Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2729-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2729-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Apr 2026
Research article |
| 21 Apr 2026
| 21 Apr 2026
Soil moisture-induced changes in land carbon sink projections in CMIP6
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Laibao Liu
Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
Sonia I. Seneviratne
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Related authors
No articles found.
Yann Yasser Haddad, Elena Raycheva, Jonas Savelsberg, Petra Sieber, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-448, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Hydropower is vital for the energy transition, but planning is hard without knowing where the water flowing through its infrastructure comes from. We introduce an open-access dataset detailing the hydropower infrastructure and connecting it to its local hydrological basins. The water inflows into reservoirs and run-of-river power plants are estimated using this tool, revealing large regional differences. This dataset can directly inform reliable and resilient energy transition planning.
Matthias Cuntz, Stephan Thober, Anne Verhoef, Yijian Zeng, Aaron Boone, Agnès Ducharne, Sujan Koirala, David M. Lawrence, Philipp de Vrese, Carsten Montzka, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Harry Vereecken, Dani Or, Salma Tafasca, Naoki Mizukami, Rich Ellis, Patrick C. McGuire, and Lukas Gudmundsson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4223, 2026
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface models (LSMs) are essential tools to analyze future climate change. Here we pushed state-of-the-art LSMs out of their comfort zone revealing hidden connections between processes encoded into the models. The LSMs reacted differently due to complex, sometimes counter-intuitive interactions of different water fluxes. We identified surface runoff and soil evaporation as the two main reasons behind model differences, which should be improved by using more mechanistic descriptions.
Martin Hirschi, Dominik Michel, Dominik L. Schumacher, Wolfgang Preimesberger, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 4855–4870, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-4855-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-4855-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Drier summers and more frequent droughts were experienced in Switzerland in the last two decades. We present a comprehensive set of in situ soil moisture measurements from the Swiss Soil Moisture Experiment (SwissSMEX) network, covering the period 2010–2025. We document recent measures that have been taken to secure the network and its long-term time series. We use this curated data to analyse reported drying trends.
Victoria M. Bauer, Mathias Hauser, Yann Quilcaille, Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 5669–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5669-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5669-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
MESMER is a Python-based climate emulator that provides spatially resolved realizations of multiple climate variables. Version 1.0.0 of MESMER consolidates previous emulation methods into one numerically stable, well-documented, and user-friendly software package. It can generate large ensembles of annual and monthly mean temperatures, as well as several climate extreme indicators, within minutes. The software is shared together with pre-calibrated parameters to enable broad community adoption.
Piers M. Forster, Tristram Walsh, Chris Smith, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie M. Andrew, Chris Atkinson, Richard A. Betts, Antonio Bombelli, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Helen E. Claxton, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas L. Frölicher, Catia M. Domingues, Thomas Gasser, Catherine H. Gregory, Rachel M. Hoesly, Daniel Huppmann, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, Alexia Karwat, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Jean-François Lamarque, Aurélien Liné, Belén Martín-Míguez, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Pino Mussak, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Steven J. Smith, Ghassan Taha, Caterina Tassone, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Marco Zecchetto, Junting Zhong, Xiao-Ye Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We give our annual update of key climate indicators. Our work quantifies the human contribution to global warming and the pace of climate change. This represents a large effort by the international community akin to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Michael Gregory Windisch, Yann Quilcaille, Camilla Mathison, Claudia Tebaldi, Eleanor Burke, Laila Gohar, Chris Smith, Sarah Schöngart, Abigail Snyder, Siddarth Durga, Kalyn Dorheim, and Sonia Seneviratne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2253, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Creating consistent climate scenarios remains challenging. The computational cost of comprehensive climate models leaves most scenarios without spatial climate outcomes, limiting feedback between climate consequences and scenario assumptions. We apply three spatial emulators to test their potential and current limitations in rapidly translating scenarios into spatial outcomes to identify regional risks, fill gaps in scenario coverage, and feed climate consequences back into scenario assumptions.
Ke Yu, Yang Su, Philippe Ciais, Ronny Lauerwald, David Makowski, Tianqi Shi, Shengbiao Wu, Petra Sieber, Chuanlong Zhou, and Daniel Goll
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-219, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Bare soil reflectance affects surface energy exchange in agricultural systems, but its field-scale variability is still poorly known. Using satellite observations and machine learning, we examined spatiotemporal variations of bare soil reflectance across European croplands. We show that it varies with soil properties, soil moisture, and observation geometry. These results suggest that dynamic soil reflectance should be taken into account in surface energy balance studies of agroecosystems.
Hao Pan, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 73–83, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-73-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-73-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Existing regional climate model (RCM) emulators mainly provide deterministic emulations, while internal RCM variability is typically not represented. We develop MESMER-RCM, a probabilistic RCM emulator for annual 2-m temperature, using a simple and physically interpretable approach. We demonstrate its ability to emulate both RCM trends and internal variability in a high-dimensional spatial setting, where existing approaches typically struggle.
Peter W. Thorne, John M. Nicklas, John J. Kennedy, Bruce Calvert, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Mark T. Richardson, Adrian Simmons, Ed Hawkins, Robert Rhode, Kathryn Cowtan, Nerilie J. Abram, Axel Andersson, Simon Noone, Phillipe Marbaix, Nathan Lenssen, Dirk Olonscheck, Tristram Walsh, Stephen Outten, Ingo Bethke, Bjorn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Anna Pirani, Jan Fuglestvedt, Lavanya Rajamani, Richard A. Betts, Elizabeth C. Kent, Blair Trewin, Colin Morice, Tim Osborn, Samantha N. Burgess, Oliver Geden, Andrew Parnell, Piers M. Forster, Chris Hewitt, Zeke Hausfather, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Jochem Marotzke, Nathan Gillett, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Gavin A. Schmidt, Duo Chan, Stefan Brönnimann, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Menne, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Christopher Kadow, Peter Huybers, David B. Stephenson, Emily Wallis, Joeri Rogelj, Andrew Schurer, Karen McKinnon, Panmao Zhai, Fatima Driouech, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Saeed Vazifehkhah, Sophie Szopa, Christopher J. Merchant, Shoji Hirahara, Masayoshi Ishii, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Qingxiang Li, June-Yi Lee, Alex J. Cannon, Christophe Cassou, Karina von Schuckmann, Amir H. Delju, and Ellie Murtagh
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We reassess the basis for determining the present level of long-term global warming. Unbiased estimates of both realised warming and anthropogenic warming are possible that approximate a 20-year retrospective mean. Our resulting estimates of 1.40 [1.23–1.58] °C (realised) and 1.34 [1.18–1.50] °C (anthropogenic) as at end of 2024 highlight the urgency of immediate, far-reaching and sustained climate mitigation actions if we are to meet the long term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
Simon Scheiter, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Louis Francois, Matthew Forrest, Alexandra Henrot, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Sonia Seneviratne, Jörg Steinkamp, Wim Thiery, Wenfang Xu, and Thomas Hickler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-221, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Our study shows how climate change may reshape the world's major biomes, such as forests, grasslands, and tundra. Using dynamic vegetation models, machine learning and real-world observations, we found that many biomes are likely to shift toward the poles as temperatures rise. Even under low-emission scenarios, large areas could change. These results help identify regions most susceptible to climate change and support global efforts to protect and manage natural ecosystems in the future.
Stefanie Börsig, Dominik L. Schumacher, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4968, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4968, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework aligning regional climate projections with IPCC-constrained global warming trajectories and current-generation global climate model regional responses. We adjust regional simulations while preserving cross-variable consistency and spatial coherence. Applied to European weather extremes, we update existing high-resolution climate projections to ensure consistency with IPCC latest assessment report estimates and underlying global climate models.
Zhongwang Wei, Qingchen Xu, Fan Bai, Xionghui Xu, Zixin Wei, Wenzong Dong, Hongbin Liang, Nan Wei, Xingjie Lu, Lu Li, Shupeng Zhang, Hua Yuan, Laibao Liu, and Yongjiu Dai
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 6517–6540, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6517-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6517-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface models are used for simulating how Earth's surface interacts with the atmosphere. As models grow more complex and detailed, researchers need better tools to evaluate their performance. OpenBench, a new software system that makes the evaluation process more comprehensive and efficient, stands out by incorporating various factors and working with data at any scale, enabling scientists to incorporate new types of models and measurements as our understanding of Earth's systems evolves.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Lara Aleluia Reis, Robbie M. Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Jiddu A. Broersma, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Catia M. Domingues, Marco Gambarini, Thomas Gasser, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Aurélien Liné, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Jan C. Minx, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2641–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets to track real-world changes over time. To make our work relevant to policymakers, we follow methods from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the IPCC assessment.
Basil Kraft, Michael Schirmer, William H. Aeberhard, Massimiliano Zappa, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1061–1082, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study reconstructs daily runoff in Switzerland (1962–2023) using a deep-learning model, providing a spatially contiguous dataset on a medium-sized catchment grid. The model outperforms traditional hydrological methods, revealing shifts in Swiss water resources, including more frequent dry years and declining summer runoff. The reconstruction is publicly available.
Martin Hirschi, Pietro Stradiotti, Bas Crezee, Wouter Dorigo, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 397–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-397-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-397-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the potential of long-term satellite and reanalysis products for characterising soil drying by analysing their 2000–2022 soil moisture trends and their representation of agroecological drought events of this period. Soil moisture trends are globally diverse and partly contradictory between products. This also affects the products' drought-detection capacity. Based on the best-estimate products, consistent soil drying is observed over more than 40 % of the land area covered.
Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Shruti Nath, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8283–8320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and temperature are two of the most impact-relevant climatic variables. Yet, projecting future precipitation and temperature data under different emission scenarios relies on complex models that are computationally expensive. In this study, we propose a method that allows us to generate monthly means of local precipitation and temperature at low computational costs. Our modelling framework is particularly useful for all downstream applications of climate model data.
Felix Jäger, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, Michael Windisch, Jonathan Doelman, Stefan Frank, Mykola Gusti, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Christoph Müller, Kanishka Balu Narayan, Ryan Sebastian Padrón, Alexander Popp, Detlef van Vuuren, Michael Wögerer, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1055–1071, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change mitigation strategies developed with socioeconomic models rely on the widespread (re)planting of trees to limit global warming below 2°. However, most of these models neglect climate-driven shifts in forest damage like fires. By assessing existing mitigation scenarios, we show the exposure of projected forestation areas to fire-promoting weather conditions. Our study highlights the problem of ignoring climate-driven shifts in forest damage and ways to address it.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 265–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in land use are crucial to achieve lower global warming. However, despite their importance, the effects of these changes on moisture fluxes are poorly understood. We analyse land cover and management scenarios in three climate models involving cropland expansion, afforestation, and irrigation. Results show largely consistent influences on moisture fluxes, with cropland expansion causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation show the opposite.
Dominik L. Schumacher, Mariam Zachariah, Friederike Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Dorothy Heinrich, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Mathias Hauser, Martin Hirschi, Verena Bessenbacher, Lukas Gudmundsson, Hiroko K. Beaudoing, Matthew Rodell, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Luke J. Harrington, Flavio Lehner, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 131–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2022 summer was accompanied by widespread soil moisture deficits, including an unprecedented drought in Europe. Combining several observation-based estimates and models, we find that such an event has become at least 5 and 20 times more likely due to human-induced climate change in western Europe and the northern extratropics, respectively. Strong regional warming fuels soil desiccation; hence, projections indicate even more potent future droughts as we progress towards a 2 °C warmer world.
Yann Quilcaille, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1333–1362, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are powerful tools, but they have high computational costs, hindering their use in exploring future climate extremes. We demonstrate MESMER-X, the only existing emulator for spatial climate extremes (heatwaves, fires, droughts) that mimics all of their relevant properties. Thanks to its negligible computational cost, MESMER-X may greatly accelerate the exploration of future climate extremes or enable the integration of climate extremes in economic and financial models.
Shruti Nath, Lukas Gudmundsson, Jonas Schwaab, Gregory Duveiller, Steven J. De Hertog, Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Carl F. Schleussner, Wim Thiery, and Quentin Lejeune
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4283–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tree cover changes play a significant role in climate mitigation and adaptation. Their regional impacts are key in informing national-level decisions and prioritising areas for conservation efforts. We present a first step towards exploring these regional impacts using a simple statistical device, i.e. emulator. The emulator only needs to train on climate model outputs representing the maximal impacts of aff-, re-, and deforestation, from which it explores plausible in-between outcomes itself.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 629–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occur and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Yann Quilcaille, Fulden Batibeniz, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Ryan S. Padrón, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2153–2177, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2153-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new database of four annual fire weather indicators over 1850–2100 and over all land areas. In a 3°C warmer world with respect to preindustrial times, the mean fire weather would increase on average by at least 66% in both intensity and duration and even triple for 1-in-10-year events. The dataset is a freely available resource for fire danger studies and beyond, highlighting that the best course of action would require limiting global warming as much as possible.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and management changes can affect the climate and water availability. In this study we use climate model simulations of extreme global land cover changes (afforestation, deforestation) and land management changes (irrigation) to understand the effects on the global water cycle and local to continental water availability. We show that cropland expansion generally leads to higher evaporation and lower amounts of precipitation and afforestation and irrigation expansion to the opposite.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Fulden Batibeniz, Mathias Hauser, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 485–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-485-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study single and concurrent heatwaves, droughts, precipitation, and wind extremes. Globally, these extremes become more frequent and affect larger land areas under future warming, with several countries experiencing extreme events every single month. Concurrent heatwaves–droughts (precipitation–wind) are projected to increase the most in mid–high-latitude countries (tropics). Every mitigation action to avoid further warming will reduce the number of people exposed to extreme weather events.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.
Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Laibao Liu, Vincent Humphrey, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 19, 5435–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until 2100 is different for each Earth system model. We find that differences across models are primarily explained by the annual land carbon sink dependence on temperature and soil moisture, followed by the dependence on CO2 air concentration, and by average climate conditions. Our insights on why each model projects a relatively high or low land carbon sink can help to reduce the underlying uncertainty.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1305–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation, and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occurs and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1167–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The ExtremeX experiment was designed to unravel the contribution of processes leading to the occurrence of recent weather and climate extremes. Global climate simulations are carried out with three models. The results show that in constrained experiments, temperature anomalies during heatwaves are well represented, although climatological model biases remain. Further, a substantial contribution of both atmospheric circulation and soil moisture to heat extremes is identified.
Fei Luo, Frank Selten, Kathrin Wehrli, Kai Kornhuber, Philippe Le Sager, Wilhelm May, Thomas Reerink, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 905–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have identified the weather systems in observational data, where wave patterns with high-magnitude values that circle around the whole globe in either wavenumber 5 or wavenumber 7 are responsible for the extreme events. In conclusion, we find that the climate models are able to reproduce the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as well as their associated surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure.
Verena Bessenbacher, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4569–4596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4569-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4569-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Earth observations have many missing values. They are often filled using information from spatial and temporal contexts that mostly ignore information from related observed variables. We propose the gap-filling method CLIMFILL that additionally uses information from related variables. We test CLIMFILL using gap-free reanalysis data of variables related to soil–moisture climate interactions. CLIMFILL creates estimates for the missing values that recover the original dependence structure.
Shruti Nath, Quentin Lejeune, Lea Beusch, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 851–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-851-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-851-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainty within climate model projections on inter-annual timescales is largely affected by natural climate variability. Emulators are valuable tools for approximating climate model runs, allowing for easy exploration of such uncertainty spaces. This study takes a first step at building a spatially resolved, monthly temperature emulator that takes local yearly temperatures as the sole input, thus providing monthly temperature distributions which are of critical value to impact assessments.
Ronny Meier, Edouard L. Davin, Gordon B. Bonan, David M. Lawrence, Xiaolong Hu, Gregory Duveiller, Catherine Prigent, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2365–2393, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2365-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2365-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We revise the roughness of the land surface in the CESM climate model. Guided by observational data, we increase the surface roughness of forests and decrease that of bare soil, snow, ice, and crops. These modifications alter simulated temperatures and wind speeds at and above the land surface considerably, in particular over desert regions. The revised model represents the diurnal variability of the land surface temperature better compared to satellite observations over most regions.
Heye Reemt Bogena, Martin Schrön, Jannis Jakobi, Patrizia Ney, Steffen Zacharias, Mie Andreasen, Roland Baatz, David Boorman, Mustafa Berk Duygu, Miguel Angel Eguibar-Galán, Benjamin Fersch, Till Franke, Josie Geris, María González Sanchis, Yann Kerr, Tobias Korf, Zalalem Mengistu, Arnaud Mialon, Paolo Nasta, Jerzy Nitychoruk, Vassilios Pisinaras, Daniel Rasche, Rafael Rosolem, Hami Said, Paul Schattan, Marek Zreda, Stefan Achleitner, Eduardo Albentosa-Hernández, Zuhal Akyürek, Theresa Blume, Antonio del Campo, Davide Canone, Katya Dimitrova-Petrova, John G. Evans, Stefano Ferraris, Félix Frances, Davide Gisolo, Andreas Güntner, Frank Herrmann, Joost Iwema, Karsten H. Jensen, Harald Kunstmann, Antonio Lidón, Majken Caroline Looms, Sascha Oswald, Andreas Panagopoulos, Amol Patil, Daniel Power, Corinna Rebmann, Nunzio Romano, Lena Scheiffele, Sonia Seneviratne, Georg Weltin, and Harry Vereecken
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1125–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1125-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring of increasingly frequent droughts is a prerequisite for climate adaptation strategies. This data paper presents long-term soil moisture measurements recorded by 66 cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNS) operated by 24 institutions and distributed across major climate zones in Europe. Data processing followed harmonized protocols and state-of-the-art methods to generate consistent and comparable soil moisture products and to facilitate continental-scale analysis of hydrological extremes.
Lea Beusch, Zebedee Nicholls, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Malte Meinshausen, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2085–2103, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2085-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the first chain of computationally efficient Earth system model (ESM) emulators to translate user-defined greenhouse gas emission pathways into regional temperature change time series accounting for all major sources of climate change projection uncertainty. By combining the global mean emulator MAGICC with the spatially resolved emulator MESMER, we can derive ESM-specific and constrained probabilistic emulations to rapidly provide targeted climate information at the local scale.
Aine M. Gormley-Gallagher, Sebastian Sterl, Annette L. Hirsch, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Edouard L. Davin, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-419-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our results show that agricultural management can impact the local climate and highlight the need to evaluate land management in climate models. We use regression analysis on climate simulations and observations to assess irrigation and conservation agriculture impacts on warming trends. This allowed us to distinguish between the effects of land management and large-scale climate forcings such as rising CO2 concentrations and thus gain insight into the impacts under different climate regimes.
Cited articles
Allen, C. D., Breshears, D. D., and McDowell, N. G.: On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene, Ecosphere, 6, https://doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00203.1, 2015. a
Anderegg, W. R. L., Schwalm, C., Biondi, F., Camarero, J. J., Koch, G., Litvak, M., Ogle, K., Shaw, J. D., Shevliakova, E., Williams, A. P., Wolf, A., Ziaco, E., and Pacala, S.: Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models, Science, 349, 528–532, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aab1833, 2015. a, b, c
Arora, V. K., Katavouta, A., Williams, R. G., Jones, C. D., Brovkin, V., Friedlingstein, P., Schwinger, J., Bopp, L., Boucher, O., Cadule, P., Chamberlain, M. A., Christian, J. R., Delire, C., Fisher, R. A., Hajima, T., Ilyina, T., Joetzjer, E., Kawamiya, M., Koven, C. D., Krasting, J. P., Law, R. M., Lawrence, D. M., Lenton, A., Lindsay, K., Pongratz, J., Raddatz, T., Séférian, R., Tachiiri, K., Tjiputra, J. F., Wiltshire, A., Wu, T., and Ziehn, T.: Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020. a, b
Berg, A., Findell, K., Lintner, B., Giannini, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Van Den Hurk, B., Lorenz, R., Pitman, A., Hagemann, S., Meier, A., Cheruy, F., Ducharne, A., Malyshev, S., and Milly, P. C.: Land-atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 869–874, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3029, 2016. a
Berg, A., Sheffield, J., and Milly, P. C. D.: Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 236–244, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071921, 2017. a
Byrne, B., Liu, J., Bowman, K. W., Pascolini-Campbell, M., Chatterjee, A., Pandey, S., Miyazaki, K., van der Werf, G. R., Wunch, D., Wennberg, P. O., Roehl, C. M., and Sinha, S.: Carbon emissions from the 2023 Canadian wildfires, Nature, 633, 835–839, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07878-z, 2024. a
Ciais, P., Reichstein, M., Viovy, N., Granier, A., Ogée, J., Allard, V., Aubinet, M., Buchmann, N., Bernhofer, C., Carrara, A., Chevallier, F., De Noblet, N., Friend, A. D., Friedlingstein, P., Grünwald, T., Heinesch, B., Keronen, P., Knohl, A., Krinner, G., Loustau, D., Manca, G., Matteucci, G., Miglietta, F., Ourcival, J. M., Papale, D., Pilegaard, K., Rambal, S., Seufert, G., Soussana, J. F., Sanz, M. J., Schulze, E. D., Vesala, T., and Valentini, R.: Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003, Nature, 437, 529–533, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03972, 2005. a
Collier, N., Hoffman, F. M., Lawrence, D. M., Keppel-Aleks, G., Koven, C. D., Riley, W. J., Mu, M., and Randerson, J. T.: The International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) System: Design, Theory, and Implementation, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 2731–2754, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001354, 2018. a
Denissen, J. M. C., Teuling, A. J., Pitman, A. J., Koirala, S., Migliavacca, M., Li, W., Reichstein, M., Winkler, A. J., Zhan, C., and Orth, R.: Widespread shift from ecosystem energy to water limitation with climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 677–684, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01403-8, 2022. a
Egerer, S., Lawrence, D. M., Lawrence, P. J., Argles, A., Arora, V., Barbu, A. L., Harman, I. N., Miller, P. A., Raddatz, T., Vuichard, N., Wårlind, D., Ziehn, T., and Pongratz, J.: Forestation in CMIP6: wide model spread in tree cover and land carbon uptake, Environ. Res. Lett., 20, 054033, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adc93e, 2025. a, b
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Fisher, R. A. and Koven, C. D.: Perspectives on the Future of Land Surface Models and the Challenges of Representing Complex Terrestrial Systems, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2018MS001453, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001453, 2020. a
Franks, P. J., Bonan, G. B., Berry, J. A., Lombardozzi, D. L., Holbrook, N. M., Herold, N., and Oleson, K. W.: Comparing optimal and empirical stomatal conductance models for application in Earth system models, Glob. Change Biol., 24, 5708–5723, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14445, 2018. a
Friedlingstein, P., Cox, P., Betts, R., Bopp, L., von Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Doney, S., Eby, M., Fung, I., Bala, G., John, J., Jones, C., Joos, F., Kato, T., Kawamiya, M., Knorr, W., Lindsay, K., Matthews, H. D., Raddatz, T., Rayner, P., Reick, C., Roeckner, E., Schnitzler, K. G., Schnur, R., Strassmann, K., Weaver, A. J., Yoshikawa, C., and Zeng, N.: Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison, J. Climate, 19, 3337–3353, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3800.1, 2006. a
Friedlingstein, P., O'Sullivan, M., Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Hauck, J., Landschützer, P., Le Quéré, C., Li, H., Luijkx, I. T., Olsen, A., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Sitch, S., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Alin, S. R., Arneth, A., Arora, V., Bates, N. R., Becker, M., Bellouin, N., Berghoff, C. F., Bittig, H. C., Bopp, L., Cadule, P., Campbell, K., Chamberlain, M. A., Chandra, N., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Colligan, T., Decayeux, J., Djeutchouang, L. M., Dou, X., Duran Rojas, C., Enyo, K., Evans, W., Fay, A. R., Feely, R. A., Ford, D. J., Foster, A., Gasser, T., Gehlen, M., Gkritzalis, T., Grassi, G., Gregor, L., Gruber, N., Gürses, Ö., Harris, I., Hefner, M., Heinke, J., Hurtt, G. C., Iida, Y., Ilyina, T., Jacobson, A. R., Jain, A. K., Jarníková, T., Jersild, A., Jiang, F., Jin, Z., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, K., Knauer, J., Korsbakken, J. I., Lan, X., Lauvset, S. K., Lefèvre, N., Liu, Z., Liu, J., Ma, L., Maksyutov, S., Marland, G., Mayot, N., McGuire, P. C., Metzl, N., Monacci, N. M., Morgan, E. J., Nakaoka, S.-I., Neill, C., Niwa, Y., Nützel, T., Olivier, L., Ono, T., Palmer, P. I., Pierrot, D., Qin, Z., Resplandy, L., Roobaert, A., Rosan, T. M., Rödenbeck, C., Schwinger, J., Smallman, T. L., Smith, S. M., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Steinhoff, T., Sun, Q., Sutton, A. J., Séférian, R., Takao, S., Tatebe, H., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., Torres, O., Tourigny, E., Tsujino, H., Tubiello, F., van der Werf, G., Wanninkhof, R., Wang, X., Yang, D., Yang, X., Yu, Z., Yuan, W., Yue, X., Zaehle, S., Zeng, N., and Zeng, J.: Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025. a, b
Fu, Z., Ciais, P., Prentice, I. C., Gentine, P., Makowski, D., Bastos, A., Luo, X., Green, J. K., Stoy, P. C., Yang, H., and Hajima, T.: Atmospheric dryness reduces photosynthesis along a large range of soil water deficits, Nat. Commun., 13, 989, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28652-7, 2022. a, b
Gentine, P., Green, J. K., Guérin, M., Humphrey, V., Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, Y., and Zhou, S.: Coupling between the terrestrial carbon and water cycles – a review, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 083003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab22d6, 2019. a, b, c
Gier, B. K., Schlund, M., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, C. D., Jones, C., Zaehle, S., and Eyring, V.: Representation of the terrestrial carbon cycle in CMIP6, Biogeosciences, 21, 5321–5360, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, 2024. a, b
Green, J. K.: The intricacies of vegetation responses to changing moisture conditions, New Phytol., 244, 2156–2162, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.20182, 2024. a
Grossiord, C., Buckley, T. N., Cernusak, L. A., Novick, K. A., Poulter, B., Siegwolf, R. T. W., Sperry, J. S., and McDowell, N. G.: Plant responses to rising vapor pressure deficit, New Phytol., 226, 1550–1566, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.16485, 2020. a
Gu, D., Otieno, D., Huang, Y., and Wang, Q.: Higher assimilation than respiration sensitivity to drought for a desert ecosystem in Central Asia, Sci. Total Environ., 609, 1200–1207, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.254, 2017. a
Guo, W., Huang, S., Liu, L., Leng, G., Huang, Q., Chen, D., Li, J., Li, P., Wang, Y., Zhu, X., and Peng, J.: Global Critical Drought Thresholds of Terrestrial Carbon Sink–Source Transition, Glob. Change Biol., 31, e70129, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70129, 2025. a
Hassler, B., Hoffman, F. M., Beadling, R., Blockley, E., Huang, B., Lee, J., Lembo, V., Lewis, J., Lu, J., Madaus, L., Malinina, E., Medeiros, B., Pokam, W., Scoccimarro, E., and Swaminathan, R.: Systematic Benchmarking of Climate Models: Methodologies, Applications, and New Directions, Rev. Geophys., 64, e2025RG000891, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025RG000891, 2026. a, b
Hsu, H. and Dirmeyer, P. A.: Uncertainty in Projected Critical Soil Moisture Values in CMIP6 Affects the Interpretation of a More Moisture-Limited World, Earth's Future, 11, e2023EF003511, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003511, 2023. a
Huang, Y., Gerber, S., Huang, T., and Lichstein, J. W.: Evaluating the drought response of CMIP5 models using global gross primary productivity, leaf area, precipitation, and soil moisture data, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 30, 1827–1846, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005480, 2016. a
Humphrey, V., Zscheischler, J., Ciais, P., Gudmundsson, L., Sitch, S., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate to observed changes in terrestrial water storage, Nature, 560, 628–631, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0424-4, 2018. a
Jones, M. W., Veraverbeke, S., Andela, N., Doerr, S. H., Kolden, C., Mataveli, G., Pettinari, M. L., Le Quéré, C., Rosan, T. M., van der Werf, G. R., van Wees, D., and Abatzoglou, J. T.: Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics, Science, 386, eadl5889, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adl5889, 2024. a
Kannenberg, S. A., Schwalm, C. R., and Anderegg, W. R. L.: Ghosts of the past: how drought legacy effects shape forest functioning and carbon cycling, Ecol. Lett., 23, 891–901, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13485, 2020. a, b
Kannenberg, S. A., Anderegg, W. R. L., Barnes, M. L., Dannenberg, M. P., and Knapp, A. K.: Dominant role of soil moisture in mediating carbon and water fluxes in dryland ecosystems, Nat. Geosci., 17, 38–43, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01351-8, 2024. a, b, c, d
Keenan, T. F. and Williams, C. A.: The terrestrial carbon sink, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 43, 219–243, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-030204, 2018. a
Kennedy, D., Swenson, S., Oleson, K. W., Lawrence, D. M., Fisher, R., Costa, A. C. L. d., and Gentine, P.: Implementing Plant Hydraulics in the Community Land Model, Version 5, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 485–513, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001500, 2019. a
Kolus, H. R., Huntzinger, D. N., Schwalm, C. R., Fisher, J. B., McKay, N., Fang, Y., Michalak, A. M., Schaefer, K., Wei, Y., Poulter, B., Mao, J., Parazoo, N. C., and Shi, X.: Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought’s impact on plant productivity, Scientific Reports, 9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39373-1, 2019. a, b
Lawrence, D. M., Fisher, R. A., Koven, C. D., Oleson, K. W., Swenson, S. C., Bonan, G., Collier, N., Ghimire, B., van Kampenhout, L., Kennedy, D., Kluzek, E., Lawrence, P. J., Li, F., Li, H., Lombardozzi, D., Riley, W. J., Sacks, W. J., Shi, M., Vertenstein, M., Wieder, W. R., Xu, C., Ali, A. A., Badger, A. M., Bisht, G., van den Broeke, M., Brunke, M. A., Burns, S. P., Buzan, J., Clark, M., Craig, A., Dahlin, K., Drewniak, B., Fisher, J. B., Flanner, M., Fox, A. M., Gentine, P., Hoffman, F., Keppel-Aleks, G., Knox, R., Kumar, S., Lenaerts, J., Leung, L. R., Lipscomb, W. H., Lu, Y., Pandey, A., Pelletier, J. D., Perket, J., Randerson, J. T., Ricciuto, D. M., Sanderson, B. M., Slater, A., Subin, Z. M., Tang, J., Thomas, R. Q., Val Martin, M., and Zeng, X.: The Community Land Model Version 5: Description of New Features, Benchmarking, and Impact of Forcing Uncertainty, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4245–4287, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001583, 2019. a, b
Li, Q., Tietema, A., Reinsch, S., Schmidt, I. K., de Dato, G., Guidolotti, G., Lellei-Kovács, E., Kopittke, G., and Larsen, K. S.: Higher sensitivity of gross primary productivity than ecosystem respiration to experimental drought and warming across six European shrubland ecosystems, Sci. Total Environ., 900, 165627, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165627, 2023. a
Li, X., Ciais, P., Fensholt, R., Chave, J., Sitch, S., Canadell, J. G., Brandt, M., Fan, L., Xiao, X., Tao, S., Wang, H., Albergel, C., Yang, H., Frappart, F., Wang, M., Bastos, A., Maisongrande, P., Qin, Y., Xing, Z., Cui, T., Yu, L., He, L., Zheng, Y., Liu, X., Liu, Y., De Truchis, A., and Wigneron, J.-P.: Large live biomass carbon losses from droughts in the northern temperate ecosystems during 2016–2022, Nat. Commun., 16, 4980, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59999-2, 2025. a
Liu, J., Wang, Q., Zhan, W., Lian, X., and Gentine, P.: When and where soil dryness matters to ecosystem photosynthesis, Nature Plants, 11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-025-02024-7, 2025. a, b
Liu, L., Gudmundsson, L., Hauser, M., Qin, D., Li, S., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Soil moisture dominates dryness stress on ecosystem production globally, Nat. Commun., 11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18631-1, 2020. a, b
Liu, L., Ciais, P., Wu, M., Padrón, R. S., Friedlingstein, P., Schwaab, J., Gudmundsson, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Increasingly negative tropical water–interannual CO2 growth rate coupling, Nature, 618, 755–760, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06056-x, 2023. a, b
Liu, L., Fisher, R. A., Douville, H., Padrón, R. S., Berg, A., Mao, J., Alessandri, A., Kim, H., and Seneviratne, S. I.: No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability, Communications Earth & Environment, 5, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01504-6, 2024a. a
Liu, Y., Chen, X., Bai, Y., and Zeng, J.: Evaluation of 22 CMIP6 model-derived global soil moisture products of different shared socioeconomic pathways, J. Hydrol., 636, 131241, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131241, 2024b. a
MacBean, N., Scott, R. L., Biederman, J. A., Ottlé, C., Vuichard, N., Ducharne, A., Kolb, T., Dore, S., Litvak, M., and Moore, D. J. P.: Testing water fluxes and storage from two hydrology configurations within the ORCHIDEE land surface model across US semi-arid sites, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5203–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5203-2020, 2020. a
Marcolla, B., Migliavacca, M., Rödenbeck, C., and Cescatti, A.: Patterns and trends of the dominant environmental controls of net biome productivity, Biogeosciences, 17, 2365–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2365-2020, 2020. a
Massoud, E. C., Collier, N., Wang, Y., Mao, J., Harpold, A., Kannenberg, S. A., Koren, G., Kumar, M., Raghav, P., Ray, P., Shi, M., Tao, J., Vasu, S. P., Wang, H., Zhu, Q., and Hoffman, F. M.: Benchmarking soil moisture and its relationship to ecohydrologic variables in Earth System Models, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3517, 2025. a
Natali, S., Holdren, J., Rogers, B., Treharne, R., Duffy, P., Pomerance, R., and MacDonald, E.: Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global climate goals, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2100163118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2100163118, 2021. a
Novick, K. A., Ficklin, D. L., Stoy, P. C., Williams, C. A., Bohrer, G., Oishi, A. C., Papuga, S. A., Blanken, P. D., Noormets, A., Sulman, B. N., Scott, R. L., Wang, L., and Phillips, R. P.: The increasing importance of atmospheric demand for ecosystem water and carbon fluxes, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 1023–1027, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3114, 2016. a
Reichstein, M., Bahn, M., Ciais, P., Frank, D., Mahecha, M. D., Seneviratne, S. I., Zscheischler, J., Beer, C., Buchmann, N., Frank, D. C., Papale, D., Rammig, A., Smith, P., Thonicke, K., Van Der Velde, M., Vicca, S., Walz, A., and Wattenbach, M.: Climate extremes and the carbon cycle, Nature, 500, 287–295, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12350, 2013. a, b
Reick, C. H., Gayler, V., Goll, D., Hagemann, S., Heidkamp, M., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Raddatz, T., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., and Wilkenskjeld, S.: JSBACH 3 – The land component of the MPI Earth System Model: documentation of version 3.2, https://doi.org/10.17617/2.3279802, 2021. a
Richardson, D., Black, A. S., Irving, D., Matear, R. J., Monselesan, D. P., Risbey, J. S., Squire, D. T., and Tozer, C. R.: Global increase in wildfire potential from compound fire weather and drought, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5, 23, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00248-4, 2022. a
Sanderson, B. M. and Fisher, R. A.: A fiery wake-up call for climate science, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 175–177, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0707-2, 2020. a
Schwalm, C. R., Anderegg, W. R., Michalak, A. M., Fisher, J. B., Biondi, F., Koch, G., Litvak, M., Ogle, K., Shaw, J. D., Wolf, A., Huntzinger, D. N., Schaefer, K., Cook, R., Wei, Y., Fang, Y., Hayes, D., Huang, M., Jain, A., and Tian, H.: Global patterns of drought recovery, Nature, 548, 202–205, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23021, 2017. a
Seidl, R., Thom, D., Kautz, M., Martin-Benito, D., Peltoniemi, M., Vacchiano, G., Wild, J., Ascoli, D., Petr, M., Honkaniemi, J., Lexer, M. J., Trotsiuk, V., Mairota, P., Svoboda, M., Fabrika, M., Nagel, T. A., and Reyer, C. P. O.: Forest disturbances under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 395–402, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3303, 2017. a
Seneviratne, S. I., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B., Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review, Earth-Sci. Rev., 99, 125–161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004, 2010. a, b, c, d
Seneviratne, S. I., Wilhelm, M., Stanelle, T., Van Den Hurk, B., Hagemann, S., Berg, A., Cheruy, F., Higgins, M. E., Meier, A., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J. L., Findell, K. L., Ghattas, J., Lawrence, D. M., Malyshev, S., Rummukainen, M., and Smith, B.: Impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5212–5217, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50956, 2013. a, b, c, d
Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Di Luca, A., Ghosh, S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., Lewis, S., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Satoh, M., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Wehner, M., and Zhou, B.: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate, in: Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1513–1766, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.013, 2023. a, b
Sippel, S., Reichstein, M., Ma, X., Mahecha, M. D., Lange, H., Flach, M., and Frank, D.: Drought, Heat, and the Carbon Cycle: a Review, Current Climate Change Reports, 4, 266–286, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0103-4, 2018. a, b
Song, X., Wang, D.-Y., Li, F., and Zeng, X.-D.: Evaluating the performance of CMIP6 Earth system models in simulating global vegetation structure and distribution, Advances in Climate Change Research, 12, 584–595, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2021.06.008, 2021. a
Stocker, B. D., Zscheischler, J., Keenan, T. F., Prentice, I. C., Peñuelas, J., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Quantifying soil moisture impacts on light use efficiency across biomes, New Phytol., 218, 1430–1449, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15123, 2018. a
Sun, W., Zhou, S., Yu, B., Zhang, Y., Keenan, T., and Fu, B.: Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions drive terrestrial carbon-water trade-offs, Communications Earth & Environment, 6, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02145-z, 2025. a
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012. a
van den Hurk, B., Kim, H., Krinner, G., Seneviratne, S. I., Derksen, C., Oki, T., Douville, H., Colin, J., Ducharne, A., Cheruy, F., Viovy, N., Puma, M. J., Wada, Y., Li, W., Jia, B., Alessandri, A., Lawrence, D. M., Weedon, G. P., Ellis, R., Hagemann, S., Mao, J., Flanner, M. G., Zampieri, M., Materia, S., Law, R. M., and Sheffield, J.: LS3MIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: the Land Surface, Snow and Soil moisture Model Intercomparison Project – aims, setup and expected outcome, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2809–2832, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, 2016. a
van der Woude, A. M., Peters, W., Joetzjer, E., Lafont, S., Koren, G., Ciais, P., Ramonet, M., Xu, Y., Bastos, A., Botía, S., Sitch, S., de Kok, R., Kneuer, T., Kubistin, D., Jacotot, A., Loubet, B., Herig-Coimbra, P.-H., Loustau, D., and Luijkx, I. T.: Temperature extremes of 2022 reduced carbon uptake by forests in Europe, Nat. Commun., 14, 6218, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41851-0, 2023. a
von Buttlar, J., Zscheischler, J., Rammig, A., Sippel, S., Reichstein, M., Knohl, A., Jung, M., Menzer, O., Arain, M. A., Buchmann, N., Cescatti, A., Gianelle, D., Kiely, G., Law, B. E., Magliulo, V., Margolis, H., McCaughey, H., Merbold, L., Migliavacca, M., Montagnani, L., Oechel, W., Pavelka, M., Peichl, M., Rambal, S., Raschi, A., Scott, R. L., Vaccari, F. P., van Gorsel, E., Varlagin, A., Wohlfahrt, G., and Mahecha, M. D.: Impacts of droughts and extreme-temperature events on gross primary production and ecosystem respiration: a systematic assessment across ecosystems and climate zones, Biogeosciences, 15, 1293–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018, 2018. a
Williams, A. P. and Abatzoglou, J. T.: Recent Advances and Remaining Uncertainties in Resolving Past and Future Climate Effects on Global Fire Activity, Current Climate Change Reports, 2, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0031-0, 2016. a
Williams, R. G., Katavouta, A., and Goodwin, P.: Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks Operating in the Climate System, Current Climate Change Reports, 5, 282–295, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00144-9, 2019. a
Zaitchik, B. F., Rodell, M., Biasutti, M., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Wetting and drying trends under climate change, Nature Water, 1, 502–513, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-023-00073-w, 2023. a
Zheng, B., Ciais, P., Chevallier, F., Chuvieco, E., Chen, Y., and Yang, H.: Increasing forest fire emissions despite the decline in global burned area, Science Advances, 7, eabh2646, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abh2646, 2021. a
Zhou, S., Zhang, Y., Park Williams, A., and Gentine, P.: Projected increases in intensity, frequency, and terrestrial carbon costs of compound drought and aridity events, Science Advances, 5, eaau5740, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau5740, 2019. a
Zscheischler, J., Orth, R., and Seneviratne, S. I.: A submonthly database for detecting changes in vegetation-atmosphere coupling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 9816–9824, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066563, 2015. a
Short summary
We investigate how soil moisture influences the future land carbon sink using dedicated experiments from the latest generation of Earth system models. Our results show that soil moisture strongly reduces land carbon uptake, mainly through soil moisture–atmosphere coupling. However, models disagree on the magnitude of SM impacts. The study emphasises that improving the representation of plant water stress in models is essential to reduce uncertainties in carbon cycle projections.
We investigate how soil moisture influences the future land carbon sink using dedicated...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint