Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-109-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-109-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 05 Jan 2024
| 05 Jan 2024
Geographically divergent trends in snow disappearance timing and fire ignitions across boreal North America
Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Brendan M. Rogers
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
Rebecca C. Scholten
Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Stefano Potter
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
Thomas A. J. Janssen
Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Sander Veraverbeke
Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Related authors
Jose V. Moris, Pedro Álvarez-Álvarez, Marco Conedera, Annalie Dorph, Thomas D. Hessilt, Hugh G. P. Hunt, Renata Libonati, Lucas S. Menezes, Mortimer M. Müller, Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Gianni B. Pezzatti, Nicolau Pineda, Rebecca C. Scholten, Sander Veraverbeke, B. Mike Wotton, and Davide Ascoli
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1151–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1151-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes a database on holdover times of lightning-ignited wildfires (LIWs). Holdover time is defined as the time between lightning-induced fire ignition and fire detection. The database contains 42 datasets built with data on more than 152 375 LIWs from 13 countries in five continents from 1921 to 2020. This database is the first freely-available, harmonized and ready-to-use global source of holdover time data, which may be used to investigate LIWs and model the holdover phenomenon.
Lucas R. Diaz, Clement J. F. Delcourt, Moritz Langer, Michael M. Loranty, Brendan M. Rogers, Rebecca C. Scholten, Tatiana A. Shestakova, Anna C. Talucci, Jorien E. Vonk, Sonam Wangchuk, and Sander Veraverbeke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1459–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study in eastern Siberia investigated how fires affect permafrost thaw depth in larch forests. We found that fire induces deeper thaw, yet this process was mediated by topography and vegetation. By combining field and satellite data, we estimated summer thaw depth across an entire fire scar. This research provides insights into post-fire permafrost dynamics and the use of satellite data for mapping fire-induced permafrost thaw.
Elchin E. Jafarov, Helene Genet, Velimir V. Vesselinov, Valeria Briones, Aiza Kabeer, Andrew L. Mullen, Benjamin Maglio, Tobey Carman, Ruth Rutter, Joy Clein, Chu-Chun Chang, Dogukan Teber, Trevor Smith, Joshua M. Rady, Christina Schädel, Jennifer D. Watts, Brendan M. Rogers, and Susan M. Natali
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-158, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-158, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Thawing permafrost could greatly impact global climate. Our study improves modeling of carbon cycling in Arctic ecosystems. We developed an automated method to fine-tune a model that simulates carbon and nitrogen flows, using computer-generated data. Using computer-generated data, we tested our method and found it enhances accuracy and reduces the time needed for calibration. This work helps make climate predictions more reliable in sensitive permafrost regions.
Matthew W. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle A. Burton, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Maria Lucia F. Barbosa, Esther Brambleby, Andrew J. Hartley, Anna Lombardi, Guilherme Mataveli, Joe R. McNorton, Fiona R. Spuler, Jakob B. Wessel, John T. Abatzoglou, Liana O. Anderson, Niels Andela, Sally Archibald, Dolors Armenteras, Eleanor Burke, Rachel Carmenta, Emilio Chuvieco, Hamish Clarke, Stefan H. Doerr, Paulo M. Fernandes, Louis Giglio, Douglas S. Hamilton, Stijn Hantson, Sarah Harris, Piyush Jain, Crystal A. Kolden, Tiina Kurvits, Seppe Lampe, Sarah Meier, Stacey New, Mark Parrington, Morgane M. G. Perron, Yuquan Qu, Natasha S. Ribeiro, Bambang H. Saharjo, Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Veerachai Tanpipat, Guido R. van der Werf, Sander Veraverbeke, and Gavriil Xanthopoulos
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3601–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This inaugural State of Wildfires report catalogues extreme fires of the 2023–2024 fire season. For key events, we analyse their predictability and drivers and attribute them to climate change and land use. We provide a seasonal outlook and decadal projections. Key anomalies occurred in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia, with other high-impact events catalogued worldwide. Climate change significantly increased the likelihood of extreme fires, and mitigation is required to lessen future risk.
Surendra Shrestha, Christopher A. Williams, Brendan M. Rogers, John Rogan, and Dominik Kulakowski
Biogeosciences, 21, 2207–2226, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we generated chronosequences of leaf area index (LAI) and surface albedo as a function of time since fire to demonstrate the differences in the characteristic trajectories of post-fire biophysical changes among seven forest types and 21 level III ecoregions of the western United States (US) using satellite data from different sources. We also demonstrated how climate played the dominant role in the recovery of LAI and albedo 10 and 20 years after wildfire events in the western US.
Qing Ying, Benjamin Poulter, Jennifer D. Watts, Kyle A. Arndt, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Lori Bruhwiler, Youmi Oh, Brendan M. Rogers, Susan M. Natali, Hilary Sullivan, Luke D. Schiferl, Clayton Elder, Olli Peltola, Annett Bartsch, Amanda Armstrong, Ankur R. Desai, Eugénie Euskirchen, Mathias Göckede, Bernhard Lehner, Mats B. Nilsson, Matthias Peichl, Oliver Sonnentag, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Torsten Sachs, Aram Kalhori, Masahito Ueyama, and Zhen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-84, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We present daily methane fluxes of northern wetlands at 10-km resolution during 2016–2022 (WetCH4) derived from a novel machine-learning framework with improved accuracy. We estimated an average annual CH4 emissions of 20.8 ±2.1 Tg CH4 yr-1. Emissions were intensified in 2016, 2020, and 2022, with the largest interannual variations coming from West Siberia. Continued, all-season tower observations and improved soil moisture products are needed for future improvement of CH4 upscaling.
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 Mha burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain, emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m−2. We found larger-fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned-area and combustion datasets described here can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
Michael Moubarak, Seeta Sistla, Stefano Potter, Susan M. Natali, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 1537–1557, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1537-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1537-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tundra wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity with climate change. We show using a combination of field measurements and computational modeling that tundra wildfires result in a positive feedback to climate change by emitting significant amounts of long-lived greenhouse gasses. With these effects, attention to tundra fires is necessary for mitigating climate change.
Jose V. Moris, Pedro Álvarez-Álvarez, Marco Conedera, Annalie Dorph, Thomas D. Hessilt, Hugh G. P. Hunt, Renata Libonati, Lucas S. Menezes, Mortimer M. Müller, Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Gianni B. Pezzatti, Nicolau Pineda, Rebecca C. Scholten, Sander Veraverbeke, B. Mike Wotton, and Davide Ascoli
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1151–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1151-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes a database on holdover times of lightning-ignited wildfires (LIWs). Holdover time is defined as the time between lightning-induced fire ignition and fire detection. The database contains 42 datasets built with data on more than 152 375 LIWs from 13 countries in five continents from 1921 to 2020. This database is the first freely-available, harmonized and ready-to-use global source of holdover time data, which may be used to investigate LIWs and model the holdover phenomenon.
Dave van Wees, Guido R. van der Werf, James T. Randerson, Brendan M. Rogers, Yang Chen, Sander Veraverbeke, Louis Giglio, and Douglas C. Morton
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8411–8437, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8411-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global fire emission model based on the GFED model framework with a spatial resolution of 500 m. The higher resolution allowed for a more detailed representation of spatial heterogeneity in fuels and emissions. Specific modules were developed to model, for example, emissions from fire-related forest loss and belowground burning. Results from the 500 m model were compared to GFED4s, showing that global emissions were relatively similar but that spatial differences were substantial.
Clement Jean Frédéric Delcourt and Sander Veraverbeke
Biogeosciences, 19, 4499–4520, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4499-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides new equations that can be used to estimate aboveground tree biomass in larch-dominated forests of northeast Siberia. Applying these equations to 53 forest stands in the Republic of Sakha (Russia) resulted in significantly larger biomass stocks than when using existing equations. The data presented in this work can help refine biomass estimates in Siberian boreal forests. This is essential to assess changes in boreal vegetation and carbon dynamics.
Anna-Maria Virkkala, Susan M. Natali, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kathleen Savage, Sara June Connon, Marguerite Mauritz, Edward A. G. Schuur, Darcy Peter, Christina Minions, Julia Nojeim, Roisin Commane, Craig A. Emmerton, Mathias Goeckede, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Hiroki Iwata, Hideki Kobayashi, Pasi Kolari, Efrén López-Blanco, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Lutz Merbold, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Torsten Sachs, Oliver Sonnentag, Masahito Ueyama, Carolina Voigt, Mika Aurela, Julia Boike, Gerardo Celis, Namyi Chae, Torben R. Christensen, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Sigrid Dengel, Han Dolman, Colin W. Edgar, Bo Elberling, Eugenie Euskirchen, Achim Grelle, Juha Hatakka, Elyn Humphreys, Järvi Järveoja, Ayumi Kotani, Lars Kutzbach, Tuomas Laurila, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Yojiro Matsuura, Gesa Meyer, Mats B. Nilsson, Steven F. Oberbauer, Sang-Jong Park, Roman Petrov, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Christopher Schulze, Vincent L. St. Louis, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, William Quinton, Andrej Varlagin, Donatella Zona, and Viacheslav I. Zyryanov
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 179–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The effects of climate warming on carbon cycling across the Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) remain poorly understood due to the relatively limited distribution of ABZ flux sites. Fortunately, this flux network is constantly increasing, but new measurements are published in various platforms, making it challenging to understand the ABZ carbon cycle as a whole. Here, we compiled a new database of Arctic–boreal CO2 fluxes to help facilitate large-scale assessments of the ABZ carbon cycle.
Thomas Janssen, Ype van der Velde, Florian Hofhansl, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Kim Naudts, Bart Driessen, Katrin Fleischer, and Han Dolman
Biogeosciences, 18, 4445–4472, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite images show that the Amazon forest has greened up during past droughts. Measurements of tree stem growth and leaf litterfall upscaled using machine-learning algorithms show that leaf flushing at the onset of a drought results in canopy rejuvenation and green-up during drought while simultaneously trees excessively shed older leaves and tree stem growth declines. Canopy green-up during drought therefore does not necessarily point to enhanced tree growth and improved forest health.
Elizabeth B. Wiggins, Arlyn Andrews, Colm Sweeney, John B. Miller, Charles E. Miller, Sander Veraverbeke, Roisin Commane, Steven Wofsy, John M. Henderson, and James T. Randerson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8557–8574, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8557-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8557-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed high-resolution trace gas measurements collected from a tower in Alaska during a very active fire season to improve our understanding of trace gas emissions from boreal forest fires. Our results suggest previous studies may have underestimated emissions from smoldering combustion in boreal forest fires.
Leah Birch, Christopher R. Schwalm, Sue Natali, Danica Lombardozzi, Gretchen Keppel-Aleks, Jennifer Watts, Xin Lin, Donatella Zona, Walter Oechel, Torsten Sachs, Thomas Andrew Black, and Brendan M. Rogers
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3361–3382, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3361-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The high-latitude landscape or Arctic–boreal zone has been warming rapidly, impacting the carbon balance both regionally and globally. Given the possible global effects of climate change, it is important to have accurate climate model simulations. We assess the simulation of the Arctic–boreal carbon cycle in the Community Land Model (CLM 5.0). We find biases in both the timing and magnitude photosynthesis. We then use observational data to improve the simulation of the carbon cycle.
Thomas Janssen, Katrin Fleischer, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Kim Naudts, and Han Dolman
Biogeosciences, 17, 2621–2645, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2621-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2621-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The frequency and severity of droughts are expected to increase in the tropics, impacting the functioning of tropical forests. Here, we synthesized observed responses to drought in Neotropical forests. We find that, during drought, trees generally close their leaf stomata, resulting in reductions in photosynthesis, growth and transpiration. However, on the ecosystem scale, these responses are not visible. This indicates that resistance to drought increases from the leaf to ecosystem scale.
Guido R. van der Werf, James T. Randerson, Louis Giglio, Thijs T. van Leeuwen, Yang Chen, Brendan M. Rogers, Mingquan Mu, Margreet J. E. van Marle, Douglas C. Morton, G. James Collatz, Robert J. Yokelson, and Prasad S. Kasibhatla
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 697–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-697-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-697-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Fires occur in many vegetation types and are sometimes natural but often ignited by humans for various purposes. We have estimated how much area they burn globally and what their emissions are. Total burned area is roughly equivalent to the size of the EU with most fires burning in tropical savannas. Their emissions vary substantially from year to year and contribute to the atmospheric burdens of many trace gases and aerosols. The 20-year dataset is mostly suited for large-scale assessments.
R. A. Fisher, S. Muszala, M. Verteinstein, P. Lawrence, C. Xu, N. G. McDowell, R. G. Knox, C. Koven, J. Holm, B. M. Rogers, A. Spessa, D. Lawrence, and G. Bonan
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3593–3619, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting the distribution of vegetation under novel climates is important, both to understand how climate change will impact ecosystem services, but also to understand how vegetation changes might affect the carbon, energy and water cycles. Historically, predictions have been heavily dependent upon observations of existing vegetation boundaries. In this paper, we attempt to predict ecosystem boundaries from the ``bottom up'', and illustrate the complexities and promise of this approach.
S. Veraverbeke, B. M. Rogers, and J. T. Randerson
Biogeosciences, 12, 3579–3601, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3579-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3579-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a statistical model of daily carbon consumption by fire for Alaska at 450m resolution between 2001 and 2012. We used field measurements from black spruce forests in Alaska to build nonlinear multiplicative models predicting carbon consumption by fire in response to environmental variables. Our analysis highlights the importance of accounting for the spatial heterogeneity within fuels and consumption when extrapolating emissions in space and time.
B. M. Rogers, J. T. Randerson, and G. B. Bonan
Biogeosciences, 10, 699–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-699-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-699-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Remote Sensing: Terrestrial
Remote sensing reveals fire-driven enhancement of a C4 invasive alien grass on a small Mediterranean volcanic island
Divergent biophysical responses of western United States forests to wildfire driven by eco-climatic gradients
Synergistic use of Sentinel-2 and UAV-derived data for plant fractional cover distribution mapping of coastal meadows with digital elevation models
Data-based investigation of the effects of canopy structure and shadows on chlorophyll fluorescence in a deciduous oak forest
Evaluation of five models for constructing forest NPP–age relationships in China based on 3121 field survey samples
Reviews and syntheses: Remotely sensed optical time series for monitoring vegetation productivity
Dune belt restoration effectiveness assessed by UAV topographic surveys (northern Adriatic coast, Italy)
High-resolution data reveal a surge of biomass loss from temperate and Atlantic pine forests, contextualizing the 2022 fire season distinctiveness in France
Local environmental context drives heterogeneity of early succession dynamics in alpine glacier forefields
Riccardo Guarino, Daniele Cerra, Renzo Zaia, Alessandro Chiarucci, Pietro Lo Cascio, Duccio Rocchini, Piero Zannini, and Salvatore Pasta
Biogeosciences, 21, 2717–2730, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2717-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The severity and the extent of a large fire event that occurred on the small volcanic island of Stromboli (Aeolian archipelago, Italy) on 25–26 May 2022 were evaluated through remotely sensed data to assess the short-term effect of fire on local plant communities. For the first time, we documented the outstanding after-fire resilience of an invasive alien species, Saccharum biflorum, which is a rhizomatous C4 perennial grass introduced on the island in the nineteenth century.
Surendra Shrestha, Christopher A. Williams, Brendan M. Rogers, John Rogan, and Dominik Kulakowski
Biogeosciences, 21, 2207–2226, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we generated chronosequences of leaf area index (LAI) and surface albedo as a function of time since fire to demonstrate the differences in the characteristic trajectories of post-fire biophysical changes among seven forest types and 21 level III ecoregions of the western United States (US) using satellite data from different sources. We also demonstrated how climate played the dominant role in the recovery of LAI and albedo 10 and 20 years after wildfire events in the western US.
Ricardo Martínez Prentice, Miguel Villoslada, Raymond D. Ward, Thaisa F. Bergamo, Chris B. Joyce, and Kalev Sepp
Biogeosciences, 21, 1411–1431, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite hosting a wide range of ecosystem services, coastal wetlands face threats from global changes. This study models the plant fractional cover of plant communities in Estonian coastal meadows with a synergistic use of drone, satellite imagery and digital elevation models. This approach highlights the significant contribution of digital elevation models to multispectral data, enabling the modelling of heterogeneous plant community distributions in such wetlands.
Hamadou Balde, Gabriel Hmimina, Yves Goulas, Gwendal Latouche, Abderrahmane Ounis, and Kamel Soudani
Biogeosciences, 21, 1259–1276, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1259-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that FyieldLIF was not correlated with SIFy at the diurnal timescale, and the diurnal patterns in SIF and PAR did not match under clear-sky conditions due to canopy structure. Φk was sensitive to canopy structure. RF models show that Φk can be predicted using reflectance in different bands. RF models also show that FyieldLIF was more sensitive to reflectance and radiation than SIF and SIFy, indicating that the combined effect of reflectance bands could hide the SIF physiological trait.
Peng Li, Rong Shang, Jing M. Chen, Mingzhu Xu, Xudong Lin, Guirui Yu, Nianpeng He, and Li Xu
Biogeosciences, 21, 625–639, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-625-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of carbon that forests gain from the atmosphere, called net primary productivity (NPP), changes a lot with age. These forest NPP–age relationships could be modeled from field survey data, but we are not sure which model works best. Here we tested five different models using 3121 field survey samples in China, and the semi-empirical mathematical (SEM) function was determined as the optimal. The relationships built by SEM can improve China's forest carbon modeling and prediction.
Lammert Kooistra, Katja Berger, Benjamin Brede, Lukas Valentin Graf, Helge Aasen, Jean-Louis Roujean, Miriam Machwitz, Martin Schlerf, Clement Atzberger, Egor Prikaziuk, Dessislava Ganeva, Enrico Tomelleri, Holly Croft, Pablo Reyes Muñoz, Virginia Garcia Millan, Roshanak Darvishzadeh, Gerbrand Koren, Ittai Herrmann, Offer Rozenstein, Santiago Belda, Miina Rautiainen, Stein Rune Karlsen, Cláudio Figueira Silva, Sofia Cerasoli, Jon Pierre, Emine Tanır Kayıkçı, Andrej Halabuk, Esra Tunc Gormus, Frank Fluit, Zhanzhang Cai, Marlena Kycko, Thomas Udelhoven, and Jochem Verrelst
Biogeosciences, 21, 473–511, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We reviewed optical remote sensing time series (TS) studies for monitoring vegetation productivity across ecosystems. Methods were categorized into trend analysis, land surface phenology, and assimilation into statistical or dynamic vegetation models. Due to progress in machine learning, TS processing methods will diversify, while modelling strategies will advance towards holistic processing. We propose integrating methods into a digital twin to improve the understanding of vegetation dynamics.
Regine Anne Faelga, Luigi Cantelli, Sonia Silvestri, and Beatrice Maria Sole Giambastiani
Biogeosciences, 20, 4841–4855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A dune restoration project on the northern Adriatic coast (Ravenna, Italy) was assessed using UAV monitoring. Structure-from-motion photogrammetry, elevation differencing, and statistical analysis were used to quantify dune development in terms of sand volume and vegetation cover change. Results show that the installed fence has been effective as there was significant sand accumulation, embryo dune development, and a decrease in blowout features due to increased vegetation colonization.
Lilian Vallet, Martin Schwartz, Philippe Ciais, Dave van Wees, Aurelien de Truchis, and Florent Mouillot
Biogeosciences, 20, 3803–3825, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3803-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes the ecological impact of the 2022 summer fire season in France by using high-resolution satellite data. The total biomass loss was 2.553 Mt, equivalent to a 17 % increase of the average natural mortality of all French forests. While Mediterranean forests had a lower biomass loss, there was a drastic increase in burned area and biomass loss over the Atlantic pine forests and temperate forests. This result revisits the distinctiveness of the 2022 fire season.
Arthur Bayle, Bradley Z. Carlson, Anaïs Zimmer, Sophie Vallée, Antoine Rabatel, Edoardo Cremonese, Gianluca Filippa, Cédric Dentant, Christophe Randin, Andrea Mainetti, Erwan Roussel, Simon Gascoin, Dov Corenblit, and Philippe Choler
Biogeosciences, 20, 1649–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1649-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier forefields have long provided ecologists with a model to study patterns of plant succession following glacier retreat. We used remote sensing approaches to study early succession dynamics as it allows to analyze the deglaciation, colonization, and vegetation growth within a single framework. We found that the heterogeneity of early succession dynamics is deterministic and can be explained well by local environmental context. This work has been done by an international consortium.
Cited articles
Abatzoglou, J. T. and Williams, A. P.: Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 11770–11775, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113, 2016.
Abatzoglou, J. T., Kolden, C. A., Balch, J. K., and Bradley, B. A.: Controls on interannual variability in lightning-caused fire activity in the western US, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 045005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/045005, 2016.
Albert-Green, A., Dean, C. B., Martell, D. L., and Woolford, D. G.: A methodology for investigating trends in changes in the timing of the fire season with applications to lightning-caused forest fires in Alberta and Ontario, Canada, Can. J. For. Res., 43, 39–45, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2011-0432, 2013.
Alves, M., Nadeau, D. F., Music, B., Anctil, F., and Parajuli, A.: On the performance of the Canadian land surface scheme driven by the ERA5 reanalysis over the Canadian boreal forest, J. Hydrometeorol., 21, 1383–1404, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0172.1, 2020.
Anisimov, O. A., Vaughan, D. G., Callaghan, T. V., Furgal, C., Marchant, H., Prowse, T. D., Vilhjalmsson, H., and Walsh, J. E.: Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic), Clim. Chang. 2007 Impacts, Adapt. Vulnerability. Contrib. ofWorking Gr. II to Fourth As- sessment Rep. Intergov. Panel Clim. Chang., 653–685, 2007.
Armstrong, A., Braaten, J., and Shelby, M.: Identifying Annual First Day of No Snow Cover, Google Earth Engine, https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/tutorials/community/identifying-first-day-no-snow (last access: 7 July 2022), 2023.
Balshi, M. S., McGuire, A. D., Duffy, P., Flannigan, M., Walsh, J., and Melillo, J.: Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach, Glob. Chang. Biol., 15, 578–600, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01679.x, 2009.
Baltzer, J. L., Day, N. J., Walker, X. J., Greene, D., Mack, M. C., Alexander, H. D., Arseneault, D., Barnes, J., Bergeron, Y., Boucher, Y., Bourgeau-Chavez, L., Brown, C. D., Carriere, S., Howard, B. K., Gauthier, S., Parisien, M. A., Reid, K. A., Rogers, B. M., Roland, C., Sirois, L., Stehn, S., Thompson, D. K., Turetsky, M. R., Veraverbeke, S., Whitman, E., Yang, J., and Johnstone, J. F.: Increasing fire and the decline of fire adapted black spruce in the boreal forest, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024872118, 2021.
Barnett, T. P., Adam, J. C., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Nature, 438, 303–309, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04141, 2005.
Bartsch, A., Balzter, H., and George, C.: The influence of regional surface soil moisture anomalies on forest fires in Siberia observed from satellites, Environ. Res. Lett., 4, 045021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045021, 2009.
Bormann, K. J., Brown, R. D., Derksen, C., and Painter, T. H.: Estimating snow-cover trends from space, Nat. Clim. Chang., 8, 924–928, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0318-3, 2018.
Brodzik, M. J. and Armstrong, R.: Northern Hemisphere EASE-Grid 2.0 Weekly Snow Cover and Sea Ice Extent, Version 4. Boulder, Colorado USA, NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/P7O0HGJLYUQU (last access: 26 January 2022), 2013.
Brown, R. D. and Mote, P. W.: The response of Northern Hemisphere snow cover to a changing climate, J. Climate, 22, 2124–2145, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2665.1, 2009.
Brown, R. D. and Robinson, D. A.: Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover variability and change over 1922–2010 including an assessment of uncertainty, The Cryosphere, 5, 219–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-219-2011, 2011.
Buermann, W., Bikash, P. R., Jung, M., Burn, D. H., and Reichstein, M.: Earlier springs decrease peak summer productivity in North American boreal forests, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 024027, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024027, 2013.
Chen, X., Liang, S., and Cao, Y.: Satellite observed changes in the Northern Hemisphere snow cover phenology and the associated radiative forcing and feedback between 1982 and 2013, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 084002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084002, 2016.
Chen, Y., Romps, D. M., Seeley, J. T., Veraverbeke, S., Riley, W. J., Mekonnen, Z. A., and Randerson, J. T.: Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 404–410, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01011-y, 2021.
Cohen, J. L., Furtado, J. C., Barlow, M. A., Alexeev, V. A., and Cherry, J. E.: Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 014007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014007, 2012.
Cohen, J., Screen, J. A., Furtado, J. C., Barlow, M., Whittleston, D., Coumou, D., Francis, J., Dethloff, K., Entekhabi, D., Overland, J., and Jones, J.: Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather, Nat. Geosci., 7, 627–637, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2234, 2014.
Coumou, D., Di Capua, G., Vavrus, S., Wang, L., and Wang, S.: The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation, Nat. Commun., 9, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05256-8, 2018.
Déry, S. J. and Brown, R. D.: Recent Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent trends and implications for the snow-albedo feedback, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031474, 2007.
Estilow, T. W., Young, A. H., and Robinson, D. A.: A long-term Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent data record for climate studies and monitoring, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 137–142, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-137-2015, 2015.
Flanner, M. G., Shell, K. M., Barlage, M., Perovich, D. K., and Tschudi, M. A.: Radiative forcing and albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere between 1979 and 2008, Nat. Geosci., 4, 151–155, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1062, 2011.
Flannigan, M., Cantin, A. S., De Groot, W. J., Wotton, M., Newbery, A., and Gowman, L. M.: Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century, For. Ecol. Manage., 294, 54–61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.022, 2013.
Flannigan, M. D., Logan, K. A., Amiro, B. D., Skinner, W. R., and Stocks, B. J.: Future area burned in Canada, Clim. Change, 72, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5935-y, 2005.
Flannigan, M. D., Wotton, B. M., Marshall, G. A., de Groot, W. J., Johnston, J., Jurko, N., and Cantin, A. S.: Fuel moisture sensitivity to temperature and precipitation: climate change implications, Clim. Change, 134, 59–71, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1521-0, 2016.
Francis, J. A. and Vavrus, S. J.: Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051000, 2012.
French, N. H. F., Jenkins, L. K., Loboda, T. V., Flannigan, M., Jandt, R., Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L., and Whitley, M.: Fire in arctic tundra of Alaska: Past fire activity, future fire potential, and significance for land management and ecology, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 24, 1045–1061, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF14167, 2015.
Gergel, D. R., Nijssen, B., Abatzoglou, J. T., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Stumbaugh, M. R.: Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA, Clim. Change, 141, 287–299, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1899-y, 2017.
Giglio, L., Schroeder, W., and Justice, C. O.: The collection 6 MODIS active fire detection algorithm and fire products, Remote Sens. Environ., 178, 31–41, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2016.02.054, 2016.
Giglio, L., Boschetti, L., Roy, D. P., Humber, M. L., and Justice, C. O.: The Collection 6 MODIS burned area mapping algorithm and product, Remote Sens. Environ., 217, 72–85, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.08.005, 2018.
Gloege, L., Kornhuber, K., Skulovich, O., Pal, I., Zhou, S., Ciais, P., and Gentine, P.: Land-Atmosphere Cascade Fueled the 2020 Siberian Heatwave, AGU Adv., 3, e2021AV000619, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021AV000619, 2022.
Goss, M., Swain, D. L., Abatzoglou, J. T., Sarhadi, A., Kolden, C. A., Williams, A. P., and Diffenbaugh, N. S.: Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 094016, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7, 2020.
Graham, R. M., Cohen, L., Petty, A. A., Boisvert, L. N., Rinke, A., Hudson, S. R., Nicolaus, M., and Granskog, M. A.: Increasing frequency and duration of Arctic winter warming events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 6974–6983, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073395, 2017.
Groisman, P. Y., Karl, T. R., and Knight, R. W.: Observed impact of snow cover on the heat balance and the rise of continental spring temperatures, Science, 263, 198–200, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.263.5144.198, 1994.
Hall, D. K. and Riggs, G. A.: MODIS/Terra Snow Cover Daily L3 Global 500 m SIN Grid, Version 6. Boulder, Colorado USA. NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD10A1.006 (last access: 7 July 2022), 2016.
Hanes, C. C., Wang, X., Jain, P., Parisien, M. A., Little, J. M., and Flannigan, M. D.: Fire-regime changes in canada over the last half century, Can. J. For. Res., 49, 256–269, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2018-0293, 2019.
Helfrich, S. R., McNamara, D., Ramsay, B. H., Baldwin, T., and Kasheta, T.: Enhancements to, and forthcoming developments in the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS), Hydrol. Process., 21, 1576–1586, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6720, 2007.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J. N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hessilt, T. D., Abatzoglou, J. T., Chen, Y., Randerson, J. T., Scholten, R. C., Van Der Werf, G., and Veraverbeke, S.: Future increases in lightning ignition efficiency and wildfire occurrence expected from drier fuels in boreal forest ecosystems of western North America, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 054008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6311, 2022.
Hessilt, T. D., Rogers, B. M., Scholten, R. C., Potter, S., Janssen, T. A. J., and Veraverbeke, S.: ABoVE: Ignitions of ABoVE-FED Fires in Alaska and Canada. ORNL DAAC, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, [data set], https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/2316, 2023.
Holden, Z. A., Swanson, A., Luce, C. H., Jolly, W. M., Maneta, M., Oyler, J. W., Warren, D. A., Parsons, R., and Affleck, D.: Decreasing fire season precipitation increased recent western US forest wildfire activity, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 8349–8357, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1802316115, 2018.
Horton, R. M., Mankin, J. S., Lesk, C., Coffel, E., and Raymond, C.: A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events, Curr. Clim. Chang. Rep., 2, 242–259, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0042-x, 2016.
Jain, P. and Flannigan, M.: The relationship between the polar jet stream and extreme wildfire events in North America, J. Climate, 34, 6247–6265, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0863.1, 2021.
Jain, P., Wang, X., and Flannigan, M. D.: Trend analysis of fire season length and extreme fire weather in North America between 1979 and 2015, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 26, 1009–1020, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17008, 2017.
Jolly, W. M., Cochrane, M. A., Freeborn, P. H., Holden, Z. A., Brown, T. J., Williamson, G. J., and Bowman, D. M. J. S.: Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013, Nat. Commun., 6, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8537, 2015.
Justice, C. O., Giglio, L., Korontzi, S., Owens, J., Morisette, J. T., Roy, D., Descloitres, J., Alleaume, S., Petitcolin, F., and Kaufman, Y.: The MODIS fire products, Remote Sens. Environ., 83, 244–262, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(02)00076-7, 2002.
Kasischke, E. S., Williams, D., and Barry, D.: Analysis of the patterns of large fires in the boreal forest region of Alaska, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 11, 131–144, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF02023, 2002.
Kim, B. M., Son, S. W., Min, S. K., Jeong, J. H., Kim, S. J., Zhang, X., Shim, T., and Yoon, J. H.: Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss, Nat. Commun., 5, 4646, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms5646, 2014.
Kitzberger, T., Falk, D. A., Westerling, A. L., and Swetnam, T. W.: Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America, PLoS One, 12, 429–438, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0188486, 2017.
Kretschmer, M., Coumou, D., Agel, L., BArlow, M., Tziperman, E., and Cohen, J. D.: More-persistent weak stratospheric polar vortex States linked to cold extremes, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 49–60, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1, 2018a.
Kretschmer, M., Cohen, J., Matthias, V., Runge, J., and Coumou, D.: The different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 1, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0054-4, 2018b.
Lawson, B. D. and Armitage, O. B.: Weather Guide Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, 1–73, ISBN 978-1-100-11565-8, 2008.
Lefcheck, J. S.: piecewiseSEM: Piecewise structural equation modelling in r for ecology, evolution, and systematics, Methods Ecol. Evol., 7, 573–579, https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12512, 2016.
Li, D., Wrzesien, M. L., Durand, M., Adam, J., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: How much runoff originates as snow in the western United States, and how will that change in the future?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 6163–6172, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073551, 2017.
Liu, L., Gudmundsson, L., Hauser, M., Qin, D., Li, S., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Soil moisture dominates dryness stress on ecosystem production globally, Nat. Commun., 11, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18631-1, 2020.
Mann, H. B. and Whitney, D. R.: On a Test of Whether one of Two Random Variables is Stochastically Larger than the Other, Ann. Math. Stat., 1, 50–60, 1947.
McCabe, G. J., Clark, M. P., and Hay, L. E.: Rain-on-snow events in the western United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 319–328, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-3-319, 2007.
McCammon, B. P.: Snowpack influences on dead fuel moisture, For. Sci., 22, 323–328, 1976.
McCarty, J. L., Smith, T. E. L., and Turetsky, M. R.: Arctic fires re-emerging, Nat. Geosci., 13, 658–660, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-00645-5, 2020.
McCoy, C. and Neumark-Gaudet, L.: 9. Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC), Yearb. Int. Environ. Law, https://doi.org/10.1093/yiel/yvac036, 2022.
Miles, V. V. and Esau, I.: Spatial heterogeneity of greening and browning between and within bioclimatic zones in northern West Siberia, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 115002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/115002, 2016.
Oksanen, J., Blanchet, F. G., Kindt, R., Legendre, P., Minchin, P. R., O'hara, R. B., and Oksanen, M. J.: Package “vegan”, Community ecology package, version 2, 1–295, 2013.
Olthof, I., Latifovic, R., and Pouliot, D.: Medium resolution land cover mapping of Canada from SPOT 4/5 data, Tech. Report, Geomatics Canada, 2015, https://doi.org/10.4095/295751, 2015.
Omernik, J. M.: Ecoregions of the Conterminous United States, Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr., 77, 118–125, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.1987.tb00149.x, 1987.
Omernik, J. M.: Ecoregions: a framework for managing ecosystems, in: The George Wright Forum, 12, 1, 35–50, George Wright Society, 1995.
Parisien, M. A., Barber, Q. E., Flannigan, M. D., and Jain, P.: Broadleaf tree phenology and springtime wildfire occurrence in boreal Canada, Glob. Chang. Biol., 29, 6106–6119 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16820, 2023.
Pavlic, G., Chen, W., Fernandes, R., Cihlar, J., Price, D. T., Latifovic, R., Fraser, R., Chen, W., Fernandes, R., Cihlar, J., Price, D. T., Latifovic, R., and Fraser, R.: Canada-wide maps of dominant tree species from remotely sensed and ground data, Geocarto Int., 22, 185–207, https://doi.org/10.1080/10106040701201798, 2007.
Phillips, C. A., Rogers, B. M., Elder, M., Cooperdock, S., Moubarak, M., Randerson, J. T., and Frumhoff, P. C.: Escalating carbon emissions from North American boreal forest wildfires and the climate mitigation potential of fire management, Sci. Adv., 8, eabl7161, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abl7161, 2022.
Pinheiro, J., Bates, D., and Team, R. C.: nlme: Linear and Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models version 3.1-160, https://cran.r-project.org/package=nlme (last access: 15 October 2023), 2022.
Post, E., Forchhammer, M. C., Bret-Harte, M. S., Callaghan, T. V., Christensen, T. R., Elberling, B., Fox, A. D., Gilg, O., Hik, D. S., Høye, T. T., Ims, R. A., Jeppesen, E., Klein, D. R., Madsen, J., McGuire, A. D., Rysgaard, S., Schindler, D. E., Stirling, I., Tamstorf, M. P., Tyler, N. J. C., Van Der Wal, R., Welker, J., Wookey, P. A., Schmidt, N. M., and Aastrup, P.: Ecological dynamics across the arctic associated with recent climate change, Science, 325, 1355–1358, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1173113, 2009.
Potter, S., Veraverbeke, S., Walker, X. J., Mack, M. C., Goetz, S. J., Baltzer, J. L., Dieleman, C., French, N. H. F., Kane, E. S., Turetsky, M. R., Wiggins, E. B., and Rogers, B. M.: ABoVE: Burned Area, Depth, and Combustion for Alaska and Canada, 2001–2019, ORNL DAAC, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, [data set], https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/2063 (last access: 24 June 2022), 2022.
Potter, S., Cooperdock, S., Veraverbeke, S., Walker, X., Mack, M. C., Goetz, S. J., Baltzer, J., Bourgeau-Chavez, L., Burrell, A., Dieleman, C., French, N., Hantson, S., Hoy, E. E., Jenkins, L., Johnstone, J. F., Kane, E. S., Natali, S. M., Randerson, J. T., Turetsky, M. R., Whitman, E., Wiggins, E., and Rogers, B. M.: Burned area and carbon emissions across northwestern boreal North America from 2001–2019, Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023.
Ramsay, B. H.: The interactive multisensor snow and ice mapping system, Hydrol. Process., 12, 1537–1546, https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1085(199808/09)12:10/11<1537::aid-hyp679>3.0.co;2-a, 1998.
Rantanen, M., Karpechko, A. Y., Lipponen, A., Nordling, K., Hyvärinen, O., Ruosteenoja, K., Vihma, T., and Laaksonen, A.: The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3, 2022.
Robinson, D., David, A., Estilow, T., and Program, N. C.: NOAA Climate Date Record (CDR) of Northern Hemisphere (NH) Snow Cover Extent (SCE), Version 1., NOAA Natl. Clim. Data Cent., 137–142, https://doi.org/10.7289/V5N014G9, 2012.
Salomonson, V. V. and Appel, I.: Estimating fractional snow cover from MODIS using the normalized difference snow index, Remote Sens. Environ., 89, 351–360, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2003.10.016, 2004.
Scholten, R. C., Veraverbeke, S., Jandt, R., Miller, E. A., and Rogers, B. M.: ABoVE: Ignitions, Burned Area, and Emissions of Fires in AK, YT, and NWT, 2001–2018, ORNL DAAC, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, [data set], https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1812 (last access: 15 December 2021), 2021a.
Scholten, R. C., Jandt, R., Miller, E. A., Rogers, B. M., and Veraverbeke, S.: Overwintering fires in boreal forests, Nature, 593, 399–404, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03437-y, 2021b.
Scholten, R. C., Coumou, D., Luo, F., and Veraverbeke, S.: Early snowmelt and polar jet dynamics co-influence recent extreme Siberian fire seasons, Science, 1009, 1005–1009, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn4419, 2022.
Sedano, F. and Randerson, J. T.: Multi-scale influence of vapor pressure deficit on fire ignition and spread in boreal forest ecosystems, Biogeosciences, 11, 3739–3755, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3739-2014, 2014.
Seneviratne, S. I., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B., Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review, Earth-Sci. Rev., 99, 125–161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004, 2010.
Sharma, A. R., Jain, P., Abatzoglou, J. T., and Flannigan, M.: Persistent Positive Anomalies in Geopotential Heights Promote Wildfires in Western North America, J. Climate, 35, 2867–2884, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0926.1, 2022.
Shipley, B.: Confirmatory path analysis in a generalized multilevel context, Ecology, 90, 363–368, https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1034.1, 2009.
Singh, D., Swain, D. L., Mankin, J. S., Horton, D. E., Thomas, L. N., Rajaratnam, B., and Diffenbaugh, N. S.: Recent amplification of the North American winter temperature dipole, J. Geophys. Res., 121, 9911–9928, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025116, 2016.
Skakun, R., Whitman, E., Little, J. M., and Parisien, M. A.: Area burned adjustments to historical wildland fires in Canada, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 064014, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfb2c, 2021.
Skinner, W. R., Stocks, B. J., Martell, D. L., Bonsal, B., and Shabbar, A.: The association between circulation anomalies in the mid-troposphere and area burned by wildland fire in Canada, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 63, 89–105, https://doi.org/10.1007/s007040050095, 1999.
Stocks, B. J., Mason, J. A., Todd, J. B., Bosch, E. M., Wotton, B. M., Amiro, B. D., Flannigan, M. D., Hirsch, K. G., Logan, K. A., Martell, D. L., and Skinner, W. R.: Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, FFR 5-1-FFR 5-12, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001jd000484, 2002.
Suzuki, K., Hiyama, T., Matsuo, K., Ichii, K., Iijima, Y., and Yamazaki, D.: Accelerated continental-scale snowmelt and ecohydrological impacts in the four largest Siberian river basins in response to spring warming, Hydrol. Process., 34, 3867–3881, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13844, 2020.
Swenson, S. C. and Lawrence, D. M.: A new fractional snow-covered area parameterization for the Community Land Model and its effect on the surface energy balance, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018178, 2012.
Tang, Q., Zhang, X., and Francis, J. A.: Extreme summer weather in northern mid-latitudes linked to a vanishing cryosphere, Nat. Clim. Chang., 4, 45–50, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2065, 2014.
Team, R. D. C.: R: a language and environment for statistical com- puting, https://www.r-project.org/ (last access: 15 October 2013), 2022.
US EPA: Ecoregions of North America [data], https://www.epa.gov/eco-research/ecoregions-north-america (last access: 3 May 2021), 2015.
Veraverbeke, S., Rogers, B. M., and Randerson, J. T.: Daily burned area and carbon emissions from boreal fires in Alaska, Biogeosciences, 12, 3579–3601, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3579-2015, 2015.
Veraverbeke, S., Rogers, B. M., Goulden, M. L., Jandt, R. R., Miller, C. E., Wiggins, E. B., and Randerson, J. T.: Lightning as a major driver of recent large fire years in North American boreal forests, Nat. Clim. Chang., 7, 529–534, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3329, 2017.
Verbyla, D. L.: ABoVE: Last Day of Spring Snow, Alaska, USA, and Yukon Territory, Canada, 2000–2016, ORNL DAAC, 1, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1528, 2017.
Vitolo, C., Di Giuseppe, F., Barnard, C., Coughlan, R., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Libertá, G., and Krzeminski, B.: ERA5-based global meteorological wildfire danger maps, Sci. Data, 7, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0554-z, 2020.
Van Wagner, C. E.: Development and Structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System, 37 pp., 1987.
Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., and Swetnam, T. W.: Warming and earlier spring increase Western U.S. forest wildfire activity, Science, 313, 940–943, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128834, 2006.
Wotton, B. M. and Flannigan, M. D.: Length of the fire season in a changing climate, For. Chron., 69, 187–192, https://doi.org/10.5558/tfc69187-2, 19
Wotton, B. M., Nock, C. A., and Flannigan, M. D.: Forest fire occurrence and climate change in Canada, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 19, 253–271, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF09002, 2010.
Xu, W., Scholten, R. C., Hessilt, T. D., Liu, Y., and Veraverbeke, S.: Overwintering fires rising in eastern Siberia, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 045005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac59aa, 2022.
Zhao, Z., Lin, Z., Li, F., and Rogers, B. M.: Influence of atmospheric teleconnections on interannual variability of Arctic-boreal fires, Sci. Total Environ., 838, 156550, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156550, 2022.
Zona, D., Lafleur, P. M., Hufkens, K., Bailey, B., Gioli, B., Burba, G., Goodrich, J. P., Liljedahl, A. K., Euskirchen, E. S., Watts, J. D., Farina, M., Kimball, J. S., Heimann, M., Göckede, M., Pallandt, M., Christensen, T. R., Mastepanov, M., López-Blanco, E., Jackowicz-Korczynski, M., Dolman, A. J., Marchesini, L. B., Commane, R., Wofsy, S. C., Miller, C. E., Lipson, D. A., Hashemi, J., Arndt, K. A., Kutzbach, L., Holl, D., Boike, J., Wille, C., Sachs, T., Kalhori, A., Song, X., Xu, X., Humphreys, E. R., Koven, C. D., Sonnentag, O., Meyer, G., Gosselin, G. H., Marsh, P., and Oechel, W. C.: Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season decLin plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems, Sci. Rep., 12, 3986, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-07561-1, 2022.
Zou, Y., Rasch, P. J., Wang, H., Xie, Z., and Zhang, R.: Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic, Nat. Commun., 12, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26232-9, 2021.
Zuur, A. F., Ieno, E. N., Walker, N. J., Saveliev, A. A., and Smith, G. M.: Mixed effects models and extensions in ecology with R, Springer New York, NY, 574 pp., https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-87458-6, 2009.
Short summary
In boreal North America, snow and frozen ground prevail in winter, while fires occur in summer. Over the last 20 years, the northwestern parts have experienced earlier snow disappearance and more ignitions. This is opposite to the southeastern parts. However, earlier ignitions following earlier snow disappearance timing led to larger fires across the region. Snow disappearance timing may be a good proxy for ignition timing and may also influence important atmospheric conditions related to fires.
In boreal North America, snow and frozen ground prevail in winter, while fires occur in summer....
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint