Articles | Volume 21, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Mar 2024
Research article |
| 05 Mar 2024
| 05 Mar 2024
Kilometre-scale simulations over Fennoscandia reveal a large loss of tundra due to climate warming
Fredrik Lagergren
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, 223 62, Sweden
Robert G. Björk
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, 405 30, Sweden
Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Gothenburg, 405 30, Sweden
Camilla Andersson
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden
Danijel Belušić
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden
Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, 10 000, Croatia
Mats P. Björkman
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, 405 30, Sweden
Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Gothenburg, 405 30, Sweden
now at: Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, 405 30, Sweden
Erik Kjellström
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden
Petter Lind
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden
David Lindstedt
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden
Tinja Olenius
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden
Håkan Pleijel
Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, 405 30, Sweden
Gunhild Rosqvist
Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 106 91, Sweden
Paul A. Miller
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, 223 62, Sweden
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Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-239, 2025
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The European spruce bark beetle (SBB) has, in recent years, been the most important disturbance agent in many European forests. We implemented a SBB module in a dynamic vegetation model and calibrated it against observations from Sweden, Switzerland, Austria and France. The start and duration of outbreaks triggered by storm damage and the increased damage driven by recent warm and dry periods were reasonably well simulated, although the spread was reflected in uncertain parameter estimates.
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Kilometer (km)-scale climate models have large added value for modeling precipitation, but their benefits for winds are less studied. We show that the km-scale model better reproduces strong winds in complex terrain, which are up to twice as strong as in a coarser model, and can capture downslope glacier winds in higher terrain. Future changes in mean and strong winds are governed by the large-scale circulation change, whereas for weak winds, they are governed by the temperature change, which is less uncertain.
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Nikolina Mileva, Julia Pongratz, Vivek K. Arora, Akihiko Ito, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Sonali S. McDermid, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Roland Séférian, Yanwu Zhang, and Wolfgang Buermann
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Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Müller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
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Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara H. Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek Müller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Yi Xi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 22, 305–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, 2025
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Fredrik Lagergren, Anna Maria Jönsson, Mats Lindeskog, and Thomas A. M. Pugh
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-239, 2025
Preprint under review for GMD
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The European spruce bark beetle (SBB) has, in recent years, been the most important disturbance agent in many European forests. We implemented a SBB module in a dynamic vegetation model and calibrated it against observations from Sweden, Switzerland, Austria and France. The start and duration of outbreaks triggered by storm damage and the increased damage driven by recent warm and dry periods were reasonably well simulated, although the spread was reflected in uncertain parameter estimates.
Carl Svenhag, Pontus Roldin, Tinja Olenius, Robin Wollesen de Jonge, Sara Blichner, Daniel Yazgi, and Moa Sporre
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3626, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3626, 2024
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This study investigates the model representation of how particles are formed and grow in the atmosphere. Using modeled and observed data from two boreal forest stations in 2018, we identify key factors for NPF to improve particle-climate predictions in the global EC-Earth3 model. Comparisons with the detailed ADCHEM model show that adding ammonia improves particle growth predictions, though EC-Earth3 still highly underestimates the number of particles during warmer months.
Jo Cook, Clare Brewster, Felicity Hayes, Nathan Booth, Sam Bland, Pritha Pande, Samarthia Thankappan, Håkan Pleijel, and Lisa Emberson
Biogeosciences, 21, 4809–4835, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4809-2024, 2024
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At ground level, the air pollutant ozone (O3) damages wheat yield and quality. We modified the DO3SE-Crop model to simulate O3 effects on wheat quality and identified onset of leaf death as the key process affecting wheat quality upon O3 exposure. This aligns with expectations, as the onset of leaf death aids nutrient transfer from leaves to grains. Breeders should prioritize wheat varieties resistant to protein loss from delayed leaf death, to maintain yield and quality under O3 exposure.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
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We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
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Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
Carl Svenhag, Moa K. Sporre, Tinja Olenius, Daniel Yazgi, Sara M. Blichner, Lars P. Nieradzik, and Pontus Roldin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4923–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, 2024
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Our research shows the importance of modeling new particle formation (NPF) and growth of particles in the atmosphere on a global scale, as they influence the outcomes of clouds and our climate. With the global model EC-Earth3 we show that using a new method for NPF modeling, which includes new detailed processes with NH3 and H2SO4, significantly impacts the number of particles in the air and clouds and changes the radiation balance of the same magnitude as anthropogenic greenhouse emissions.
Jalisha T. Kallingal, Johan Lindström, Paul A. Miller, Janne Rinne, Maarit Raivonen, and Marko Scholze
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2299–2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2299-2024, 2024
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By unlocking the mysteries of CH4 emissions from wetlands, our work improved the accuracy of the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model using Bayesian statistics. Via assimilation of long-term real data from a wetland, we significantly enhanced CH4 emission predictions. This advancement helps us better understand wetland contributions to atmospheric CH4, which are crucial for addressing climate change. Our method offers a promising tool for refining global climate models and guiding conservation efforts
Jalisha Theanutti Kallingal, Marko Scholze, Paul Anthony Miller, Johan Lindström, Janne Rinne, Mika Aurela, Patrik Vestin, and Per Weslien
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-373, 2024
Preprint archived
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Our study employs an Adaptive MCMC algorithm (GRaB-AM) to constrain process parameters in the wetlands emission module of the LPJ-GUESS model, using CH4 EC flux observations from 14 diverse wetlands. We aim to derive a single set of parameters capable of representing the diversity of northern wetlands. By reducing uncertainties in model parameters and improving simulation accuracy, our research contributes to more reliable projections of future wetland CH4 emissions and their climate impact.
Philip Meister, Anne Alexandre, Hannah Bailey, Philip Barker, Boris K. Biskaborn, Ellie Broadman, Rosine Cartier, Bernhard Chapligin, Martine Couapel, Jonathan R. Dean, Bernhard Diekmann, Poppy Harding, Andrew C. G. Henderson, Armand Hernandez, Ulrike Herzschuh, Svetlana S. Kostrova, Jack Lacey, Melanie J. Leng, Andreas Lücke, Anson W. Mackay, Eniko Katalin Magyari, Biljana Narancic, Cécile Porchier, Gunhild Rosqvist, Aldo Shemesh, Corinne Sonzogni, George E. A. Swann, Florence Sylvestre, and Hanno Meyer
Clim. Past, 20, 363–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-363-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-363-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the first comprehensive compilation of diatom oxygen isotope records in lake sediments (δ18OBSi), supported by lake basin parameters. We infer the spatial and temporal coverage of δ18OBSi records and discuss common hemispheric trends on centennial and millennial timescales. Key results are common patterns for hydrologically open lakes in Northern Hemisphere extratropical regions during the Holocene corresponding to known climatic epochs, i.e. the Holocene Thermal Maximum.
Andrea Spolaor, Federico Scoto, Catherine Larose, Elena Barbaro, Francois Burgay, Mats P. Bjorkman, David Cappelletti, Federico Dallo, Fabrizio de Blasi, Dmitry Divine, Giuliano Dreossi, Jacopo Gabrieli, Elisabeth Isaksson, Jack Kohler, Tonu Martma, Louise S. Schmidt, Thomas V. Schuler, Barbara Stenni, Clara Turetta, Bartłomiej Luks, Mathieu Casado, and Jean-Charles Gallet
The Cryosphere, 18, 307–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-307-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-307-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the impact of the increased snowmelt on the preservation of the oxygen isotope (δ18O) signal in firn records recovered from the top of the Holtedahlfonna ice field located in the Svalbard archipelago. Thanks to a multidisciplinary approach we demonstrate a progressive deterioration of the isotope signal in the firn core. We link the degradation of the δ18O signal to the increased occurrence and intensity of melt events associated with the rapid warming occurring in the archipelago.
Cole G. Brachmann, Tage Vowles, Riikka Rinnan, Mats P. Björkman, Anna Ekberg, and Robert G. Björk
Biogeosciences, 20, 4069–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4069-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4069-2023, 2023
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Herbivores change plant communities through grazing, altering the amount of CO2 and plant-specific chemicals (termed VOCs) emitted. We tested this effect by excluding herbivores and studying the CO2 and VOC emissions. Herbivores reduced CO2 emissions from a meadow community and altered VOC composition; however, community type had the strongest effect on the amount of CO2 and VOCs released. Herbivores can mediate greenhouse gas emissions, but the effect is marginal and community dependent.
Daniel Yazgi and Tinja Olenius
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5237–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5237-2023, 2023
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We present flexible tools to implement aerosol formation rate predictions in climate and chemical transport models. New-particle formation is a significant but uncertain factor affecting aerosol numbers and an active field within molecular modeling which provides data for assessing formation rates for different chemical species. We introduce tools to generate and interpolate formation rate lookup tables for user-defined data, thus enabling the easy inclusion and testing of formation schemes.
Gustav Strandberg, Jie Chen, Ralph Fyfe, Erik Kjellström, Johan Lindström, Anneli Poska, Qiong Zhang, and Marie-José Gaillard
Clim. Past, 19, 1507–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, 2023
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The impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago is studied using reconstructions and models. The results suggest that LULCC impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Reconstructed LULCC shows up to 1.5 °C higher temperature in parts of Europe in some seasons. This relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic LULCC that had occurred by the late prehistoric period may have already affected the European climate by 2500 years ago.
John Erik Engström, Lennart Wern, Sverker Hellström, Erik Kjellström, Chunlüe Zhou, Deliang Chen, and Cesar Azorin-Molina
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2259–2277, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2259-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2259-2023, 2023
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Newly digitized wind speed observations provide data from the time period from around 1920 to the present, enveloping one full century of wind measurements. The results of this work enable the investigation of the historical variability and trends in surface wind speed in Sweden for
the last century.
Anja Eichler, Michel Legrand, Theo M. Jenk, Susanne Preunkert, Camilla Andersson, Sabine Eckhardt, Magnuz Engardt, Andreas Plach, and Margit Schwikowski
The Cryosphere, 17, 2119–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2119-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2119-2023, 2023
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We investigate how a 250-year history of the emission of air pollutants (major inorganic aerosol constituents, black carbon, and trace species) is preserved in ice cores from four sites in the European Alps. The observed uniform timing in species-dependent longer-term concentration changes reveals that the different ice-core records provide a consistent, spatially representative signal of the pollution history from western European countries.
Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5605–5625, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, 2022
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Hydrological models projecting the impact of changing climate carry a lot of uncertainty. Thus, these models usually have a multitude of simulations using different future climate data. This study used the subjective opinion of experts to assess which climate and hydrological models are the most likely to correctly predict climate impacts, thereby easing the computational burden. The experts could select more likely hydrological models, while the climate models were deemed equally probable.
Petri Clusius, Carlton Xavier, Lukas Pichelstorfer, Putian Zhou, Tinja Olenius, Pontus Roldin, and Michael Boy
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7257–7286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7257-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7257-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric chemistry and aerosol processes form a dynamic and sensitively balanced system, and solving problems regarding air quality or climate requires detailed modelling and coupling of the processes. The models involved are often very complex to use. We have addressed this problem with the new ARCA box model. It puts much of the current knowledge of the nano- and microscale aerosol dynamics and chemistry into usable software and has the potential to become a valuable tool in the community.
Changgui Lin, Erik Kjellström, Renate Anna Irma Wilcke, and Deliang Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1197–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022, 2022
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This study endorses RCMs' added value on the driving GCMs in representing observed heat wave magnitudes. The future increase of heat wave magnitudes projected by GCMs is attenuated when downscaled by RCMs. Within the downscaling, uncertainties can be attributed almost equally to choice of RCMs and to the driving data associated with different GCMs. Uncertainties of GCMs in simulating heat wave magnitudes are transformed by RCMs in a complex manner rather than simply inherited.
Svetlana Tsyro, Wenche Aas, Augustin Colette, Camilla Andersson, Bertrand Bessagnet, Giancarlo Ciarelli, Florian Couvidat, Kees Cuvelier, Astrid Manders, Kathleen Mar, Mihaela Mircea, Noelia Otero, Maria-Teresa Pay, Valentin Raffort, Yelva Roustan, Mark R. Theobald, Marta G. Vivanco, Hilde Fagerli, Peter Wind, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Massimo D'Isidoro, and Mario Adani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7207–7257, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7207-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7207-2022, 2022
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Particulate matter (PM) air pollution causes adverse health effects. In Europe, the emissions caused by anthropogenic activities have been reduced in the last decades. To assess the efficiency of emission reductions in improving air quality, we have studied the evolution of PM pollution in Europe. Simulations with six air quality models and observational data indicate a decrease in PM concentrations by 10 % to 30 % across Europe from 2000 to 2010, which is mainly a result of emission reductions.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
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The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
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Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Erika Médus, Emma D. Thomassen, Danijel Belušić, Petter Lind, Peter Berg, Jens H. Christensen, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Jonas Olsson, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, 2022
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We evaluate the skill of a regional climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, to capture the present-day characteristics of heavy precipitation in the Nordic region and investigate the added value provided by a convection-permitting model version. The higher model resolution improves the representation of hourly heavy- and extreme-precipitation events and their diurnal cycle. The results indicate the benefits of convection-permitting models for constructing climate change projections over the region.
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022
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A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people, society, or the environment; major events in the study area include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. In the future, an increase in sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves, and phytoplankton blooms is expected, and a decrease in cold spells and severe ice winters is anticipated.
H. E. Markus Meier, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Cyril Dutheil, Florian Börgel, Kseniia Safonova, Ole B. Christensen, and Erik Kjellström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 159–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, 2022
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In addition to environmental pressures such as eutrophication, overfishing and contaminants, climate change is believed to have an important impact on the marine environment in the future, and marine management should consider the related risks. Hence, we have compared and assessed available scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea and found considerable uncertainties of the projections caused by the underlying assumptions and model biases, in particular for the water and biogeochemical cycles.
Ole Bøssing Christensen, Erik Kjellström, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, and Hans Eberhard Markus Meier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 133–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, 2022
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The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change, whose impacts could easily exacerbate biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. Models show a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the south during summer. New results improve estimates of future climate change.
Marcus Reckermann, Anders Omstedt, Tarmo Soomere, Juris Aigars, Naveed Akhtar, Magdalena Bełdowska, Jacek Bełdowski, Tom Cronin, Michał Czub, Margit Eero, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Anders Kiessling, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kuliński, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Michelle McCrackin, H. E. Markus Meier, Sonja Oberbeckmann, Kevin Parnell, Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Anneli Poska, Jarkko Saarinen, Beata Szymczycha, Emma Undeman, Anders Wörman, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, 2022
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As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities, others are completely human-induced, and they are all interrelated to different degrees. The findings from this study can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
Adrian Gustafson, Paul A. Miller, Robert G. Björk, Stefan Olin, and Benjamin Smith
Biogeosciences, 18, 6329–6347, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021, 2021
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We performed model simulations of vegetation change for a historic period and a range of climate change scenarios at a high spatial resolution. Projected treeline advance continued at the same or increased rates compared to our historic simulation. Temperature isotherms advanced faster than treelines, revealing a lag in potential vegetation shifts that was modulated by nitrogen availability. At the year 2100 projected treelines had advanced by 45–195 elevational metres depending on the scenario.
Håkan Pleijel, Jenny Klingberg, Michelle Nerentorp, Malin C. Broberg, Brigitte Nyirambangutse, John Munthe, and Göran Wallin
Biogeosciences, 18, 6313–6328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6313-2021, 2021
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Mercury is a problematic metal in the environment. It is crucial to understand the Hg circulation in ecosystems. We explored the mercury concentration in foliage from a diverse set of plants, locations and sampling periods to study the accumulation of Hg in leaves–needles over time. Mercury was always higher in older tissue: in broadleaved trees, conifers and wheat. Specific leaf area, the leaf area per unit leaf mass, turned out to be critical for Hg accumulation in leaves–needles.
Alexandra Pongracz, David Wårlind, Paul A. Miller, and Frans-Jan W. Parmentier
Biogeosciences, 18, 5767–5787, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021, 2021
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This study shows that the introduction of a multi-layer snow scheme in the LPJ-GUESS DGVM improved simulations of high-latitude soil temperature dynamics and permafrost extent compared to observations. In addition, these improvements led to shifts in carbon fluxes that contrasted within and outside of the permafrost region. Our results show that a realistic snow scheme is essential to accurately simulate snow–soil–vegetation relationships and carbon–climate feedbacks.
Mats Lindeskog, Benjamin Smith, Fredrik Lagergren, Ekaterina Sycheva, Andrej Ficko, Hans Pretzsch, and Anja Rammig
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6071–6112, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, 2021
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Forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle and for carbon storage. In Europe, forests are intensively managed. To understand how management influences carbon storage in European forests, we implement detailed forest management into the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We test the model by comparing model output to typical forestry measures, such as growing stock and harvest data, for different countries in Europe.
Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich, Jari Haapala, Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Stefan Hagemann, Jaromir Jakacki, Wilhelm May, H. E. Markus Meier, Paul A. Miller, Anna Rutgersson, and Lichuan Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 939–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, 2021
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Regional climate studies are typically pursued by single Earth system component models (e.g., ocean models and atmosphere models). These models are driven by prescribed data which hamper the simulation of feedbacks between Earth system components. To overcome this, models were developed that interactively couple model components and allow an adequate simulation of Earth system interactions important for climate. This article reviews recent developments of such models for the Baltic Sea region.
Camilla Geels, Morten Winther, Camilla Andersson, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Jørgen Brandt, Lise M. Frohn, Ulas Im, Wing Leung, and Jesper H. Christensen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12495–12519, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12495-2021, 2021
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In this study, we set up new shipping emissions scenarios and use two chemistry transport models and a health assessment model to assess the development of air quality and related health impacts in the Nordic region. Shipping alone is associated with about 850 premature deaths during present-day conditions, decreasing to approximately 550–600 cases in the 2050 scenarios.
Rafael Poyatos, Víctor Granda, Víctor Flo, Mark A. Adams, Balázs Adorján, David Aguadé, Marcos P. M. Aidar, Scott Allen, M. Susana Alvarado-Barrientos, Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira, Luiza Maria Aparecido, M. Altaf Arain, Ismael Aranda, Heidi Asbjornsen, Robert Baxter, Eric Beamesderfer, Z. Carter Berry, Daniel Berveiller, Bethany Blakely, Johnny Boggs, Gil Bohrer, Paul V. Bolstad, Damien Bonal, Rosvel Bracho, Patricia Brito, Jason Brodeur, Fernando Casanoves, Jérôme Chave, Hui Chen, Cesar Cisneros, Kenneth Clark, Edoardo Cremonese, Hongzhong Dang, Jorge S. David, Teresa S. David, Nicolas Delpierre, Ankur R. Desai, Frederic C. Do, Michal Dohnal, Jean-Christophe Domec, Sebinasi Dzikiti, Colin Edgar, Rebekka Eichstaedt, Tarek S. El-Madany, Jan Elbers, Cleiton B. Eller, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Brent Ewers, Patrick Fonti, Alicia Forner, David I. Forrester, Helber C. Freitas, Marta Galvagno, Omar Garcia-Tejera, Chandra Prasad Ghimire, Teresa E. Gimeno, John Grace, André Granier, Anne Griebel, Yan Guangyu, Mark B. Gush, Paul J. Hanson, Niles J. Hasselquist, Ingo Heinrich, Virginia Hernandez-Santana, Valentine Herrmann, Teemu Hölttä, Friso Holwerda, James Irvine, Supat Isarangkool Na Ayutthaya, Paul G. Jarvis, Hubert Jochheim, Carlos A. Joly, Julia Kaplick, Hyun Seok Kim, Leif Klemedtsson, Heather Kropp, Fredrik Lagergren, Patrick Lane, Petra Lang, Andrei Lapenas, Víctor Lechuga, Minsu Lee, Christoph Leuschner, Jean-Marc Limousin, Juan Carlos Linares, Maj-Lena Linderson, Anders Lindroth, Pilar Llorens, Álvaro López-Bernal, Michael M. Loranty, Dietmar Lüttschwager, Cate Macinnis-Ng, Isabelle Maréchaux, Timothy A. Martin, Ashley Matheny, Nate McDowell, Sean McMahon, Patrick Meir, Ilona Mészáros, Mirco Migliavacca, Patrick Mitchell, Meelis Mölder, Leonardo Montagnani, Georgianne W. Moore, Ryogo Nakada, Furong Niu, Rachael H. Nolan, Richard Norby, Kimberly Novick, Walter Oberhuber, Nikolaus Obojes, A. Christopher Oishi, Rafael S. Oliveira, Ram Oren, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Teemu Paljakka, Oscar Perez-Priego, Pablo L. Peri, Richard L. Peters, Sebastian Pfautsch, William T. Pockman, Yakir Preisler, Katherine Rascher, George Robinson, Humberto Rocha, Alain Rocheteau, Alexander Röll, Bruno H. P. Rosado, Lucy Rowland, Alexey V. Rubtsov, Santiago Sabaté, Yann Salmon, Roberto L. Salomón, Elisenda Sánchez-Costa, Karina V. R. Schäfer, Bernhard Schuldt, Alexandr Shashkin, Clément Stahl, Marko Stojanović, Juan Carlos Suárez, Ge Sun, Justyna Szatniewska, Fyodor Tatarinov, Miroslav Tesař, Frank M. Thomas, Pantana Tor-ngern, Josef Urban, Fernando Valladares, Christiaan van der Tol, Ilja van Meerveld, Andrej Varlagin, Holm Voigt, Jeffrey Warren, Christiane Werner, Willy Werner, Gerhard Wieser, Lisa Wingate, Stan Wullschleger, Koong Yi, Roman Zweifel, Kathy Steppe, Maurizio Mencuccini, and Jordi Martínez-Vilalta
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2607–2649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2607-2021, 2021
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Transpiration is a key component of global water balance, but it is poorly constrained from available observations. We present SAPFLUXNET, the first global database of tree-level transpiration from sap flow measurements, containing 202 datasets and covering a wide range of ecological conditions. SAPFLUXNET and its accompanying R software package
sapfluxnetrwill facilitate new data syntheses on the ecological factors driving water use and drought responses of trees and forests.
Gustav Strandberg and Petter Lind
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 181–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-181-2021, 2021
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Precipitation is a key climate variable with a large impact on society but also difficult to simulate as it depends largely on temporal and spatial scales. We look here at the effect of model resolution on precipitation in Europe, from coarse-scale global model to small-scale regional models. Higher resolution improves simulated precipitation generally, but individual models may over- or underestimate precipitation even at higher resolution.
Elena Barbaro, Krystyna Koziol, Mats P. Björkman, Carmen P. Vega, Christian Zdanowicz, Tonu Martma, Jean-Charles Gallet, Daniel Kępski, Catherine Larose, Bartłomiej Luks, Florian Tolle, Thomas V. Schuler, Aleksander Uszczyk, and Andrea Spolaor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3163–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3163-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3163-2021, 2021
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This paper shows the most comprehensive seasonal snow chemistry survey to date, carried out in April 2016 across 22 sites on 7 glaciers across Svalbard. The dataset consists of the concentration, mass loading, spatial and altitudinal distribution of major ion species (Ca2+, K+,
Na2+, Mg2+,
NH4+, SO42−,
Br−, Cl− and
NO3−), together with its stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope composition (δ18O and
δ2H) in the snowpack. This study was part of the larger Community Coordinated Snow Study in Svalbard.
Christian Zdanowicz, Jean-Charles Gallet, Mats P. Björkman, Catherine Larose, Thomas Schuler, Bartłomiej Luks, Krystyna Koziol, Andrea Spolaor, Elena Barbaro, Tõnu Martma, Ward van Pelt, Ulla Wideqvist, and Johan Ström
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3035–3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3035-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3035-2021, 2021
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Black carbon (BC) aerosols are soot-like particles which, when transported to the Arctic, darken snow surfaces, thus indirectly affecting climate. Information on BC in Arctic snow is needed to measure their impact and monitor the efficacy of pollution-reduction policies. This paper presents a large new set of BC measurements in snow in Svalbard collected between 2007 and 2018. It describes how BC in snow varies across the archipelago and explores some factors controlling these variations.
Anna Shcherbacheva, Tracey Balehowsky, Jakub Kubečka, Tinja Olenius, Tapio Helin, Heikki Haario, Marko Laine, Theo Kurtén, and Hanna Vehkamäki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15867–15906, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15867-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15867-2020, 2020
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Atmospheric new particle formation and cluster growth to aerosol particles is an important field of research, in particular due to the climate change phenomenon. Evaporation rates are very difficult to account for but they are important to explain the formation and growth of particles. Different quantum chemistry (QC) methods produce substantially different values for the evaporation rates. We propose a novel approach for inferring evaporation rates of clusters from available measurements.
Renate Anna Irma Wilcke, Erik Kjellström, Changgui Lin, Daniela Matei, Anders Moberg, and Evangelos Tyrlis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1107–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020, 2020
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Two long-lasting high-pressure systems in summer 2018 led to heat waves over Scandinavia and an extended summer period with devastating impacts on both agriculture and human life. Using five climate model ensembles, the unique 263-year Stockholm temperature time series and a composite 150-year time series for the whole of Sweden, we found that anthropogenic climate change has strongly increased the probability of a warm summer, such as the one observed in 2018, occurring in Sweden.
Cited articles
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Belušić, D., de Vries, H., Dobler, A., Landgren, O., Lind, P., Lindstedt, D., Pedersen, R. A., Sánchez-Perrino, J. C., Toivonen, E., van Ulft, B., Wang, F., Andrae, U., Batrak, Y., Kjellström, E., Lenderink, G., Nikulin, G., Pietikäinen, J.-P., Rodríguez-Camino, E., Samuelsson, P., van Meijgaard, E., and Wu, M.: HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1311–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020, 2020.
Bjorkman, A. D., García, C. M., Myers-Smith, I. H., Ravolainen, V., Svala Jónsdóttir, I., Westergaard, K. B., Lawler, J. P., Aronsson, M., Bennett, B., Gardfjell, H., Heiðmarsson, S., Stewart, L., and Normand, S.: Status and trends in Arctic vegetation: Evidence from experimental warming and long-term monitoring, Ambio, 49, 678–692, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01161-6, 2020.
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Short summary
The Fennoscandian boreal and mountain regions harbour a wide range of ecosystems sensitive to climate change. A new, highly resolved high-emission climate scenario enabled modelling of the vegetation development in this region at high resolution for the 21st century. The results show dramatic south to north and low- to high-altitude shifts of vegetation zones, especially for the open tundra environments, which will have large implications for nature conservation, reindeer husbandry and forestry.
The Fennoscandian boreal and mountain regions harbour a wide range of ecosystems sensitive to...
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