Articles | Volume 18, issue 23
Research article
13 Dec 2021
Research article |  | 13 Dec 2021

Nitrogen restricts future sub-arctic treeline advance in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

Adrian Gustafson, Paul A. Miller, Robert G. Björk, Stefan Olin, and Benjamin Smith

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Cited articles

Ainsworth, E. A. and Long, S. P.: What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2, New Phytol., 165, 351–371,, 2005. 
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Berglund, B. E., Barnekow, L., Hammarlund, D., Sandgren, P., and Snowball, I. F.: Holocene forest dynamics and climate changes in the Abisko area, northern Sweden – the Sonesson model of vegetation history reconsidered and confirmed, Ecol. Bull., 45, 15–30, 1996. 
Bhatt, U. S., Walker, D. A., Raynolds, M. K., Comiso, J. C., Epstein, H. E., Jia, G., Gens, R., Pinzon, J. E., Tucker, C. J., Tweedie, C. E., and Webber, P. J.: Circumpolar Arctic Tundra Vegetation Change Is Linked to Sea Ice Decline, Earth Interact., 14, 1–20,, 2010. 
Short summary
We performed model simulations of vegetation change for a historic period and a range of climate change scenarios at a high spatial resolution. Projected treeline advance continued at the same or increased rates compared to our historic simulation. Temperature isotherms advanced faster than treelines, revealing a lag in potential vegetation shifts that was modulated by nitrogen availability. At the year 2100 projected treelines had advanced by 45–195 elevational metres depending on the scenario.
Final-revised paper