Articles | Volume 19, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
15 Sep 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 15 Sep 2022
| 15 Sep 2022
Observation-constrained estimates of the global ocean carbon sink from Earth system models
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of
Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern,
Switzerland
Thomas L. Frölicher
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of
Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern,
Switzerland
Fortunat Joos
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of
Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern,
Switzerland
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- Composite model-based estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022 J. Terhaar 10.5194/bg-22-1631-2025
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- Trends and variability in the ocean carbon sink N. Gruber et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00381-x
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- Reconstructing ocean carbon storage with CMIP6 Earth system models and synthetic Argo observations K. Turner et al. 10.5194/bg-20-1671-2023
- Drivers of decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink in the past, present, and future in Earth system models J. Terhaar 10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024
- Breathing Planet Earth: Analysis of Keeling’s Data on CO2 and O2 with Respiratory Quotient (RQ), Part I: Global Respiratory Quotient (RQGlob) of Earth K. Annamalai 10.3390/en17020299
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- An observation-based method to estimate carbonate system variations in the Labrador Sea C. Boteler et al. 10.3389/fmars.2024.1500225
- Ocean alkalinity destruction by anthropogenic seafloor disturbances generates a hidden CO 2 emission S. van de Velde et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adp9112
- Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Storage of Anthropogenic Carbon From 1994 to 2014 J. Müller et al. 10.1029/2023AV000875
- Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s J. Terhaar et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-55297-5
- Internal climate variability modulates decadal changes in ocean anthropogenic carbon storage H. Olivarez et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ada2ad
- Harmonizing direct and indirect anthropogenic land carbon fluxes indicates a substantial missing sink in the global carbon budget since the early 20th century A. Walker et al. 10.1002/ppp3.10619
- Global Carbon Budget 2022 P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022
- Magnitude, Trends, and Variability of the Global Ocean Carbon Sink From 1985 to 2018 T. DeVries et al. 10.1029/2023GB007780
- Constraining the trend in the ocean CO2 sink during 2000–2022 N. Mayot et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-52641-7
- The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization S. Palazzo Corner et al. 10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744
- Do whales really increase the oceanic removal of atmospheric carbon? J. Meynecke et al. 10.3389/fmars.2023.1117409
- The Ocean Carbon and Acidification Data System L. Jiang et al. 10.1038/s41597-023-02042-0
- Global Carbon Budget 2023 P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023
- Ocean acidification in emission-driven temperature stabilization scenarios: the role of TCRE and non-CO2 greenhouse gases J. Terhaar et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acaf91
- Competing effects of wind and buoyancy forcing on ocean oxygen trends in recent decades H. Hollitzer et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-53557-y
- Modulation of regional carbon uptake by AMOC and alkalinity changes in the subpolar North Atlantic under a warming climate Q. Zhang et al. 10.3389/fmars.2024.1304193
- Global Surface Ocean Acidification Indicators From 1750 to 2100 L. Jiang et al. 10.1029/2022MS003563
- Sparse observations induce large biases in estimates of the global ocean CO 2 sink: an ocean model subsampling experiment J. Hauck et al. 10.1098/rsta.2022.0063
- Physical inconsistencies in the representation of the ocean heat-carbon nexus in simple climate models R. Séférian et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01464-x
- Global Carbon Budget 2024 P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.5194/essd-17-965-2025
- The oceans store more carbon than thought — but not enough to save the planet 10.1038/d41586-022-03033-8
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- CO2 fluxes under different oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean C. Rodrigues et al. 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2023.103949
- Southern Ocean phytoplankton under climate change: a shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down control T. Xue et al. 10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024
- Ocean carbon sink assessment via temperature and salinity data assimilation into a global ocean biogeochemistry model F. Bunsen et al. 10.5194/os-21-437-2025
- Modern air-sea flux distributions reduce uncertainty in the future ocean carbon sink G. McKinley et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acc195
- AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization Y. Silvy et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024
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Latest update: 08 May 2025
Co-editor-in-chief
Accurate constraining the ocean carbon sink is of utmost importance to improve our understanding of the fate of anthropogenic carbon and to better project anthropogenic carbon uptake in the coming decades. This study combines the outcomes of a suite of earth-system models with three well-documented observations (sea surface salinity in the Southern Ocean, strength of Atlantic Overturning and Revelle factor) to reduce bias and uncertainty in the global ocean carbon sink. The results suggest that the ocean carbon sink is about 10% larger than estimated before. This has implications for the global carbon budget.
Accurate constraining the ocean carbon sink is of utmost importance to improve our understanding...
Short summary
Estimates of the ocean sink of anthropogenic carbon vary across various approaches. We show that the global ocean carbon sink can be estimated by three parameters, two of which approximate the ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and one of which approximates the chemical capacity of the ocean to take up carbon. With observations of these parameters, we estimate that the global ocean carbon sink is 10 % larger than previously assumed, and we cut uncertainties in half.
Estimates of the ocean sink of anthropogenic carbon vary across various approaches. We show that...
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