Articles | Volume 19, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
15 Sep 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 15 Sep 2022
| 15 Sep 2022
Observation-constrained estimates of the global ocean carbon sink from Earth system models
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of
Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern,
Switzerland
Thomas L. Frölicher
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of
Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern,
Switzerland
Fortunat Joos
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of
Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern,
Switzerland
Related authors
Li-Qing Jiang, Amanda Fay, Jens Daniel Müller, Lydia Keppler, Dustin Carroll, Siv K. Lauvset, Tim DeVries, Judith Hauck, Christian Rödenbeck, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Metzl, Andrea J. Fassbender, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Peter Landschützer, Rik Wanninkhof, Christopher Sabine, Simone R. Alin, Mario Hoppema, Are Olsen, Matthew P. Humphreys, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Nicole Besemer, Henry C. Bittig, Albert E. Boyd, Daniel Broullón, Wei-Jun Cai, Brendan R. Carter, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Chen-Tung Arthur Chen, Frédéric Cyr, John E. Dore, Ian Enochs, Richard A. Feely, Hernan E. Garcia, Marion Gehlen, Lucas Gloege, Melchor González-Dávila, Nicolas Gruber, Yosuke Iida, Masao Ishii, Esther Kennedy, Alex Kozyr, Nico Lange, Claire Lo Monaco, Derek P. Manzello, Galen A. McKinley, Natalie M. Monacci, Xose A. Padin, Ana M. Palacio-Castro, Fiz F. Pérez, Alizée Roobaert, J. Magdalena Santana-Casiano, Jonathan Sharp, Adrienne Sutton, Jim Swift, Toste Tanhua, Maciej Telszewski, Jens Terhaar, Ruben van Hooidonk, Anton Velo, Andrew J. Watson, Angelicque E. White, Zelun Wu, Hyelim Yoo, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-255, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This review article provides an overview of 60 existing ocean carbonate chemistry data products, encompassing a broad range of types, including compilations of cruise datasets, gap-filled observational products, model simulations, and more. It is designed to help researchers identify and access the data products that best support their scientific objectives, thereby facilitating progress in understanding the ocean's changing carbonate chemistry.
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean heat uptake (OHU) accounts for over 90% of the Earth's excess energy storage due to climate change, but future (OHU) projections strongly differ between climate models. Here, we reveal an observational constraint on future OHU using historical Antarctic sea ice extent observations. This emergent constraint is based on a coupling between sea ice, deep and surface ocean temperatures, and cloud feedback. It implies an upward correction of 2024–2100 global OHU projections by up to 14%.
Jens Terhaar
Biogeosciences, 22, 1631–1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1631-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1631-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean is a major natural carbon sink. Despite its importance, estimates of the ocean carbon sink remain uncertain. Here, I present a hybrid model estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022. By combining ocean models in hindcast mode and Earth system models, I keep the strength of each approach and remove the respective weaknesses. This composite model estimate is similar in magnitude to the best estimate of the Global Carbon Budget but 70 % less uncertain.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Jens Terhaar
Biogeosciences, 21, 3903–3926, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the ocean’s importance in the carbon cycle and hence the climate, observing the ocean carbon sink remains challenging. Here, I use an ensemble of 12 models to understand drivers of decadal trends of the past, present, and future ocean carbon sink. I show that 80 % of the decadal trends in the multi-model mean ocean carbon sink can be explained by changes in decadal trends in atmospheric CO2. The remaining 20 % are due to internal climate variability and ocean heat uptake.
Tianfei Xue, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, Andreas Oschlies, and Ivy Frenger
Biogeosciences, 21, 2473–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton play a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Jens Terhaar, Olivier Torres, Timothée Bourgeois, and Lester Kwiatkowski
Biogeosciences, 18, 2221–2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The uptake of carbon, emitted as a result of human activities, results in ocean acidification. We analyse 21st-century projections of acidification in the Arctic Ocean, a region of particular vulnerability, using the latest generation of Earth system models. In this new generation of models there is a large decrease in the uncertainty associated with projections of Arctic Ocean acidification, with freshening playing a greater role in driving acidification than previously simulated.
Li-Qing Jiang, Amanda Fay, Jens Daniel Müller, Lydia Keppler, Dustin Carroll, Siv K. Lauvset, Tim DeVries, Judith Hauck, Christian Rödenbeck, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Metzl, Andrea J. Fassbender, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Peter Landschützer, Rik Wanninkhof, Christopher Sabine, Simone R. Alin, Mario Hoppema, Are Olsen, Matthew P. Humphreys, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Nicole Besemer, Henry C. Bittig, Albert E. Boyd, Daniel Broullón, Wei-Jun Cai, Brendan R. Carter, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Chen-Tung Arthur Chen, Frédéric Cyr, John E. Dore, Ian Enochs, Richard A. Feely, Hernan E. Garcia, Marion Gehlen, Lucas Gloege, Melchor González-Dávila, Nicolas Gruber, Yosuke Iida, Masao Ishii, Esther Kennedy, Alex Kozyr, Nico Lange, Claire Lo Monaco, Derek P. Manzello, Galen A. McKinley, Natalie M. Monacci, Xose A. Padin, Ana M. Palacio-Castro, Fiz F. Pérez, Alizée Roobaert, J. Magdalena Santana-Casiano, Jonathan Sharp, Adrienne Sutton, Jim Swift, Toste Tanhua, Maciej Telszewski, Jens Terhaar, Ruben van Hooidonk, Anton Velo, Andrew J. Watson, Angelicque E. White, Zelun Wu, Hyelim Yoo, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-255, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This review article provides an overview of 60 existing ocean carbonate chemistry data products, encompassing a broad range of types, including compilations of cruise datasets, gap-filled observational products, model simulations, and more. It is designed to help researchers identify and access the data products that best support their scientific objectives, thereby facilitating progress in understanding the ocean's changing carbonate chemistry.
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean heat uptake (OHU) accounts for over 90% of the Earth's excess energy storage due to climate change, but future (OHU) projections strongly differ between climate models. Here, we reveal an observational constraint on future OHU using historical Antarctic sea ice extent observations. This emergent constraint is based on a coupling between sea ice, deep and surface ocean temperatures, and cloud feedback. It implies an upward correction of 2024–2100 global OHU projections by up to 14%.
Jens Terhaar
Biogeosciences, 22, 1631–1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1631-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1631-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean is a major natural carbon sink. Despite its importance, estimates of the ocean carbon sink remain uncertain. Here, I present a hybrid model estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022. By combining ocean models in hindcast mode and Earth system models, I keep the strength of each approach and remove the respective weaknesses. This composite model estimate is similar in magnitude to the best estimate of the Global Carbon Budget but 70 % less uncertain.
Markus Adloff, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Frerk Pöppelmeier, Thomas F. Stocker, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 21, 571–592, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-571-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-571-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated how different processes affected the carbon cycle over the last eight glacial cycles. We found that the effects of interactive marine sediments enlarge the carbon fluxes that result from these processes, especially in the ocean, and alter various proxy signals. We provide an assessment of the directions of regional and global proxy changes that might be expected in response to different glacial–interglacial Earth system changes in the presence of interactive marine sediments.
Anne L. Morée, Fabrice Lacroix, William W. L. Cheung, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 22, 1115–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using novel Earth system model simulations and applying the Aerobic Growth Index, we show that only about half of the habitat loss for marine species is realized when temperature stabilization is initially reached. The maximum habitat loss happens over a century after peak warming in a temperature overshoot scenario peaking at 2 °C before stabilizing at 1.5 °C. We also emphasize that species adaptation may be key in mitigating the long-term impacts of temperature stabilization and overshoot.
Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara H. Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek Müller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Yi Xi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 22, 305–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change.
Fortunat Joos, Sebastian Lienert, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 19–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-19-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
How plants regulate their exchange of CO2 and water with the atmosphere under global warming is critical for their carbon uptake and their cooling influence. We analyze the isotope ratio of atmospheric CO2 and detect no significant decadal trends in the seasonal cycle amplitude. The data are consistent with the regulation towards leaf CO2 and intrinsic water use efficiency growing proportionally to atmospheric CO2, in contrast to recent suggestions of downregulation of CO2 and water fluxes.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Timothée Bourgeois, Olivier Torres, Friederike Fröb, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Giang T. Tran, Jörg Schwinger, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jean Negrel, David Keller, Andreas Oschlies, Laurent Bopp, and Fortunat Joos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2768, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions significantly impact ocean ecosystems through climate change and acidification, leading to either progressive or abrupt changes. This study maps the crossing of physical and ecological limits for various ocean impact metrics under three emission scenarios. Using Earth system models, we identify when these limits are exceeded, highlighting the urgent need for ambitious climate action to safeguard the world's oceans and ecosystems.
Jens Terhaar
Biogeosciences, 21, 3903–3926, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the ocean’s importance in the carbon cycle and hence the climate, observing the ocean carbon sink remains challenging. Here, I use an ensemble of 12 models to understand drivers of decadal trends of the past, present, and future ocean carbon sink. I show that 80 % of the decadal trends in the multi-model mean ocean carbon sink can be explained by changes in decadal trends in atmospheric CO2. The remaining 20 % are due to internal climate variability and ocean heat uptake.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Markus Adloff, Frerk Pöppelmeier, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Thomas F. Stocker, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 20, 1233–1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1233-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1233-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an ocean current that transports heat into the North Atlantic. Over the ice age cycles, AMOC strength and its spatial pattern varied. We tested the role of heat forcing for these AMOC changes by simulating the temperature changes of the last eight glacial cycles. In our model, AMOC shifts between four distinct circulation modes caused by heat and salt redistributions that reproduce reconstructed long-term North Atlantic SST changes.
Tianfei Xue, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, Andreas Oschlies, and Ivy Frenger
Biogeosciences, 21, 2473–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton play a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 20, 449–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Luke Skinner, Francois Primeau, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Peter Köhler, and Edouard Bard
Clim. Past, 19, 2177–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Radiocarbon is best known as a dating tool, but it also allows us to track CO2 exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. Using decades of data and novel mapping methods, we have charted the ocean’s average radiocarbon ″age” since the last Ice Age. Combined with climate model simulations, these data quantify the ocean’s role in atmospheric CO2 rise since the last Ice Age while also revealing that Earth likely received far more cosmic radiation during the last Ice Age than hitherto believed.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Almut Arneth, Stefanie Falk, Atul K. Jain, Fortunat Joos, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Naiqing Pan, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Nicolas Vuichard, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 767–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen (N) is an essential limiting nutrient to terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration. We evaluate N cycling in an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models. We find that variability in N processes across models is large. Models tended to overestimate C storage per unit N in vegetation and soil, which could have consequences for projecting the future terrestrial C sink. However, N cycling measurements are highly uncertain, and more are necessary to guide the development of N cycling in models.
Anne L. Morée, Tayler M. Clarke, William W. L. Cheung, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 20, 2425–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean temperature and oxygen shape marine habitats together with species’ characteristics. We calculated the impacts of projected 21st-century warming and oxygen loss on the contemporary habitat volume of 47 marine species and described the drivers of these impacts. Most species lose less than 5 % of their habitat at 2 °C of global warming, but some species incur losses 2–3 times greater than that. We also calculate which species may be most vulnerable to climate change and why this is the case.
Natacha Le Grix, Jakob Zscheischler, Keith B. Rodgers, Ryohei Yamaguchi, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 19, 5807–5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5807-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events threaten marine ecosystems. Here, we investigate the potentially harmful combination of marine heatwaves with low phytoplankton productivity. Using satellite-based observations, we show that these compound events are frequent in the low latitudes. We then investigate the drivers of these compound events using Earth system models. The models share similar drivers in the low latitudes but disagree in the high latitudes due to divergent factors limiting phytoplankton production.
Elisabeth Tschumi, Sebastian Lienert, Karin van der Wiel, Fortunat Joos, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts and heatwaves are expected to occur more often in the future, but their effects on land vegetation and the carbon cycle are poorly understood. We use six climate scenarios with differing extreme occurrences and a vegetation model to analyse these effects. Tree coverage and associated plant productivity increase under a climate with no extremes. Frequent co-occurring droughts and heatwaves decrease plant productivity more than the combined effects of single droughts or heatwaves.
Loïc Schmidely, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jochen Schmitt, Juhyeong Han, Lucas Silva, Jinwha Shin, Fortunat Joos, Jérôme Chappellaz, Hubertus Fischer, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 17, 1627–1643, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1627-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using ancient gas trapped in polar glaciers, we reconstructed the atmospheric concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide over the penultimate deglaciation to study their response to major climate changes. We show this deglaciation to be characterized by modes of methane and nitrous oxide variability that are also found during the last deglaciation and glacial cycle.
Jurek Müller and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 18, 3657–3687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present long-term projections of global peatland area and carbon with a continuous transient history since the Last Glacial Maximum. Our novel results show that large parts of today’s northern peatlands are at risk from past and future climate change, with larger emissions clearly connected to larger risks. The study includes comparisons between different emission and land-use scenarios, driver attribution through factorial simulations, and assessments of uncertainty from climate forcing.
Jens Terhaar, Olivier Torres, Timothée Bourgeois, and Lester Kwiatkowski
Biogeosciences, 18, 2221–2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The uptake of carbon, emitted as a result of human activities, results in ocean acidification. We analyse 21st-century projections of acidification in the Arctic Ocean, a region of particular vulnerability, using the latest generation of Earth system models. In this new generation of models there is a large decrease in the uncertainty associated with projections of Arctic Ocean acidification, with freshening playing a greater role in driving acidification than previously simulated.
Shannon A. Bengtson, Laurie C. Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Lise Missiaen, Carlye D. Peterson, Lorraine E. Lisiecki, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 17, 507–528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The last interglacial was a warm period that may provide insights into future climates. Here, we compile and analyse stable carbon isotope data from the ocean during the last interglacial and compare it to the Holocene. The data show that Atlantic Ocean circulation was similar during the last interglacial and the Holocene. We also establish a difference in the mean oceanic carbon isotopic ratio between these periods, which was most likely caused by burial and weathering carbon fluxes.
Jurek Müller and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 17, 5285–5308, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5285-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5285-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present an in-depth model analysis of transient peatland area and carbon dynamics over the last 22 000 years. Our novel results show that the consideration of both gross positive and negative area changes are necessary to understand the transient evolution of peatlands and their net effect on atmospheric carbon. The study includes the attributions to drivers through factorial simulations, assessments of uncertainty from climate forcing, and determination of the global net carbon balance.
Cited articles
Albright, R., Caldeira, L., Hosfelt, J., Kwiatkowski, L., Maclaren, J. K.,
Mason, B. M., Nebuchina, Y., Ninokawa, A., Pongratz, J., Ricke, K. L.,
Rivlin, T., Schneider, K., Sesboüé, M., Shamberger, K., Silverman,
J., Wolfe, K., Zhu, K., and Caldeira, K.: Reversal of ocean acidification
enhances net coral reef calcification, Nature, 531, 362–365,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17155, 2016.
Aumont, O., Orr, J. C., Monfray, P., Ludwig, W., Amiotte-Suchet, P., and
Probst, J.-L.: Riverine-driven interhemispheric transport of carbon, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 393–405,
https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GB001238, 2001.
Bakker, P., Schmittner, A., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bi, D., van
den Broeke, M. R., Chan, W.-L., Hu, A., Beadling, R. L., Marsland, S. J.,
Mernild, S. H., Saenko, O. A., Swingedouw, D., Sullivan, A., and Yin, J.:
Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline
under continued warming and Greenland melting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43,
12252–12260, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070457, 2016.
Bednaršek, N., Tarling, G. A., Bakker, D. C. E., Fielding, S., and
Feely, R. A.: Dissolution Dominating Calcification Process in Polar
Pteropods Close to the Point of Aragonite Undersaturation, PLoS One, 9, e109183,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0109183, 2014.
Behrenfeld, M. J., Gaube, P., Della Penna, A., O'Malley, R. T., Burt, W. J.,
Hu, Y., Bontempi, P. S., Steinberg, D. K., Boss, E. S., Siegel, D. A.,
Hostetler, C. A., Tortell, P. D., and Doney, S. C.: Global
satellite-observed daily vertical migrations of ocean animals, Nature, 576,
257–261, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1796-9, 2019.
Bennington, V., Gloege, L., and McKinley, G. A.: Variability in the global ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2020 by correcting models with observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL098632, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098632, 2022.
Bentsen, M., Bethke, I., Debernard, J. B., Iversen, T., Kirkevåg, A., Seland, Ø., Drange, H., Roelandt, C., Seierstad, I. A., Hoose, C., and Kristjánsson, J. E.: The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 687–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013, 2013.
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y.,
Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P.,
Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A.,
Cugnet, D., D'Andrea, F., Davini, P., de Lavergne, C., Denvil, S., Deshayes,
J., Devilliers, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.-L., Dupont, E., Éthé,
C., Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Flavoni, S., Foujols, M.-A., Gardoll, S.,
Gastineau, G., Ghattas, J., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guenet, B., Guez E., L.,
Guilyardi, E., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A.,
Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N.,
Levavasseur, G., Lévy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S.,
Madec, G., Madeleine, J.-B., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul,
L., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P.,
Planton, Y., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rochetin, N., Rousset, C., Sepulchre, P.,
Sima, A., Swingedouw, D., Thiéblemont, R., Traore, A. K., Vancoppenolle,
M., Vial, J., Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Presentation and
Evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Climate Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy.,
12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010,
2020.
Bourgeois, T., Goris, N., Schwinger, J., and Tjiputra, J. F.: Stratification
constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between
30∘ S and 55∘ S, Nat. Commun., 13, 340,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5, 2022.
Brient, F.: Reducing Uncertainties in Climate Projections with Emergent
Constraints: Concepts, Examples and Prospects, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 37, 1–15,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-9140-8, 2020.
Broecker, W. S. and Peng, T.-H.: Gas exchange rates between air and sea,
Tellus, 26, 21–35, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1974.tb01948.x, 1974.
Bronselaer, B., Winton, M., Russell, J., Sabine, C. L., and Khatiwala, S.:
Agreement of CMIP5 Simulated and Observed Ocean Anthropogenic CO2
Uptake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 212–298,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074435, 2017.
Brown, P. J., McDonagh, E. L., Sanders, R., Watson, A. J., Wanninkhof, R.,
King, B. A., Smeed, D. A., Baringer, M. O., Meinen, C. S., Schuster, U.,
Yool, A., and Messias, M.-J.: Circulation-driven variability of Atlantic
anthropogenic carbon transports and uptake, Nat. Geosci., 14, 571–577,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00774-5, 2021.
Buckley, M. W. and Marshall, J.: Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of
the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review, Rev. Geophys.,
54, 5–63, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000493, 2016.
Bullister, J. L.: Atmospheric Histories (1765–2015) for CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, CCl4, SF6 and N2O (NCEI Accession 0164584), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/otg.CFC_ATM_Hist_2015, 2017.
Bushinsky, S. M., Landschützer, P., Rödenbeck, C., Gray, A. R.,
Baker, D., Mazloff, M. R., Resplandy, L., Johnson, K. S., and Sarmiento, J.
L.: Reassessing Southern Ocean Air-Sea CO2 Flux Estimates With the
Addition of Biogeochemical Float Observations, Global Biogeochem. Cy.,
33, 1370–1388, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GB006176, 2019.
Caldeira, K. and Duffy, P. B.: The Role of the Southern Ocean in Uptake and
Storage of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide, Science, 287, 620–622,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5453.620, 2000.
Caldwell, P. M., Bretherton, C. S., Zelinka, M. D., Klein, S. A., Santer, B.
D., and Sanderson, B. M.: Statistical significance of climate sensitivity
predictors obtained by data mining, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1803–1808,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059205, 2014.
Canadell, J. G., Monteiro, P. M. S., Costa, M. H., Cotrim da Cunha, L., Cox, P. M., Eliseev, A. V., Henson, S., Ishii, M., Jaccard, S.,
Koven, C., Lohila, A., Patra, P. K., Piao, S., Rogelj, J., Syampungani, S., Zaehle, S., and Zickfeld, K.: Global Carbon and
other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte,
V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K.,
Lonnoy,E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 673–816, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.007, 2021.
Chau, T. T. T., Gehlen, M., and Chevallier, F.: A seamless ensemble-based
reconstruction of surface ocean pCO2 and air–sea CO2 fluxes over
the global coastal and open oceans, Biogeosciences, 19, 1087–1109,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1087-2022, 2022.
Christian, J. R., Denman, K. L., Hayashida, H., Holdsworth, A. M., Lee, W. G., Riche, O. G. J., Shao, A. E., Steiner, N., and Swart, N. C.: Ocean biogeochemistry in the Canadian Earth System Model version 5.0.3: CanESM5 and CanESM5-CanOE, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4393–4424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4393-2022, 2022.
Chylek, P., Li, J., Dubey, M. K., Wang, M., and Lesins, G.: Observed and model simulated 20th century Arctic temperature variability: Canadian Earth System Model CanESM2, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 22893–22907, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-11-22893-2011, 2011.
Claustre, H., Johnson, K. S., and Takeshita, Y.: Observing the Global Ocean
with Biogeochemical-Argo, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 12, 23–48,
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010419-010956, 2020.
Clement, D. and Gruber, N.: The eMLR(C*) Method to Determine Decadal Changes
in the Global Ocean Storage of Anthropogenic CO2, Global Biogeochem.
Cy., 32, 654–679, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005819,
2018.
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier,
A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A.,
Hannay, C., Holland, M. M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M.,
Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R.,
Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A. S., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S.,
van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C.,
Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E., Kinnison, D., Kushner, P. J.,
Larson, V. E., Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E.,
Polvani, L., Rasch, P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The Community Earth System
Model Version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001916,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020.
DeVries, T.: The oceanic anthropogenic CO2 sink: Storage, air-sea
fluxes, and transports over the industrial era, Global Biogeochem. Cy.,
28, 631–647, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GB004739, 2014.
Dickson, A. G., Sabine, C. L., and Christian, J. R. (Eds.):
Guide to Best Practices for Ocean CO2 Measurements,
PICES Special Publication 3, 191 pp., North Pacific Marine Science Organization
Sidney, British Columbia, https://doi.org/10.25607/OBP-1342, 2007.
Doney, S. C., Busch, D. S., Cooley, S. R., and Kroeker, K. J.: The Impacts
of Ocean Acidification on Marine Ecosystems and Reliant Human Communities,
Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 45, 83–112,
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012320-083019, 2020.
Döscher, R., Acosta, M., Alessandri, A., Anthoni, P., Arsouze, T., Bergman, T., Bernardello, R., Boussetta, S., Caron, L.-P., Carver, G., Castrillo, M., Catalano, F., Cvijanovic, I., Davini, P., Dekker, E., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Docquier, D., Echevarria, P., Fladrich, U., Fuentes-Franco, R., Gröger, M., v. Hardenberg, J., Hieronymus, J., Karami, M. P., Keskinen, J.-P., Koenigk, T., Makkonen, R., Massonnet, F., Ménégoz, M., Miller, P. A., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Nieradzik, L., van Noije, T., Nolan, P., O'Donnell, D., Ollinaho, P., van den Oord, G., Ortega, P., Prims, O. T., Ramos, A., Reerink, T., Rousset, C., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Le Sager, P., Schmith, T., Schrödner, R., Serva, F., Sicardi, V., Sloth Madsen, M., Smith, B., Tian, T., Tourigny, E., Uotila, P., Vancoppenolle, M., Wang, S., Wårlind, D., Willén, U., Wyser, K., Yang, S., Yepes-Arbós, X., and Zhang, Q.: The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022.
Dufour, C. O., Griffies, S. M., de Souza, G. F., Frenger, I., Morrison, A.
K., Palter, J. B., Sarmiento, J. L., Galbraith, E. D., Dunne, J. P.,
Anderson, W. G., and Slater, R. D.: Role of Mesoscale Eddies in
Cross-Frontal Transport of Heat and Biogeochemical Tracers in the Southern
Ocean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 45, 3057–3081,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-14-0240.1, 2015.
Dunne, J. P., John, J. G., Adcroft, A. J., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R. W.,
Shevliakova, E., Stouffer, R. J., Cooke, W., Dunne, K. A., Harrison, M. J.,
Krasting, J. P., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Phillipps, P. J.,
Sentman, L. T., Samuels, B. L., Spelman, M. J., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A.
T., and Zadeh, N.: GFDL's ESM2 Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System
Models. Part I: Physical Formulation and Baseline Simulation
Characteristics, J. Climate, 25, 6646–6665,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00560.1, 2012.
Dunne, J. P., Horowitz, L. W., Adcroft, A. J., Ginoux, P., Held, I. M.,
John, J. G., Krasting, J. P., Malyshev, S., Naik, V., Paulot, F.,
Shevliakova, E., Stock, C. A., Zadeh, N., Balaji, V., Blanton, C., Dunne, K.
A., Dupuis, C., Durachta, J., Dussin, R., Gauthier, P. P. G., Griffies, S.
M., Guo, H., Hallberg, R. W., Harrison, M., He, J., Hurlin, W., McHugh, C.,
Menzel, R., Milly, P. C. D., Nikonov, S., Paynter, D. J., Ploshay, J.,
Radhakrishnan, A., Rand, K., Reichl, B. G., Robinson, T., Schwarzkopf, D.
M., Sentman, L. T., Underwood, S., Vahlenkamp, H., Winton, M., Wittenberg,
A. T., Wyman, B., Zeng, Y., and Zhao, M.: The GFDL Earth System Model
Version 4.1 (GFDL-ESM 4.1): Overall Coupled Model Description and Simulation
Characteristics, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002015,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002015, 2020.
Egleston, E. S., Sabine, C. L., and Morel, F. M. M.: Revelle revisited:
Buffer factors that quantify the response of ocean chemistry to changes in
DIC and alkalinity, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, GB1002,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003407, 2010.
Eyring, V., Cox, P. M., Flato, G. M., Gleckler, P. J., Abramowitz, G.,
Caldwell, P., Collins, W. D., Gier, B. K., Hall, A. D., Hoffman, F. M.,
Hurtt, G. C., Jahn, A., Jones, C. D., Klein, S. A., Krasting, J. P.,
Kwiatkowski, L., Lorenz, R., Maloney, E., Meehl, G. A., Pendergrass, A. G.,
Pincus, R., Ruane, A. C., Russell, J. L., Sanderson, B. M., Santer, B. D.,
Sherwood, S. C., Simpson, I. R., Stouffer, R. J., and Williamson, M. S.:
Taking climate model evaluation to the next level, Nat. Clim. Change, 9,
102–110, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y, 2019.
Fabry, V. J., Seibel, B. A., Feely, R. A., and Orr, J. C.: Impacts of ocean
acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes, ICES J. Mar. Sci.,
65, 414–432, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsn048, 2008.
Falkowski, P. G., Barber, R. T., and Smetacek, V.: Biogeochemical Controls
and Feedbacks on Ocean Primary Production, Science, 281, 200–206,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.281.5374.200, 1998.
Frölicher, T. L. and Joos, F.: Reversible and irreversible impacts of
greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global
coupled carbon cycle-climate model, Clim. Dynam., 35, 1439–1459,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0727-0, 2010.
Frölicher, T. L., Sarmiento, J. L., Paynter, D. J., Dunne, J. P.,
Krasting, J. P., and Winton, M.: Dominance of the Southern Ocean in
Anthropogenic Carbon and Heat Uptake in CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 28,
862–886, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00117.1, 2015.
Gattuso, J.-P. and Hansson, L. (Eds.): Ocean acidification, Oxford University
Press, ISBN 9780199591091, 2011.
Gent, P. R., Danabasoglu, G., Donner, L. J., Holland, M. M., Hunke, E. C.,
Jayne, S. R., Lawrence, D. M., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P. J., Vertenstein, M.,
Worley, P. H., Yang, Z.-L., and Zhang, M.: The Community Climate System
Model Version 4, J. Climate, 24, 4973–4991,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1, 2011.
Gerber, M., Joos, F., Vázquez-Rodríguez, M., Touratier, F., and
Goyet, C.: Regional air-sea fluxes of anthropogenic carbon inferred with an
Ensemble Kalman Filter, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB1013,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003247, 2009.
Giorgetta, M. A., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C. H., Legutke, S., Bader, J.,
Böttinger, M., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Glushak,
K., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H.-D., Ilyina, T., Kinne, S., Kornblueh,
L., Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Mueller, W., Notz, D.,
Pithan, F., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Roeckner, E., Schmidt, H.,
Schnur, R., Segschneider, J., Six, K. D., Stockhause, M., Timmreck, C.,
Wegner, J., Widmann, H., Wieners, K.-H., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J., and
Stevens, B.: Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM
simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, J. Adv.
Model. Earth Sy., 5, 572–597,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20038, 2013.
Gloege, L., McKinley, G. A., Landschützer, P., Fay, A. R.,
Frölicher, T. L., Fyfe, J. C., Ilyina, T., Jones, S., Lovenduski, N. S.,
Rodgers, K. B., Schlunegger, S., and Takano, Y.: Quantifying Errors in
Observationally Based Estimates of Ocean Carbon Sink Variability, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 35, e2020GB006788,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006788, 2021.
Gloege, L., Yan, M., Zheng, T., and McKinley, G. A.: Improved Quantification
of Ocean Carbon Uptake by Using Machine Learning to Merge Global Models and
pCO2 Data, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 14, e2021MS002620,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002620, 2022.
Goodwin, P., Williams, R. G., Ridgwell, A., and Follows, M. J.: Climate
sensitivity to the carbon cycle modulated by past and future changes in
ocean chemistry, Nat. Geosci., 2, 145–150, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo416,
2009.
Goris, N., Tjiputra, J. F., Olsen, A., Schwinger, J., Lauvset, S. K., and
Jeansson, E.: Constraining Projection-Based Estimates of the Future North
Atlantic Carbon Uptake, J. Climate, 31, 3959–3978,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0564.1, 2018.
Goris, N., Johannsen, K., and Tjiputra, J.: Gulf Stream and interior western boundary volume transport as key regions to constrain the future North Atlantic Carbon Uptake, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-152, in review, 2022.
Gregor, L. and Gruber, N.: OceanSODA-ETHZ: a global gridded data set of the surface ocean carbonate system for seasonal to decadal studies of ocean acidification, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 777–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-777-2021, 2021.
Gregor, L., Lebehot, A. D., Kok, S., and Scheel Monteiro, P. M.: A comparative assessment of the uncertainties of global surface ocean CO2 estimates using a machine-learning ensemble (CSIR-ML6 version 2019a) – have we hit the wall?, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5113–5136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5113-2019, 2019.
Griffies, S. M., Winton, M., Anderson, W. G., Benson, R., Delworth, T. L.,
Dufour, C. O., Dunne, J. P., Goddard, P., Morrison, A. K., Rosati, A.,
Wittenberg, A. T., Yin, J., and Zhang, R.: Impacts on Ocean Heat from
Transient Mesoscale Eddies in a Hierarchy of Climate Models, J. Climate, 28,
952–977, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00353.1, 2015.
Gruber, N., Sarmiento, J. L., and Stocker, T. F.: An improved method for
detecting anthropogenic CO2 in the oceans, Global Biogeochem. Cy.,
10, 809–837, https://doi.org/10.1029/96GB01608, 1996.
Gruber, N., Gloor, M., Mikaloff Fletcher, S. E., Doney, S. C., Dutkiewicz,
S., Follows, M. J., Gerber, M., Jacobson, A. R., Joos, F., Lindsay, K.,
Menemenlis, D., Mouchet, A., Müller, S. A., Sarmiento, J. L., and
Takahashi, T.: Oceanic sources, sinks, and transport of atmospheric
CO2, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB1005,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003349, 2009.
Gruber, N., Hauri, C., Lachkar, Z., Loher, D., Frölicher, T. L., and
Plattner, G.-K.: Rapid Progression of Ocean Acidification in the California
Current System, Science, 337, 220–223,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1216773, 2012.
Gruber, N., Clement, D., Carter, B. R., Feely, R. A., van Heuven, S.,
Hoppema, M., Ishii, M., Key, R. M., Kozyr, A., Lauvset, S. K., Lo Monaco,
C., Mathis, J. T., Murata, A., Olsen, A., Perez, F. F., Sabine, C. L.,
Tanhua, T., and Rik, W.: The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2 from
1994 to 2007, Science, 363, 1193–1199,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau5153, 2019a.
Gruber, N., Landschützer, P., and Lovenduski, N. S.: The variable
southern ocean carbon sink, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 11, 159–186,
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063407, 2019b.
Gutjahr, O., Putrasahan, D., Lohmann, K., Jungclaus, J. H., von Storch, J.-S., Brüggemann, N., Haak, H., and Stössel, A.: Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) for the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3241–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3241-2019, 2019.
Hajima, T., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Tatebe, H., Noguchi, M. A., Abe, M., Ohgaito, R., Ito, A., Yamazaki, D., Okajima, H., Ito, A., Takata, K., Ogochi, K., Watanabe, S., and Kawamiya, M.: Development of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and the evaluation of biogeochemical processes and feedbacks, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2197–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2197-2020, 2020.
Hall, A., Cox, P., Huntingford, C., and Klein, S.: Progressing emergent
constraints on future climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 269–278,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6, 2019.
Hall, T. M., Haine, T. W. N., and Waugh, D. W.: Inferring the concentration
of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean from tracers, Global Biogeochem.
Cy., 16, 78-1–78-15,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GB001835, 2002.
Hauck, J., Zeising, M., Le Quéré, C., Gruber, N., Bakker, D. C. E.,
Bopp, L., Chau, T. T. T., Gürses, Ö., Ilyina, T., Landschützer,
P., Lenton, A., Resplandy, L., Rödenbeck, C., Schwinger, J., and
Séférian, R.: Consistency and Challenges in the Ocean Carbon Sink
Estimate for the Global Carbon Budget, Front. Mar. Sci., 7, 571720,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.571720, 2020.
Hauri, C., Pagès, R., McDonnell, A. M. P., Stuecker, M. F., Danielson,
S. L., Hedstrom, K., Irving, B., Schultz, C., and Doney, S. C.: Modulation
of ocean acidification by decadal climate variability in the Gulf of Alaska,
Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 191, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00254-z,
2021.
Hausfather, Z., Marvel, K., Schmidt, G. A., Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., and
Zelinka, M.: Climate simulations: recognize the “hot model” problem, Nature,
605, 26–29, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-01192-2, 2022.
Held, I. M., Guo, H., Adcroft, A., Dunne, J. P., Horowitz, L. W., Krasting,
J., Shevliakova, E., Winton, M., Zhao, M., Bushuk, M., Wittenberg, A. T.,
Wyman, B., Xiang, B., Zhang, R., Anderson, W., Balaji, V., Donner, L.,
Dunne, K., Durachta, J., Gauthier, P. P. G., Ginoux, P., Golaz, J.-C.,
Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R., Harris, L., Harrison, M., Hurlin, W., John,
J., Lin, P., Lin, S.-J., Malyshev, S., Menzel, R., Milly, P. C. D., Ming,
Y., Naik, V., Paynter, D., Paulot, F., Ramaswamy, V., Reichl, B., Robinson,
T., Rosati, A., Seman, C., Silvers, L. G., Underwood, S., and Zadeh, N.:
Structure and Performance of GFDL's CM4.0 Climate Model, J. Adv. Model.
Earth Sy., 11, 3691–3727,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001829, 2019.
Hess, D.: Constraining the anthropogenic carbon uptake in the North Atlantic
over the 21st century, University of Bern, 1–45, https://ube.swisscovery.slsp.ch/discovery/fulldisplay?vid=41SLSP_UBE:UBE&docid=alma99117299352705511&lang=en&context=L, last access: 1 June 2022.
Iida, Y., Takatani, Y., Kojima, A., and Ishii, M.: Global trends of ocean
CO2 sink and ocean acidification: an observation-based reconstruction
of surface ocean inorganic carbon variables, J. Oceanogr., 77, 323–358,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-020-00571-5, 2021.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by:
Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C.,
Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M.,
Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield,
T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001, 2021.
IPCC: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Shukla, P. R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., and Malley, J., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157926, 2022.
Jacobson, A. R., Mikaloff Fletcher, S. E., Gruber, N., Sarmiento, J. L., and
Gloor, M.: A joint atmosphere-ocean inversion for surface fluxes of carbon
dioxide: 1. Methods and global-scale fluxes, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 21, GB1019,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GB002556, 2007.
Joos, F., Plattner, G.-K., Stocker, T. F., Marchal, O., and Schmittner, A.:
Global Warming and Marine Carbon Cycle Feedbacks on Future Atmospheric
CO2, Science, 284, 464–467,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.284.5413.464, 1999.
Katavouta, A., Williams, R. G., Goodwin, P., and Roussenov, V.: Reconciling
Atmospheric and Oceanic Views of the Transient Climate Response to
Emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 6205–6214,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077849, 2018.
Kawaguchi, S., Ishida, A., King, R., Raymond, B., Waller, N., Constable, A.,
Nicol, S., Wakita, M., and Ishimatsu, A.: Risk maps for Antarctic krill
under projected Southern Ocean acidification, Nat. Clim. Change, 3,
843–847, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1937, 2013.
Khatiwala, S., Tanhua, T., Mikaloff Fletcher, S., Gerber, M., Doney, S. C., Graven, H. D., Gruber, N., McKinley, G. A., Murata, A., Ríos, A. F., and Sabine, C. L.: Global ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon, Biogeosciences, 10, 2169–2191, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2169-2013, 2013.
Kroeker, K. J., Kordas, R. L., Crim, R. N., and Singh, G. G.: Meta-analysis
reveals negative yet variable effects of ocean acidification on marine
organisms, Ecol. Lett., 13, 1419–1434,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01518.x, 2010.
Kroeker, K. J., Kordas, R. L., Crim, R., Hendriks, I. E., Ramajo, L., Singh,
G. S., Duarte, C. M., and Gattuso, J.-P.: Impacts of ocean acidification on
marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming,
Glob. Change Biol., 19, 1884–1896,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12179, 2013.
Kwiatkowski, L., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Ciais, P., Cox, P. M.,
Laufkötter, C., Li, Y., and Séférian, R.: Emergent constraints
on projections of declining primary production in the tropical oceans, Nat.
Clim. Change, 7, 355–358, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3265, 2017.
Kwiatkowski, L., Torres, O., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Chamberlain, M., Christian, J. R., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., Lenton, A., Li, H., Lovenduski, N. S., Orr, J. C., Palmieri, J., Santana-Falcón, Y., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Stock, C. A., Tagliabue, A., Takano, Y., Tjiputra, J., Toyama, K., Tsujino, H., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Yool, A., and Ziehn, T.: Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections, Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020.
Lachkar, Z., Orr, J. C., Dutay, J.-C., and Delecluse, P.: Effects of mesoscale eddies on global ocean distributions of CFC-11, CO2, and Δ14C, Ocean Sci., 3, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-3-461-2007, 2007.
Lachkar, Z., Orr, J. C., Dutay, J.-C., and Delecluse, P.: On the role of
mesoscale eddies in the ventilation of Antarctic intermediate water, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 56, 909–925,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2009.01.013, 2009.
Lacroix, F., Ilyina, T., and Hartmann, J.: Oceanic CO2 outgassing and biological production hotspots induced by pre-industrial river loads of nutrients and carbon in a global modeling approach, Biogeosciences, 17, 55–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-55-2020, 2020.
Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., and Bakker, D. C. E.: Decadal variations
and trends of the global ocean carbon sink, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 30,
1396–1417, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005359, 2016.
Langdon, C. and Atkinson, M. J.: Effect of elevated pCO2 on
photosynthesis and calcification of corals and interactions with seasonal
change in temperature/irradiance and nutrient enrichment, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean, 110, C09S07, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JC002576, 2005.
Lauvset, S. K., Key, R. M., Olsen, A., van Heuven, S., Velo, A., Lin, X., Schirnick, C., Kozyr, A., Tanhua, T., Hoppema, M., Jutterström, S., Steinfeldt, R., Jeansson, E., Ishii, M., Perez, F. F., Suzuki, T., and Watelet, S.: A new global interior ocean mapped climatology: the 1∘ × 1∘ GLODAP version 2, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 325–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-325-2016, 2016.
Lauvset, S. K., Lange, N., Tanhua, T., Bittig, H. C., Olsen, A., Kozyr, A., Álvarez, M., Becker, S., Brown, P. J., Carter, B. R., Cotrim da Cunha, L., Feely, R. A., van Heuven, S., Hoppema, M., Ishii, M., Jeansson, E., Jutterström, S., Jones, S. D., Karlsen, M. K., Lo Monaco, C., Michaelis, P., Murata, A., Pérez, F. F., Pfeil, B., Schirnick, C., Steinfeldt, R., Suzuki, T., Tilbrook, B., Velo, A., Wanninkhof, R., Woosley, R. J., and Key, R. M.: An updated version of the global interior ocean biogeochemical data product, GLODAPv2.2021, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5565–5589, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5565-2021, 2021.
Lebrato, M., Andersson, A. J., Ries, J. B., Aronson, R. B., Lamare, M. D.,
Koeve, W., Oschlies, A., Iglesias-Rodriguez, M. D., Thatje, S., Amsler, M.,
Vos, S. C., Jones, D. O. B., Ruhl, H. A., Gates, A. R., and McClintock, J.
B.: Benthic marine calcifiers coexist with CaCO3-undersaturated
seawater worldwide, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 30, 1038–1053,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005260, 2016.
Lindsay, K., Bonan, G. B., Doney, S. C., Hoffman, F. M., Lawrence, D. M.,
Long, M. C., Mahowald, N. M., Keith Moore, J., Randerson, J. T., and
Thornton, P. E.: Preindustrial-Control and Twentieth-Century Carbon Cycle
Experiments with the Earth System Model CESM1(BGC), J. Climate, 27,
8981–9005, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00565.1, 2014.
Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V., Baranova, O. K., Boyer,
T. P., Zweng, M. M., Garcia, H. E., Reagan, J. R., Seidov, D., Weathers, K., Paver, C. R., and Smolyar, I.: World
Ocean Atlas 2018, Volume 1: Temperature, Tech. Rep., A. Mishonov Technical Ed.; NOAA Atlas NESDIS 81,
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/world-ocean-atlas-2018/ (last
access: 1 June 2022), 2018.
Lovato, T., Peano, D., Butenschön, M., Materia, S., Iovino, D.,
Scoccimarro, E., Fogli, P. G., Cherchi, A., Bellucci, A., Gualdi, S.,
Masina, S., and Navarra, A.: CMIP6 Simulations With the CMCC Earth System
Model (CMCC-ESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 14, e2021MS002814,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002814, 2022.
Marshall, J. and Speer, K.: Closure of the meridional overturning
circulation through Southern Ocean upwelling, Nat. Geosci., 5, 171–180,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1391, 2012.
Matear, R. J., Wong, C. S., and Xie, L.: Can CFCs be used to determine
anthropogenic CO2?, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 17, 1013,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GB001415, 2003.
Matsumoto, K., Sarmiento, J. L., Key, R. M., Aumont, O., Bullister, J. L.,
Caldeira, K., Campin, J.-M., Doney, S. C., Drange, H., Dutay, J.-C.,
Follows, M., Gao, Y., Gnanadesikan, A., Gruber, N., Ishida, A., Joos, F.,
Lindsay, K., Maier-Reimer, E., Marshall, J. C., Matear, R. J., Monfray, P.,
Mouchet, A., Najjar, R., Plattner, G.-K., Schlitzer, R., Slater, R., Swathi,
P. S., Totterdell, I. J., Weirig, M.-F., Yamanaka, Y., Yool, A., and Orr, J.
C.: Evaluation of ocean carbon cycle models with data-based metrics,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L07303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018970, 2004.
Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R.,
Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S.,
Fläschner, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D. S., Haak, H.,
Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T.,
Jimenéz-de-la-Cuesta, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S.,
Kracher, D., Kinne, S., Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke,
J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B.,
Müller, W. A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nam, C. C. W., Notz, D., Nyawira,
S.-S., Paulsen, H., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J.,
Popp, M., Raddatz, T. J., Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Rohrschneider,
T., Schemann, V., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K. D.,
Stein, L., Stemmler, I., Stevens, B., von Storch, J.-S., Tian, F., Voigt,
A., Vrese, P., Wieners, K.-H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Winkler, A., and Roeckner,
E.: Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2)
and Its Response to Increasing CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11,
998–1038, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001400, 2019.
McCarthy, G. D., Brown, P. J., Flagg, C. N., Goni, G., Houpert, L., Hughes,
C. W., Hummels, R., Inall, M., Jochumsen, K., Larsen, K. M. H., Lherminier,
P., Meinen, C. S., Moat, B. I., Rayner, D., Rhein, M., Roessler, A., Schmid,
C., and Smeed, D. A.: Sustainable Observations of the AMOC: Methodology and
Technology, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000654, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000654, 2020.
McKinley, G. A., Fay, A. R., Eddebbar, Y. A., Gloege, L., and Lovenduski, N.
S.: External Forcing Explains Recent Decadal Variability of the Ocean Carbon
Sink, AGU Adv., 1, e2019AV000149,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019AV000149, 2020.
McNeil, B. I. and Matear, R. J.: The non-steady state oceanic CO2 signal: its importance, magnitude and a novel way to detect it, Biogeosciences, 10, 2219–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2219-2013, 2013.
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E.,
Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J.
G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N.,
Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M.,
Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., and Wang, R. H. J.: The shared
socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their
extensions to 2500, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020.
Middelburg, J. J., Soetaert, K., and Hagens, M.: Ocean Alkalinity, Buffering
and Biogeochemical Processes, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000681,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000681, 2020.
Mikaloff Fletcher, S. E., Gruber, N., Jacobson, A. R., Doney, S. C.,
Dutkiewicz, S., Gerber, M., Follows, M., Joos, F., Lindsay, K., Menemenlis,
D., Mouchet, A., Müller, S. A., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Inverse estimates
of anthropogenic CO2 uptake, transport, and storage by the ocean,
Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GB002530, 2006.
Morrison, A. K., Frölicher, T. L., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Upwelling in
the Southern Ocean, Phys. Today, 68, 27–32,
https://doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.2654, 2015.
NOAA/GML: Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, NOAA/GML [data set], https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html, last access: 1 June 2022.
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein,
P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl,
G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model
Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9,
3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016.
Orr, J. C. (Ed.): Global Ocean Storage of Anthropogenic Carbon, Inst. Pierre Simon
Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette, France, 116 pp., http://ocmip5.ipsl.jussieu.fr/OCMIP/reports/GOSAC_finalreport_lores.pdf (last access: 1 June 2022), 2002.
Orr, J. C. and Epitalon, J.-M.: Improved routines to model the ocean carbonate system: mocsy 2.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 485–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-485-2015, 2015 (software code available at: https://github.com/jamesorr/mocsy, last access: 1 June 2022).
Orr, J. C., Fabry, V. J., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Feely, R. A.,
Gnanadesikan, A., Gruber, N., Ishida, A., Joos, F., Key, R. M., Lindsay, K.,
Maier-Reimer, E., Matear, R., Monfray, P., Mouchet, A., Najjar, R. G.,
Plattner, G.-K., Rodgers, K. B., Sabine, C. L., Sarmiento, J. L., Schlitzer,
R., Slater, R. D., Totterdell, I. J., Weirig, M.-F., Yamanaka, Y., and Yool,
A.: Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its
impact on calcifying organisms, Nature, 437, 681–686,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04095, 2005.
Orr, J. C., Najjar, R. G., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Bullister, J. L., Danabasoglu, G., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Dutay, J.-C., Graven, H., Griffies, S. M., John, J. G., Joos, F., Levin, I., Lindsay, K., Matear, R. J., McKinley, G. A., Mouchet, A., Oschlies, A., Romanou, A., Schlitzer, R., Tagliabue, A., Tanhua, T., and Yool, A.: Biogeochemical protocols and diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2169–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, 2017.
Pérez, F. F., Mercier, H., Vázquez-Rodríguez, M., Lherminier,
P., Velo, A., Pardo, P. C., Rosón, G., and Ríos, A. F.: Atlantic
Ocean CO2 uptake reduced by weakening of the meridional overturning
circulation, Nat. Geosci., 6, 146–152, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1680,
2013.
Regnier, P., Resplandy, L., Najjar, R. G., and Ciais, P.: The land-to-ocean
loops of the global carbon cycle, Nature, 603, 401–410,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04339-9, 2022.
Resplandy, L., Keeling, R. F., Rödenbeck, C., Stephens, B. B.,
Khatiwala, S., Rodgers, K. B., Long, M. C., Bopp, L., and Tans, P. P.:
Revision of global carbon fluxes based on a reassessment of oceanic and
riverine carbon transport, Nat. Geosci., 11, 504–509,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0151-3, 2018.
Revelle, R. and Suess, H. E.: Carbon Dioxide Exchange Between Atmosphere and
Ocean and the Question of an Increase of Atmospheric CO2 during the Past
Decades, Tellus, 9, 18–27, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1957.tb01849.x, 1957.
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C.,
Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W.,
Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., KC, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao,
S., Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Da
Silva, L. A., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D.,
Masui, T., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G.,
Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C., Kainuma, M.,
Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A.,
and Tavoni, M.: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land
use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environ.
Chang., 42, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, 2017.
Ridge, S. M. and McKinley, G. A.: Advective Controls on the North Atlantic
Anthropogenic Carbon Sink, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 34, e2019GB006457,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GB006457, 2020.
Ries, J. B., Cohen, A. L., and McCorkle, D. C.: Marine calcifiers exhibit
mixed responses to CO2-induced ocean acidification, Geology, 37, 1131–1134,
https://doi.org/10.1130/G30210A.1, 2009.
Rödenbeck, C., Keeling, R. F., Bakker, D. C. E., Metzl, N., Olsen, A., Sabine, C., and Heimann, M.: Global surface-ocean pCO2 and sea–air CO2 flux variability from an observation-driven ocean mixed-layer scheme, Ocean Sci., 9, 193–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-193-2013, 2013.
Rödenbeck, C., Bakker, D. C. E., Metzl, N., Olsen, A., Sabine, C., Cassar, N., Reum, F., Keeling, R. F., and Heimann, M.: Interannual sea–air CO2 flux variability from an observation-driven ocean mixed-layer scheme, Biogeosciences, 11, 4599–4613, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4599-2014, 2014.
Rödenbeck, C., DeVries, T., Hauck, J., Le Quéré, C., and Keeling, R. F.: Data-based estimates of interannual sea–air CO2 flux variations 1957–2020 and their relation to environmental drivers, Biogeosciences, 19, 2627–2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2627-2022, 2022.
Rodgers, K. B., Schlunegger, S., Slater, R. D., Ishii, M., Frölicher, T.
L., Toyama, K., Plancherel, Y., Aumont, O., and Fassbender, A. J.:
Reemergence of Anthropogenic Carbon Into the Ocean's Mixed Layer Strongly
Amplifies Transient Climate Sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47,
e2020GL089275, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089275, 2020.
Sabine, C. L., Feely, R. A., Gruber, N., Key, R. M., Lee, K., Bullister, J.
L., Wanninkhof, R., Wong, C. S., Wallace, D. W. R., Tilbrook, B., Millero,
F. J., Peng, T.-H., Kozyr, A., Ono, T., and Rios, A. F.: The Oceanic Sink
for Anthropogenic CO2, Science, 305, 367–371,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1097403, 2004.
Sanderson, B. M., Pendergrass, A. G., Koven, C. D., Brient, F., Booth, B. B. B., Fisher, R. A., and Knutti, R.: The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 899–918, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, 2021.
Sarmiento, J. L. and Sundquist, E. T.: Revised budget for the oceanic uptake
of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, Nature, 356, 589–593,
https://doi.org/10.1038/356589a0, 1992.
Sarmiento, J. L., Orr, J. C., and Siegenthaler, U.: A perturbation
simulation of CO2 uptake in an ocean general circulation model, J.
Geophys. Res.-Ocean, 97, 3621–3645,
https://doi.org/10.1029/91JC02849, 1992.
Sarmiento, J. L., Le Quéré, C., and Pacala, S. W.: Limiting future
atmospheric carbon dioxide, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 9, 121–137,
https://doi.org/10.1029/94GB01779, 1995.
Sarmiento, J. L., Hughes, T. M. C., Stouffer, R. J., and Manabe, S.:
Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate
warming, Nature, 393, 245–249, https://doi.org/10.1038/30455, 1998.
Séférian, R., Gehlen, M., Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Marti, O., Dunne, J. P., Christian, J. R., Doney, S. C., Ilyina, T., Lindsay, K., Halloran, P. R., Heinze, C., Segschneider, J., Tjiputra, J., Aumont, O., and Romanou, A.: Inconsistent strategies to spin up models in CMIP5: implications for ocean biogeochemical model performance assessment, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1827–1851, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, 2016.
Séférian, R., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Saint-Martin, D., Voldoire, A.,
Colin, J., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Berthet, S., Chevallier, M.,
Sénési, S., Franchisteguy, L., Vial, J., Mallet, M., Joetzjer, E.,
Geoffroy, O., Guérémy, J.-F., Moine, M.-P., Msadek, R., Ribes, A.,
Rocher, M., Roehrig, R., Salas-y-Mélia, D., Sanchez, E., Terray, L.,
Valcke, S., Waldman, R., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Deshayes, J., Éthé,
C., and Madec, G.: Evaluation of CNRM Earth System Model, CNRM-ESM2-1: Role
of Earth System Processes in Present-Day and Future Climate, J. Adv. Model.
Earth Sy., 11, 4182–4227,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001791, 2019.
Séférian, R., Berthet, S., Yool, A., Palmiéri, J., Bopp, L.,
Tagliabue, A., Kwiatkowski, L., Aumont, O., Christian, J., Dunne, J.,
Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., Li, H., Long, M. C., Luo, J. Y.,
Nakano, H., Romanou, A., Schwinger, J., Stock, C., Santana-Falcón, Y.,
Takano, Y., Tjiputra, J., Tsujino, H., Watanabe, M., Wu, T., Wu, F., and
Yamamoto, A.: Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry
Between CMIP5 and CMIP6, Curr. Clim. Chang. Reports, 6, 95–119,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0, 2020.
Sellar, A. A., Walton, J., Jones, C. G., Wood, R., Abraham, N. L.,
Andrejczuk, M., Andrews, M. B., Andrews, T., Archibald, A. T., de Mora, L.,
Dyson, H., Elkington, M., Ellis, R., Florek, P., Good, P., Gohar, L.,
Haddad, S., Hardiman, S. C., Hogan, E., Iwi, A., Jones, C. D., Johnson, B.,
Kelley, D. I., Kettleborough, J., Knight, J. R., Köhler, M. O.,
Kuhlbrodt, T., Liddicoat, S., Linova-Pavlova, I., Mizielinski, M. S.,
Morgenstern, O., Mulcahy, J., Neininger, E., O'Connor, F. M., Petrie, R.,
Ridley, J., Rioual, J.-C., Roberts, M., Robertson, E., Rumbold, S., Seddon,
J., Shepherd, H., Shim, S., Stephens, A., Teixiera, J. C., Tang, Y.,
Williams, J., Wiltshire, A., and Griffiths, P. T.: Implementation of U.K.
Earth System Models for CMIP6, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12,
e2019MS001946, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001946, 2020.
Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Frölicher, T. L., Bopp, L., Cadule, P., Cocco, V., Doney, S. C., Gehlen, M., Lindsay, K., Moore, J. K., Schneider, B., and Segschneider, J.: Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis, Biogeosciences, 7, 979–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-979-2010, 2010.
Stock, C. A., Dunne, J. P., Fan, S., Ginoux, P., John, J., Krasting, J. P.,
Laufkötter, C., Paulot, F., and Zadeh, N.: Ocean Biogeochemistry in
GFDL's Earth System Model 4.1 and Its Response to Increasing Atmospheric
CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002043,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002043, 2020.
Talley, L. D.: Closure of the Global Overturning Circulation Through the
Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans: Schematics and Transports,
Oceanography, 26, 80–97, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.07, 2013.
Terhaar, J., Kwiatkowski, L., and Bopp, L.: Emergent constraint on Arctic
Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century, Nature, 582, 379–383,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2360-3, 2020a.
Terhaar, J., Tanhua, T., Stöven, T., Orr, J. C., and Bopp, L.: Evaluation of data-based estimates of anthropogenic carbon in the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, e2020JC016124, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016124, 2020b.
Terhaar, J., Torres, O., Bourgeois, T., and Kwiatkowski, L.: Arctic Ocean acidification over the 21st century co-driven by anthropogenic carbon increases and freshening in the CMIP6 model ensemble, Biogeosciences, 18, 2221–2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021, 2021a.
Terhaar, J., Frölicher, T., and Joos, F.: Southern Ocean anthropogenic
carbon sink constrained by sea surface salinity, Sci. Adv., 7, 5964–5992,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd5964, 2021b.
Tjiputra, J. F., Schwinger, J., Bentsen, M., Morée, A. L., Gao, S., Bethke, I., Heinze, C., Goris, N., Gupta, A., He, Y.-C., Olivié, D., Seland, Ø., and Schulz, M.: Ocean biogeochemistry in the Norwegian Earth System Model version 2 (NorESM2), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2393–2431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2393-2020, 2020.
Vaittinada Ayar, P., Bopp, L., Christian, J. R., Ilyina, T., Krasting, J. P., Séférian, R., Tsujino, H., Watanabe, M., Yool, A., and Tjiputra, J.: Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022.
Wang, L., Huang, J., Luo, Y., and Zhao, Z.: Narrowing the spread in CMIP5
model projections of air-sea CO2 fluxes, Sci. Rep.-UK, 6, 37548,
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37548, 2016.
Watson, A. J., Schuster, U., Shutler, J. D., Holding, T., Ashton, I. G. C.,
Landschützer, P., Woolf, D. K., and Goddijn-Murphy, L.: Revised
estimates of ocean-atmosphere CO2 flux are consistent with ocean carbon
inventory, Nat. Commun., 11, 4422,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18203-3, 2020.
Weiss, R. F.: Carbon dioxide in water and seawater: the solubility of a
non-ideal gas, Mar. Chem., 2, 203–215,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4203(74)90015-2, 1974.
Wenzel, S., Cox, P. M., Eyring, V., and Friedlingstein, P.: Emergent
constraints on climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in the CMIP5 Earth system
models, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 119, 794–807,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JG002591, 2014.
Williamson, M. S., Thackeray, C. W., Cox, P. M., Hall, A., Huntingford, C.,
and Nijsse, F. J. M. M.: Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities, Rev.
Mod. Phys., 93, 25004, https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.93.025004, 2021.
Winton, M., Griffies, S. M., Samuels, B. L., Sarmiento, J. L., and
Frölicher, T. L.: Connecting Changing Ocean Circulation with Changing
Climate, J. Climate, 26, 2268–2278,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00296.1, 2013.
Yukimoto, S., Kawai, H., Koshiro, T., Oshima, N., Yoshida, K., Urakawa, S.,
Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Tanaka, T., Hosaka, M., Yabu, S., Yoshimura, H.,
Shindo, E., Mizuta, R., Obata, A., Adachi, Y., and Ishii, M.: The
Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model Version 2.0,
MRI-ESM2.0: Description and Basic Evaluation of the Physical Component, J.
Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 97, 931–965,
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2019-051, 2019.
Zeng, J., Nojiri, Y., Landschützer, P., Telszewski, M., and Nakaoka, S.:
A Global Surface Ocean fCO2 Climatology Based on a Feed-Forward Neural
Network, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 31, 1838–1849,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-13-00137.1, 2014.
Ziehn, T., Chamberlain, M. A., Law, R. M., Lenton, A., Bodman, R. W., Dix,
M., Stevens, L., Wang, Y.-P., and Srbinovsky, J.: The Australian Earth
System Model: ACCESS-ESM1.5, J. South. Hemisph. Earth Syst. Sci., 70,
193–214, 2020.
Zweng, M. M., Reagan, J. R., Seidov, D., Boyer, T. P., Locarnini, R. A., Garcia, H. E., Mishonov, A. V., Baranova,
O. K., Weathers, K., Paver, C. R., and Smolyar, I.: World
Ocean Atlas 2018, Volume 2: Salinity, Tech. Rep., A. Mishonov Technical Ed.; NOAA Atlas NESDIS 81,
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/world-ocean-atlas-2018/ (last
access: 1 June 2022), 2018.
Co-editor-in-chief
Accurate constraining the ocean carbon sink is of utmost importance to improve our understanding of the fate of anthropogenic carbon and to better project anthropogenic carbon uptake in the coming decades. This study combines the outcomes of a suite of earth-system models with three well-documented observations (sea surface salinity in the Southern Ocean, strength of Atlantic Overturning and Revelle factor) to reduce bias and uncertainty in the global ocean carbon sink. The results suggest that the ocean carbon sink is about 10% larger than estimated before. This has implications for the global carbon budget.
Accurate constraining the ocean carbon sink is of utmost importance to improve our understanding...
Short summary
Estimates of the ocean sink of anthropogenic carbon vary across various approaches. We show that the global ocean carbon sink can be estimated by three parameters, two of which approximate the ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and one of which approximates the chemical capacity of the ocean to take up carbon. With observations of these parameters, we estimate that the global ocean carbon sink is 10 % larger than previously assumed, and we cut uncertainties in half.
Estimates of the ocean sink of anthropogenic carbon vary across various approaches. We show that...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint