Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-975-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-975-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Climate-driven shifts in Southern Ocean primary producers and biogeochemistry in CMIP6 models
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
now at: The Lyell Centre for Earth and Marine Sciences and Technology, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Alex J. Poulton
The Lyell Centre for Earth and Marine Sciences and Technology, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Michael P. Meredith
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Kimberlee Baldry
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, College of Sciences and Engineering, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
Oscar Schofield
Center for Ocean Observing Leadership, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA
Sian F. Henley
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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Total article views: 3,577 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Cited
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Effects of ocean acidification on fatty acid composition in the Antarctic snail Neobuccinum eatoni N. Servetto et al.
- Complexity in biogeochemical models: consequences for the biological carbon pump J. Rogerson et al.
- Survey coverage impacts ability to detect and predict zooplankton population change J. Conroy et al.
- Evaluating the performance of CMIP6 models in simulating Southern Ocean biogeochemistry M. Cheng et al.
- Three-component models for the detection of phytoplankton size classes in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean: Insights into climate-driven community shifts S. Pandi et al.
- Estimation of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions and Absorption by Land and Ocean Surfaces in the 21st Century A. Olchev
- Antarctic phytoplankton communities restructure under shifting sea-ice regimes A. Hayward et al.
- Inter-annual variability of phytoplankton and subsurface chlorophyll in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean: evidence from austral summers 2018 and 2020 S. Athirpankandi et al.
- Decadal increase in phytoplankton community photoprotective pigments associated with shoaling mixed layers along a warming West Antarctic Peninsula Q. Diou‐Cass et al.
- Observing the Southern Ocean carbon cycle from the skies S. Mikaloff-Fletcher
- Bridging Carbon Isotopes and Fluorometry: In-situ Insights into Phytoplankton Productivity in the Southern Ocean A. Kerkar et al.
- Climate-driven degradation of marine foraging habitats for Adélie penguins in the Antarctic Peninsula H. Liu et al.
- Future changes in the influence of the Southern Annular Mode on South Pacific chlorophyll-a in the CESM2 large ensemble J. Yoon et al.
- Intensifying precipitation over the Southern Ocean challenges reanalysis-based climate estimates – Insights from Macquarie Island's 45-year record Z. Kong et al.
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Effects of ocean acidification on fatty acid composition in the Antarctic snail Neobuccinum eatoni N. Servetto et al.
- Complexity in biogeochemical models: consequences for the biological carbon pump J. Rogerson et al.
- Survey coverage impacts ability to detect and predict zooplankton population change J. Conroy et al.
- Evaluating the performance of CMIP6 models in simulating Southern Ocean biogeochemistry M. Cheng et al.
- Three-component models for the detection of phytoplankton size classes in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean: Insights into climate-driven community shifts S. Pandi et al.
- Estimation of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions and Absorption by Land and Ocean Surfaces in the 21st Century A. Olchev
- Antarctic phytoplankton communities restructure under shifting sea-ice regimes A. Hayward et al.
- Inter-annual variability of phytoplankton and subsurface chlorophyll in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean: evidence from austral summers 2018 and 2020 S. Athirpankandi et al.
- Decadal increase in phytoplankton community photoprotective pigments associated with shoaling mixed layers along a warming West Antarctic Peninsula Q. Diou‐Cass et al.
- Observing the Southern Ocean carbon cycle from the skies S. Mikaloff-Fletcher
- Bridging Carbon Isotopes and Fluorometry: In-situ Insights into Phytoplankton Productivity in the Southern Ocean A. Kerkar et al.
- Climate-driven degradation of marine foraging habitats for Adélie penguins in the Antarctic Peninsula H. Liu et al.
- Future changes in the influence of the Southern Annular Mode on South Pacific chlorophyll-a in the CESM2 large ensemble J. Yoon et al.
- Intensifying precipitation over the Southern Ocean challenges reanalysis-based climate estimates – Insights from Macquarie Island's 45-year record Z. Kong et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 24 May 2026
Short summary
The Southern Ocean is a rapidly warming environment, with subsequent impacts on ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling. This study examines changes in phytoplankton and biogeochemistry using a range of climate models. Under climate change, the Southern Ocean will be warmer, more acidic and more productive and will have reduced nutrient availability by 2100. However, there is substantial variability between models across key productivity parameters. We propose ways of reducing this uncertainty.
The Southern Ocean is a rapidly warming environment, with subsequent impacts on ecosystems and...
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