Articles | Volume 19, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022
Research article
 | 
13 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 13 Jul 2022

The European forest carbon budget under future climate conditions and current management practices

Roberto Pilli, Ramdane Alkama, Alessandro Cescatti, Werner A. Kurz, and Giacomo Grassi

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Cited articles

Avitabile, V., Pilli, R., and Camia, A.: The biomass of European forests, EUR 30462 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 52 pp., https://doi.org/10.2760/758855, 2020. 
Blujdea, V. N., Sikkema, R., Dutca, I., and Nabuurs, G. J.: Two large-scale forest scenario modelling approaches for reporting CO2 removal: a comparison for the Romanian forests, Carbon Balance and Management, 16, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-021-00188-1, 2021a. 
Blujdea, V. N., Viskari, T., Kulmala, L., Gârbacea, G., Dutcǎ, I., Miclǎuş, M., Marin, G., and Liski, J.: Silvicultural interventions drive the changes in soil organic carbon in Romanian forests according to two model simulations, Forests, 12, 795, https://doi.org/10.3390/f12060795, 2021b. 
Bosela, M., Tumajer, J., Cienciala, E., Dobor, L., Kulla, L., Marčiš, P., Popa, I., Sedmák, R., Sedmáková, D., Sitko, R., S̆eben̆, V., Štěpánek, P., and Büntgen, U. : Climate warming induced synchronous growth decline in Norway spruce populations across biogeographical gradients since 2000, Sci. Total Environ., 752, 141794, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141794, 2021. 
Böttcher, H. and Frelih-Larsen, A.: Options for Strengthening Natural Carbon Sinks and Reducing Land Use Emissions in the EU, Öko-Institut e.V., Working paper, 66 pp., https://www.oeko.de/en/publications/p-details/options-for-strengthening-natural-carbon-sinks-and-reducing-land-use-emissions-in-the-eu (last access: 27 June 2022), 2021. 
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To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) forest C sink should increase to −450 Mt CO2 yr-1. Our study highlights that under current management practices (i.e. excluding any policy scenario) the forest C sink of the EU27 member states and the UK may decrease to about −250 Mt CO2eq yr-1 in 2050. The expected impacts of future climate change, however, add a considerable uncertainty, potentially nearly doubling or halving the sink associated with forest management.
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