Articles | Volume 19, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The European forest carbon budget under future climate conditions and current management practices
Roberto Pilli
independent researcher: Padua, Italy
Ramdane Alkama
Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, Via E. Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Alessandro Cescatti
Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, Via E. Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Werner A. Kurz
Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, BC, V8Z 1M5, Canada
Giacomo Grassi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, Via E. Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
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Cited
42 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Climate change, more than management, drives short- and long-term changes in iWUE in a sub-Alpine beech forest V. Saponaro et al.
- Assessing the economic tradeoffs of various forest management activities to enhance carbon sequestration efforts in Pennsylvania and Maryland S. Gc et al.
- Exploring the Potential of Roadside Plantation for Carbon Sequestration Using Simulation in Southern Quebec, Canada N. Srour et al.
- Drivers of forest productivity in two regions of the United States: Relative impacts of management and environmental variables H. Karimi et al.
- Forest carbon stock development following extreme drought-induced dieback of coniferous stands in Central Europe: a CBM-CFS3 model application E. Cienciala & J. Melichar
- Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for production forests: Trade-offs, synergies, and uncertainties in biodiversity and ecosystem services delivery in Northern Europe A. Felton et al.
- Assessment of Phytomass and Carbon Stock in the Ecosystems of the Central Forest Steppe of the East European Plain: Integrated Approach of Terrestrial Environmental Monitoring and Remote Sensing with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles V. Slavskiy et al.
- Global pattern of forest disturbances and its shift under climate change J. Altman et al.
- Between a log and a hard place: European forests under competing demands T. Laimer et al.
- Impacts of Cross-Sectoral Climate Policy on Forest Carbon Sinks and Their Spatial Spillover: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data H. Zhu et al.
- Securing the forest carbon sink for the European Union’s climate ambition M. Migliavacca et al.
- Modeling climate-smart forest management and wood use for climate mitigation potential in Maryland and Pennsylvania C. Papa et al.
- Middle-aged forests in the Eastern U.S. have significant climate mitigation potential R. Birdsey et al.
- European Union agro-climate policies toward sustainability: Analyzing emission trends and land use dynamics (1990–2021) S. Mohammed et al.
- Adapting forest management to climate change impacts and policy targets in the EU: Insights from the coupled GLOBIOM/G4M-i3PGmiX model A. Augustynczik et al.
- Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6 A. Amali et al.
- Effects of intrinsic water-use efficiency and environmental factors on radial growth of Populus euphratica, Taklamakan Desert, China A. Abdureyim et al.
- The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2020 M. McGrath et al.
- Tree biomass models for the entire production cycle of Quercus suber C. Jorge et al.
- Growth and drought reaction of European hornbeam, European white elm, field maple and wild service tree J. Schmucker et al.
- A review on the production and application of tall oil with a focus on sustainable fuels J. Churchill et al.
- Modeling and optimizing alpine forest management to maximize carbon sequestration S. Brocco et al.
- Pure and mixed Scots pine forests showed divergent responses to climate variation and increased intrinsic water use efficiency across a European-wide climate gradient S. Assefa et al.
- New Zero-Carbon Wooden Building Concepts: A Review of Selected Criteria A. Starzyk et al.
- Temperature extremes of 2022 reduced carbon uptake by forests in Europe A. van der Woude et al.
- The effects of geomorphology, soil and climate on the trajectory of aboveground biomass accumulation of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) at the southern range margin F. Latterini et al.
- Impact of Land-Use Changes on Climate Change Mitigation Goals: The Case of Lithuania R. Dagiliūtė & V. Kazanavičiūtė
- Impact of the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 on the EU wood-based bioeconomy F. Fulvio et al.
- Potential consequences of a rapid transition from rotation forestry to continous cover forestry in Sweden G. Stål et al.
- From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system F. Schreyer et al.
- Carbon Sequestration Dynamics in Peri-Urban Forests: Comparing Secondary Succession and Mature Stands under Varied Forest Management Practices C. Braga et al.
- Enhanced simulation of gross and net carbon fluxes in a managed Mediterranean forest by the use of multi-sensor data M. Chiesi et al.
- Assessing the combined effects of forest management and climate change on carbon and water fluxes in European beech forests V. Saponaro et al.
- Alternative approaches to forest sector carbon accounting and assessment: a literature review and synthesis B. Wang et al.
- Інформативне забезпечення моделювання біопродуктивності лісів Поліського природного заповідника P. Lakyda et al.
- Identifying compound weather drivers of forest biomass loss with generative deep learning M. Anand et al.
- Long-term forest-sector mitigation and radiative forcing under contrasting management, climate, and substitution pathways I. Boukhris et al.
- Machine learning-based prediction and assessment of recent dynamics of forest net primary productivity in Romania R. Prăvălie et al.
- Healthy diets and regional food production: Towards the 2030 targets of the European Green Deal C. Pecher et al.
- The role of forests in the EU climate policy: are we on the right track? A. Korosuo et al.
- Harmonised statistics and maps of forest biomass and increment in Europe V. Avitabile et al.
- Carbon module: An open-source python package for global forest carbon accounting T. Honkomp
42 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Climate change, more than management, drives short- and long-term changes in iWUE in a sub-Alpine beech forest V. Saponaro et al.
- Assessing the economic tradeoffs of various forest management activities to enhance carbon sequestration efforts in Pennsylvania and Maryland S. Gc et al.
- Exploring the Potential of Roadside Plantation for Carbon Sequestration Using Simulation in Southern Quebec, Canada N. Srour et al.
- Drivers of forest productivity in two regions of the United States: Relative impacts of management and environmental variables H. Karimi et al.
- Forest carbon stock development following extreme drought-induced dieback of coniferous stands in Central Europe: a CBM-CFS3 model application E. Cienciala & J. Melichar
- Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for production forests: Trade-offs, synergies, and uncertainties in biodiversity and ecosystem services delivery in Northern Europe A. Felton et al.
- Assessment of Phytomass and Carbon Stock in the Ecosystems of the Central Forest Steppe of the East European Plain: Integrated Approach of Terrestrial Environmental Monitoring and Remote Sensing with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles V. Slavskiy et al.
- Global pattern of forest disturbances and its shift under climate change J. Altman et al.
- Between a log and a hard place: European forests under competing demands T. Laimer et al.
- Impacts of Cross-Sectoral Climate Policy on Forest Carbon Sinks and Their Spatial Spillover: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data H. Zhu et al.
- Securing the forest carbon sink for the European Union’s climate ambition M. Migliavacca et al.
- Modeling climate-smart forest management and wood use for climate mitigation potential in Maryland and Pennsylvania C. Papa et al.
- Middle-aged forests in the Eastern U.S. have significant climate mitigation potential R. Birdsey et al.
- European Union agro-climate policies toward sustainability: Analyzing emission trends and land use dynamics (1990–2021) S. Mohammed et al.
- Adapting forest management to climate change impacts and policy targets in the EU: Insights from the coupled GLOBIOM/G4M-i3PGmiX model A. Augustynczik et al.
- Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6 A. Amali et al.
- Effects of intrinsic water-use efficiency and environmental factors on radial growth of Populus euphratica, Taklamakan Desert, China A. Abdureyim et al.
- The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2020 M. McGrath et al.
- Tree biomass models for the entire production cycle of Quercus suber C. Jorge et al.
- Growth and drought reaction of European hornbeam, European white elm, field maple and wild service tree J. Schmucker et al.
- A review on the production and application of tall oil with a focus on sustainable fuels J. Churchill et al.
- Modeling and optimizing alpine forest management to maximize carbon sequestration S. Brocco et al.
- Pure and mixed Scots pine forests showed divergent responses to climate variation and increased intrinsic water use efficiency across a European-wide climate gradient S. Assefa et al.
- New Zero-Carbon Wooden Building Concepts: A Review of Selected Criteria A. Starzyk et al.
- Temperature extremes of 2022 reduced carbon uptake by forests in Europe A. van der Woude et al.
- The effects of geomorphology, soil and climate on the trajectory of aboveground biomass accumulation of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) at the southern range margin F. Latterini et al.
- Impact of Land-Use Changes on Climate Change Mitigation Goals: The Case of Lithuania R. Dagiliūtė & V. Kazanavičiūtė
- Impact of the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 on the EU wood-based bioeconomy F. Fulvio et al.
- Potential consequences of a rapid transition from rotation forestry to continous cover forestry in Sweden G. Stål et al.
- From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system F. Schreyer et al.
- Carbon Sequestration Dynamics in Peri-Urban Forests: Comparing Secondary Succession and Mature Stands under Varied Forest Management Practices C. Braga et al.
- Enhanced simulation of gross and net carbon fluxes in a managed Mediterranean forest by the use of multi-sensor data M. Chiesi et al.
- Assessing the combined effects of forest management and climate change on carbon and water fluxes in European beech forests V. Saponaro et al.
- Alternative approaches to forest sector carbon accounting and assessment: a literature review and synthesis B. Wang et al.
- Інформативне забезпечення моделювання біопродуктивності лісів Поліського природного заповідника P. Lakyda et al.
- Identifying compound weather drivers of forest biomass loss with generative deep learning M. Anand et al.
- Long-term forest-sector mitigation and radiative forcing under contrasting management, climate, and substitution pathways I. Boukhris et al.
- Machine learning-based prediction and assessment of recent dynamics of forest net primary productivity in Romania R. Prăvălie et al.
- Healthy diets and regional food production: Towards the 2030 targets of the European Green Deal C. Pecher et al.
- The role of forests in the EU climate policy: are we on the right track? A. Korosuo et al.
- Harmonised statistics and maps of forest biomass and increment in Europe V. Avitabile et al.
- Carbon module: An open-source python package for global forest carbon accounting T. Honkomp
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 28 Apr 2026
Short summary
To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) forest C sink should increase to −450 Mt CO2 yr-1. Our study highlights that under current management practices (i.e. excluding any policy scenario) the forest C sink of the EU27 member states and the UK may decrease to about −250 Mt CO2eq yr-1 in 2050. The expected impacts of future climate change, however, add a considerable uncertainty, potentially nearly doubling or halving the sink associated with forest management.
To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) forest C sink should increase to...
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