Research article
01 Oct 2015
Research article | 01 Oct 2015
Identifying climatic drivers of tropical forest dynamics
M. Aubry-Kientz1, V. Rossi2,3,4, F. Wagner2,5, and B. Hérault2
M. Aubry-Kientz et al.
M. Aubry-Kientz1, V. Rossi2,3,4, F. Wagner2,5, and B. Hérault2
- 1Université des Antilles et de la Guyane, UMR Ecologie des Forêts de Guyane, Campus agronomique de Kourou, Kourou, France
- 2CIRAD, UMR Ecologie des Forêts de Guyane, Campus agronomique de Kourou, Kourou, France
- 3CIRAD, UPR Bsef, Montpellier, France
- 4Université de Yaoundé I, UMMISCO (UMI209), BP337, Yaoundé, Cameroon
- 5Remote sensing division, National Institute for Space Research-INPE, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
- 1Université des Antilles et de la Guyane, UMR Ecologie des Forêts de Guyane, Campus agronomique de Kourou, Kourou, France
- 2CIRAD, UMR Ecologie des Forêts de Guyane, Campus agronomique de Kourou, Kourou, France
- 3CIRAD, UPR Bsef, Montpellier, France
- 4Université de Yaoundé I, UMMISCO (UMI209), BP337, Yaoundé, Cameroon
- 5Remote sensing division, National Institute for Space Research-INPE, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
Correspondence: B. Hérault (bruno.herault@cirad.fr)
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Received: 25 Nov 2014 – Discussion started: 11 Feb 2015 – Revised: 18 May 2015 – Accepted: 09 Sep 2015 – Published: 01 Oct 2015
In the context of climate change, identifying and then predicting the impacts of climatic drivers on tropical forest dynamics is becoming a matter of urgency. To look at these climate impacts, we used a coupled model of tropical tree growth and mortality, calibrated with forest dynamic data from the 20-year study site of Paracou, French Guiana, in order to introduce and test a set of climatic variables. Three major climatic drivers were identified through the variable selection procedure: drought, water saturation and temperature. Drought decreased annual growth and mortality rates, high precipitation increased mortality rates and high temperature decreased growth. Interactions between key functional traits, stature and climatic variables were investigated, showing best resistance to drought for trees with high wood density and for trees with small current diameters. Our results highlighted strong long-term impacts of climate variables on tropical forest dynamics, suggesting potential deep impacts of climate changes during the next century.