Articles | Volume 18, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 13 Dec 2021
| 13 Dec 2021
Nitrogen restricts future sub-arctic treeline advance in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model
Adrian Gustafson
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund
University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Centre for Environmental and Climate Science, Lund University,
Sölvegatan 37, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Paul A. Miller
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund
University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Centre for Environmental and Climate Science, Lund University,
Sölvegatan 37, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Robert G. Björk
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, P.O. Box 460,
405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, P.O. Box 461, 405 30
Gothenburg, Sweden
Stefan Olin
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund
University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Benjamin Smith
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund
University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University,
Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modelling managed forest ecosystems in Sweden: An evaluation from the stand to the regional scale J. Bergkvist et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110253
- Differences in surface–subsurface temperature regimes and soil moisture between vegetation types across a boreal-alpine ecotone A. Hensel & E. Ramtvedt https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2026.110337
- Disentangling future effects of climate change and forest disturbance on vegetation composition and land surface properties of the boreal forest L. Layritz et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3635-2025
- Temperature and nutrient availability influence radial growth of Picea abies at opposite slopes in a treeline ecotone H. Kuželová et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3807-2025
- Assessing Relationships Between Land Cover and Summer Local Climates in the Abisko Region, Northern Sweden R. Carry et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/app16031376
- Distinct changes in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycling in the litter layer across two contrasting forest–tundra ecotones F. Hagedorn et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2959-2025
- Borealization of tundra ecosystems with climate and land-use change M. Verdonen et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae2e18
- Advancing ecohydrological modelling: coupling LPJ-GUESS with ParFlow for integrated vegetation and surface-subsurface hydrology simulations Z. Jia et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1727-2026
- Fungal ecology at treelines C. Castaño et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.funeco.2025.101412
- Long-term reanalysis, future scenarios and impacts of nitrogen deposition on northern European ecosystems including the Baltic Sea and the Scandinavian Mountains C. Andersson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179083
- Climate Warming Benefits Plant Growth but Not Net Carbon Uptake: Simulation of Alaska Tundra and Needle Leaf Forest Using LPJ-GUESS C. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13050632
- Warming-induced contrasts in snow depth drive the future trajectory of soil carbon loss across the Arctic-Boreal region A. Pongracz et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01838-1
- Kilometre-scale simulations over Fennoscandia reveal a large loss of tundra due to climate warming F. Lagergren et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024
- High-latitude vegetation changes will determine future plant volatile impacts on atmospheric organic aerosols J. Tang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00463-7
- Fungi in treeline ecotones – Halting or causing abrupt ecosystem change? H. Ylänne et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.funeco.2024.101409
- Soil microbial resource limitation along a subarctic ecotone from birch forest to tundra heath M. Neurauter et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2022.108919
- Borealisation of Plant Communities in the Arctic Is Driven by Boreal‐Tundra Species M. García Criado et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70209
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modelling managed forest ecosystems in Sweden: An evaluation from the stand to the regional scale J. Bergkvist et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110253
- Differences in surface–subsurface temperature regimes and soil moisture between vegetation types across a boreal-alpine ecotone A. Hensel & E. Ramtvedt https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2026.110337
- Disentangling future effects of climate change and forest disturbance on vegetation composition and land surface properties of the boreal forest L. Layritz et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3635-2025
- Temperature and nutrient availability influence radial growth of Picea abies at opposite slopes in a treeline ecotone H. Kuželová et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3807-2025
- Assessing Relationships Between Land Cover and Summer Local Climates in the Abisko Region, Northern Sweden R. Carry et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/app16031376
- Distinct changes in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycling in the litter layer across two contrasting forest–tundra ecotones F. Hagedorn et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2959-2025
- Borealization of tundra ecosystems with climate and land-use change M. Verdonen et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae2e18
- Advancing ecohydrological modelling: coupling LPJ-GUESS with ParFlow for integrated vegetation and surface-subsurface hydrology simulations Z. Jia et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1727-2026
- Fungal ecology at treelines C. Castaño et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.funeco.2025.101412
- Long-term reanalysis, future scenarios and impacts of nitrogen deposition on northern European ecosystems including the Baltic Sea and the Scandinavian Mountains C. Andersson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179083
- Climate Warming Benefits Plant Growth but Not Net Carbon Uptake: Simulation of Alaska Tundra and Needle Leaf Forest Using LPJ-GUESS C. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13050632
- Warming-induced contrasts in snow depth drive the future trajectory of soil carbon loss across the Arctic-Boreal region A. Pongracz et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01838-1
- Kilometre-scale simulations over Fennoscandia reveal a large loss of tundra due to climate warming F. Lagergren et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024
- High-latitude vegetation changes will determine future plant volatile impacts on atmospheric organic aerosols J. Tang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00463-7
- Fungi in treeline ecotones – Halting or causing abrupt ecosystem change? H. Ylänne et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.funeco.2024.101409
- Soil microbial resource limitation along a subarctic ecotone from birch forest to tundra heath M. Neurauter et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2022.108919
- Borealisation of Plant Communities in the Arctic Is Driven by Boreal‐Tundra Species M. García Criado et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70209
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 30 Jul 2026
Short summary
We performed model simulations of vegetation change for a historic period and a range of climate change scenarios at a high spatial resolution. Projected treeline advance continued at the same or increased rates compared to our historic simulation. Temperature isotherms advanced faster than treelines, revealing a lag in potential vegetation shifts that was modulated by nitrogen availability. At the year 2100 projected treelines had advanced by 45–195 elevational metres depending on the scenario.
We performed model simulations of vegetation change for a historic period and a range of climate...
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