have considerably higher spatial variability and seasonal amplitude of surface layer pCO2 and cCH4 than measured in the offshore areas of the Baltic Sea. Despite this high variability, caused mostly by coastal physical processes, the average annual air–sea CO2 fluxes differed only marginally between the sub-basins.
Martti Honkanen, Mika Aurela, Juha Hatakka, Lumi Haraguchi, Sami Kielosto, Timo Mäkelä, Jukka Seppälä, Simo-Matti Siiriä, Ken Stenbäck, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, Pasi Ylöstalo, and Lauri Laakso
Biogeosciences, 21, 4341–4359, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4341-2024, 2024
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The exchange of CO2 between the sea and the atmosphere was studied in the Archipelago Sea, Baltic Sea, in 2017–2021, using an eddy covariance technique. The sea acted as a net source of CO2 with an average yearly emission of 27.1 gC m-2 yr-1, indicating that the marine ecosystem respired carbon that originated elsewhere. The yearly CO2 emission varied between 18.2–39.2 gC m-2 yr-1, mostly due to the yearly variation of ecosystem carbon uptake.
Ralf C. H. Aben, Daniël van de Craats, Jim Boonman, Stijn H. Peeters, Bart Vriend, Coline C. F. Boonman, Ype van der Velde, Gilles Erkens, and Merit van den Berg
Biogeosciences, 21, 4099–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4099-2024, 2024
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Drained peatlands cause high CO2 emissions. We assessed the effectiveness of subsurface water infiltration systems (WISs) in reducing CO2 emissions related to increases in water table depth (WTD) on 12 sites for up to 4 years. Results show WISs markedly reduced emissions by 2.1 t CO2-C ha-1 yr-1. The relationship between the amount of carbon above the WTD and CO2 emission was stronger than the relationship between WTD and emission. Long-term monitoring is crucial for accurate emission estimates.
Eva-Marie Metz, Sanam Noreen Vardag, Sourish Basu, Martin Jung, and André Butz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1955, 2024
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We estimate CO2 fluxes in semi-arid southern Africa from 2009 to 2018 based on satellite CO2 measurements and atmospheric inverse modelling. By selecting process-based vegetation models, which agree with the satellite CO2 fluxes, we find that soil respiration mainly drives the seasonality, whereas photosynthesis substantially influences the interannual variability. Our study emphasizes the need of better representing the response of semi-arid ecosystems to soil rewetting in vegetation models.
Ingeborg Bussmann, Eric P. Achterberg, Holger Brix, Nicolas Brüggemann, Götz Flöser, Claudia Schütze, and Philipp Fischer
Biogeosciences, 21, 3819–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3819-2024, 2024
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Methane (CH4) is an important greenhouse gas and contributes to climate warming. However, the input of CH4 from coastal areas to the atmosphere is not well defined. Dissolved and atmospheric CH4 was determined at high spatial resolution in or above the North Sea. The atmospheric CH4 concentration was mainly influenced by wind direction. With our detailed study on the spatial distribution of CH4 fluxes we were able to provide a detailed and more realistic estimation of coastal CH4 fluxes.
Olli-Pekka Tikkasalo, Olli Peltola, Pavel Alekseychik, Juha Heikkinen, Samuli Launiainen, Aleksi Lehtonen, Qian Li, Eduardo Martinez-García, Mikko Peltoniemi, Petri Salovaara, Ville Tuominen, and Raisa Mäkipää
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1994, 2024
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The emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were measured from a clearcut peatland forest site. The measurements covered the whole year of 2022 which was the second growing season after the clearcut. The site was a strong GHG source and the highest emissions came from CO2 followed by N2O and CH4. A statistical model that included information on different surfaces in the site was developed to unravel surface-type specific GHG fluxes.
Ruth Reef, Edoardo Daly, Tivanka Anandappa, Eboni-Jane Vienna-Hallam, Harriet Robertson, Matthew Peck, and Adrien Guyot
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2182, 2024
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Studies show that saltmarshes excel at capturing carbon from the atmosphere. In this study, we measured CO2 flux in an Australian temperate saltmarsh on French Island. The temperate saltmarsh exhibited strong seasonality. During the warmer growing season, the saltmarsh absorbed on average 10.5 grams of CO2 from the atmosphere per m2 daily. Even in winter, when plants were dormant, it continued to be a CO2 sink, albeit smaller. Cool temperatures and high cloud cover inhibit carbon sequestration.
Niu Zhu, Jinniu Wang, Dongliang Luo, Xufeng Wang, Cheng Shen, and Ning Wu
Biogeosciences, 21, 3509–3522, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3509-2024, 2024
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Our study delves into the vital role of subalpine forests in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau as carbon sinks in the context of climate change. Utilizing advanced eddy covariance systems, we uncover their significant carbon sequestration potential, observing distinct seasonal patterns influenced by temperature, humidity, and radiation. Notably, these forests exhibit robust carbon absorption, with potential implications for global carbon balance.
Colette L. Kelly, Nicole M. Travis, Pascale Anabelle Baya, Claudia Frey, Xin Sun, Bess B. Ward, and Karen L. Casciotti
Biogeosciences, 21, 3215–3238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3215-2024, 2024
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Nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas, accumulates in regions of the ocean that are low in dissolved oxygen. We used a novel combination of chemical tracers to determine how nitrous oxide is produced in one of these regions, the eastern tropical North Pacific Ocean. Our experiments showed that the two most important sources of nitrous oxide under low-oxygen conditions are denitrification, an anaerobic process, and a novel “hybrid” process performed by ammonia-oxidizing archaea.
Hella van Asperen, Thorsten Warneke, Alessandro Carioca de Araújo, Bruce Forsberg, Sávio José Filgueiras Ferreira, Thomas Röckmann, Carina van der Veen, Sipko Bulthuis, Leonardo Ramos de Oliveira, Thiago de Lima Xavier, Jailson da Mata, Marta de Oliveira Sá, Paulo Ricardo Teixeira, Julie Andrews de França e Silva, Susan Trumbore, and Justus Notholt
Biogeosciences, 21, 3183–3199, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3183-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3183-2024, 2024
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Carbon monoxide (CO) is regarded as an important indirect greenhouse gas. Soils can emit and take up CO, but, until now, uncertainty remains as to which process dominates in tropical rainforests. We present the first soil CO flux measurements from a tropical rainforest. Based on our observations, we report that tropical rainforest soils are a net source of CO. In addition, we show that valley streams and inundated areas are likely additional hot spots of CO in the ecosystem.
Sebastian F. A. Jordan, Stefan Schloemer, Martin Krüger, Tanja Heffner, Marcus A. Horn, and Martin Blumenberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1461, 2024
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In a multilayered approach, we studied eight cut and buried abandoned oil wells in a peat rich area of Northern Germany for methane flux, soil gas composition, and isotopic signatures of soil methane and carbon dioxide. The detected methane emissions were of biogenic, peat origin and were not associated with the abandoned wells. Additional microbial analysis and methane oxidation rate measurements demonstrated a high methane-emission mitigation potential in the studied peat-soils.
Laura Thölix, Leif Backman, Minttu Havu, Esko Karvinen, Jesse Soininen, Justine Trémeau, Olli Nevalainen, Joyson Ahongshangbam, Leena Järvi, and Liisa Kulmala
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1453, 2024
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Cities seek carbon neutrality and are interested in the sinks of urban vegetation. Measurements are difficult to do which leads to the need for modeling carbon cycle. In this study, we examined the performance of models in estimating carbon sequestration rates in lawns, park trees, and urban forests in Helsinki, Finland. We found that models simulated seasonal and annual variations well. Trees had larger carbon sequestration rates compared with lawns and irrigation often increased carbon sink.
Yélognissè Agbohessou, Claire Delon, Manuela Grippa, Eric Mougin, Daouda Ngom, Espoir Koudjo Gaglo, Ousmane Ndiaye, Paulo Salgado, and Olivier Roupsard
Biogeosciences, 21, 2811–2837, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2811-2024, 2024
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Emissions of greenhouse gases in the Sahel are not well represented because they are considered weak compared to the rest of the world. However, natural areas in the Sahel emit carbon dioxide and nitrous oxides, which need to be assessed because of extended surfaces. We propose an assessment of such emissions in Sahelian silvopastoral systems and of how they are influenced by environmental characteristics. These results are essential to inform climate change strategies in the region.
Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek Müller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Xi Yi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1584, 2024
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This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 per year in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change.
Merit van den Berg, Thomas M. Gremmen, Renske J. E. Vroom, Jacobus van Huissteden, Jim Boonman, Corine J. A. van Huissteden, Ype van der Velde, Alfons J. P. Smolders, and Bas P. van de Riet
Biogeosciences, 21, 2669–2690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2669-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2669-2024, 2024
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Drained peatlands emit 3 % of the global greenhouse gas emissions. Paludiculture is a way to reduce CO2 emissions while at the same time generating an income for landowners. The side effect is the potentially high methane emissions. We found very high methane emissions for broadleaf cattail compared with narrowleaf cattail and water fern. The rewetting was, however, effective to stop CO2 emissions for all species. The highest potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions had narrowleaf cattail.
Lorena Carrasco-Barea, Dolors Verdaguer, Maria Gispert, Xavier D. Quintana, Hélène Bourhis, and Laura Llorens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1320, 2024
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Carbon dioxide fluxes have been measured seasonally in four plant species in a Mediterranean non-tidal salt marsh highlighting the high carbon removal potential that these species have. Carbon dioxide and methane emissions from soil showed high variability among the habitats studied and they were generally higher than those observed in tidal salt marshes. Our results are important to make more accurate predictions regarding carbon emissions from these ecosystems.
Thea H. Heimdal, Galen A. McKinley, Adrienne J. Sutton, Amanda R. Fay, and Lucas Gloege
Biogeosciences, 21, 2159–2176, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2159-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2159-2024, 2024
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Measurements of ocean carbon are limited in time and space. Machine learning algorithms are therefore used to reconstruct ocean carbon where observations do not exist. Improving these reconstructions is important in order to accurately estimate how much carbon the ocean absorbs from the atmosphere. In this study, we find that a small addition of observations from the Southern Ocean, obtained by autonomous sampling platforms, could significantly improve the reconstructions.
Gabrielle Emma Kleber, Leonard Magerl, Alexandra V. Turchyn, Mark Trimmer, Yizhu Zhu, and Andrew Hodson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1273, 2024
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Our research on Svalbard has uncovered that melting glaciers can release large amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. By studying a glacier over two summers, we found that its river was highly concentrated in methane. This suggests that as the Arctic warms and glaciers melt, they could be a significant source of methane emissions. This is the first time such emissions have been measured on Svalbard, indicating a wider environmental concern as similar processes may occur across the Arctic.
François Clayer, Jan Erik Thrane, Kuria Ndungu, Andrew King, Peter Dörsch, and Thomas Rohrlack
Biogeosciences, 21, 1903–1921, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1903-2024, 2024
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Determination of dissolved greenhouse gas (GHG) in freshwater allows us to estimate GHG fluxes. Mercuric chloride (HgCl2) is used to preserve water samples prior to GHG analysis despite its environmental and health impacts and interferences with water chemistry in freshwater. Here, we tested the effects of HgCl2, two substitutes and storage time on GHG in water from two boreal lakes. Preservation with HgCl2 caused overestimation of CO2 concentration with consequences for GHG flux estimation.
Helena Rautakoski, Mika Korkiakoski, Jarmo Mäkelä, Markku Koskinen, Kari Minkkinen, Mika Aurela, Paavo Ojanen, and Annalea Lohila
Biogeosciences, 21, 1867–1886, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1867-2024, 2024
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Current and future nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are difficult to estimate due to their high variability in space and time. Several years of N2O fluxes from drained boreal peatland forest indicate high importance of summer precipitation, winter temperature, and snow conditions in controlling annual N2O emissions. The results indicate increasing year-to-year variation in N2O emissions in changing climate with more extreme seasonal weather conditions.
Matthias Koschorreck, Norbert Kamjunke, Uta Koedel, Michael Rode, Claudia Schuetze, and Ingeborg Bussmann
Biogeosciences, 21, 1613–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1613-2024, 2024
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We measured the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from different sites at the river Elbe in Germany over 3 days to find out what is more important for quantification: small-scale spatial variability or diurnal temporal variability. We found that CO2 emissions were very different between day and night, while CH4 emissions were more different between sites. Dried out river sediments contributed to CO2 emissions, while the side areas of the river were important CH4 sources.
Odysseas Sifounakis, Edwin Haas, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, and Maria P. Papadopoulou
Biogeosciences, 21, 1563–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1563-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1563-2024, 2024
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We performed a full assessment of the carbon and nitrogen cycles of a cropland ecosystem. An uncertainty analysis and quantification of all carbon and nitrogen fluxes were deployed. The inventory simulations include greenhouse gas emissions of N2O, NH3 volatilization and NO3 leaching from arable land cultivation in Greece. The inventory also reports changes in soil organic carbon and nitrogen stocks in arable soils.
Sarah M. Ludwig, Luke Schiferl, Jacqueline Hung, Susan M. Natali, and Roisin Commane
Biogeosciences, 21, 1301–1321, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1301-2024, 2024
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Landscapes are often assumed to be homogeneous when using eddy covariance fluxes, which can lead to biases when calculating carbon budgets. In this study we report eddy covariance carbon fluxes from heterogeneous tundra. We used the footprints of each flux observation to unmix the fluxes coming from components of the landscape. We identified and quantified hot spots of carbon emissions in the landscape. Accurately scaling with landscape heterogeneity yielded half as much regional carbon uptake.
Justine Trémeau, Beñat Olascoaga, Leif Backman, Esko Karvinen, Henriikka Vekuri, and Liisa Kulmala
Biogeosciences, 21, 949–972, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-949-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-949-2024, 2024
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We studied urban lawns and meadows in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland. We found that meadows are more resistant to drought events but that they do not increase carbon sequestration compared with lawns. Moreover, the transformation from lawns to meadows did not demonstrate any negative climate effects in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. Even though social and economic aspects also steer urban development, these results can guide planning to consider carbon-smart options.
Guantao Chen, Edzo Veldkamp, Muhammad Damris, Bambang Irawan, Aiyen Tjoa, and Marife D. Corre
Biogeosciences, 21, 513–529, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-513-2024, 2024
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We established an oil palm management experiment in a large-scale oil palm plantation in Jambi, Indonesia. We recorded oil palm fruit yield and measured soil CO2, N2O, and CH4 fluxes. After 4 years of treatment, compared with conventional fertilization with herbicide weeding, reduced fertilization with mechanical weeding did not reduce yield and soil greenhouse gas emissions, which highlights the legacy effects of over a decade of conventional management prior to the start of the experiment.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Mueller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, 2024
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Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in Northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions and up-scaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions and up-scaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Elizabeth Gachibu Wangari, Ricky Mwangada Mwanake, Tobias Houska, David Kraus, Gretchen Maria Gettel, Ralf Kiese, Lutz Breuer, and Klaus Butterbach-Bahl
Biogeosciences, 20, 5029–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5029-2023, 2023
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Agricultural landscapes act as sinks or sources of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4, or N2O. Various physicochemical and biological processes control the fluxes of these GHGs between ecosystems and the atmosphere. Therefore, fluxes depend on environmental conditions such as soil moisture, soil temperature, or soil parameters, which result in large spatial and temporal variations of GHG fluxes. Here, we describe an example of how this variation may be studied and analyzed.
Laurie C. Menviel, Paul Spence, Andrew E. Kiss, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Hakase Hayashida, Matthew H. England, and Darryn Waugh
Biogeosciences, 20, 4413–4431, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4413-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4413-2023, 2023
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As the ocean absorbs 25% of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on the flux of carbon between the ocean and the atmosphere. Here, we use a very high-resolution ocean, sea-ice, carbon cycle model to show that the capability of the Southern Ocean to uptake CO2 has decreased over the last 40 years due to a strengthening and poleward shift of the southern hemispheric westerlies. This trend is expected to continue over the coming century.
Petr Znachor, Jiří Nedoma, Vojtech Kolar, and Anna Matoušů
Biogeosciences, 20, 4273–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4273-2023, 2023
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We conducted intensive spatial sampling of the hypertrophic fishpond to better understand the spatial dynamics of methane fluxes and environmental heterogeneity in fishponds. The diffusive fluxes of methane accounted for only a minor fraction of the total fluxes and both varied pronouncedly within the pond and over the studied summer season. This could be explained only by the water depth. Wind substantially affected temperature, oxygen and chlorophyll a distribution in the pond.
Sofie Sjögersten, Martha Ledger, Matthias Siewert, Betsabé de la Barreda-Bautista, Andrew Sowter, David Gee, Giles Foody, and Doreen S. Boyd
Biogeosciences, 20, 4221–4239, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4221-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4221-2023, 2023
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Permafrost thaw in Arctic regions is increasing methane emissions, but quantification is difficult given the large and remote areas impacted. We show that UAV data together with satellite data can be used to extrapolate emissions across the wider landscape as well as detect areas at risk of higher emissions. A transition of currently degrading areas to fen type vegetation can increase emission by several orders of magnitude, highlighting the importance of quantifying areas at risk.
Cole G. Brachmann, Tage Vowles, Riikka Rinnan, Mats P. Björkman, Anna Ekberg, and Robert G. Björk
Biogeosciences, 20, 4069–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4069-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4069-2023, 2023
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Herbivores change plant communities through grazing, altering the amount of CO2 and plant-specific chemicals (termed VOCs) emitted. We tested this effect by excluding herbivores and studying the CO2 and VOC emissions. Herbivores reduced CO2 emissions from a meadow community and altered VOC composition; however, community type had the strongest effect on the amount of CO2 and VOCs released. Herbivores can mediate greenhouse gas emissions, but the effect is marginal and community dependent.
Ole Lessmann, Jorge Encinas Fernández, Karla Martínez-Cruz, and Frank Peeters
Biogeosciences, 20, 4057–4068, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4057-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4057-2023, 2023
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Based on a large dataset of seasonally resolved methane (CH4) pore water concentrations in a reservoir's sediment, we assess the significance of CH4 emissions due to reservoir flushing. In the studied reservoir, CH4 emissions caused by one flushing operation can represent 7 %–14 % of the annual CH4 emissions and depend on the timing of the flushing operation. In reservoirs with high sediment loadings, regular flushing may substantially contribute to the overall CH4 emissions.
Matti Räsänen, Risto Vesala, Petri Rönnholm, Laura Arppe, Petra Manninen, Markus Jylhä, Jouko Rikkinen, Petri Pellikka, and Janne Rinne
Biogeosciences, 20, 4029–4042, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4029-2023, 2023
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Fungus-growing termites recycle large parts of dead plant material in African savannas and are significant sources of greenhouse gases. We measured CO2 and CH4 fluxes from their mounds and surrounding soils in open and closed habitats. The fluxes scale with mound volume. The results show that emissions from mounds of fungus-growing termites are more stable than those from other termites. The soil fluxes around the mound are affected by the termite colonies at up to 2 m distance from the mound.
Tim René de Groot, Anne Margriet Mol, Katherine Mesdag, Pierre Ramond, Rachel Ndhlovu, Julia Catherine Engelmann, Thomas Röckmann, and Helge Niemann
Biogeosciences, 20, 3857–3872, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3857-2023, 2023
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This study investigates methane dynamics in the Wadden Sea. Our measurements revealed distinct variations triggered by seasonality and tidal forcing. The methane budget was higher in warmer seasons but surprisingly high in colder seasons. Methane dynamics were amplified during low tides, flushing the majority of methane into the North Sea or releasing it to the atmosphere. Methanotrophic activity was also elevated during low tide but mitigated only a small fraction of the methane efflux.
Frederic Thalasso, Brenda Riquelme, Andrés Gómez, Roy Mackenzie, Francisco Javier Aguirre, Jorge Hoyos-Santillan, Ricardo Rozzi, and Armando Sepulveda-Jauregui
Biogeosciences, 20, 3737–3749, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3737-2023, 2023
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A robust skirt-chamber design to capture and quantify greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands is presented. Compared to standard methods, this design improves the spatial resolution of field studies in remote locations while minimizing intrusion.
Gesa Schulz, Tina Sanders, Yoana G. Voynova, Hermann W. Bange, and Kirstin Dähnke
Biogeosciences, 20, 3229–3247, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3229-2023, 2023
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Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas. However, N2O emissions from estuaries underlie significant uncertainties due to limited data availability and high spatiotemporal variability. We found the Elbe Estuary (Germany) to be a year-round source of N2O, with the highest emissions in winter along with high nitrogen loads. However, in spring and summer, N2O emissions did not decrease alongside lower nitrogen loads because organic matter fueled in situ N2O production along the estuary.
Alex Mavrovic, Oliver Sonnentag, Juha Lemmetyinen, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Christophe Kinnard, and Alexandre Roy
Biogeosciences, 20, 2941–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2941-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2941-2023, 2023
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This review supports the integration of microwave spaceborne information into carbon cycle science for Arctic–boreal regions. The microwave data record spans multiple decades with frequent global observations of soil moisture and temperature, surface freeze–thaw cycles, vegetation water storage, snowpack properties, and land cover. This record holds substantial unexploited potential to better understand carbon cycle processes.
Zoé Rehder, Thomas Kleinen, Lars Kutzbach, Victor Stepanenko, Moritz Langer, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 2837–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, 2023
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We use a new model to investigate how methane emissions from Arctic ponds change with warming. We find that emissions increase substantially. Under annual temperatures 5 °C above present temperatures, pond methane emissions are more than 3 times higher than now. Most of this increase is caused by an increase in plant productivity as plants provide the substrate microbes used to produce methane. We conclude that vegetation changes need to be included in predictions of pond methane emissions.
Julian Koch, Lars Elsgaard, Mogens H. Greve, Steen Gyldenkærne, Cecilie Hermansen, Gregor Levin, Shubiao Wu, and Simon Stisen
Biogeosciences, 20, 2387–2403, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2387-2023, 2023
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Utilizing peatlands for agriculture leads to large emissions of greenhouse gases worldwide. The emissions are triggered by lowering the water table, which is a necessary step in order to make peatlands arable. Many countries aim at reducing their emissions by restoring peatlands, which can be achieved by stopping agricultural activities and thereby raising the water table. We estimate a total emission of 2.6 Mt CO2-eq for organic-rich peatlands in Denmark and a potential reduction of 77 %.
Mélissa Laurent, Matthias Fuchs, Tanja Herbst, Alexandra Runge, Susanne Liebner, and Claire C. Treat
Biogeosciences, 20, 2049–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2049-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2049-2023, 2023
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In this study we investigated the effect of different parameters (temperature, landscape position) on the production of greenhouse gases during a 1-year permafrost thaw experiment. For very similar carbon and nitrogen contents, our results show a strong heterogeneity in CH4 production, as well as in microbial abundance. According to our study, these differences are mainly due to the landscape position and the hydrological conditions established as a result of the topography.
Michael Moubarak, Seeta Sistla, Stefano Potter, Susan M. Natali, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 1537–1557, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1537-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1537-2023, 2023
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Tundra wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity with climate change. We show using a combination of field measurements and computational modeling that tundra wildfires result in a positive feedback to climate change by emitting significant amounts of long-lived greenhouse gasses. With these effects, attention to tundra fires is necessary for mitigating climate change.
Hanna I. Campen, Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, and Hermann W. Bange
Biogeosciences, 20, 1371–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1371-2023, 2023
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Carbon monoxide (CO) is a climate-relevant trace gas emitted from the ocean. However, oceanic CO cycling is understudied. Results from incubation experiments conducted in the Fram Strait (Arctic Ocean) indicated that (i) pH did not affect CO cycling and (ii) enhanced CO production and consumption were positively correlated with coloured dissolved organic matter and nitrate concentrations. This suggests microbial CO uptake to be the driving factor for CO cycling in the Arctic Ocean.
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Short summary
We study the timescale dependence of airborne fraction and underlying feedbacks by a theory of the climate–carbon system. Using simulations we show the predictive power of this theory and find that (1) this fraction generally decreases for increasing timescales and (2) at all timescales the total feedback is negative and the model spread in a single feedback causes the spread in the airborne fraction. Our study indicates that those are properties of the system, independently of the scenario.
We study the timescale dependence of airborne fraction and underlying feedbacks by a theory of...
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