Articles | Volume 21, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5539-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5539-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Understanding and simulating cropland and non-cropland burning in Europe using the BASE (Burnt Area Simulator for Europe) model
Matthew Forrest
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberg – Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research, Frankfurt, Germany
Jessica Hetzer
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberg – Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research, Frankfurt, Germany
Maik Billing
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Simon P. K. Bowring
Laboratoire de Géologie, Département de Géosciences, Ecole Normale Supérieure (ENS), Paris, France
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), IPSL-CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Eric Kosczor
Institute of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
Luke Oberhagemann
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Oliver Perkins
Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, The Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society, London, UK
Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK
Dan Warren
Gulbali Institute, School of Agricultural, Environmentall, and Veterinary Sciences, Charles Sturt University, Thurgoona, Australia
Environmental Science and Informatics Section, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology, Onna-son, Okinawa, Japan
Fátima Arrogante-Funes
Department of Geology, Geography and Environment, Universidad de Alcala, Alcalá de Henares, Spain
Kirsten Thonicke
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Thomas Hickler
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberg – Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research, Frankfurt, Germany
Department of Physical Geography, Johann Wolfgang Goethe University of Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany
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Cited
6 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Development of a statistical model for global burned area simulation within a DGVM-compatible framework B. Kavhu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7001-2025
- Influence of global climate modes on wildfire occurrence in the contiguous United States under recent and future climates T. Keeping et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07998-w
- Abundance and morphology of microscopic charcoal in modern marine sediments to refine the interpretation of paleofire records in the Western Mediterranean region M. Genet et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qsa.2026.100333
- Reviews and syntheses: Current perspectives on biosphere research 2024–2025 – eight findings from ecology, sociology, and economics F. Bohn et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2425-2025
- Subsoils, but not toeslopes, store millennia-old PyC in a gently sloping catchment under temperate climate after centuries of cultivation J. Lebrun Thauront et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-155-2026
- Compounding preconditions of wildfires vary in time and space within Europe J. Miller et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02955-1
6 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Development of a statistical model for global burned area simulation within a DGVM-compatible framework B. Kavhu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7001-2025
- Influence of global climate modes on wildfire occurrence in the contiguous United States under recent and future climates T. Keeping et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07998-w
- Abundance and morphology of microscopic charcoal in modern marine sediments to refine the interpretation of paleofire records in the Western Mediterranean region M. Genet et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qsa.2026.100333
- Reviews and syntheses: Current perspectives on biosphere research 2024–2025 – eight findings from ecology, sociology, and economics F. Bohn et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2425-2025
- Subsoils, but not toeslopes, store millennia-old PyC in a gently sloping catchment under temperate climate after centuries of cultivation J. Lebrun Thauront et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-155-2026
- Compounding preconditions of wildfires vary in time and space within Europe J. Miller et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02955-1
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 08 Jul 2026
Short summary
Climate change is causing an increase in extreme wildfires in Europe, but drivers of fire are not well understood, especially across different land cover types. We used statistical models with satellite data, climate data, and socioeconomic data to determine what affects burning in cropland and non-cropland areas of Europe. We found different drivers of burning in cropland burning vs. non-cropland to the point that some variables, e.g. population density, had the complete opposite effects.
Climate change is causing an increase in extreme wildfires in Europe, but drivers of fire are...
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