Articles | Volume 21, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024
Research article
 | 
05 Mar 2024
Research article |  | 05 Mar 2024

Kilometre-scale simulations over Fennoscandia reveal a large loss of tundra due to climate warming

Fredrik Lagergren, Robert G. Björk, Camilla Andersson, Danijel Belušić, Mats P. Björkman, Erik Kjellström, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Tinja Olenius, Håkan Pleijel, Gunhild Rosqvist, and Paul A. Miller

Related authors

Combining empirical and mechanistic understanding of spruce bark beetle outbreak dynamics in the LPJ-GUESS (v4.1, r13130) vegetation model
Fredrik Lagergren, Anna Maria Jönsson, Mats Lindeskog, and Thomas A. M. Pugh
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-239,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-239, 2025
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Accounting for forest management in the estimation of forest carbon balance using the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (v4.0, r9710): implementation and evaluation of simulations for Europe
Mats Lindeskog, Benjamin Smith, Fredrik Lagergren, Ekaterina Sycheva, Andrej Ficko, Hans Pretzsch, and Anja Rammig
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6071–6112, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, 2021
Short summary
Global transpiration data from sap flow measurements: the SAPFLUXNET database
Rafael Poyatos, Víctor Granda, Víctor Flo, Mark A. Adams, Balázs Adorján, David Aguadé, Marcos P. M. Aidar, Scott Allen, M. Susana Alvarado-Barrientos, Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira, Luiza Maria Aparecido, M. Altaf Arain, Ismael Aranda, Heidi Asbjornsen, Robert Baxter, Eric Beamesderfer, Z. Carter Berry, Daniel Berveiller, Bethany Blakely, Johnny Boggs, Gil Bohrer, Paul V. Bolstad, Damien Bonal, Rosvel Bracho, Patricia Brito, Jason Brodeur, Fernando Casanoves, Jérôme Chave, Hui Chen, Cesar Cisneros, Kenneth Clark, Edoardo Cremonese, Hongzhong Dang, Jorge S. David, Teresa S. David, Nicolas Delpierre, Ankur R. Desai, Frederic C. Do, Michal Dohnal, Jean-Christophe Domec, Sebinasi Dzikiti, Colin Edgar, Rebekka Eichstaedt, Tarek S. El-Madany, Jan Elbers, Cleiton B. Eller, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Brent Ewers, Patrick Fonti, Alicia Forner, David I. Forrester, Helber C. Freitas, Marta Galvagno, Omar Garcia-Tejera, Chandra Prasad Ghimire, Teresa E. Gimeno, John Grace, André Granier, Anne Griebel, Yan Guangyu, Mark B. Gush, Paul J. Hanson, Niles J. Hasselquist, Ingo Heinrich, Virginia Hernandez-Santana, Valentine Herrmann, Teemu Hölttä, Friso Holwerda, James Irvine, Supat Isarangkool Na Ayutthaya, Paul G. Jarvis, Hubert Jochheim, Carlos A. Joly, Julia Kaplick, Hyun Seok Kim, Leif Klemedtsson, Heather Kropp, Fredrik Lagergren, Patrick Lane, Petra Lang, Andrei Lapenas, Víctor Lechuga, Minsu Lee, Christoph Leuschner, Jean-Marc Limousin, Juan Carlos Linares, Maj-Lena Linderson, Anders Lindroth, Pilar Llorens, Álvaro López-Bernal, Michael M. Loranty, Dietmar Lüttschwager, Cate Macinnis-Ng, Isabelle Maréchaux, Timothy A. Martin, Ashley Matheny, Nate McDowell, Sean McMahon, Patrick Meir, Ilona Mészáros, Mirco Migliavacca, Patrick Mitchell, Meelis Mölder, Leonardo Montagnani, Georgianne W. Moore, Ryogo Nakada, Furong Niu, Rachael H. Nolan, Richard Norby, Kimberly Novick, Walter Oberhuber, Nikolaus Obojes, A. Christopher Oishi, Rafael S. Oliveira, Ram Oren, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Teemu Paljakka, Oscar Perez-Priego, Pablo L. Peri, Richard L. Peters, Sebastian Pfautsch, William T. Pockman, Yakir Preisler, Katherine Rascher, George Robinson, Humberto Rocha, Alain Rocheteau, Alexander Röll, Bruno H. P. Rosado, Lucy Rowland, Alexey V. Rubtsov, Santiago Sabaté, Yann Salmon, Roberto L. Salomón, Elisenda Sánchez-Costa, Karina V. R. Schäfer, Bernhard Schuldt, Alexandr Shashkin, Clément Stahl, Marko Stojanović, Juan Carlos Suárez, Ge Sun, Justyna Szatniewska, Fyodor Tatarinov, Miroslav Tesař, Frank M. Thomas, Pantana Tor-ngern, Josef Urban, Fernando Valladares, Christiaan van der Tol, Ilja van Meerveld, Andrej Varlagin, Holm Voigt, Jeffrey Warren, Christiane Werner, Willy Werner, Gerhard Wieser, Lisa Wingate, Stan Wullschleger, Koong Yi, Roman Zweifel, Kathy Steppe, Maurizio Mencuccini, and Jordi Martínez-Vilalta
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2607–2649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2607-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2607-2021, 2021
Short summary
The importance of micrometeorological variations for photosynthesis and transpiration in a boreal coniferous forest
G. Schurgers, F. Lagergren, M. Mölder, and A. Lindroth
Biogeosciences, 12, 237–256, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-237-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-237-2015, 2015

Related subject area

Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function: Terrestrial
Measuring and modeling waterlogging tolerance to predict the future for threatened lowland ash forests
Eric J. Gustafson, Dustin R. Bronson, Marcella A. Windmuller-Campione, Robert A. Slesak, and Deahn M. Donner
Biogeosciences, 22, 2499–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2499-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2499-2025, 2025
Short summary
Reviews and syntheses: Current perspectives on biosphere research 2024–2025 – eight findings from ecology, sociology, and economics
Friedrich J. Bohn, Ana Bastos, Romina Martin, Anja Rammig, Niak Sian Koh, Giles B. Sioen, Bram Buscher, Louise Carver, Fabrice DeClerck, Moritz Drupp, Robert Fletcher, Matthew Forrest, Alexandros Gasparatos, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Gregor Hagedorn, Martin C. Hänsel, Jessica Hetzer, Thomas Hickler, Cornelia B. Krug, Stasja Koot, Xiuzhen Li, Amy Luers, Shelby Matevich, H. Damon Matthews, Ina C. Meier, Mirco Migliavacca, Awaz Mohamed, Sungmin O, David Obura, Ben Orlove, Rene Orth, Laura Pereira, Markus Reichstein, Lerato Thakholi, Peter H. Verburg, and Yuki Yoshida
Biogeosciences, 22, 2425–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2425-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2425-2025, 2025
Short summary
Role of air–soil temperature in the leaf area index (LAI) course and role of height–diameter at breast height (DBH) in the maximum LAI during foliation of Platanus orientalis L. in an urban–rural greenway system
Melih Öztürk, Turgay Biricik, and Rıdvan Koruyan
Biogeosciences, 22, 2351–2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2351-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2351-2025, 2025
Short summary
Ecosystem leaf area, gross primary production, and evapotranspiration responses to wildfire in the Columbia River basin
Mingjie Shi, Nate McDowell, Huilin Huang, Faria Zahura, Lingcheng Li, and Xingyuan Chen
Biogeosciences, 22, 2225–2238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2225-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2225-2025, 2025
Short summary
Optimal set of leaf and aboveground tree elements for predicting forest functioning
Écio Souza Diniz, Eladio Rodríguez-Penedo, Roger Grau-Andrés, Jordi Vayreda, and Marcos Fernández-Martínez
Biogeosciences, 22, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2115-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2115-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Andersson, C., Langner, J., and Bergström, R.: Interannual variation and trends in air pollution over Europe due to climate variability during 1958–2001 simulated with a regional CTM coupled to the ERA40 reanalysis, Tellus B, 59, 77–98, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2006.00231.x, 2007. 
Andersson, C., Bergström, R., Bennet, C., Robertson, L., Thomas, M., Korhonen, H., Lehtinen, K. E. J., and Kokkola, H.: MATCH-SALSA – Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and CHemistry model coupled to the SALSA aerosol microphysics model – Part 1: Model description and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 171–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-171-2015, 2015. 
Andersson, C., Belusic, D., Kjellström, E., Lagergren, F., Lind, P., Lindstedt, D., Miller, P., and Olenius, T.: BioDiv-Support: Webtool dataset v1.0 (v1.0), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7573171, 2023. 
Andersson, C., Olenius, T., Alpfjord Wylde, H., Almroth Rosell, E., Björk, R. G., Björkman, M. P., Moldan, F., and Engardt, M.: Long-term reanalysis, future scenarios and impacts of nitrogen deposition on northern European ecosystems including the Baltic Sea and the Scandinavian Mountains, in preparation, 2024. 
Angelstam, P. and Kuuluvainen, T.: Boreal forest disturbance regimes, successional dynamics and landscape structures – a European perspective, Ecol. Bull., 51, 117–136, https://www.jstor.org/stable/20113303 (last access: 26 February 2024), 2004. 
Download
Short summary
The Fennoscandian boreal and mountain regions harbour a wide range of ecosystems sensitive to climate change. A new, highly resolved high-emission climate scenario enabled modelling of the vegetation development in this region at high resolution for the 21st century. The results show dramatic south to north and low- to high-altitude shifts of vegetation zones, especially for the open tundra environments, which will have large implications for nature conservation, reindeer husbandry and forestry.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint