Modeling impacts of climate change and grazing effects on plant biomass and soil organic carbon in the Qinghai–Tibetan grasslands

Abstract. The Qinghai Province supports over 40 % of the human population of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) but occupies about 29 % of its land area, and thus it plays an important role in the plateau. The dominant land cover is grassland, which has been severely degraded over the last decade due to a combination of increased human activities and climate change. Numerous studies indicate that the plateau is sensitive to recent global climate change, but the drivers and consequences of grassland ecosystem change are controversial, especially the effects of climate change and grazing patterns on the grassland biomass and soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in this region. In this study, we used the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model and two climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to understand how the grassland biomass and SOC pools might respond to different grazing intensities under future climate change scenarios. More than 1400 grassland biomass sampling points and 46 SOC points were used to validate the simulated results. The simulated above-ground biomass and SOC concentrations were in good agreement with the measured data (R² 0.71 and 0.73 for above-ground biomass and SOC, respectively). The results showed that climate change may be the major factor that leads to fluctuations in the grassland biomass and SOC, and it explained 26.4 and 47.7 % of biomass and SOC variation, respectively. Meanwhile, the grazing intensity explained 6.4 and 2.3 % variation in biomass and SOC, respectively. The project average biomass and SOC between 2015 and 2044 was significantly smaller than past 30 years (1985–2014), and it was 191.17 g C m⁻², 63.44 g C kg⁻¹ and 183.62 g C m⁻², 63.37 g C kg⁻¹ for biomass and SOC under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The RCP8.5 showed the more negative effect on the biomass and SOC compared with RCP4.5. Grazing intensity had a negative relationship with biomass and positive relationship with SOC. Compared with the baseline, the biomass and SOC changed by 12.56 and −0.19 % for G₀, 7.23 and 0.23 for G₋₅₀, and −5.17 and 1.19 % for G₊₅₀. In the future, more human activity and management practices should be coupled into the model simulation.