Articles | Volume 21, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4809-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4809-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Nov 2024
Research article |
| 05 Nov 2024
| 05 Nov 2024
New ozone–nitrogen model shows early senescence onset is the primary cause of ozone-induced reduction in grain quality of wheat
Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK
Clare Brewster
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, LL57 2UW, UK
Felicity Hayes
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, LL57 2UW, UK
Nathan Booth
Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK
Sam Bland
Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK
Pritha Pande
Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK
Samarthia Thankappan
Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK
Håkan Pleijel
Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, 40530 Gothenburg, Sweden
Lisa Emberson
Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK
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Jo Cook, Durgesh Singh Yadav, Felicity Hayes, Nathan Booth, Sam Bland, Pritha Pande, Samarthia Thankappan, and Lisa Emberson
Biogeosciences, 22, 1035–1056, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1035-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1035-2025, 2025
Short summary
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Ozone (O3) pollution reduces wheat yields and quality in India, affecting amino acids essential for nutrition, like lysine and methionine. Here, we improve the DO3SE-CropN model to simulate wheat’s protective processes against O3 and their impact on protein and amino acid concentrations. While the model captures O3-induced yield losses, it underestimates amino acid reductions. Further research is needed to refine the model, enabling future risk assessments of O3's impact on yields and nutrition.
Pritha Pande, Sam Bland, Nathan Booth, Jo Cook, Zhaozhong Feng, and Lisa Emberson
Biogeosciences, 22, 181–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-181-2025, 2025
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The DO3SE-Crop model extends the DO3SE to simulate ozone's impact on crops with modules for ozone uptake, damage, and crop growth from JULES-crop. It's versatile, suits China's varied agriculture, and improves yield predictions under ozone stress. It is essential for policy, water management, and climate response, and it integrates into Earth system models for a comprehensive understanding of agriculture's interaction with global systems.
Gabriella Everett, Øivind Hodnebrog, Madhoolika Agrawal, Durgesh Singh Yadav, Connie O'Neill, Chubamenla Jamir, Jo Cook, Pritha Pande, and Lisa Emberson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3371, 2024
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Ground-level ozone (O3), heat, and water stress (WS) reduce wheat yields, threatening food security in India. O3, heat, and WS interact as stressed plants close stomata, limiting O3 entry and damage. This study models O3 uptake under rainfed (WS) and irrigated conditions for current and future climates. Results show little O3-related yield loss under wWS but higher losses with irrigation. Both climate scenarios increase O3-related losses, highlighting risks to India’s wheat productivity.
Anam M. Khan, Olivia E. Clifton, Jesse O. Bash, Sam Bland, Nathan Booth, Philip Cheung, Lisa Emberson, Johannes Flemming, Erick Fredj, Stefano Galmarini, Laurens Ganzeveld, Orestis Gazetas, Ignacio Goded, Christian Hogrefe, Christopher D. Holmes, László Horváth, Vincent Huijnen, Qian Li, Paul A. Makar, Ivan Mammarella, Giovanni Manca, J. William Munger, Juan L. Pérez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Limei Ran, Roberto San Jose, Donna Schwede, Sam J. Silva, Ralf Staebler, Shihan Sun, Amos P. K. Tai, Eran Tas, Timo Vesala, Tamás Weidinger, Zhiyong Wu, Leiming Zhang, and Paul C. Stoy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8613–8635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8613-2025, 2025
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Vegetation removes tropospheric ozone through stomatal uptake, and accurately modeling the stomatal uptake of ozone is important for modeling dry deposition and air quality. We evaluated the stomatal component of ozone dry deposition modeled by atmospheric chemistry models at six sites. We find that models and observation-based estimates agree at times during the growing season at all sites, but some models overestimated the stomatal component during the dry summers at a seasonally dry site.
Per Erik Karlsson, Patrick Büker, Sam Bland, David Simpson, Katrina Sharps, Felicity Hayes, and Lisa D. Emberson
Biogeosciences, 22, 3563–3582, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3563-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3563-2025, 2025
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Stomatal ozone uptake and the negative impacts on forest growth rates were estimated for European forests. This was translated to annual increments in the forest living biomass carbon stocks, with and without ozone exposure. In the absence of O3 exposure, on average, European forest growth rates would increase by 9%, but the sequestration to the living-biomass carbon stocks would increase by 31% since the sequestration depends on the difference between growth and harvest rates.
Jo Cook, Durgesh Singh Yadav, Felicity Hayes, Nathan Booth, Sam Bland, Pritha Pande, Samarthia Thankappan, and Lisa Emberson
Biogeosciences, 22, 1035–1056, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1035-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1035-2025, 2025
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Ozone (O3) pollution reduces wheat yields and quality in India, affecting amino acids essential for nutrition, like lysine and methionine. Here, we improve the DO3SE-CropN model to simulate wheat’s protective processes against O3 and their impact on protein and amino acid concentrations. While the model captures O3-induced yield losses, it underestimates amino acid reductions. Further research is needed to refine the model, enabling future risk assessments of O3's impact on yields and nutrition.
Tamara Emmerichs, Abdulla Al Mamun, Lisa Emberson, Huiting Mao, Leiming Zhang, Limei Ran, Clara Betancourt, Anthony Wong, Gerbrand Koren, Giacomo Gerosa, Min Huang, and Pierluigi Guaita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-429, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-429, 2025
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The risk of ozone pollution to plants is estimated based on the flux through the plant pores which still has uncertainties. In this study, we estimate this quantity with 9 models at different land types worldwide. The input data stems from a database. The models estimated mostly reasonable summertime ozone deposition. The different results of the models varied by land cover which were mostly related to the moisture deficit. This is an important step for assessing the ozone impact on vegetation.
Pritha Pande, Sam Bland, Nathan Booth, Jo Cook, Zhaozhong Feng, and Lisa Emberson
Biogeosciences, 22, 181–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-181-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The DO3SE-Crop model extends the DO3SE to simulate ozone's impact on crops with modules for ozone uptake, damage, and crop growth from JULES-crop. It's versatile, suits China's varied agriculture, and improves yield predictions under ozone stress. It is essential for policy, water management, and climate response, and it integrates into Earth system models for a comprehensive understanding of agriculture's interaction with global systems.
Gabriella Everett, Øivind Hodnebrog, Madhoolika Agrawal, Durgesh Singh Yadav, Connie O'Neill, Chubamenla Jamir, Jo Cook, Pritha Pande, and Lisa Emberson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3371, 2024
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Ground-level ozone (O3), heat, and water stress (WS) reduce wheat yields, threatening food security in India. O3, heat, and WS interact as stressed plants close stomata, limiting O3 entry and damage. This study models O3 uptake under rainfed (WS) and irrigated conditions for current and future climates. Results show little O3-related yield loss under wWS but higher losses with irrigation. Both climate scenarios increase O3-related losses, highlighting risks to India’s wheat productivity.
Fang Li, Zhimin Zhou, Samuel Levis, Stephen Sitch, Felicity Hayes, Zhaozhong Feng, Peter B. Reich, Zhiyi Zhao, and Yanqing Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6173–6193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, 2024
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A new scheme is developed to model the surface ozone damage to vegetation in regional and global process-based models. Based on 4210 data points from ozone experiments, it accurately reproduces statistically significant linear or nonlinear photosynthetic and stomatal responses to ozone in observations for all vegetation types. It also enables models to implicitly capture the variability in plant ozone tolerance and the shift among species within a vegetation type.
Jose Rafael Guarin, Jonas Jägermeyr, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Fabio A. A. Oliveira, Senthold Asseng, Kenneth Boote, Joshua Elliott, Lisa Emberson, Ian Foster, Gerrit Hoogenboom, David Kelly, Alex C. Ruane, and Katrina Sharps
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2547–2567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2547-2024, 2024
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The effects of ozone (O3) stress on crop photosynthesis and leaf senescence were added to maize, rice, soybean, and wheat crop models. The modified models reproduced growth and yields under different O3 levels measured in field experiments and reported in the literature. The combined interactions between O3 and additional stresses were reproduced with the new models. These updated crop models can be used to simulate impacts of O3 stress under future climate change and air pollution scenarios.
Fredrik Lagergren, Robert G. Björk, Camilla Andersson, Danijel Belušić, Mats P. Björkman, Erik Kjellström, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Tinja Olenius, Håkan Pleijel, Gunhild Rosqvist, and Paul A. Miller
Biogeosciences, 21, 1093–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024, 2024
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The Fennoscandian boreal and mountain regions harbour a wide range of ecosystems sensitive to climate change. A new, highly resolved high-emission climate scenario enabled modelling of the vegetation development in this region at high resolution for the 21st century. The results show dramatic south to north and low- to high-altitude shifts of vegetation zones, especially for the open tundra environments, which will have large implications for nature conservation, reindeer husbandry and forestry.
Olivia E. Clifton, Donna Schwede, Christian Hogrefe, Jesse O. Bash, Sam Bland, Philip Cheung, Mhairi Coyle, Lisa Emberson, Johannes Flemming, Erick Fredj, Stefano Galmarini, Laurens Ganzeveld, Orestis Gazetas, Ignacio Goded, Christopher D. Holmes, László Horváth, Vincent Huijnen, Qian Li, Paul A. Makar, Ivan Mammarella, Giovanni Manca, J. William Munger, Juan L. Pérez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Limei Ran, Roberto San Jose, Sam J. Silva, Ralf Staebler, Shihan Sun, Amos P. K. Tai, Eran Tas, Timo Vesala, Tamás Weidinger, Zhiyong Wu, and Leiming Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9911–9961, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9911-2023, 2023
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A primary sink of air pollutants is dry deposition. Dry deposition estimates differ across the models used to simulate atmospheric chemistry. Here, we introduce an effort to examine dry deposition schemes from atmospheric chemistry models. We provide our approach’s rationale, document the schemes, and describe datasets used to drive and evaluate the schemes. We also launch the analysis of results by evaluating against observations and identifying the processes leading to model–model differences.
Håkan Pleijel, Jenny Klingberg, Michelle Nerentorp, Malin C. Broberg, Brigitte Nyirambangutse, John Munthe, and Göran Wallin
Biogeosciences, 18, 6313–6328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6313-2021, 2021
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Mercury is a problematic metal in the environment. It is crucial to understand the Hg circulation in ecosystems. We explored the mercury concentration in foliage from a diverse set of plants, locations and sampling periods to study the accumulation of Hg in leaves–needles over time. Mercury was always higher in older tissue: in broadleaved trees, conifers and wheat. Specific leaf area, the leaf area per unit leaf mass, turned out to be critical for Hg accumulation in leaves–needles.
Stefanie Falk, Ane V. Vollsnes, Aud B. Eriksen, Lisa Emberson, Connie O'Neill, Frode Stordal, and Terje Koren Berntsen
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-260, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-260, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Subarctic vegetation is threatened by climate change and ozone. We assess essential climate variables in 2018/19. 2018 was warmer and brighter than usual in Spring with forest fires and elevated ozone in summer. Visible damage was observed on plant species in 2018. We find that generic parameterizations used in modeling ozone dose do not suffice. We propose a method to acclimate these parameterizations and find an ozone-induced biomass loss of 2.5 to 17.4 % (up to 6 % larger than default).
Martina Franz, Rocio Alonso, Almut Arneth, Patrick Büker, Susana Elvira, Giacomo Gerosa, Lisa Emberson, Zhaozhong Feng, Didier Le Thiec, Riccardo Marzuoli, Elina Oksanen, Johan Uddling, Matthew Wilkinson, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 15, 6941–6957, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6941-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6941-2018, 2018
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Four published ozone damage functions previously used in terrestrial biosphere models were evaluated regarding their ability to simulate observed biomass dose–response relationships using the O-CN model. Neither damage function was able to reproduce the observed ozone-induced biomass reductions. Calibrating a plant-functional-type-specific relationship between accumulated ozone uptake and leaf-level photosynthesis did lead to a good agreement between observed and modelled ozone damage.
Brigitte Nyirambangutse, Etienne Zibera, Félicien K. Uwizeye, Donat Nsabimana, Elias Bizuru, Håkan Pleijel, Johan Uddling, and Göran Wallin
Biogeosciences, 14, 1285–1303, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1285-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1285-2017, 2017
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We investigated the carbon (C) stock and net primary production (NPP) of early (ES) and late successional (LS) forest stands in a tropical montane forest (TMF) in Africa. The total C stock was 35% larger in LS compared to ES stands due to larger tree biomass, while NPP was similar. The results highlight the importance of accounting for disturbance regimes and differences in wood density and allometry between ES and LS tree species when quantifying C stock and sink strength of TMF.
C. Hardacre, O. Wild, and L. Emberson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6419–6436, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6419-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6419-2015, 2015
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The dry deposition of ozone to the Earth's surface is an important process as it controls both the removal of this potent pollutant from the atmosphere and its uptake by vegetation. It is necessary to use numerical models to study this process at the global scale, but many models to represent dry deposition lag behind current understanding. In this paper we study the dry deposition process in global models and highlight measures that will allow these models to be critically evaluated.
J. Klingberg, M. Engardt, P. E. Karlsson, J. Langner, and H. Pleijel
Biogeosciences, 11, 5269–5283, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5269-2014, 2014
H. Pleijel, H. Danielsson, D. Simpson, and G. Mills
Biogeosciences, 11, 4521–4528, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4521-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4521-2014, 2014
L. D. Emberson, N. Kitwiroon, S. Beevers, P. Büker, and S. Cinderby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6741–6755, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6741-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6741-2013, 2013
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Xing Pu and Lixin Lyu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-952, 2025
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The effect of winter warming on forest CO2 fluxes has rarely been investigated. We tested the effect of the warm winter of 2020 on the forest CO2 fluxes across 14 sites in Europe and found that the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) across most sites declined during the warm winter due to increased respiration fluxes.
Yu Shang, Jingmin Qiu, Yuxi Weng, Xin Wang, Di Zhang, Yuwei Zhou, Juntian Xu, and Futian Li
Biogeosciences, 22, 1203–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1203-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1203-2025, 2025
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Research on the influences of dynamic pH on the marine ecosystem is still in its infancy. We manipulated the culturing pH to simulate pH fluctuation and found lower pH could increase eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid production with unaltered growth and photosynthesis in two marine diatoms. It is important to consider pH variation for more accurate predictions regarding the consequences of acidification in coastal waters.
Anne L. Morée, Fabrice Lacroix, William W. L. Cheung, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 22, 1115–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, 2025
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Using novel Earth system model simulations and applying the Aerobic Growth Index, we show that only about half of the habitat loss for marine species is realized when temperature stabilization is initially reached. The maximum habitat loss happens over a century after peak warming in a temperature overshoot scenario peaking at 2 °C before stabilizing at 1.5 °C. We also emphasize that species adaptation may be key in mitigating the long-term impacts of temperature stabilization and overshoot.
Jo Cook, Durgesh Singh Yadav, Felicity Hayes, Nathan Booth, Sam Bland, Pritha Pande, Samarthia Thankappan, and Lisa Emberson
Biogeosciences, 22, 1035–1056, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1035-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1035-2025, 2025
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Ozone (O3) pollution reduces wheat yields and quality in India, affecting amino acids essential for nutrition, like lysine and methionine. Here, we improve the DO3SE-CropN model to simulate wheat’s protective processes against O3 and their impact on protein and amino acid concentrations. While the model captures O3-induced yield losses, it underestimates amino acid reductions. Further research is needed to refine the model, enabling future risk assessments of O3's impact on yields and nutrition.
Stéphane Doléac, Marina Lévy, Roy El Hourany, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 22, 841–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-841-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-841-2025, 2025
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The marine biogeochemistry components of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models vary widely in their process representations. Using an innovative bioregionalization of the North Atlantic, we reveal that this model diversity largely drives the divergence in net primary production projections under a high-emission scenario. The identification of the most mechanistically realistic models allows for a substantial reduction in projection uncertainty.
Tom Huysmans, Filip J. R. Meysman, and Sebastiaan J. van de Velde
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-447, 2025
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To examine the potential of "Accelerated Weathering of Limestone" as a carbon capture and storage technique, we compared the different available reactor designs, and assessed their CO2 sequestration efficiencies, resource usage and limitations. We find that large water volumes are required to efficiently remove CO2 from the gas stream and that very small CaCO3 particle sizes and long residence times are required to achieve reasonable CaCO3 dissolution efficiencies.
Nina Bednaršek, Hanna van de Mortel, Greg Pelletier, Marisol García-Reyes, Richard A. Feely, and Andrew G. Dickson
Biogeosciences, 22, 473–498, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-473-2025, 2025
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The environmental impacts of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) are unknown. Our synthesis, based on 68 collected studies with 84 unique species, shows that 35 % of species respond positively, 26 % respond negatively, and 39 % show a neutral response to alkalinity addition. Biological thresholds were found from 50 to 500 µmol kg−1 NaOH addition. A precautionary approach is warranted to avoid potential risks, while current regulatory framework needs improvements to assure safe biological limits.
Luna J. J. Geerts, Astrid Hylén, and Filip J. R. Meysman
Biogeosciences, 22, 355–384, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-355-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-355-2025, 2025
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Marine enhanced rock weathering (mERW) with olivine is a promising method for capturing CO2 from the atmosphere, yet studies in field conditions are lacking. We bridge the gap between theoretical studies and the real-world environment by estimating the predictability of mERW parameters and identifying aspects to consider when applying mERW. A major source of uncertainty is the lack of experimental studies with sediment, which can heavily influence the speed and efficiency of CO2 drawdown.
Christian Blair Lewis, Rachel Corran, Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher, Erik Behrens, Rowena Moss, Gordon Brailsford, Andrew Lorrey, Margaret Norris, and Jocelyn Turnbull
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4107, 2025
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The Southern Ocean carbon sink is a balance between two opposing forces: CO2 absorption at mid-latitudes and CO2 outgassing at high-latitudes. Radiocarbon analysis can be used to constrain the latter, as upwelling waters outgas old CO2, diluting atmospheric radiocarbon content. We present tree-ring radiocarbon measurements from New Zealand and Chile. We show that low radiocarbon in New Zealand’s Campbell Island is linked to outgassing in the critical Antarctic Southern Zone.
Philipp Suessle, Jan Taucher, Silvan Urs Goldenberg, Moritz Baumann, Kristian Spilling, Andrea Noche-Ferreira, Mari Vanharanta, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 22, 71–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-71-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-71-2025, 2025
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Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a negative emission technology which may alter marine communities and the particle export they drive. Here, impacts of carbonate-based OAE on the flux and attenuation of sinking particles in an oligotrophic plankton community are presented. Whilst biological parameters remained unaffected, abiotic carbonate precipitation occurred. Among counteracting OAE’s efficiency, it influenced mineral ballasting and particle sinking velocities, requiring monitoring.
Thuy Huu Nguyen, Thomas Gaiser, Jan Vanderborght, Andrea Schnepf, Felix Bauer, Anja Klotzsche, Lena Lärm, Hubert Hüging, and Frank Ewert
Biogeosciences, 21, 5495–5515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5495-2024, 2024
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Leaf water potential was at certain thresholds, depending on soil type, water treatment, and weather conditions. In rainfed plots, the lower water availability in the stony soil resulted in fewer roots with a higher root tissue conductance than the silty soil. In the silty soil, higher stress in the rainfed soil led to more roots with a lower root tissue conductance than in the irrigated plot. Crop responses to water stress can be opposite, depending on soil water conditions that are compared.
Mana Gharun, Ankit Shekhar, Jingfeng Xiao, Xing Li, and Nina Buchmann
Biogeosciences, 21, 5481–5494, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5481-2024, 2024
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In 2022, Europe's forests faced unprecedented dry conditions. Our study aimed to understand how different forest types respond to extreme drought. Using meteorological data and satellite imagery, we compared 2022 with two previous extreme years, 2003 and 2018. Despite less severe drought in 2022, forests showed a 30 % greater decline in photosynthesis compared to 2018 and 60 % more than 2003. This suggests an alarming level of vulnerability of forests across Europe to more frequent droughts.
Gabriella Everett, Øivind Hodnebrog, Madhoolika Agrawal, Durgesh Singh Yadav, Connie O'Neill, Chubamenla Jamir, Jo Cook, Pritha Pande, and Lisa Emberson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3371, 2024
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Ground-level ozone (O3), heat, and water stress (WS) reduce wheat yields, threatening food security in India. O3, heat, and WS interact as stressed plants close stomata, limiting O3 entry and damage. This study models O3 uptake under rainfed (WS) and irrigated conditions for current and future climates. Results show little O3-related yield loss under wWS but higher losses with irrigation. Both climate scenarios increase O3-related losses, highlighting risks to India’s wheat productivity.
Makcim L. De Sisto and Andrew H. MacDougall
Biogeosciences, 21, 4853–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4853-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4853-2024, 2024
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The remaining carbon budget (RCB) represents the allowable future CO2 emissions before a temperature target is reached. Understanding the uncertainty in the RCB is critical for effective climate regulation and policy-making. One major source of uncertainty is the representation of the carbon cycle in Earth system models. We assessed how nutrient limitation affects the estimation of the RCB. We found a reduction in the estimated RCB when nutrient limitation is taken into account.
Outi Kinnunen, Leif Backman, Juha Aalto, Tuula Aalto, and Tiina Markkanen
Biogeosciences, 21, 4739–4763, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4739-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4739-2024, 2024
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Climate change is expected to increase the risk of forest fires. Ecosystem process model simulations are used to project changes in fire occurrence in Fennoscandia under six climate projections. The findings suggest a longer fire season, more fires, and an increase in burnt area towards the end of the century.
Niels Suitner, Giulia Faucher, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Charly A. Moras, Ulf Riebesell, and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 21, 4587–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, 2024
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Recent studies described the precipitation of carbonates as a result of alkalinity enhancement in seawater, which could adversely affect the carbon sequestration potential of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches. By conducting experiments in natural seawater, this study observed uniform patterns during the triggered runaway carbonate precipitation, which allow the prediction of safe and efficient local application levels of OAE scenarios.
Milagros Rico, Paula Santiago-Díaz, Guillermo Samperio-Ramos, Melchor González-Dávila, and Juana Magdalena Santana-Casiano
Biogeosciences, 21, 4381–4394, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4381-2024, 2024
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Changes in pH generate stress conditions, either because high pH drastically decreases the availability of trace metals such as Fe(II), a restrictive element for primary productivity, or because reactive oxygen species are increased with low pH. The metabolic functions and composition of microalgae can be affected. These modifications in metabolites are potential factors leading to readjustments in phytoplankton community structure and diversity and possible alteration in marine ecosystems.
James A. King, James Weber, Peter Lawrence, Stephanie Roe, Abigail L. S. Swann, and Maria Val Martin
Biogeosciences, 21, 3883–3902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, 2024
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Tackling climate change by adding, restoring, or enhancing forests is gaining global support. However, it is important to investigate the broader implications of this. We used a computer model of the Earth to investigate a future where tree cover expanded as much as possible. We found that some tropical areas were cooler because of trees pumping water into the atmosphere, but this also led to soil and rivers drying. This is important because it might be harder to maintain forests as a result.
Johnny Rutherford, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, and Alex Cannon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2445, 2024
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The Arctic winter is vulnerable to climate warming and ~1700 Gt of carbon stored in high latitude permafrost ecosystems is at risk of degradation in the future due to enhanced microbial activity. Poorly represented cold season processes, such as the simulation of snow thermal conductivity in Land Surface Models (LSMs), causes uncertainty in projected carbon emission simulations. Improved snow conductivity parameterization in CLM5.0 significantly increases predicted winter CO2 emissions to 2100.
Benoît Pasquier, Mark Holzer, and Matthew A. Chamberlain
Biogeosciences, 21, 3373–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, 2024
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How do perpetually slower and warmer oceans sequester carbon? Compared to the preindustrial state, we find that biological productivity declines despite warming-stimulated growth because of a lower nutrient supply from depth. This throttles the biological carbon pump, which still sequesters more carbon because it takes longer to return to the surface. The deep ocean is isolated from the surface, allowing more carbon from the atmosphere to pass through the ocean without contributing to biology.
Matthew A. Chamberlain, Tilo Ziehn, and Rachel M. Law
Biogeosciences, 21, 3053–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, 2024
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This paper explores the climate processes that drive increasing global average temperatures in zero-emission commitment (ZEC) simulations despite decreasing atmospheric CO2. ACCESS-ESM1.5 shows the Southern Ocean to continue to warm locally in all ZEC simulations. In ZEC simulations that start after the emission of more than 1000 Pg of carbon, the influence of the Southern Ocean increases the global temperature.
Shuaifeng Song, Xuezhen Zhang, and Xiaodong Yan
Biogeosciences, 21, 2839–2858, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, 2024
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We mapped the distribution of future potential afforestation regions based on future high-resolution climate data and climate–vegetation models. After considering the national afforestation policy and climate change, we found that the future potential afforestation region was mainly located around and to the east of the Hu Line. This study provides a dataset for exploring the effects of future afforestation.
Tianfei Xue, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, Andreas Oschlies, and Ivy Frenger
Biogeosciences, 21, 2473–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, 2024
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Phytoplankton play a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Kinga Kulesza and Agata Hościło
Biogeosciences, 21, 2509–2527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2509-2024, 2024
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We present coherence and time lags in spectral response of three vegetation types in the European temperate zone to the influencing meteorological factors and teleconnection indices for the period 2002–2022. Vegetation condition in broadleaved forest, coniferous forest and pastures was measured with MODIS NDVI and EVI, and the coherence between NDVI and EVI and meteorological elements was described using the methods of wavelet coherence and Pearson’s linear correlation with time lag.
Anton Lokshin, Daniel Palchan, and Avner Gross
Biogeosciences, 21, 2355–2365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2355-2024, 2024
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Ash particles from wildfires are rich in phosphorus (P), a crucial nutrient that constitutes a limiting factor in 43 % of the world's land ecosystems. We hypothesize that wildfire ash could directly contribute to plant nutrition. We find that fire ash application boosts the growth of plants, but the only way plants can uptake P from fire ash is through the foliar uptake pathway and not through the roots. The fertilization impact of fire ash was also maintained under elevated levels of CO2.
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, 2024
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The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
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Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Flora Desmet, Matthias Münnich, and Nicolas Gruber
Biogeosciences, 20, 5151–5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, 2023
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Ocean acidity extremes in the upper 250 m depth of the northeastern Pacific rapidly increase with atmospheric CO2 rise, which is worrisome for marine organisms that rapidly experience pH levels outside their local environmental conditions. Presented research shows the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in this increase between regions and depths. In particular, the subsurface increase is substantially slowed down by the presence of mesoscale eddies, often not resolved in Earth system models.
Geneviève W. Elsworth, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Thomas M. Marchitto, and Sarah Schlunegger
Biogeosciences, 20, 4477–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, 2023
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Anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on marine phytoplankton internal variability using an Earth system model ensemble and identify a decline in global phytoplankton biomass variance with warming. Our results suggest that climate mitigation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes should also consider changes in phytoplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming.
Olivia Haas, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 3981–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, 2023
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We quantify the impact of CO2 and climate on global patterns of burnt area, fire size, and intensity under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions using three climate scenarios. Climate change alone did not produce the observed LGM reduction in burnt area, but low CO2 did through reducing vegetation productivity. Fire intensity was sensitive to CO2 but strongly affected by changes in atmospheric dryness. Low CO2 caused smaller fires; climate had the opposite effect except in the driest scenario.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Claudia Hinrichs, Peter Köhler, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
Biogeosciences, 20, 3717–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, 2023
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This study evaluated the alkalinity distribution in 14 climate models and found that most models underestimate alkalinity at the surface and overestimate it in the deeper ocean. It highlights the need for better understanding and quantification of processes driving alkalinity distribution and calcium carbonate dissolution and the importance of accounting for biases in model results when evaluating potential ocean alkalinity enhancement experiments.
Yonghong Zheng, Huanfeng Shen, Rory Abernethy, and Rob Wilson
Biogeosciences, 20, 3481–3490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, 2023
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Investigations in central and western China show that tree ring inverted latewood intensity expresses a strong positive relationship with growing-season temperatures, indicating exciting potential for regions south of 30° N that are traditionally not targeted for temperature reconstructions. Earlywood BI also shows good potential to reconstruct hydroclimate parameters in some humid areas and will enhance ring-width-based hydroclimate reconstructions in the future.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023
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Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 Mha burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain, emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m−2. We found larger-fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned-area and combustion datasets described here can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
V. Rachel Chimuka, Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Biogeosciences, 20, 2283–2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, 2023
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We propose a new method to quantify carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions. Our method isolates the lagged carbon cycle response to preceding positive emissions from the response to negative emissions. Our findings suggest that feedback parameters calculated with the novel approach are larger than those calculated with the conventional approach whereby carbon cycle inertia is not corrected for, with implications for the effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in reducing CO2 levels.
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 20, 2237–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, 2023
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A promising strategy for mitigating burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. The consequence of this would be reduced absorption of solar radiation, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study, we show that deciduous forests have a certain cooling effect on heat period intensities in Europe. However, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
Gesche Blume-Werry, Jonatan Klaminder, Eveline J. Krab, and Sylvain Monteux
Biogeosciences, 20, 1979–1990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, 2023
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Northern soils store a lot of carbon. Most research has focused on how this carbon storage is regulated by cold temperatures. However, it is soil organisms, from minute bacteria to large earthworms, that decompose the organic material. Novel soil organisms from further south could increase decomposition rates more than climate change does and lead to carbon losses. We therefore advocate for including soil organisms when predicting the fate of soil functions in warming northern ecosystems.
Koramanghat Unnikrishnan Jayakrishnan and Govindasamy Bala
Biogeosciences, 20, 1863–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, 2023
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Afforestation and reducing fossil fuel emissions are two important mitigation strategies to reduce the amount of global warming. Our work shows that reducing fossil fuel emissions is relatively more effective than afforestation for the same amount of carbon removed from the atmosphere. However, understanding of the processes that govern the biophysical effects of afforestation should be improved before considering our results for climate policy.
Jens Hartmann, Niels Suitner, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Laura Marín-Samper, Javier Arístegui, Phil Renforth, Jan Taucher, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 20, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, 2023
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CO2 can be stored in the ocean via increasing alkalinity of ocean water. Alkalinity can be created via dissolution of alkaline materials, like limestone or soda. Presented research studies boundaries for increasing alkalinity in seawater. The best way to increase alkalinity was found using an equilibrated solution, for example as produced from reactors. Adding particles for dissolution into seawater on the other hand produces the risk of losing alkalinity and degassing of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, Amir Haroon, Hermann W. Bange, Ercan Erkul, Marion Jegen, Nils Moosdorf, Jens Schneider von Deimling, Christian Berndt, Michael Ernst Böttcher, Jasper Hoffmann, Volker Liebetrau, Ulf Mallast, Gudrun Massmann, Aaron Micallef, Holly A. Michael, Hendrik Paasche, Wolfgang Rabbel, Isaac Santos, Jan Scholten, Katrin Schwalenberg, Beata Szymczycha, Ariel T. Thomas, Joonas J. Virtasalo, Hannelore Waska, and Bradley A. Weymer
Biogeosciences, 20, 647–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, 2023
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Groundwater flows at the land–ocean transition and the extent of freshened groundwater below the seafloor are increasingly relevant in marine sciences, both because they are a highly uncertain term of biogeochemical budgets and due to the emerging interest in the latter as a resource. Here, we discuss our perspectives on future research directions to better understand land–ocean connectivity through groundwater and its potential responses to natural and human-induced environmental changes.
Morgan Sparey, Peter Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Biogeosciences, 20, 451–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, 2023
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Accurate climate models are vital for mitigating climate change; however, projections often disagree. Using Köppen–Geiger bioclimate classifications we show that CMIP6 climate models agree well on the fraction of global land surface that will change classification per degree of global warming. We find that 13 % of land will change climate per degree of warming from 1 to 3 K; thus, stabilising warming at 1.5 rather than 2 K would save over 7.5 million square kilometres from bioclimatic change.
Cited articles
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Baqasi, L. A., Qari, H. A., Al Nahhas, N., Badr, R. H., Taia, W. K., El Dakkak, R., and Hassan, I. A.: Effects of low concentrations of ozone (O3) on metabolic and physiological attributes in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) pants, Biomed. Pharmacol. J., 11, 929–934, https://doi.org/10.13005/bpj/1450, 2018.
Barraclough, P. B., Lopez-Bellido, R., and Hawkesford, M. J.: Genotypic variation in the uptake, partitioning and remobilisation of nitrogen during grain-filling in wheat, Field Crop. Res., 156, 242–248, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2013.10.004, 2014.
Ben Mariem, S., Soba, D., Zhou, B., Loladze, I., Morales, F., and Aranjuelo, I.: Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Grain Quality of C3 Cereals: A Meta-Analysis of [CO2], Temperature, and Drought Effects, Plants, 10, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.3390/plants10061052, 2021.
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Short summary
At ground level, the air pollutant ozone (O3) damages wheat yield and quality. We modified the DO3SE-Crop model to simulate O3 effects on wheat quality and identified onset of leaf death as the key process affecting wheat quality upon O3 exposure. This aligns with expectations, as the onset of leaf death aids nutrient transfer from leaves to grains. Breeders should prioritize wheat varieties resistant to protein loss from delayed leaf death, to maintain yield and quality under O3 exposure.
At ground level, the air pollutant ozone (O3) damages wheat yield and quality. We modified the...
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