Kilometre-scale simulations over Fennoscandia reveal a  large loss of tundra due to climate warming

Lagergren, Fredrik; Björk, Robert G.; Andersson, Camilla; Belušić, Danijel; Björkman, Mats P.; Kjellström, Erik; Lind, Petter; Lindstedt, David; Olenius, Tinja; Pleijel, Håkan; Rosqvist, Gunhild; Miller, Paul A.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024

Articles | Volume 21, issue 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 5

Research article

|

05 Mar 2024

Research article |

| 05 Mar 2024

Kilometre-scale simulations over Fennoscandia reveal a large loss of tundra due to climate warming

Fredrik Lagergren, Robert G. Björk, Camilla Andersson, Danijel Belušić, Mats P. Björkman, Erik Kjellström, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Tinja Olenius, Håkan Pleijel, Gunhild Rosqvist, and Paul A. Miller

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024-supplement

Data sets

BioDiv-Support: Webtool dataset v1.0 (v1.0) C. Andersson et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7573171

Deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe 1900–2050. Model calculations with EMEP and MATCH models M. Engardt and D. Simpson https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4501636

Vegetation inventories from the study: Expansion of deciduous shrubs but not evergreen dwarf shrubs inhibited by reindeer in Scandes mountain range (1.0) T. Vowles https://doi.org/10.5879/ecds/2017-01-29.1/0

LPJ-GUESS model results with arctic plant functional types (PFTs) for Fennoscandia from the BioDiv-Support project at RCP 8.5 F. Lagergren and P. A. Miller https://doi.org/10.18161/j395-1j66

ECLIPSE V6b global emission fields Z. Klimont and C. Heyes https://previous.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/ECLIPSEv6b.html

NGCD – Nordic Gridded Climate Dataset Norwegian Meteorological Institute https://thredds.met.no/thredds/catalog/ngcd/catalog.html

Soil texture – FAO at 10 km (global) SURFEX https://www.umr-cnrm.fr/surfex/spip.php?article135

CORINE Land Cover 2018 (raster 100 m), Europe, 6-yearly Copernicus https://doi.org/10.2909/960998c1-1870-4e82-8051-6485205ebbac

Global Land Cover 2000 – Download, Northern Eurasia v4.0 S. Bartalev https://forobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/glc2000/data

Model code and software

Incorporating reindeer grazing and damage by ozone in LPJ-GUESS for the BioDiv-Support project F. Lagergren et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8262590

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Short summary

The Fennoscandian boreal and mountain regions harbour a wide range of ecosystems sensitive to climate change. A new, highly resolved high-emission climate scenario enabled modelling of the vegetation development in this region at high resolution for the 21st century. The results show dramatic south to north and low- to high-altitude shifts of vegetation zones, especially for the open tundra environments, which will have large implications for nature conservation, reindeer husbandry and forestry.