Biogeosciences
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Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
Research article
 | 
31 Jan 2023
Research article |  | 31 Jan 2023

Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections

Morgan Sparey, Peter Cox, and Mark S. Williamson

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Latest update: 14 May 2025
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Short summary
Accurate climate models are vital for mitigating climate change; however, projections often disagree. Using Köppen–Geiger bioclimate classifications we show that CMIP6 climate models agree well on the fraction of global land surface that will change classification per degree of global warming. We find that 13 % of land will change climate per degree of warming from 1 to 3 K; thus, stabilising warming at 1.5 rather than 2 K would save over 7.5 million square kilometres from bioclimatic change.
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