Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
Research article
31 Jan 2023
Research article |  | 31 Jan 2023

Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections

Morgan Sparey, Peter Cox, and Mark S. Williamson

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Cited articles

Argles, A. P. K., Moore, J. R., and Cox, P. M.: Dynamic Global Vegetation Models: Searching for the balance between demographic process representation and computational tractability, PLOS Climate, 1, 1–18,, 2022. a
Beck, H. E., Zimmermann, N. E., McVicar, T. R., Vergopolan, N., Berg, A., and Wood, E. F.: Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution, Sci. Data, 5, 180214,, 2018. a, b
Boisvert-Marsh, L., Périé, C., and Blois, S. D.: Shifting with climate? Evidence for recent changes in tree species distribution at high latitudes, Ecosphere, 5, 23,, 2014. a
Boucher, O., Denvil, S., Levavasseur, G., Cozic, A., Caubel, A., Foujols, M.-A., Meurdesoif, Y., Cadule, P., Devilliers, M., Ghattas, J., Lebas, N., Lurton, T., Mellul, L., Musat, I., Mignot, J., and Cheruy, F.: IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical,, 2018. a
Boucher, O., Denvil, S., Levavasseur, G., Cozic, A., Caubel, A., Foujols, M.-A., Meurdesoif, Y., Cadule, P., Devilliers, M., Dupont, E., and Lurton, T.: IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp585,, 2019. a
Short summary
Accurate climate models are vital for mitigating climate change; however, projections often disagree. Using Köppen–Geiger bioclimate classifications we show that CMIP6 climate models agree well on the fraction of global land surface that will change classification per degree of global warming. We find that 13 % of land will change climate per degree of warming from 1 to 3 K; thus, stabilising warming at 1.5 rather than 2 K would save over 7.5 million square kilometres from bioclimatic change.
Final-revised paper