Articles | Volume 20, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023
Research article
 | 
19 Sep 2023
Research article |  | 19 Sep 2023

Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming

Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox

Related authors

A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME)
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Soil carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP6 Earth system models
Rebecca M. Varney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 21, 2759–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, 2024
Short summary
Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
Consistency of global carbon budget between concentration- and emission-driven historical experiments simulated by CMIP6 Earth system models and suggestions for improved simulation of CO2 concentration
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
Biogeosciences, 22, 1447–1473, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Selecting allometric equations to estimate forest biomass from plot- rather than individual-level predictive performance
Nicolas Picard, Noël Fonton, Faustin Boyemba Bosela, Adeline Fayolle, Joël Loumeto, Gabriel Ngua Ayecaba, Bonaventure Sonké, Olga Diane Yongo Bombo, Hervé Martial Maïdou, and Alfred Ngomanda
Biogeosciences, 22, 1413–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1413-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1413-2025, 2025
Short summary
Impact of winter warming on CO2 fluxes in evergreen needleleaf forests
Mana Gharun, Ankit Shekhar, Lukas Hörtnagl, Luana Krebs, Nicola Arriga, Mirco Migliavacca, Marilyn Roland, Bert Gielen, Leonardo Montagnani, Enrico Tomelleri, Ladislav Šigut, Matthias Peichl, Peng Zhao, Marius Schmidt, Thomas Grünwald, Mika Korkiakoski, Annalea Lohila, and Nina Buchmann
Biogeosciences, 22, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1393-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1393-2025, 2025
Short summary
Effects of pH/pCO2 fluctuations on photosynthesis and fatty acid composition of two marine diatoms, with reference to consequences of coastal acidification
Yu Shang, Jingmin Qiu, Yuxi Weng, Xin Wang, Di Zhang, Yuwei Zhou, Juntian Xu, and Futian Li
Biogeosciences, 22, 1203–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1203-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1203-2025, 2025
Short summary
Long-term impacts of global temperature stabilization and overshoot on exploited marine species
Anne L. Morée, Fabrice Lacroix, William W. L. Cheung, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 22, 1115–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Arora, V. and Boer, G.: Uncertainties in the 20th century carbon budget associated with land use change, Glob. Change Biol., 16, 3327–3348, 2010. a
Arora, V., Boer, G., Christian, J., Curry, C., Denman, K., Zahariev, K., Flato, G., Scinocca, J., Merryfield, W., and Lee, W.: The effect of terrestrial photosynthesis down regulation on the twentieth-century carbon budget simulated with the CCCma Earth System Model, J. Climate, 22, 6066–6088, 2009. a
Arora, V. K., Boer, G. J., Friedlingstein, P., Eby, M., Jones, C. D., Christian, J. R., Bonan, G., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., et al.: Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth system models, J. Climate, 26, 5289–5314, 2013. a, b
Arora, V. K., Katavouta, A., Williams, R. G., Jones, C. D., Brovkin, V., Friedlingstein, P., Schwinger, J., Bopp, L., Boucher, O., Cadule, P., Chamberlain, M. A., Christian, J. R., Delire, C., Fisher, R. A., Hajima, T., Ilyina, T., Joetzjer, E., Kawamiya, M., Koven, C. D., Krasting, J. P., Law, R. M., Lawrence, D. M., Lenton, A., Lindsay, K., Pongratz, J., Raddatz, T., Séférian, R., Tachiiri, K., Tjiputra, J. F., Wiltshire, A., Wu, T., and Ziehn, T.: Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Bentsen, M., Bethke, I., Debernard, J. B., Iversen, T., Kirkevåg, A., Seland, Ø., Drange, H., Roelandt, C., Seierstad, I. A., Hoose, C., and Kristjánsson, J. E.: The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 687–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013, 2013. a
Short summary
This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint