Articles | Volume 20, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Sarah E. Chadburn
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Eleanor J. Burke
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Simon Jones
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Andy J. Wiltshire
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Peter M. Cox
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
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Cited
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Representation of the terrestrial carbon cycle in CMIP6 B. Gier et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024
- Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation P. Friedlingstein et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1480208
- A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME) C. Mathison et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025
- Unprotected carbon dominates decadal soil carbon increase M. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57354-z
- Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of soil organic carbon storage in the Yangtze River Basin under climate change and land use scenarios Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42832-025-0345-8
- Increased plant productivity exacerbates subsoil carbon losses under warming via nitrogen mining M. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01697-1
- A New Method for Characterising Carbon Cycle Sensitivities in Earth System Models P. Cox et al. https://doi.org/10.16993/tellus.4128
- Conditions for instability in the climate–carbon cycle system J. Clarke et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025
- Air and soil warming have different effects on soil organic carbon storage Z. Luo et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03367-5
- Anticipating Shifts in American Beech Distribution in a Changing Climate E. Selvi et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70010
- Land use-induced soil carbon loss in the dry tropics nearly offsets gains in northern lands H. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64929-3
- Depth-resolved spatiotemporal differentiation and controls of soil organic carbon across karst and non-karst landscapes in Southwest China X. Deng et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2026.110076
- Northern high latitudes could become a net carbon source below 2 °C global warming R. Varney et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-913-2026
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Representation of the terrestrial carbon cycle in CMIP6 B. Gier et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024
- Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation P. Friedlingstein et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1480208
- A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME) C. Mathison et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025
- Unprotected carbon dominates decadal soil carbon increase M. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57354-z
- Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of soil organic carbon storage in the Yangtze River Basin under climate change and land use scenarios Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42832-025-0345-8
- Increased plant productivity exacerbates subsoil carbon losses under warming via nitrogen mining M. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01697-1
- A New Method for Characterising Carbon Cycle Sensitivities in Earth System Models P. Cox et al. https://doi.org/10.16993/tellus.4128
- Conditions for instability in the climate–carbon cycle system J. Clarke et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025
- Air and soil warming have different effects on soil organic carbon storage Z. Luo et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03367-5
- Anticipating Shifts in American Beech Distribution in a Changing Climate E. Selvi et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70010
- Land use-induced soil carbon loss in the dry tropics nearly offsets gains in northern lands H. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64929-3
- Depth-resolved spatiotemporal differentiation and controls of soil organic carbon across karst and non-karst landscapes in Southwest China X. Deng et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2026.110076
- Northern high latitudes could become a net carbon source below 2 °C global warming R. Varney et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-913-2026
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 25 Aug 2026
Short summary
This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system...
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