Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-279-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-279-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 17 Jan 2024
| 17 Jan 2024
A global fuel characteristic model and dataset for wildfire prediction
Joe R. McNorton
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Research Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, RG45AJ, UK
Francesca Di Giuseppe
Forecast Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, RG45AJ, UK
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Cited
32 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Fuel availability versus flammability: divergent fire controls across Eurasian drylands H. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71598-3
- Evaluating the performance of spectral indices and meteorological variables as indicators of live fuel moisture content in Mediterranean shrublands M. Alicia Arcos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112894
- Assessing fire danger classes and extreme thresholds of the Canadian Fire Weather Index across global environmental zones: a review L. Kudláčková et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad97cf
- Enhancing seasonal fire predictions with hybrid dynamical and random forest models M. Torres-Vázquez et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00069-4
- Field measurement of fine fuels' moisture content and its relation to meteorology and wildfire activity in the Central Region of Portugal (2000-2024) D. Alves et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pyro.2026.100008
- Modeling Natural Forest Fire Regimes Based on Drought Characteristics at Various Spatial and Temporal Scales in P. R. China X. Shao et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16071041
- Compounding preconditions of wildfires vary in time and space within Europe J. Miller et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02955-1
- Global data-driven prediction of fire activity F. Di Giuseppe et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58097-7
- An adaptable dead fuel moisture model for various fuel types and temporal scales tailored for wildfire danger assessment N. Perello et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106254
- Lightning-ignited wildfire prediction in the boreal forest of northeast China C. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104948
- An assessment of aerial firefighting response times between agencies during the 2020 fire season in California S. Magstadt et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106105
- Probability and spatiotemporal dynamics of active fire occurrence in Inner Mongolia, China from 2000 to 2022 X. Jia et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-025-0027-5
- Megafires in Mediterranean Europe: the compound role of fire weather and drought F. Ghasemiazma et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00197-5
- Examining the Transferability of Remote-Sensing-Based Models of Live Fuel Moisture Content for Predicting Wildfire Characteristics E. Guk et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2024.3445138
- Biomass burning emission estimation in the MODIS era: State-of-the-art and future directions M. Parrington et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2024.00089
- State of Wildfires 2024–2025 D. Kelley et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5377-2025
- Conversion from coniferous to broadleaved trees can make European forests more climate-effective Y. Yao et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64580-y
- Convective potential and fuel availability complement near-surface weather in regulating global wildfire activity H. Su et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adp7765
- State of Wildfires 2023–2024 M. Jones et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024
- Relevance of earth observations of essential climate variables in wildfire adaptation S. Seitzinger et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2025.115082
- Deep learning for wildfire risk prediction: Integrating remote sensing and environmental data Z. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2025.06.002
- Comparative evaluation of RF and GBT models for dead fuel moisture estimation and fuel-type-specific drivers under drought conditions in Central Yunnan, China Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2025.123458
- Prediction and key drivers analysis of forest surface Dead Fine Fuel Moisture Content: A stacking ensemble learning and IoT-based system Y. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2025.100937
- Effects of simulated drought on C/N/P stoichiometry and lignin decomposition dynamics in the deadwood–soil system temperate forests A. Górski et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.181244
- Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian ocean dipole on wildfire across the Indian forests A. Prabhakaran & P. Srivastava https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07937-2
- A Comparative Review of Wildfire Danger Rating Systems: Focus on Fuel Moisture Modeling Frameworks S. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17040486
- Climatic and Topographic Factors Driving Large Wildfires: Decision Tree-Based Risk Mapping in South Korea C. Kim et al. https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2026.26.1.177
- A Near-Real-Time Operational Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) Product to Support Decision-Making at the National Level A. Benali et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire8050178
- Seasonal prediction of live fuel moisture content F. Santos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pyro.2026.100010
- A Comprehensive Survey of Satellite-Based Wildfire Indicators and Spatiotemporal Modeling Approaches: Past, Present, and Future S. Nurdiati et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth7040121
- The global drivers of wildfire O. Haas et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1438262
- A hybrid framework to estimate live fuel moisture content through land surface modelling F. Santos et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-025-02561-2
32 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Fuel availability versus flammability: divergent fire controls across Eurasian drylands H. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71598-3
- Evaluating the performance of spectral indices and meteorological variables as indicators of live fuel moisture content in Mediterranean shrublands M. Alicia Arcos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112894
- Assessing fire danger classes and extreme thresholds of the Canadian Fire Weather Index across global environmental zones: a review L. Kudláčková et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad97cf
- Enhancing seasonal fire predictions with hybrid dynamical and random forest models M. Torres-Vázquez et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00069-4
- Field measurement of fine fuels' moisture content and its relation to meteorology and wildfire activity in the Central Region of Portugal (2000-2024) D. Alves et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pyro.2026.100008
- Modeling Natural Forest Fire Regimes Based on Drought Characteristics at Various Spatial and Temporal Scales in P. R. China X. Shao et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16071041
- Compounding preconditions of wildfires vary in time and space within Europe J. Miller et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02955-1
- Global data-driven prediction of fire activity F. Di Giuseppe et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58097-7
- An adaptable dead fuel moisture model for various fuel types and temporal scales tailored for wildfire danger assessment N. Perello et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106254
- Lightning-ignited wildfire prediction in the boreal forest of northeast China C. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104948
- An assessment of aerial firefighting response times between agencies during the 2020 fire season in California S. Magstadt et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106105
- Probability and spatiotemporal dynamics of active fire occurrence in Inner Mongolia, China from 2000 to 2022 X. Jia et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-025-0027-5
- Megafires in Mediterranean Europe: the compound role of fire weather and drought F. Ghasemiazma et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00197-5
- Examining the Transferability of Remote-Sensing-Based Models of Live Fuel Moisture Content for Predicting Wildfire Characteristics E. Guk et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2024.3445138
- Biomass burning emission estimation in the MODIS era: State-of-the-art and future directions M. Parrington et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2024.00089
- State of Wildfires 2024–2025 D. Kelley et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5377-2025
- Conversion from coniferous to broadleaved trees can make European forests more climate-effective Y. Yao et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64580-y
- Convective potential and fuel availability complement near-surface weather in regulating global wildfire activity H. Su et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adp7765
- State of Wildfires 2023–2024 M. Jones et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024
- Relevance of earth observations of essential climate variables in wildfire adaptation S. Seitzinger et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2025.115082
- Deep learning for wildfire risk prediction: Integrating remote sensing and environmental data Z. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2025.06.002
- Comparative evaluation of RF and GBT models for dead fuel moisture estimation and fuel-type-specific drivers under drought conditions in Central Yunnan, China Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2025.123458
- Prediction and key drivers analysis of forest surface Dead Fine Fuel Moisture Content: A stacking ensemble learning and IoT-based system Y. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2025.100937
- Effects of simulated drought on C/N/P stoichiometry and lignin decomposition dynamics in the deadwood–soil system temperate forests A. Górski et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.181244
- Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian ocean dipole on wildfire across the Indian forests A. Prabhakaran & P. Srivastava https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07937-2
- A Comparative Review of Wildfire Danger Rating Systems: Focus on Fuel Moisture Modeling Frameworks S. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17040486
- Climatic and Topographic Factors Driving Large Wildfires: Decision Tree-Based Risk Mapping in South Korea C. Kim et al. https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2026.26.1.177
- A Near-Real-Time Operational Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) Product to Support Decision-Making at the National Level A. Benali et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire8050178
- Seasonal prediction of live fuel moisture content F. Santos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pyro.2026.100010
- A Comprehensive Survey of Satellite-Based Wildfire Indicators and Spatiotemporal Modeling Approaches: Past, Present, and Future S. Nurdiati et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth7040121
- The global drivers of wildfire O. Haas et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1438262
- A hybrid framework to estimate live fuel moisture content through land surface modelling F. Santos et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-025-02561-2
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 31 Jul 2026
Short summary
Wildfires have wide-ranging consequences for local communities, air quality and ecosystems. Vegetation amount and moisture state are key components to forecast wildfires. We developed a combined model and satellite framework to characterise vegetation, including the type of fuel, whether it is alive or dead, and its moisture content. The daily data is at high resolution globally (~9 km). Our characteristics correlate with active fire data and can inform fire danger and spread modelling efforts.
Wildfires have wide-ranging consequences for local communities, air quality and ecosystems....
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