Articles | Volume 23, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-767-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-767-2026
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26 Jan 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 26 Jan 2026

Quantifying the time of emergence of the anthropogenic signal in the global land carbon sink

Na Li, Sebastian Sippel, Nora Linscheid, Miguel D. Mahecha, Markus Reichstein, and Ana Bastos

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The study investigates how long it takes for human-driven trends in the land carbon sink to become distinguishable from natural year-to-year variability, using large ensembles of Earth system model simulations. The authors find that anthropogenic signals emerge relatively quickly for gross carbon fluxes but more slowly for the net land carbon sink—particularly at regional scales—and that future mitigation scenarios delay detection by weakening long-term trends. The study contributes to enhancing our ability to identify human impacts on the land carbon sink and evaluate the effectiveness of climate policies.
Short summary
We study when anthropogenic signal becomes detectable in the global land carbon sink, which has risen since the 1950s due to CO₂ fertilization and mid- to high-latitude warming. The signal emerges earlier at the global than at regional scales. Future scenarios (2016–2100) take longer to detect than the historical period (1851–2014) because the signal is weaker relative to larger natural variability. Removing circulation-induced variability with dynamical adjustment shortens the detection time.
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