Articles | Volume 23, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-7807-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-7807-2026
Research article
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11 Nov 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 11 Nov 2026

Multi-centennial ocean biogeochemical responses to extended Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Hidetaka Kobayashi, Tokuta Yokohata, Akitomo Yamamoto, Tomohiro Hajima, Hiroaki Tatebe, Akira Oka, and Keith B. Rodgers

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Editorial statement
Earth System Models generate projections of future Earth surface conditions, including climate, biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem functioning. These projections have traditionally been limited to the 21th century, while it is well known that the carbon cycle will be perturbed for millennia to come. Based on extended SSP scenarios up to the year 2500, this study presents projections for ocean carbon buffering, biological production and ecosystem functioning. Crucially, this study reveals that ocean carbon cycling (carbonate, carbon dioxide exchange and primary production) will be perturbed for centuries to come even if mitigation will be prioritized. Moreover, high emission scenarios are likely to lead to substantial declines in ocean buffer capacity and more severe and longer lasting ecosystem stress. Accordingly, emission choices at this moment are critical for ocean conditions in future centuries.
Short summary
Using long-term MIROC-ES2L simulations under extended Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios to 2500, we show that ocean–atmosphere pCO2 disequilibrium exhibits strong scenario dependence. Low emissions lead to near equilibrium by 2100, whereas high emissions drive expanding oceanic CO2 supersaturation and declining buffering capacity. Marine ecosystem stress persists for centuries, reflecting the ocean’s long memory and limited reversibility.
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