Biogeosciences
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Articles | Volume 23, issue 12
Articles | Volume 23, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-4321-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-4321-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 23, issue 12
Research article
 | 
30 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 30 Jun 2026

Prediction of present and future spatial occurrence of cyanobacteria and the toxin nodularin in the Baltic Sea

Mohanad Abdelgadir, Bengt Karlson, Elin Dahlgren, and Malin Olofsson

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Short summary
The study integrated empirical Bayesian kriging, ensemble learning, and stacked species distribution modeling to study the distribution of cyanotoxin nodularin and toxin producer Nodularia spumigena. Area distribution of nodularin is determined by salinity, temperature, phosphate, nitrate-to-phosphate ratio, and distance from shore. Predictions show increased nodularin occurrences in the Eastern Gotland Sea, Northern Baltic Proper, southern parts of the Bothnian Sea, and Arkona Basin by 2100.
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