Articles | Volume 18, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 13 Dec 2021
| 13 Dec 2021
Nitrogen restricts future sub-arctic treeline advance in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model
Adrian Gustafson
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund
University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Centre for Environmental and Climate Science, Lund University,
Sölvegatan 37, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Paul A. Miller
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund
University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Centre for Environmental and Climate Science, Lund University,
Sölvegatan 37, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Robert G. Björk
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, P.O. Box 460,
405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, P.O. Box 461, 405 30
Gothenburg, Sweden
Stefan Olin
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund
University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Benjamin Smith
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund
University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University,
Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia
Related authors
No articles found.
Nikolina Mileva, Julia Pongratz, Vivek K. Arora, Akihiko Ito, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Sonali S. McDermid, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Roland Séférian, Yanwu Zhang, and Wolfgang Buermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2137–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2137-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Despite forests being so important for mitigating climate change, there are still uncertainties about how much the changes in forest cover contribute to the cooling/warming of the climate. Climate models and real-world observations often disagree about the magnitude and even the direction of these changes. We constrain climate models scenarios of widespread deforestation with satellite and in-situ data and show that models still have difficulties representing the movement of heat and water.
Prashant Paudel, Stefan Olin, Mark Tjoelker, Mikael Pontarp, Daniel Metcalfe, and Benjamin Smith
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4821, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
We employed a dynamic vegetation model with region-specific plant functional groups to investigate how plant communities evolve along the Himalayan elevation gradient. We found that competitive interactions shape vegetation at low elevations, while adaptation to stress from cold limits growth at high elevations. Our results show that this shift drives changes in plant diversity, structure, and productivity, as well as how climate and plant strategies together shape ecosystems across mountains.
Aurora Patchett, Louise Rütting, Tobias Rütting, Samuel Bodé, Sara Hallin, Jaanis Juhanson, C. Florian Stange, Mats P. Björkman, Pascal Boeckx, Gunhild Rosqvist, and Robert G. Björk
Biogeosciences, 22, 6841–6860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-6841-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-6841-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how different types of fungi and plant species affect nitrogen cycling in Arctic soils. By removing certain plants, we found that fungi associated with shrubs speed up nitrogen processes more than those with grasses. Dominant plant species enhance nitrogen recycling, while rare species increase nitrogen loss. These findings help predict how Arctic ecosystems respond to climate change, highlighting the importance of fungi and plant diversity in regulating ecosystem processes.
Prashant Paudel, Stefan Olin, Mark Tjoelker, Mikael Pontarp, Daniel Metcalfe, and Benjamin Smith
Biogeosciences, 22, 6153–6171, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-6153-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-6153-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ecological processes respond to changes in rainfall conditions. Competition and stress created by water availability are two primary components at two ends of the rainfall gradient. In wetter areas, plants compete for resources, while in drier regions, stress limits growth. The complex interaction between plant characters and their response to growth conditions governs ecosystem processes. These findings can be used to understand how future rainfall changes could impact ecosystems.
Chansopheaktra Sovann, Torbern Tagesson, Patrik Vestin, Sakada Sakhoeun, Soben Kim, Sothea Kok, and Stefan Olin
Biogeosciences, 22, 4649–4677, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4649-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4649-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We offer pairwise observed datasets that compare the characteristics of tropical ecosystems, specifically pristine forests, regrowth forests, and cashew plantations. Our findings uncover some key differences in their characteristics, emphasizing the influence of human activities on these ecosystems. By sharing our unique datasets, we hope to improve the knowledge of tropical forest ecosystems in Southeast Asia, advancing tropical research and tackling global environmental challenges.
Zitong Jia, Shouzhi Chen, Yongshuo H. Fu, David Martín Belda, David Wårlind, Stefan Olin, Chongyu Xu, and Jing Tang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4064, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater sustains vegetation and regulates land-atmosphere exchanges, but most Earth system models oversimplify its movement. Our study develops an integrated framework coupling LPJ-GUESS with the 3D hydrological model ParFlow to explicitly represent groundwater-vegetation interactions. Our results add to the evidence that three-dimensional groundwater flow strongly regulates water exchanges, and provides a powerful tool to improve simulations of water cycles in Earth system models.
Jalisha Theanutti Kallingal, Marko Scholze, Paul Anthony Miller, Johan Lindström, Janne Rinne, Mika Aurela, Patrik Vestin, and Per Weslien
Biogeosciences, 22, 4061–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4061-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We explored the possibilities of a Bayesian-based data assimilation algorithm to improve the wetland CH4 flux estimates by a dynamic vegetation model. By assimilating CH4 observations from 14 wetland sites, we calibrated model parameters and estimated large-scale annual emissions from northern wetlands. Our findings indicate that this approach leads to more reliable estimates of CH4 dynamics, which will improve our understanding of the climate change feedback from wetland CH4 emissions.
Jette Elena Stoebke, David Wårlind, Stefan Olin, Annemarie Eckes-Shephard, Bogdan Brzeziecki, Mikko Peltoniemi, and Thomas A. M. Pugh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2995, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forests are shaped by how trees compete for resources like sunlight. We improved a widely used vegetation model to better capture how light filters through the forest canopy, especially after tree death or harvesting. By assigning trees explicit positions, the model captures forest structure and change more realistically. This advances our understanding of tree competition and forest responses to management, providing a better tool to predict future forest dynamics.
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.21 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasize the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
Konstantin Gregor, Benjamin F. Meyer, Tillmann Gaida, Victor Justo Vasquez, Karina Bett-Williams, Matthew Forrest, João P. Darela-Filho, Sam Rabin, Marcos Longo, Joe R. Melton, Johan Nord, Peter Anthoni, Vladislav Bastrikov, Thomas Colligan, Christine Delire, Michael C. Dietze, George Hurtt, Akihiko Ito, Lasse T. Keetz, Jürgen Knauer, Johannes Köster, Tzu-Shun Lin, Lei Ma, Marie Minvielle, Stefan Olin, Sebastian Ostberg, Hao Shi, Reiner Schnur, Urs Schönenberger, Qing Sun, Peter E. Thornton, and Anja Rammig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1733, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Geoscientific models are crucial for understanding Earth’s processes. However, they sometimes do not adhere to highest software quality standards, and scientific results are often hard to reproduce due to the complexity of the workflows. Here we gather the expertise of 20 modeling groups and software engineers to define best practices for making geoscientific models maintainable, usable, and reproducible. We conclude with an open-source example serving as a reference for modeling communities.
Jianyong Ma, Almut Arneth, Benjamin Smith, Peter Anthoni, Xu-Ri, Peter Eliasson, David Wårlind, Martin Wittenbrink, and Stefan Olin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3131–3155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3131-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3131-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a powerful greenhouse gas mainly released from natural and agricultural soils. This study examines how global soil N2O emissions changed from 1961 to 2020 and identifies key factors driving these changes using an ecological model. The findings highlight croplands as the largest source, with factors like fertilizer use and climate change enhancing emissions. Rising CO2 levels, however, can partially mitigate N2O emissions through increased plant nitrogen uptake.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Müller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 323–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions, and upscaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara H. Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek Müller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Yi Xi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 22, 305–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change.
Chansopheaktra Sovann, Torbern Tagesson, Patrik Vestin, Sakada Sakhoeun, Soben Kim, Sothea Kok, and Stefan Olin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-98, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We offer pairwise observed datasets that compare the characteristics of tropical ecosystems, specifically pristine forests, regrowth forests, and cashew plantations. Our findings uncover some key differences in their characteristics, emphasizing the influence of human activities on these ecosystems. By sharing our unique datasets, we hope to improve the knowledge of tropical forest ecosystems in Southeast Asia, advancing tropical research, and tackling global environmental challenges.
Jalisha T. Kallingal, Johan Lindström, Paul A. Miller, Janne Rinne, Maarit Raivonen, and Marko Scholze
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2299–2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By unlocking the mysteries of CH4 emissions from wetlands, our work improved the accuracy of the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model using Bayesian statistics. Via assimilation of long-term real data from a wetland, we significantly enhanced CH4 emission predictions. This advancement helps us better understand wetland contributions to atmospheric CH4, which are crucial for addressing climate change. Our method offers a promising tool for refining global climate models and guiding conservation efforts
Fredrik Lagergren, Robert G. Björk, Camilla Andersson, Danijel Belušić, Mats P. Björkman, Erik Kjellström, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Tinja Olenius, Håkan Pleijel, Gunhild Rosqvist, and Paul A. Miller
Biogeosciences, 21, 1093–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Fennoscandian boreal and mountain regions harbour a wide range of ecosystems sensitive to climate change. A new, highly resolved high-emission climate scenario enabled modelling of the vegetation development in this region at high resolution for the 21st century. The results show dramatic south to north and low- to high-altitude shifts of vegetation zones, especially for the open tundra environments, which will have large implications for nature conservation, reindeer husbandry and forestry.
Jalisha Theanutti Kallingal, Marko Scholze, Paul Anthony Miller, Johan Lindström, Janne Rinne, Mika Aurela, Patrik Vestin, and Per Weslien
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-373, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Our study employs an Adaptive MCMC algorithm (GRaB-AM) to constrain process parameters in the wetlands emission module of the LPJ-GUESS model, using CH4 EC flux observations from 14 diverse wetlands. We aim to derive a single set of parameters capable of representing the diversity of northern wetlands. By reducing uncertainties in model parameters and improving simulation accuracy, our research contributes to more reliable projections of future wetland CH4 emissions and their climate impact.
Cole G. Brachmann, Tage Vowles, Riikka Rinnan, Mats P. Björkman, Anna Ekberg, and Robert G. Björk
Biogeosciences, 20, 4069–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4069-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4069-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Herbivores change plant communities through grazing, altering the amount of CO2 and plant-specific chemicals (termed VOCs) emitted. We tested this effect by excluding herbivores and studying the CO2 and VOC emissions. Herbivores reduced CO2 emissions from a meadow community and altered VOC composition; however, community type had the strongest effect on the amount of CO2 and VOCs released. Herbivores can mediate greenhouse gas emissions, but the effect is marginal and community dependent.
Jennifer A. Holm, David M. Medvigy, Benjamin Smith, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Claus Beier, Mikhail Mishurov, Xiangtao Xu, Jeremy W. Lichstein, Craig D. Allen, Klaus S. Larsen, Yiqi Luo, Cari Ficken, William T. Pockman, William R. L. Anderegg, and Anja Rammig
Biogeosciences, 20, 2117–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) are expected to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems. We present a road map of how dynamic vegetation models can explore extreme drought and climate change and assess ecological processes to measure and reduce model uncertainties. The models predict strong nonlinear responses to UCEs. Due to different model representations, the models differ in magnitude and trajectory of forest loss. Therefore, we explore specific plant responses that reflect knowledge gaps.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Andrew J. Pitman, Anna M. Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Bastien François, and Benjamin Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 549–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Studies analyzing the impact of the future climate on ecosystems employ climate projections simulated by global circulation models. These climate projections display biases that translate into significant uncertainty in projections of the future carbon cycle. Here, we test different methods to constrain the uncertainty in simulations of the carbon cycle over Australia. We find that all methods reduce the bias in the steady-state carbon variables but that temporal properties do not improve.
Qi Guan, Jing Tang, Lian Feng, Stefan Olin, and Guy Schurgers
Biogeosciences, 20, 1635–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding terrestrial sources of nitrogen is vital to examine lake eutrophication changes. Combining process-based ecosystem modeling and satellite observations, we found that land-leached nitrogen in the Yangtze Plain significantly increased from 1979 to 2018, and terrestrial nutrient sources were positively correlated with eutrophication trends observed in most lakes, demonstrating the necessity of sustainable nitrogen management to control eutrophication.
H. E. Markus Meier, Marcus Reckermann, Joakim Langner, Ben Smith, and Ira Didenkulova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 519–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports summarise the current state of knowledge on Earth system science in the Baltic Sea region. The 10 review articles focus on the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Some highlights of the results are presented here.
David Martín Belda, Peter Anthoni, David Wårlind, Stefan Olin, Guy Schurgers, Jing Tang, Benjamin Smith, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6709–6745, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a number of augmentations to the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS, which will allow us to use it in studies of the interactions between the land biosphere and the climate. The new module enables calculation of fluxes of energy and water into the atmosphere that are consistent with the modelled vegetation processes. The modelled fluxes are in fair agreement with observations across 21 sites from the FLUXNET network.
Johannes Oberpriller, Christine Herschlein, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Andreas Krause, Anja Rammig, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, and Florian Hartig
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6495–6519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding uncertainties of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyzed these across European forests. We find that uncertainties are dominantly induced by parameters related to water, mortality, and climate, with an increasing importance of climate from north to south. These results highlight that climate not only contributes uncertainty but also modifies uncertainties in other ecosystem processes.
Jianyong Ma, Sam S. Rabin, Peter Anthoni, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, Stefan Olin, Longlong Xia, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 19, 2145–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Improved agricultural management plays a vital role in protecting soils from degradation in eastern Africa. We simulated the impacts of seven management practices on soil carbon pools, nitrogen loss, and crop yield under different climate scenarios in this region. This study highlights the possibilities of conservation agriculture when targeting long-term environmental sustainability and food security in crop ecosystems, particularly for those with poor soil conditions in tropical climates.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Jianyong Ma, Stefan Olin, Peter Anthoni, Sam S. Rabin, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 815–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The implementation of the biological N fixation process in LPJ-GUESS in this study provides an opportunity to quantify N fixation rates between legumes and to better estimate grain legume production on a global scale. It also helps to predict and detect the potential contribution of N-fixing plants as
green manureto reducing or removing the use of N fertilizer in global agricultural systems, considering different climate conditions, management practices, and land-use change scenarios.
Alexandra Pongracz, David Wårlind, Paul A. Miller, and Frans-Jan W. Parmentier
Biogeosciences, 18, 5767–5787, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that the introduction of a multi-layer snow scheme in the LPJ-GUESS DGVM improved simulations of high-latitude soil temperature dynamics and permafrost extent compared to observations. In addition, these improvements led to shifts in carbon fluxes that contrasted within and outside of the permafrost region. Our results show that a realistic snow scheme is essential to accurately simulate snow–soil–vegetation relationships and carbon–climate feedbacks.
Mats Lindeskog, Benjamin Smith, Fredrik Lagergren, Ekaterina Sycheva, Andrej Ficko, Hans Pretzsch, and Anja Rammig
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6071–6112, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle and for carbon storage. In Europe, forests are intensively managed. To understand how management influences carbon storage in European forests, we implement detailed forest management into the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We test the model by comparing model output to typical forestry measures, such as growing stock and harvest data, for different countries in Europe.
Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich, Jari Haapala, Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Stefan Hagemann, Jaromir Jakacki, Wilhelm May, H. E. Markus Meier, Paul A. Miller, Anna Rutgersson, and Lichuan Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 939–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional climate studies are typically pursued by single Earth system component models (e.g., ocean models and atmosphere models). These models are driven by prescribed data which hamper the simulation of feedbacks between Earth system components. To overcome this, models were developed that interactively couple model components and allow an adequate simulation of Earth system interactions important for climate. This article reviews recent developments of such models for the Baltic Sea region.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Andrew J. Pitman, and Benjamin Smith
Biogeosciences, 18, 2181–2203, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2181-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) describes changes in the sea surface temperature patterns of the Pacific Ocean. This influences the global weather, impacting vegetation on land. There are two types of El Niño: central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP). In this study, we explored the long-term impacts on the carbon balance on land linked to the two El Niño types. Using a dynamic vegetation model, we simulated what would happen if only either CP or EP El Niño events had occurred.
Cited articles
Ainsworth, E. A. and Long, S. P.: What have we learned from 15 years of
free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of
photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2, New
Phytol., 165, 351–371, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2004.01224.x, 2005.
Barnekow, L.: Holocene tree-line dynamics and inferred climatic changes in
the Abisko area, nothern Sweden, based on macrofossil and pollen records,
The Holocene, 9, 253–265, 1999.
Batjes, N. H.: ISRIC-WISE global data ser of derived soil properties on a
0.5 by 0.5∘ grid (version 3.0), ISRIC – World Soil Information,
Wageningen, available at: http://data.isric.org/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/dc7b283a-8f19-45e1-aaed-e9bd515119bc (last access: 10 December 2021) 2005.
Berglund, B. E., Barnekow, L., Hammarlund, D., Sandgren, P., and Snowball,
I. F.: Holocene forest dynamics and climate changes in the Abisko area,
northern Sweden – the Sonesson model of vegetation history reconsidered and
confirmed, Ecol. Bull., 45, 15–30, 1996.
Bhatt, U. S., Walker, D. A., Raynolds, M. K., Comiso, J. C., Epstein, H. E.,
Jia, G., Gens, R., Pinzon, J. E., Tucker, C. J., Tweedie, C. E., and Webber,
P. J.: Circumpolar Arctic Tundra Vegetation Change Is Linked to Sea Ice
Decline, Earth Interact., 14, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010ei315.1, 2010.
Brown, C. D., Dufour-Tremblay, G., Jameson, R. G., Mamet, S. D., Trant, A.
J., Walker, X. J., Boudreau, S., Harper, K. A., Henry, G. H. R., Hermanutz,
L., Hofgaard, A., Isaeva, L., Kershaw, G. P., and Johnstone, J. F.:
Reproduction as a bottleneck to treeline advance across the circumarctic
forest tundra ecotone, Ecography, 42, 137–147, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.03733, 2018.
Bruhwiler, L., Parmentier, F.-J. W., Crill, P., Leonard, M., and Palmer, P.
I.: The Arctic Carbon Cycle and Its Response to Changing Climate, Curr.
Clim. Change Rep., 7, 14–34, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00169-5, 2021.
Buckeridge, K. M., Zufelt, E., Chu, H., and Grogan, P.: Soil nitrogen
cycling rates in low arctic shrub tundra are enhanced by litter feedbacks,
Plant Soil, 330, 407–421, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-009-0214-8, 2009.
Cairns, D. and Moen, J.: Herbivory Influences Tree Lines, J.
Ecol., 92, 1019–1024, 2004.
Callaghan, T. V., Jonasson, C., Thierfelder, T., Yang, Z., Hedenas, H.,
Johansson, M., Molau, U., Van Bogaert, R., Michelsen, A., Olofsson, J.,
Gwynn-Jones, D., Bokhorst, S., Phoenix, G., Bjerke, J. W., Tommervik, H.,
Christensen, T. R., Hanna, E., Koller, E. K., and Sloan, V. L.: Ecosystem
change and stability over multiple decades in the Swedish subarctic: complex
processes and multiple drivers, Philos. T. R. Soc. Lond. B, 368,
20120488, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0488, 2013.
Caswell, T. A., Droettboom, M., Lee, A., Sales de Andrade, E., Hoffmann, T., Hunter, J., Klymak, J., Firing, E., Stansby, D., Varoquaux, N., Nielsen, J. H., Root, B., May, R., Elson, P., Seppänen, J. K., Dale, D., Lee, J.-J., McDougall, D., Straw, A., Hobson, P., hannah, Gohlke, C., Vincent, A. F., Yu, T. S., Ma, E., Silvester, S., Moad, C., Kniazev, N., Ernest, E., and Ivanov, P.: matplotlib/matplotlib: REL: v3.5.0, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.592536, 2021.
Chapin, F. S., 3rd, Sturm, M., Serreze, M. C., McFadden, J. P., Key, J. R.,
Lloyd, A. H., McGuire, A. D., Rupp, T. S., Lynch, A. H., Schimel, J. P.,
Beringer, J., Chapman, W. L., Epstein, H. E., Euskirchen, E. S., Hinzman, L.
D., Jia, G., Ping, C. L., Tape, K. D., Thompson, C. D., Walker, D. A., and
Welker, J. M.: Role of land-surface changes in arctic summer warming,
Science, 310, 657–660, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1117368, 2005.
Chapin, F. S. I.: Direct and Indirect Effects of Temperature on Arctic
Plants, Polar Biol., 2, 47–52, 1983.
Clemmensen, K. E., Durling, M. B., Michelsen, A., Hallin, S., Finlay, R. D.,
and Lindahl, B. D.: A tipping point in carbon storage when forest expands
into tundra is related to mycorrhizal recycling of nitrogen, Ecol. Lett., 24,
1193–1204, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13735, 2021.
Cleveland, C. C., Townsend, A. R., Schimel, D. S., Fisher, H., Howarth, R.
W., Hedin, L. O., Perakis, S. S., Latty, E. F., Von Fischer, J. C.,
Elseroad, A., and Wasson, M. F.: Global patterns of terrestrial biological
nitrogen (N2) fixation in natural ecosystems, Global Biogeochem. Cy.,
13, 623–645, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999gb900014, 1999.
Dawes, M. A., Hagedorn, F., Handa, I. T., Streit, K., Ekblad, A., Rixen, C.,
Körner, C., and Hättenschwiler, S.: An alpine treeline in a carbon
dioxide-rich world: synthesis of a nine-year free-air carbon dioxide
enrichment study, Oecologia, 171, 623–637, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-012-2576-5, 2013.
Dusenge, M. E., Duarte, A. G., and Way, D. A.: Plant carbon metabolism and
climate change: elevated CO2 and temperature impacts on photosynthesis,
photorespiration and respiration, New Phytol., 221, 32–49, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15283,
2019.
Elmendorf, S. C., Henry, G. H. R., Hollister, R. D., Björk, R. G.,
Boulanger-Lapointe, N., Cooper, E. J., Cornelissen, J. H. C., Day, T. A.,
Dorrepaal, E., Elumeeva, T. G., Gill, M., Gould, W. A., Harte, J., Hik, D.
S., Hofgaard, A., Johnson, D. R., Johnstone, J. F., Jónsdóttir, I.
S., Jorgenson, J. C., Klanderud, K., Klein, J. A., Koh, S., Kudo, G., Lara,
M., Lévesque, E., Magnússon, B., May, J. L., Mercado-Díaz, J. A., Michelsen, A., Molau, U., Myers-Smith, I. H.,
Oberbauer, S. F., Onipchenko, V. G., Rixen, C., Martin Schmidt, N., Shaver,
G. R., Spasojevic, M. J., Þórhallsdóttir, Þ. E., Tolvanen,
A., Troxler, T., Tweedie, C. E., Villareal, S., Wahren, C.-H., Walker, X.,
Webber, P. J., Welker, J. M., and Wipf, S.: Plot-scale evidence of tundra
vegetation change and links to recent summer warming, Nat. Clim. Change,
2, 453–457, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1465, 2012.
Elson, P., Sales de Andrade, E., Lucas, G., May, R., Hattersley, R., Campbell, E., Dawson, A., Raynaud, S., scmc72, Little, B., Snow, A. D., Donkers, K., Blay, B., Killick, P., Wilson, N., Peglar, P., lbdreyer, Andrew, Szymaniak, J., Berchet, A., Bosley, C., Davis, L., Filipe, Krasting, J., Bradbury, M., Kirkham, D., stephenworsley, Clément, Caria, G., and Hedley, M.: SciTools/cartopy: v0.20.1, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1182735, 2021.
Emanuelsson, U.: Human Influence on Vegetation in the Torneträsk Area
during the Last Three Centuries, Ecol. Bullet., 38, 95–111, 1987.
Epstein, H. E., Kaplan, J. O., Lischke, H., and Yu, Q.: Simulating Future
Changes in Arctic and Subarctic Vegetation, Comput. Sci.
Eng., 9, 12–23, https://doi.org/10.1109/mcse.2007.84, 2007.
Epstein, H. E., Raynolds, M. K., Walker, D. A., Bhatt, U. S., Tucker, C. J.,
and Pinzon, J. E.: Dynamics of aboveground phytomass of the circumpolar
Arctic tundra during the past three decades, Environ. Res. Lett.,
7, 015506, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015506, 2012.
Fatichi, S., Pappas, C., Zscheischler, J., and Leuzinger, S.: Modelling
carbon sources and sinks in terrestrial vegetation, New Phytol., 221,
652–668, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15451, 2019.
Forbes, B. C., Fauria, M. M., and Zetterberg, P.: Russian Arctic warming and
“greening” are closely tracked by tundra shrub willows, Glob. Change
Biol., 16, 1542–1554, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02047.x, 2010.
Friend, A. D., Eckes-Shephard, A. H., Fonti, P., Rademacher, T. T.,
Rathgeber, C. B. K., Richardson, A. D., and Turton, R. H.: On the need to
consider wood formation processes in global vegetation models and a
suggested approach, Ann. Forest Sci., 76, 49, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-019-0819-x,
2019.
Gommers, R., Virtanen, P., Burovski, E., Oliphant, T. E., Weckesser, W., Cournapeau, D., alexbrc, Reddy, T., Peterson, P., Haberland, M., Wilson, J., Nelson, A., endolith, Mayorov, N., van der Walt, S., Polat, I., Laxalde, D., Brett, M., Larson, E., Millman, J., Lars, van Mulbregt, P., eric-jones, Carey, C. J., Moore, E., Kern, R., peterbell10, Leslie, T., Perktold, J., and Striega, K.: ScipPy python package, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.595738, 2021.
Grau, O., Ninot, J. M., Blanco-Moreno, J. M., van Logtestijn, R. S. P.,
Cornelissen, J. H. C., and Callaghan, T. V.: Shrub-tree interactions and
environmental changes drive treeline dynamics in the Subarctic, Oikos, 121,
1680–1690, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2011.20032.x, 2012.
Hallinger, M., Manthey, M., and Wilmking, M.: Establishing a missing link:
warm summers and winter snow cover promote shrub expansion into alpine
tundra in Scandinavia, New Phytol., 186, 890–899, 2010.
Harris, C. R., Millman, K. J., van der Walt, S. J., Gommers, R., Virtanen, P., Cournapeau, D., Wieser, E., Taylor, J., Berg, S., Smith, N. J., Kern, R., Picus, M., Hoyer, S., van Kerkwijk, M. H., Brett, M., Haldane, A., Fernández del Río, J., Wiebe, M., Peterson, P., Gérard-Marchant, P., Sheppard, K., Reddy, T., Weckesser, W., Abbasi, H., Gohlke, C., and Oliphant, T. E.: Array programming with NumPy, Nature, 585, 357–362, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2649-2, 2020.
Harsch, M. A., Hulme, P. E., McGlone, M. S., and Duncan, R. P.: Are
treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate
warming, Ecol. Lett., 12, 1040–1049, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01355.x, 2009.
Haxeltine, A. and Prentice, I. C.: A General Model for the Light-Use
Efficiency of Primary Production, Funct. Ecol., 10, 551–561,
https://doi.org/10.2307/2390165, 1996.
Hedenås, H., Olsson, H., Jonasson, C., Bergstedt, J., Dahlberg, U., and
Callaghan, T. V.: Changes in Tree Growth, Biomass and Vegetation Over a
13-Year Period in the Swedish Sub-Arctic, Ambio, 40, 672–682, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-011-0173-1, 2011.
Hengl, T., Mendes de Jesus, J., Heuvelink, G. B., Ruiperez Gonzalez, M.,
Kilibarda, M., Blagotic, A., Shangguan, W., Wright, M. N., Geng, X.,
Bauer-Marschallinger, B., Guevara, M. A., Vargas, R., MacMillan, R. A.,
Batjes, N. H., Leenaars, J. G., Ribeiro, E., Wheeler, I., Mantel, S., and
Kempen, B.: SoilGrids250m: Global gridded soil information based on machine
learning, PLoS One, 12, e0169748, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0169748, 2017.
Hickler, T., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., MjÖFors, K., Miller, P.,
Arneth, A., and Sykes, M. T.: CO2 fertilization in temperate FACE
experiments not representative of boreal and tropical forests, Glob. Change
Biol., 14, 1531–1542, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01598.x, 2008.
Hicks, L. C., Rousk, K., Rinnan, R., and Rousk, J.: Soil Microbial Responses
to 28 Years of Nutrient Fertilization in a Subarctic Heath, Ecosystems, 23,
1107–1119, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-019-00458-7, 2019.
Hoch, G. and Körner, C.: Global patterns of mobile carbon stores in
trees at the high-elevation tree line, Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr., 21,
861–871, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00731.x, 2012.
Hofgaard, A., Dalen, L., and Hytteborn, H.: Tree reqruitment above the
treeline and potential for climate-driven treeline change, J.
Veg. Sci., 20, 1133–1144, 2009.
Hofgaard, A., Harper, K. A., and Golubeva, E.: The role of the circumarctic
forest–tundra ecotone for Arctic biodiversity, Biodiversity, 13, 174–181, https://doi.org/10.1080/14888386.2012.700560, 2012.
Hofgaard, A., Ols, C., Drobyshev, I., Kirchhefer, A. J., Sandberg, S., and
Söderström, L.: Non-stationary Response of Tree Growth to Climate
Trends Along the Arctic Margin, Ecosystems, 22, 434–451, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-018-0279-4, 2019.
Holtmeier, F. K. and Broll, G. E.: Treeline advance – driving processes and
adverse factors, Landscape Online, 1, 1–33, https://doi.org/10.3097/lo.200701, 2007.
Josefsson, M.: The Geoecology of Subalpine Heaths in the Abisko Valley,
Northern Sweden, A study of periglacial conditions, Department of Physical
Geography, Uppsala University, Sweden, 180 pp., 1990.
Karlsson, P. S. and Weih, M.: Relationships between Nitrogen Economy and
Performance in the Mountain Birch Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa, Ecol.
Bull., 45, 71–78, 1996.
Kollas, C., Vitasse, Y., Randin, C. F., Hoch, G., and Korner, C.:
Unrestricted quality of seeds in European broad-leaved tree species growing
at the cold boundary of their distribution, Ann. Bot., 109, 473–480, https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcr299, 2012.
Kullman, L.: A richer, greener and smaller alpine world: review and
projection of warming-induced plant cover change in the Swedish Scandes,
Ambio, 39, 159–169, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-010-0021-8, 2010.
Kullman, L. and KjÄLlgren, L.: Holocene pine tree-line evolution in the
Swedish Scandes: Recent tree-line rise and climate change in a long-term
perspective, Boreas, 35, 159–168, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1502-3885.2006.tb01119.x, 2006.
Körner, C.: Carbon limitation in trees, J. Ecol., 91, 4–17,
2003.
Körner, C.: Paradigm shift in plant growth control, Curr. Opin. Plant
Biol., 25, 107–114, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pbi.2015.05.003, 2015.
Körner, C. and Paulsen, J.: A World-Wide Study of High Altitude Treeline
Temperatures, J. Biogeogr., 31, 713–732, 2004.
Körner, C., Basler, D., Hoch, G., Kollas, C., Lenz, A., Randin, C. F.,
Vitasse, Y., and Zimmermann, N. E.: Where, why and how? Explaining the
low-temperature range limits of temperate tree species, J. Ecol.,
104, 1079–1088, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12574, 2016.
Lamarque, J. F., Dentener, F., McConnell, J., Ro, C. U., Shaw, M., Vet, R.,
Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Dalsoren, S., Doherty, R., Faluvegi, G.,
Ghan, S. J., Josse, B., Lee, Y. H., MacKenzie, I. A., Plummer, D., Shindell,
D. T., Skeie, R. B., Stevenson, D. S., Strode, S., Zeng, G., Curran, M.,
Dahl-Jensen, D., Das, S., Fritzsche, D., and Nolan, M.: Multi-model mean
nitrogen and sulfur deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate
Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): evaluation of historical and
projected future changes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7997–8018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7997-2013, 2013.
Leuzinger, S., Manusch, C., Bugmann, H., and Wolf, A.: A sink-limited growth
model improves biomass estimation along boreal and alpine tree lines, Glob.
Ecol. Biogeogr., 22, 924–932, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12047, 2013.
LPJ-GUESS developers: LPJ-GUESS home page, available at: https://web.nateko.lu.se/lpj-guess/, last access: 10 December 2021.
McGuire, A. D., Anderson, L. G., Christensen, T. R., Dallimore, S., Guo, L.,
Hayes, D. J., Heimann, M., Lorenson, T. D., Macdonald, R. W., and Roulet,
N.: Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change,
Ecol. Monogr., 79, 523–555, https://doi.org/10.1890/08-2025.1, 2009.
McGuire, A. D., Christensen, T. R., Hayes, D., Heroult, A., Euskirchen, E.,
Kimball, J. S., Koven, C., Lafleur, P., Miller, P. A., Oechel, W., Peylin,
P., Williams, M., and Yi, Y.: An assessment of the carbon balance of Arctic
tundra: comparisons among observations, process models, and atmospheric
inversions, Biogeosciences, 9, 3185–3204, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-3185-2012, 2012.
Miller, P. A. and Smith, B.: Modelling tundra vegetation response to recent
arctic warming, Ambio, 41, 281–291, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0306-1, 2012.
Myers-Smith, I. H., Forbes, B. C., Wilmking, M., Hallinger, M., Lantz, T.,
Blok, D., Tape, K. D., Macias-Fauria, M., Sass-Klaassen, U., Lévesque,
E., Boudreau, S., Ropars, P., Hermanutz, L., Trant, A., Collier, L. S.,
Weijers, S., Rozema, J., Rayback, S. A., Schmidt, N. M., Schaepman-Strub,
G., Wipf, S., Rixen, C., Ménard, C. B., Venn, S., Goetz, S.,
Andreu-Hayles, L., Elmendorf, S., Ravolainen, V., Welker, J., Grogan, P.,
Epstein, H. E., and Hik, D. S.: Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems:
dynamics, impacts and research priorities, Environ. Res. Lett.,
6, 045509, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045509, 2011.
Myers-Smith, I. H., Elmendorf, S. C., Beck, P. S. A., Wilmking, M.,
Hallinger, M., Blok, D., Tape, K. D., Rayback, S. A., Macias-Fauria, M.,
Forbes, B. C., Speed, J. D. M., Boulanger-Lapointe, N., Rixen, C.,
Lévesque, E., Schmidt, N. M., Baittinger, C., Trant, A. J., Hermanutz,
L., Collier, L. S., Dawes, M. A., Lantz, T. C., Weijers, S., Jørgensen,
R. H., Buchwal, A., Buras, A., Naito, A. T., Ravolainen, V.,
Schaepman-Strub, G., Wheeler, J. A., Wipf, S., Guay, K. C., Hik, D. S., and
Vellend, M.: Climate sensitivity of shrub growth across the tundra biome,
Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 887–891, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2697, 2015.
Myers-Smith, I. H., Hik, D. S., and Aerts, R.: Climate warming as a driver
of tundra shrubline advance, J. Ecol., 106, 547–560, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12817, 2018.
Olsson, P.-O., Heliasz, M., Jin, H., and Eklundh, L.: Mapping the reduction
in gross primary productivity in subarctic birch forests due to insect
outbreaks, Biogeosciences, 14, 1703–1719, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1703-2017, 2017.
Ovhed, M. and Holmgren, B.: Modelling and measuring evapotranspiration in a
mountain birch forest, Ecol. Bull., 45, 31–44, 1996.
Parker, T. C., Sanderman, J., Holden, R. D., Blume-Werry, G., Sjogersten,
S., Large, D., Castro-Diaz, M., Street, L. E., Subke, J. A., and Wookey, P.
A.: Exploring drivers of litter decomposition in a greening Arctic: results
from a transplant experiment across a treeline, Ecology, 99, 2284–2294, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.2442, 2018.
Paulsen, J. and Körner, C.: A climate-based model to predict potential
treeline position around the globe, Alpine Bot., 124, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00035-014-0124-0, 2014.
Piao, S., Sitch, S., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Peylin, P., Wang, X.,
Ahlstrom, A., Anav, A., Canadell, J. G., Cong, N., Huntingford, C., Jung,
M., Levis, S., Levy, P. E., Li, J., Lin, X., Lomas, M. R., Lu, M., Luo, Y.,
Ma, Y., Myneni, R. B., Poulter, B., Sun, Z., Wang, T., Viovy, N., Zaehle,
S., and Zeng, N.: Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their
response to climate variability and to CO2 trends, Glob. Change Biol., 19,
2117–2132, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12187, 2013.
Pugh, T. A. M., Muller, C., Arneth, A., Haverd, V., and Smith, B.: Key
knowledge and data gaps in modelling the influence of CO2 concentration on
the terrestrial carbon sink, J. Plant Physiol., 203, 3–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jplph.2016.05.001, 2016.
Rees, W. G., Hofgaard, A., Boudreau, S., Cairns, D. M., Harper, K., Mamet,
S., Mathisen, I., Swirad, Z., and Tutubalina, O.: Is subarctic forest
advance able to keep pace with climate change?, Glob. Change Biol., 26,
3965–3977, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15113, 2020.
Rundqvist, S., Hedenås, H., Sandström, A., Emanuelsson, U.,
Eriksson, H., Jonasson, C., and Callaghan, T. V.: Tree and Shrub Expansion
Over the Past 34 Years at the Tree-Line Near Abisko, Sweden, Ambio, 40,
683–692, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-011-0174-0, 2011.
Scharn, R., Brachmann, C. G., Patchett, A., Reese, H., Bjorkman, A.,
Alatalo, J., Björk, R. G., Jägerbrand, A. K., Molau, U., and
Björkman, M. P.: Vegetation responses to 26 years of warming at
Latnjajaure Field Station, northern Sweden, Arctic Science, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2020-0042, 2021.
Scherrer, D., Vitasse, Y., Guisan, A., Wohlgemuth, T., Lischke, H., and
Gomez Aparicio, L.: Competition and demography rather than dispersal
limitation slow down upward shifts of trees' upper elevation limits in the
Alps, J. Ecol., 108, 2416–2430, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13451, 2020.
Serreze, M. C. and Barry, R. G.: Processes and impacts of Arctic
amplification: A research synthesis, Glob. Planet. Change, 77, 85–96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.004, 2011.
Shi, M., Fisher, J. B., Brzostek, E. R., and Phillips, R. P.: Carbon cost of
plant nitrogen acquisition: global carbon cycle impact from an improved
plant nitrogen cycle in the Community Land Model, Glob. Change Biol., 22,
1299–1314, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13131, 2016.
Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W.,
Kaplan, J. O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M. T., Thonicke, K., and
Venevsky, S.: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and
terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model,
Glob. Change Biol., 9, 161–185, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x, 2003.
Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., and Sykes, M. T.: Representation of vegetation
dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two
contrasting approaches within European climate space, Glob. Ecol.
Biogeogr., 10, 621–637, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1466-822X.2001.t01-1-00256.x, 2001.
Smith, B., Wårlind, D., Arneth, A., Hickler, T., Leadley, P., Siltberg,
J., and Zaehle, S.: Implications of incorporating N cycling and N
limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation
model, Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014.
Sturm, M.: Changing snow and shrub conditions affect albedo with global
implications, J. Geophys. Res., 110, G01004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jg000013,
2005.
Sturm, M., Holmgren, J., McFadden, J. P., Liston, G. E., Chapin, F. S., and
Racine, C. H.: Snow–Shrub Interactions in Arctic Tundra: A Hypothesis with
Climatic Implications, J. Clim., 14, 336–344, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0336:Ssiiat>2.0.Co;2, 2001.
Sullivan, P., Ellison, S., McNown, R., Brownlee, A., and Sveinbjörnsson,
B.: Evidence of soil nutrient availability as the proximate constraint on
growth of treeline trees in northwest Alaska, Ecology, 96, 716–727, 2015.
Sundqvist, M. K., Björk, R. G., and Molau, U.: Establishment of boreal
forest species in alpine dwarf-shrub heath in subarctic Sweden, Plant
Ecol. Div., 1, 67–75, https://doi.org/10.1080/17550870802273395, 2008.
Sveinbjörnsson, B., Nordell, O., and Kauhanen, H.: Nutrient relations of
mountain birch growth at and below the elevational tree-line in Swedish
Lapland, Funct. Ecol., 6, 213–220, 1992.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and
the Experiment Design, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93,
485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1, 2012.
The pandas development team: pandas-dev/pandas, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4309786, 2020.
Truong, C., Palme, A. E., and Felber, F.: Recent invasion of the mountain
birch Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa above the treeline due to climate
change: genetic and ecological study in northern Sweden, J. Evol. Biol., 20,
369–380, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1420-9101.2006.01190.x, 2007.
Van Bogaert, R., Haneca, K., Hoogesteger, J., Jonasson, C., De Dapper, M.,
and Callaghan, T. V.: A century of tree line changes in sub-Arctic Sweden
shows local and regional variability and only a minor influence of 20th
century climate warming, J. Biogeogr., 38, 907–921, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02453.x, 2011.
Virkkala, A. M., Aalto, J., Rogers, B. M., Tagesson, T., Treat, C. C.,
Natali, S. M., Watts, J. D., Potter, S., Lehtonen, A., Mauritz, M., Schuur,
E. A. G., Kochendorfer, J., Zona, D., Oechel, W., Kobayashi, H., Humphreys,
E., Goeckede, M., Iwata, H., Lafleur, P. M., Euskirchen, E. S., Bokhorst,
S., Marushchak, M., Martikainen, P. J., Elberling, B., Voigt, C., Biasi, C.,
Sonnentag, O., Parmentier, F. W., Ueyama, M., Celis, G., St Loius, V. L.,
Emmerton, C. A., Peichl, M., Chi, J., Jarveoja, J., Nilsson, M. B.,
Oberbauer, S. F., Torn, M. S., Park, S. J., Dolman, H., Mammarella, I.,
Chae, N., Poyatos, R., Lopez-Blanco, E., Rojle Christensen, T., Jung Kwon,
M., Sachs, T., Holl, D., and Luoto, M.: Statistical upscaling of ecosystem
CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: regional
patterns and uncertainties, Glob. Change Biol., 27, 4040–4059, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659, 2021.
Vowles, T., Lindwall, F., Ekblad, A., Bahram, M., Furneaux, B. R., Ryberg,
M., and Bjork, R. G.: Complex effects of mammalian grazing on extramatrical
mycelial biomass in the Scandes forest-tundra ecotone, Ecol. Evol., 8,
1019–1030, https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3657, 2018.
Wania, R., Ross, I., and Prentice, I. C.: Integrating peatlands and
permafrost into a dynamic global vegetation model: 1. Evaluation and
sensitivity of physical land surface processes, Global Biogeochem.
Cy., 23, GB3014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gb003412, 2009.
Wei, Y., Liu, S., Huntzinger, D. N., Michalak, A. M., Viovy, N., Post, W.
M., Schwalm, C. R., Schaefer, K., Jacobson, A. R., Lu, C., Tian, H.,
Ricciuto, D. M., Cook, R. B., Mao, J., and Shi, X.: The North American
Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison
Project – Part 2: Environmental driver data, Geosci. Model
Dev., 7, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2875-2014, 2014.
Weih, M. and Karlsson, S.: The nitrogen economy of mountain birch seedlings:
implications for winter survival, J. Ecol., 87, 211–219, 1999.
Wolf, A., Callaghan, T. V., and Larson, K.: Future changes in vegetation and
ecosystem function of the Barents Region, Climatic Change, 87, 51–73, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9342-4, 2008.
Yang, Z., Hanna, E., and Callaghan, T. V.: Modelling
surface-air-temperature variation over complex terrain around abisko,
swedish lapland: uncertainties of measurements and models at different
scales, Geogr. Ann. A, 93, 89–112, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0459.2011.00005.x, 2011.
Yang, Z., Hanna, E., Callaghan, T. V., and Jonasson, C.: How can
meteorological observations and microclimate simulations improve
understanding of 1913–2010 climate change around Abisko, Swedish Lapland?,
Meteorol. Appl., 19, 454–463, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.276, 2012.
Zhang, W., Miller, P. A., Smith, B., Wania, R., Koenigk, T., and
Döscher, R.: Tundra shrubification and tree-line advance amplify arctic
climate warming: results from an individual-based dynamic vegetation model,
Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034023, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034023, 2013.
Zhang, W., Jansson, C., Miller, P. A., Smith, B., and Samuelsson, P.:
Biogeophysical feedbacks enhance the Arctic terrestrial carbon sink in
regional Earth system dynamics, Biogeosciences, 11, 5503–5519, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5503-2014, 2014.
Zhang, W., Miller, P. A., Jansson, C., Samuelsson, P., Mao, J., and Smith,
B.: Self-Amplifying Feedbacks Accelerate Greening and Warming of the Arctic,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 7102–7111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl077830, 2018.
Short summary
We performed model simulations of vegetation change for a historic period and a range of climate change scenarios at a high spatial resolution. Projected treeline advance continued at the same or increased rates compared to our historic simulation. Temperature isotherms advanced faster than treelines, revealing a lag in potential vegetation shifts that was modulated by nitrogen availability. At the year 2100 projected treelines had advanced by 45–195 elevational metres depending on the scenario.
We performed model simulations of vegetation change for a historic period and a range of climate...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint