Articles | Volume 22, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5009-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5009-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Sep 2025
Research article |
| 26 Sep 2025
| 26 Sep 2025
Northern North Atlantic climate variability controls on ocean carbon sinks in EC-Earth3-CC
Anna Pedersen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Nordcee, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, 5230, Denmark
Danish Meteorological Institute, National Centre for Climate Research, Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark
Carolin R. Löscher
Nordcee, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, 5230, Denmark
Steffen M. Olsen
Danish Meteorological Institute, National Centre for Climate Research, Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark
Related authors
No articles found.
Alexander Hayward, Nishka Dasgupta, Ronan McAdam, Mark R. Payne, Roshin P. Raj, Giulia Bonino, Sourav Chatterjee, Vincent Combes, Dimitra Denaxa, Francesco De Rovere, Pia Englyst, Veera Haapaniemi, Paul Hargous, Jacob Høyer, K. Ajith Joseph, Beatriz Lopes, Ana Oliveira, João Paixão, Fabiola Silva, Saradhy Surendran, Artemis Zegna-Rata, and Steffen Olsen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-590, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-590, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global marine heatwave dataset (1982–2024) based on satellite sea surface temperature. The dataset applies multiple definitions in parallel, varying baselines, thresholds, detrending, and event durations. It enables consistent comparisons of marine heatwave characterisation across methods and supports climate monitoring, model evaluation, and ecological impact studies.
Sofie Hedetoft, Olivia Bang Brinck, Ruth Mottram, Andrea M. U. Gierisch, Steffen Malskær Olsen, Martin Olesen, Nicolaj Hansen, Anders Anker Bjørk, Erik Loebel, Anne Solgaard, and Peter Thejll
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1907, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Iceberg mélange is the jumble of icebergs in front of some glaciers that calve into the sea. Some studies suggest mélange might help to control the retreat of glaciers. We studied 3 glaciers in NW Greenland where we used GPS sensors and satellites to track ice movement. We found that glaciers push forward and calve all year, including when mélange and landfast sea ice are present, suggesting mélange is not important in supporting glaciers, but may influence the seasonal calving cycle.
Isabell Schlangen, Elizabeth Leon-Palmero, Annabell Moser, Peihang Xu, Erik Laursen, and Carolin Regina Löscher
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3680, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3680, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explored nitrogen fixation in the Arctic Ocean, revealing its key role in supporting coastal productivity, especially near melting glaciers. By combining molecular data, rate measurements, and environmental analysis, we identified dominant microbes like symbiotic unicellular cyanobacteria and linked high nitrogen fixation to glacial melt. Our findings suggest that climate-driven changes may expand niches for these microbes, reshaping nitrogen cycles and Arctic productivity in the future.
Sebastian I. Cantarero, Edgart Flores, Harry Allbrook, Paulina Aguayo, Cristian A. Vargas, John E. Tamanaha, J. Bentley C. Scholz, Lennart T. Bach, Carolin R. Löscher, Ulf Riebesell, Balaji Rajagopalan, Nadia Dildar, and Julio Sepúlveda
Biogeosciences, 21, 3927–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3927-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores lipid remodeling in response to environmental stress, specifically how cell membrane chemistry changes. We focus on intact polar lipids in a phytoplankton community exposed to diverse stressors in a mesocosm experiment. The observed remodeling indicates acyl chain recycling for energy storage in intact polar lipids during stress, reallocating resources based on varying growth conditions. This understanding is essential to grasp the system's impact on cellular pools.
Jakob Rønning, Zarah J. Kofoed, Mats Jacobsen, and Carolin R. Löscher
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2884, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we assessed the impact of olivine on marine primary producers of ocean-based solutions. The experiments revealed no negative effects on carbon fixation rates. Additions of the alkaline minerals did not establish growth inhibition; instead, they showed slight growth increases with species-specific responses. Ni exposure from olivine did not inhibit growth. However, limitations include the absence of responses in natural settings.
Matthew D. Eisaman, Sonja Geilert, Phil Renforth, Laura Bastianini, James Campbell, Andrew W. Dale, Spyros Foteinis, Patricia Grasse, Olivia Hawrot, Carolin R. Löscher, Greg H. Rau, and Jakob Rønning
State Planet, 2-oae2023, 3, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-3-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-3-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean-alkalinity-enhancement technologies refer to various methods and approaches aimed at increasing the alkalinity of seawater. This chapter explores technologies for increasing ocean alkalinity, including electrochemical-based approaches, ocean liming, accelerated weathering of limestone, hydrated carbonate addition, and coastal enhanced weathering, and suggests best practices in research and development.
Bogi Hansen, Karin M. H. Larsen, Hjálmar Hátún, Steffen M. Olsen, Andrea M. U. Gierisch, Svein Østerhus, and Sólveig R. Ólafsdóttir
Ocean Sci., 19, 1225–1252, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1225-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1225-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Based on in situ observations combined with sea level anomaly (SLA) data from satellite altimetry, volume as well as heat (relative to 0 °C) transport of the Iceland–Faroe warm-water inflow towards the Arctic (IF inflow) increased from 1993 to 2021. The reprocessed SLA data released in December 2021 represent observed variations accurately. The IF inflow crosses the Iceland–Faroe Ridge in two branches, with retroflection in between. The associated coupling to overflow reduces predictability.
Zhibo Shao, Yangchun Xu, Hua Wang, Weicheng Luo, Lice Wang, Yuhong Huang, Nona Sheila R. Agawin, Ayaz Ahmed, Mar Benavides, Mikkel Bentzon-Tilia, Ilana Berman-Frank, Hugo Berthelot, Isabelle C. Biegala, Mariana B. Bif, Antonio Bode, Sophie Bonnet, Deborah A. Bronk, Mark V. Brown, Lisa Campbell, Douglas G. Capone, Edward J. Carpenter, Nicolas Cassar, Bonnie X. Chang, Dreux Chappell, Yuh-ling Lee Chen, Matthew J. Church, Francisco M. Cornejo-Castillo, Amália Maria Sacilotto Detoni, Scott C. Doney, Cecile Dupouy, Marta Estrada, Camila Fernandez, Bieito Fernández-Castro, Debany Fonseca-Batista, Rachel A. Foster, Ken Furuya, Nicole Garcia, Kanji Goto, Jesús Gago, Mary R. Gradoville, M. Robert Hamersley, Britt A. Henke, Cora Hörstmann, Amal Jayakumar, Zhibing Jiang, Shuh-Ji Kao, David M. Karl, Leila R. Kittu, Angela N. Knapp, Sanjeev Kumar, Julie LaRoche, Hongbin Liu, Jiaxing Liu, Caroline Lory, Carolin R. Löscher, Emilio Marañón, Lauren F. Messer, Matthew M. Mills, Wiebke Mohr, Pia H. Moisander, Claire Mahaffey, Robert Moore, Beatriz Mouriño-Carballido, Margaret R. Mulholland, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Joseph A. Needoba, Eric J. Raes, Eyal Rahav, Teodoro Ramírez-Cárdenas, Christian Furbo Reeder, Lasse Riemann, Virginie Riou, Julie C. Robidart, Vedula V. S. S. Sarma, Takuya Sato, Himanshu Saxena, Corday Selden, Justin R. Seymour, Dalin Shi, Takuhei Shiozaki, Arvind Singh, Rachel E. Sipler, Jun Sun, Koji Suzuki, Kazutaka Takahashi, Yehui Tan, Weiyi Tang, Jean-Éric Tremblay, Kendra Turk-Kubo, Zuozhu Wen, Angelicque E. White, Samuel T. Wilson, Takashi Yoshida, Jonathan P. Zehr, Run Zhang, Yao Zhang, and Ya-Wei Luo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3673–3709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3673-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3673-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
N2 fixation by marine diazotrophs is an important bioavailable N source to the global ocean. This updated global oceanic diazotroph database increases the number of in situ measurements of N2 fixation rates, diazotrophic cell abundances, and nifH gene copy abundances by 184 %, 86 %, and 809 %, respectively. Using the updated database, the global marine N2 fixation rate is estimated at 223 ± 30 Tg N yr−1, which triplicates that using the original database.
Christian Furbo Reeder, Ina Stoltenberg, Jamileh Javidpour, and Carolin Regina Löscher
Ocean Sci., 18, 401–417, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-401-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Baltic Sea is predicted to freshen in the future. To explore the effect of decreasing salinity on N2 fixers, we followed the natural salinity gradient in the Baltic Sea from the Kiel Fjord to the Gotland Basin and identified an N2 fixer community dominated by Nodularia and UCYN-A. A salinity threshold was identified at a salinity of 10, with Nodularia dominating at low and UCYN-A dominating at higher salinity, suggesting a future expansion of Nodularia N2 fixers and a retraction of UCYN-A.
Carolin R. Löscher
Biogeosciences, 18, 4953–4963, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4953-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4953-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Bay of Bengal (BoB) is classically seen as an ocean region with low primary production, which has been predicted to decrease even further. Here, the importance of such a trend is used to explore what could happen to the BoB's low-oxygen core waters if primary production decreases. Lower biological production leads to less oxygen loss in deeper waters by respiration; thus it could be that oxygen will not further decrease and the BoB will not become anoxic, different to other low-oxygen areas.
Kai G. Schulz, Eric P. Achterberg, Javier Arístegui, Lennart T. Bach, Isabel Baños, Tim Boxhammer, Dirk Erler, Maricarmen Igarza, Verena Kalter, Andrea Ludwig, Carolin Löscher, Jana Meyer, Judith Meyer, Fabrizio Minutolo, Elisabeth von der Esch, Bess B. Ward, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 18, 4305–4320, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4305-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4305-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Upwelling of nutrient-rich deep waters to the surface make eastern boundary upwelling systems hot spots of marine productivity. This leads to subsurface oxygen depletion and the transformation of bioavailable nitrogen into inert N2. Here we quantify nitrogen loss processes following a simulated deep water upwelling. Denitrification was the dominant process, and budget calculations suggest that a significant portion of nitrogen that could be exported to depth is already lost in the surface ocean.
Siqi Wu, Moge Du, Xianhui Sean Wan, Corday Selden, Mar Benavides, Sophie Bonnet, Robert Hamersley, Carolin R. Löscher, Margaret R. Mulholland, Xiuli Yan, and Shuh-Ji Kao
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-104, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen (N2) fixation is one of the most important nutrient sources to the ocean. Here, we report N2 fixation in the deep, dark ocean in the South China Sea via a highly sensitive new method and elaborate controls, showing the overlooked importance of N2 fixation in the deep ocean. By global data compilation, we also provide an easy measured basic parameter to estimate deep N2 fixation. Our study may help to expand the area limit of N2 fixation studies and better constrain global N2 fixation.
Gerd Krahmann, Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, Andrew W. Dale, Marcus Dengler, Anja Engel, Nicolaas Glock, Patricia Grasse, Johannes Hahn, Helena Hauss, Mark Hopwood, Rainer Kiko, Alexandra Loginova, Carolin R. Löscher, Marie Maßmig, Alexandra-Sophie Roy, Renato Salvatteci, Stefan Sommer, Toste Tanhua, and Hela Mehrtens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-308, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The project "Climate-Biogeochemistry Interactions in the Tropical Ocean" (SFB 754) was a multidisciplinary research project active from 2008 to 2019 aimed at a better understanding of the coupling between the tropical climate and ocean circulation and the ocean's oxygen and nutrient balance. On 34 research cruises, mainly in the Southeast Tropical Pacific and the Northeast Tropical Atlantic, 1071 physical, chemical and biological data sets were collected.
Bogi Hansen, Karin Margretha Húsgarð Larsen, Hjálmar Hátún, Steingrímur Jónsson, Sólveig Rósa Ólafsdóttir, Andreas Macrander, William Johns, N. Penny Holliday, and Steffen Malskær Olsen
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2021-14, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2021-14, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Compared to other freshwater sources, runoff from Iceland is small and usually flows into the Nordic Seas. Under certain wind conditions, it can, however, flow into the Iceland Basin and this occurred after 2014, when this region had already freshened from other causes. This explains why the surface freshening in this area became so extreme. The local and shallow character of this runoff allows it to have a disproportionate effect on vertical mixing, winter convection, and biological production.
Cited articles
Ardyna, M. and Arrigo, K. R.: Phytoplankton dynamics in a changing Arctic Ocean, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 892–903, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0905-y, 2020.
Aumont, O., Ethé, C., Tagliabue, A., Bopp, L., and Gehlen, M.: PISCES-v2: an ocean biogeochemical model for carbon and ecosystem studies, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2465–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2465-2015, 2015.
Berx, B. and Payne, M. R.: The Sub-Polar Gyre Index – a community data set for application in fisheries and environment research, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 259–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-259-2017, 2017.
Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Halloran, P., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Séférian, R., Tjiputra, J., and Vichi, M.: Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 10, 6225–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, 2013.
Boyd, P. W. and Trull, T. W.: Understanding the export of biogenic particles in oceanic waters: Is there consensus?, Prog. Oceanogr., 72, 276–312, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2006.10.007, 2007.
Breeden, M. L. and McKinley, G. A.: Climate impacts on multidecadal pCO2 variability in the North Atlantic: 1948–2009, Biogeosciences, 13, 3387–3396, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3387-2016, 2016.
Broecker, W. S., Takahashi, T., Simpson, H. J., and Peng, T. H.: Fate of fossil fuel carbon dioxide and the global carbon budget, Science, 206, 409–418, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.206.4417.409, 1979.
Chafik, L. and Rossby, T.: Volume, heat, and freshwater divergences in the subpolar North Atlantic suggest the Nordic Seas as key to the state of the meridional overturning circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 4799–4808, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082110, 2019.
Daniault, N., Mercier, H., Lherminier, P., Sarafanov, A., Falina, A., Zunino, P., Pérez, F. F., Ríos, A. F., Ferron, B., Huck, T., and Thierry, V.: The northern North Atlantic Ocean mean circulation in the early 21st century, Prog. Oceanogr., 146, 142–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2016.06.007, 2016.
Desbruyères, D. G., Mercier, H., Maze, G., and Daniault, N.: Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic, Ocean Sci., 15, 809–817, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-809-2019, 2019.
Döscher, R., Acosta, M., Alessandri, A., Anthoni, P., Arsouze, T., Bergman, T., Bernardello, R., Boussetta, S., Caron, L.-P., Carver, G., Castrillo, M., Catalano, F., Cvijanovic, I., Davini, P., Dekker, E., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Docquier, D., Echevarria, P., Fladrich, U., Fuentes-Franco, R., Gröger, M., v. Hardenberg, J., Hieronymus, J., Karami, M. P., Keskinen, J.-P., Koenigk, T., Makkonen, R., Massonnet, F., Ménégoz, M., Miller, P. A., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Nieradzik, L., van Noije, T., Nolan, P., O'Donnell, D., Ollinaho, P., van den Oord, G., Ortega, P., Prims, O. T., Ramos, A., Reerink, T., Rousset, C., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Le Sager, P., Schmith, T., Schrödner, R., Serva, F., Sicardi, V., Sloth Madsen, M., Smith, B., Tian, T., Tourigny, E., Uotila, P., Vancoppenolle, M., Wang, S., Wårlind, D., Willén, U., Wyser, K., Yang, S., Yepes-Arbós, X., and Zhang, Q.: The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022.
EC-Earth Consortium (EC-Earth): EC-Earth Consortium EC-Earth-3-CC model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical, Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4702, 2021.
Esbensen, S. K. and McPhaden M. J.: Enhancement of tropical ocean evaporation and sensible heat flux by atmospheric mesoscale systems, J. Climate, 9, 2307–2325, 1996.
Esbensen, S. K. and Reynolds, R. W.: Estimating monthly averaged air-sea transfers of heat and momentum using the bulk aerodynamic method, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 11, 457–465, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1981)011<0457:EMAAST>2.0.CO;2, 1981.
Foukal, N. P. and Lozier, M. S.: Assessing variability in the size and strength of the N orth A tlantic subpolar gyre, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 6295–6308, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012798, 2017.
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Slangen, A. B. A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1211–1362, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, 2021.
Fransner, F., Counillon, F., Bethke, I., Tjiputra, J., Samuelsen, A., Nummelin, A., and Olsen, A.: Ocean biogeochemical predictions – initialization and limits of predictability, Front. Marine Sci., 7, 386, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00386, 2020.
Fu, W., Randerson, J. T., and Moore, J. K.: Climate change impacts on net primary production (NPP) and export production (EP) regulated by increasing stratification and phytoplankton community structure in the CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 13, 5151–5170, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5151-2016, 2016.
Gregor, L. and Fay, A.: SeaFlux: harmonised sea-air CO2 fluxes from surface pCO2 data products using a standardised approach (2021.04.03), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5482547, 2021.
Gruber, N., Keeling, C. D., and Bates, N. R.: Interannual variability in the North Atlantic Ocean carbon sink, Science, 298, 2374–2378, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1077077, 2002.
Gruber, N., Clement, D., Carter, B. R., Feely, R. A., Van Heuven, S., Hoppema, M., Ishii, M., Key, R. M., Kozyr, A., Lauvset, S. K., and Lo Monaco, C.: The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2 from 1994 to 2007, Science, 363, 1193–1199, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau5153, 2019.
Gruber, N., Bakker, D. C., DeVries, T., Gregor, L., Hauck, J., Landschützer, P., McKinley, G. A., and Müller, J. D.: Trends and variability in the ocean carbon sink, Na. Rev. Earth Environ., 4, 119–134, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00381-x, 2023.
Gulev, S. K.: Influence of space–time averaging on the ocean–atmosphere exchange estimates in the North Atlantic midlatitudes, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 24, 1236–1255, 1994.
Gulev, S. K.: Climatologically significant effects of space–time averaging in the North Atlantic sea–air heat flux fields, J. Climate, 10, 2743–2763, 1997.
Häkkinen, S., Rhines, P. B., and Worthen, D. L.:. Northern North Atlantic sea surface height and ocean heat content variability, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 3670–3678, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20268, 2013.
Hátún, H., Sandø, A. B., Drange, H., Hansen, B., and Valdimarsson, H.: Influence of the Atlantic subpolar gyre on the thermohaline circulation, Science, 309, 1841–1844, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1114777, 2005.
Hátún, H., Azetsu-Scott, K., Somavilla, R., Rey, F., Johnson, C., Mathis, M., Mikolajewicz, U., Coupel, P., Tremblay, J.É., Hartman, S., and Pacariz, S. V.: The subpolar gyre regulates silicate concentrations in the North Atlantic, Sci. Rep., 7, 14576, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14837-4, 2017.
Hátún, H., Chafik, L., and Larsen, K. M. H.: The Norwegian Sea gyre – a regulator of Iceland-Scotland ridge exchanges, Frontiers in Marine Science, 8, 694614, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.694614, 2021.
Holliday, N. P., Bersch, M., Berx, B., Chafik, L., Cunningham, S., Florindo-López, C., Hátún, H., Johns, W., Josey, S. A., Larsen, K. M. H., and Mulet, S.: Ocean circulation causes the largest freshening event for 120 years in eastern subpolar North Atlantic, Nat. Commun., 11, 585, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14474-y, 2020.
Hughes, P. J., Bourassa, M. A., Rolph, J. J., and Smith, S. R.: Averaging-related biases in monthly latent heat fluxes, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 29, 974–986, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00184.1, 2012.
Hurrell, J. W.: Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation, Science, 269, 676–679, 1995.
Ilyina, T., Li, H., Spring, A., Müller, W. A., Bopp, L., Chikamoto, M. O., Danabasoglu, G., Dobrynin, M., Dunne, J., Fransner, F., and Friedlingstein, P.: Predictable variations of the carbon sinks and atmospheric CO2 growth in a multi-model framework, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090695, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090695, 2021.
Jones, C. D., Arora, V., Friedlingstein, P., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., Dunne, J., Graven, H., Hoffman, F., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., Jung, M., Kawamiya, M., Koven, C., Pongratz, J., Raddatz, T., Randerson, J. T., and Zaehle, S.: C4MIP – The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: experimental protocol for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016.
Josey, S. A., Kent, E. C., and Taylor, P. K.: Seasonal variations between sampling and classical mean turbulent heat flux estimates in the eastern North Atlantic, Ann. Geophys., 13, 1054–1064, 1995.
Kerr, R. A.: A North Atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries, Science, 288, 1984–1985, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.288.5473.1984, 2000.
Khatiwala, S., Primeau, F., and Hall, T.: Reconstruction of the history of anthropogenic CO2 concentrations in the ocean, Nature, 462, 346–349, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08526, 2009.
Khatiwala, S., Tanhua, T., Mikaloff Fletcher, S., Gerber, M., Doney, S. C., Graven, H. D., Gruber, N., McKinley, G. A., Murata, A., Ríos, A. F., and Sabine, C. L.: Global ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon, Biogeosciences, 10, 2169–2191, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2169-2013, 2013.
Kwiatkowski, L., Torres, O., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Chamberlain, M., Christian, J. R., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., Lenton, A., Li, H., Lovenduski, N. S., Orr, J. C., Palmieri, J., Santana-Falcón, Y., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Stock, C. A., Tagliabue, A., Takano, Y., Tjiputra, J., Toyama, K., Tsujino, H., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Yool, A., and Ziehn, T.: Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections, Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020.
Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., and Bakker, D. C.: Decadal variations and trends of the global ocean carbon sink, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 30, 1396–1417, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005359, 2016.
Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Hauck, J., John, J. G., Lima, I. D., Seferian, R., and Völker, C.: Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem, Biogeosciences, 13, 4023–4047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, 2016.
Lee, J.-Y., Marotzke, J., Bala, G., Cao, L., Corti, S., Dunne, J. P., Engelbrecht, F., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J. C., Jones, C., Maycock, A., Mutemi, J., Ndiaye, O., Panickal, S., and Zhou, T.: Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 553–672, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.006, 2021.
Leseurre, C., Lo Monaco, C., Reverdin, G., Metzl, N., Fin, J., Olafsdottir, S., and Racapé, V.: Ocean carbonate system variability in the North Atlantic Subpolar surface water (1993–2017), Biogeosciences, 17, 2553–2577, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2553-2020, 2020.
Li, H., Ilyina, T., Müller, W. A., and Sienz, F.: Decadal predictions of the North Atlantic CO2 uptake, Nat. Commun., 7, 11076, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11076, 2016.
Liu, Y., Moore, J. K., Primeau, F., and Wang, W. L.: Reduced CO2 uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 83–90, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01555-7, 2023.
Lozier, M. S., Li, F., Bacon, S., Bahr, F., Bower, A. S., Cunningham, S. A., de Jong, M. F., de Steur, L., deYoung, B., Fischer, J., and Gary, S. F.: A sea change in our view of overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic, Science, 363, 516–521, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau6592, 2019.
Madec, G. and the NEMO team: NEMO ocean engine, Note du Pole de modelisation, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), France, 27, ISSN 1288-1619, 2015.
McKinley, G. A., Bennington, V., Meinshausen, M., and Nicholls, Z.: Modern air-sea flux distributions reduce uncertainty in the future ocean carbon sink, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 044011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc195, 2023.
Mikaloff Fletcher, S. E., Gruber, N., Jacobson, A. R., Doney, S. C., Dutkiewicz, S., Gerber, M., Follows, M., Joos, F., Lindsay, K., Menemenlis, D., Mouchet, A., Müller, S. A., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Inverse estimates of anthropogenic CO2 uptake, transport, and storage by the ocean, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, GB2002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GB002530, 2006.
Orvik, K. A.: Long-term moored current and temperature measurements of the Atlantic inflow into the Nordic Seas in the Norwegian Atlantic Current; 1995–2020, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096427, 2022.
Østerhus, S., Woodgate, R., Valdimarsson, H., Turrell, B., de Steur, L., Quadfasel, D., Olsen, S. M., Moritz, M., Lee, C. M., Larsen, K. M. H., Jónsson, S., Johnson, C., Jochumsen, K., Hansen, B., Curry, B., Cunningham, S., and Berx, B.: Arctic Mediterranean exchanges: a consistent volume budget and trends in transports from two decades of observations, Ocean Sci., 15, 379–399, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-379-2019, 2019.
Polyakov, I. V., Beszczynska, A., Carmack, E. C., Dmitrenko, I. A., Fahrbach, E., Frolov, I. E., Gerdes, R., Hansen, E., Holfort, J., Ivanov, V. V., and Johnson, M. A.: One more step toward a warmer Arctic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L17605, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023740, 2005.
Ruosteenoja, K., Vihma, T., and Venäläinen, A.: Projected changes in European and North Atlantic seasonal wind climate derived from CMIP5 simulations, J. Climate, 32, 6467–6490, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0023.1, 2019.
Sabine, C. L., Feely, R. A., Gruber, N., Key, R. M., Lee, K., Bullister, J. L., Wanninkhof, R., Wong, C., Wallace, D. W., and Tilbrook, B.: The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2, Science, 305, 367–371, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1097403, 2004.
Sanders, R., Henson, S. A., Koski, M., Christina, L. D. L. R., Painter, S. C., Poulton, A. J., Riley, J., Salihoglu, B., Visser, A., Yool, A., and Bellerby, R.: The biological carbon pump in the North Atlantic, Prog. Oceanogr., 129, 200–218, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2014.05.005, 2014.
Schulzweida, U., Müller, R., Kornblüh, L., Ansorge, C., and Quast, R.: CDO–Climate Data Operators–v2. 5.0. Center for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences (ZMAW), Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, University of Hamburg, https://code.mpimet.mpg.de/projects/cdo/embedded/index.html (last access: 10 March 2025), 2012 (last update: November 2024).
Sigman, D. M. and Boyle, E. A.: Glacial/interglacial variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide, Nature, 407, 859–869, https://doi.org/10.1038/35038000, 2000.
Simmonds, I. and Dix, M.: The use of mean atmospheric parameters in the calculation of modeled mean surface heat fluxes over the world's oceans, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 19, 205–215, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1989)019<0205:TUOMAP>2.0.CO;2, 1989.
Simmonds, I. and Keay, K.: Surface fluxes of momentum and mechanical energy over the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans, Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 80, 1–18, 2002.
Takahashi, T., Broecker, W. S., and Langer, S.: Redfield ratio based on chemical data from isopycnal surfaces, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 90, 6907–6924, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC090iC04p06907, 1985.
Takahashi, T., Sutherland, S. C., Wanninkhof, R., Sweeney, C., Feely, R. A., Chipman, D. W., Hales, B., Friederich, G., Chavez, F., and Sabine, C.: Climatological mean and decadal change in surface ocean pCO2, and net sea–air CO2 flux over the global oceans, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 56, 554–577, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.12.009, 2009.
Terhaar, J.: Drivers of decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink in the past, present, and future in Earth system models, Biogeosciences, 21, 3903–3926, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024, 2024.
Terhaar, J., Frölicher, T. L., and Joos, F.: Observation-constrained estimates of the global ocean carbon sink from Earth system models, Biogeosciences, 19, 4431–4457, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022, 2022.
Thomas, M. D. and Zhang, R.: Two sources of deep decadal variability in the central Labrador Sea open-ocean convection region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL098825, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098825, 2022.
Tian, T., Yang, S., Karami, M. P., Massonnet, F., Kruschke, T., and Koenigk, T.: Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4283–4305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021, 2021.
Turner, S. M., Malin, G., Nightingale, P. D., and Liss, P. S.: Seasonal variation of dimethyl sulphide in the North Sea and an assessment of fluxes to the atmosphere, Marine Chem., 54, 245–262, https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4203(96)00028-X, 1996.
Vancoppenolle, M., Bopp, L., Madec, G., Dunne, J., Ilyina, T., Halloran, P. R., and Steiner, N.: Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms, Global Biogeochem. cycles, 27, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.1002/gbc.20055, 2013.
Volk, T. and Hoffert, M. I.: Ocean carbon pumps: Analysis of relative strengths and efficiencies in ocean‐driven atmospheric CO2 changes, in: The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2: Natural variations Archean to present, 32, 99–110, https://doi.org/10.1029/GM032p0099, 1985.
Volkov, D. L., Smith, R. H., Garcia, R. F., Smeed, D. A., Moat, B. I., Johns, W. E., and Baringer, M. O.: Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state, Nat. Commun., 15, 7780, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51879-5, 2024.
Wanninkhof, R.: Relationship between wind speed and gas exchange over the ocean, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 97, 7373–7382, https://doi.org/10.1029/92JC00188, 1992.
Wanninkhof, R.: Relationship between wind speed and gas exchange over the ocean revisited, Limnol. Oceanogr.-Methods, 12, 351–362, https://doi.org/10.4319/lom.2014.12.351, 2014.
Yu, J., Menviel, L., Jin, Z. D., Thornalley, D. J. R., Foster, G. L., Rohling, E. J., McCave, I. N., McManus, J. F., Dai, Y., Ren, H., and He, F.: More efficient North Atlantic carbon pump during the last glacial maximum, Nat. Commun., 10, 2170, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10028-z, 2019.
Zhang, G. J.: Use of monthly mean data to compute surface turbulent fluxes in the tropical Pacific, J. Climate, 8, 3084–3090, 1995.
Zou, S., Bower, A. S., Lozier, M. S., and Furey, H. H.: Deep ocean circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic observed by acoustically-tracked floats, Prog. Oceanogr., 211, 102975, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.102975, 2023.
Short summary
The North Atlantic plays a crucial role in absorbing atmospheric CO2, but its air–sea CO2 flux varies across time and space. Using historical climate model simulations, we investigate how physical and oceanic processes drive the variability. Our results show that sea ice, temperature, salinity, wind stress, and ocean circulation shape CO2 exchange, with short-term fluctuations playing a dominant role. Understanding these complex interactions is key to predicting future ocean carbon uptake.
The North Atlantic plays a crucial role in absorbing atmospheric CO2, but its air–sea CO2 flux...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint