Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Arctic Ocean acidification over the 21st century co-driven by anthropogenic carbon increases and freshening in the CMIP6 model ensemble
Jens Terhaar
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Olivier Torres
LMD/IPSL, Ecole Normale Supérieure/PSL Université, CNRS, Ecole Polytechnique, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
Timothée Bourgeois
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Lester Kwiatkowski
LOCEAN/IPSL, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, IRD, MNHN, Paris, France
Related authors
Li-Qing Jiang, Amanda Fay, Jens Daniel Müller, Lydia Keppler, Dustin Carroll, Siv K. Lauvset, Tim DeVries, Judith Hauck, Christian Rödenbeck, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Metzl, Andrea J. Fassbender, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Peter Landschützer, Rik Wanninkhof, Christopher Sabine, Simone R. Alin, Mario Hoppema, Are Olsen, Matthew P. Humphreys, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Nicole Besemer, Henry C. Bittig, Albert E. Boyd, Daniel Broullón, Wei-Jun Cai, Brendan R. Carter, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Chen-Tung Arthur Chen, Frédéric Cyr, John E. Dore, Ian Enochs, Richard A. Feely, Hernan E. Garcia, Marion Gehlen, Lucas Gloege, Melchor González-Dávila, Nicolas Gruber, Yosuke Iida, Masao Ishii, Esther Kennedy, Alex Kozyr, Nico Lange, Claire Lo Monaco, Derek P. Manzello, Galen A. McKinley, Natalie M. Monacci, Xose A. Padin, Ana M. Palacio-Castro, Fiz F. Pérez, Alizée Roobaert, J. Magdalena Santana-Casiano, Jonathan Sharp, Adrienne Sutton, Jim Swift, Toste Tanhua, Maciej Telszewski, Jens Terhaar, Ruben van Hooidonk, Anton Velo, Andrew J. Watson, Angelicque E. White, Zelun Wu, Hyelim Yoo, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-255, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This review article provides an overview of 60 existing ocean carbonate chemistry data products, encompassing a broad range of types, including compilations of cruise datasets, gap-filled observational products, model simulations, and more. It is designed to help researchers identify and access the data products that best support their scientific objectives, thereby facilitating progress in understanding the ocean's changing carbonate chemistry.
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean heat uptake (OHU) accounts for over 90% of the Earth's excess energy storage due to climate change, but future (OHU) projections strongly differ between climate models. Here, we reveal an observational constraint on future OHU using historical Antarctic sea ice extent observations. This emergent constraint is based on a coupling between sea ice, deep and surface ocean temperatures, and cloud feedback. It implies an upward correction of 2024–2100 global OHU projections by up to 14%.
Jens Terhaar
Biogeosciences, 22, 1631–1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1631-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1631-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean is a major natural carbon sink. Despite its importance, estimates of the ocean carbon sink remain uncertain. Here, I present a hybrid model estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022. By combining ocean models in hindcast mode and Earth system models, I keep the strength of each approach and remove the respective weaknesses. This composite model estimate is similar in magnitude to the best estimate of the Global Carbon Budget but 70 % less uncertain.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Jens Terhaar
Biogeosciences, 21, 3903–3926, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the ocean’s importance in the carbon cycle and hence the climate, observing the ocean carbon sink remains challenging. Here, I use an ensemble of 12 models to understand drivers of decadal trends of the past, present, and future ocean carbon sink. I show that 80 % of the decadal trends in the multi-model mean ocean carbon sink can be explained by changes in decadal trends in atmospheric CO2. The remaining 20 % are due to internal climate variability and ocean heat uptake.
Tianfei Xue, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, Andreas Oschlies, and Ivy Frenger
Biogeosciences, 21, 2473–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton play a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Jens Terhaar, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 19, 4431–4457, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of the ocean sink of anthropogenic carbon vary across various approaches. We show that the global ocean carbon sink can be estimated by three parameters, two of which approximate the ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and one of which approximates the chemical capacity of the ocean to take up carbon. With observations of these parameters, we estimate that the global ocean carbon sink is 10 % larger than previously assumed, and we cut uncertainties in half.
Li-Qing Jiang, Amanda Fay, Jens Daniel Müller, Lydia Keppler, Dustin Carroll, Siv K. Lauvset, Tim DeVries, Judith Hauck, Christian Rödenbeck, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Metzl, Andrea J. Fassbender, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Peter Landschützer, Rik Wanninkhof, Christopher Sabine, Simone R. Alin, Mario Hoppema, Are Olsen, Matthew P. Humphreys, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Nicole Besemer, Henry C. Bittig, Albert E. Boyd, Daniel Broullón, Wei-Jun Cai, Brendan R. Carter, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Chen-Tung Arthur Chen, Frédéric Cyr, John E. Dore, Ian Enochs, Richard A. Feely, Hernan E. Garcia, Marion Gehlen, Lucas Gloege, Melchor González-Dávila, Nicolas Gruber, Yosuke Iida, Masao Ishii, Esther Kennedy, Alex Kozyr, Nico Lange, Claire Lo Monaco, Derek P. Manzello, Galen A. McKinley, Natalie M. Monacci, Xose A. Padin, Ana M. Palacio-Castro, Fiz F. Pérez, Alizée Roobaert, J. Magdalena Santana-Casiano, Jonathan Sharp, Adrienne Sutton, Jim Swift, Toste Tanhua, Maciej Telszewski, Jens Terhaar, Ruben van Hooidonk, Anton Velo, Andrew J. Watson, Angelicque E. White, Zelun Wu, Hyelim Yoo, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-255, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This review article provides an overview of 60 existing ocean carbonate chemistry data products, encompassing a broad range of types, including compilations of cruise datasets, gap-filled observational products, model simulations, and more. It is designed to help researchers identify and access the data products that best support their scientific objectives, thereby facilitating progress in understanding the ocean's changing carbonate chemistry.
Madhavan Girijakumari Keerthi, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, and Marina Levy
Biogeosciences, 22, 2163–2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2163-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2163-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed how well climate models replicate sub-seasonal changes in ocean chlorophyll observed by satellites. Models struggle to capture these variations accurately. Some overestimate fluctuations and their impact on annual chlorophyll variability, while others underestimate them. The underestimation is likely due to limited model resolution, while the overestimation may come from internal model oscillations.
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean heat uptake (OHU) accounts for over 90% of the Earth's excess energy storage due to climate change, but future (OHU) projections strongly differ between climate models. Here, we reveal an observational constraint on future OHU using historical Antarctic sea ice extent observations. This emergent constraint is based on a coupling between sea ice, deep and surface ocean temperatures, and cloud feedback. It implies an upward correction of 2024–2100 global OHU projections by up to 14%.
Jens Terhaar
Biogeosciences, 22, 1631–1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1631-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1631-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean is a major natural carbon sink. Despite its importance, estimates of the ocean carbon sink remain uncertain. Here, I present a hybrid model estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022. By combining ocean models in hindcast mode and Earth system models, I keep the strength of each approach and remove the respective weaknesses. This composite model estimate is similar in magnitude to the best estimate of the Global Carbon Budget but 70 % less uncertain.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Alban Planchat, Laurent Bopp, and Lester Kwiatkowski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-523, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Disparities in ocean carbon sink estimates derived from observations and models raise questions about our ability to accurately assess its magnitude and trend. Essential for isolating the anthropogenic component of the total air-sea carbon flux estimated from observations, the pre-industrial air-sea carbon flux is a key source of uncertainty. Thus, we take a fresh look at this flux using the alkalinity budget, alongside the carbon budget which had previously been considered alone.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Elodie Bougeot, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3738, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3738, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs are under threat due to warming and ocean acidification. It is difficult to project future coral reef production due to uncertainties in climate models, socio-economic scenarios and coral adaptation to warming. Here we have included a coral reef module within a climate model for the first time to evaluate the range of possible futures. We show that coral reef production decreases in most future scenarios, but in some cases coral reef carbonate production can persist.
Timothée Bourgeois, Olivier Torres, Friederike Fröb, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Giang T. Tran, Jörg Schwinger, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jean Negrel, David Keller, Andreas Oschlies, Laurent Bopp, and Fortunat Joos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2768, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions significantly impact ocean ecosystems through climate change and acidification, leading to either progressive or abrupt changes. This study maps the crossing of physical and ecological limits for various ocean impact metrics under three emission scenarios. Using Earth system models, we identify when these limits are exceeded, highlighting the urgent need for ambitious climate action to safeguard the world's oceans and ecosystems.
Jens Terhaar
Biogeosciences, 21, 3903–3926, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the ocean’s importance in the carbon cycle and hence the climate, observing the ocean carbon sink remains challenging. Here, I use an ensemble of 12 models to understand drivers of decadal trends of the past, present, and future ocean carbon sink. I show that 80 % of the decadal trends in the multi-model mean ocean carbon sink can be explained by changes in decadal trends in atmospheric CO2. The remaining 20 % are due to internal climate variability and ocean heat uptake.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6513–6528, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs are crucial for biodiversity, but they also play a role in the carbon cycle on long time scales of a few thousand years. To better simulate the future and past evolution of coral reefs and their effect on the global carbon cycle, hence on atmospheric CO2 concentration, it is necessary to include coral reefs within a climate model. Here we describe the inclusion of coral reef carbonate production in a carbon–climate model and its validation in comparison to existing modern data.
Tianfei Xue, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, Andreas Oschlies, and Ivy Frenger
Biogeosciences, 21, 2473–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton play a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Alban Planchat, Laurent Bopp, Lester Kwiatkowski, and Olivier Torres
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 565–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-565-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-565-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean acidification is likely to impact all stages of the ocean carbonate pump. We show divergent responses of CaCO3 export throughout this century in earth system models, with anomalies by 2100 ranging from −74 % to +23 % under a high-emission scenario. While we confirm the limited impact of carbonate pump anomalies on 21st century ocean carbon uptake and acidification, we highlight a potentially abrupt shift in CaCO3 dissolution from deep to subsurface waters beyond 2100.
Narimane Dorey, Sophie Martin, and Lester Kwiatkowski
Biogeosciences, 20, 4289–4306, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Human CO2 emissions are modifying ocean carbonate chemistry, causing ocean acidification and likely already impacting marine ecosystems. Here, we added CO2 to intertidal pools at the start of emersion to investigate the influence of future ocean acidification on net community production (NCP) and calcification (NCC). By day, adding CO2 fertilized the pools (+20 % NCP). By night, pools experienced net community dissolution, a dissolution that was further increased (+40 %) by the CO2 addition.
Benjamin Richaud, Katja Fennel, Eric C. J. Oliver, Michael D. DeGrandpre, Timothée Bourgeois, Xianmin Hu, and Youyu Lu
The Cryosphere, 17, 2665–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice is a dynamic carbon reservoir. Its seasonal growth and melt modify the carbonate chemistry in the upper ocean, with consequences for the Arctic Ocean carbon sink. Yet, the importance of this process is poorly quantified. Using two independent approaches, this study provides new methods to evaluate the error in air–sea carbon flux estimates due to the lack of biogeochemistry in ice in earth system models. Those errors range from 5 % to 30 %, depending on the model and climate projection.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Jens Terhaar, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 19, 4431–4457, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of the ocean sink of anthropogenic carbon vary across various approaches. We show that the global ocean carbon sink can be estimated by three parameters, two of which approximate the ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and one of which approximates the chemical capacity of the ocean to take up carbon. With observations of these parameters, we estimate that the global ocean carbon sink is 10 % larger than previously assumed, and we cut uncertainties in half.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Cited articles
Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 228–232, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092, 2002. a
Anderson, L., Tanhua, T., Björk, G., Hjalmarsson, S., Jones, E., Jutterström, S., Rudels, B., Swift, J., and Wåhlstöm, I.: Arctic ocean shelf–basin interaction: An active continental shelf CO2 pump and its impact on the degree of calcium carbonate solubility, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 57, 869–879, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2010.03.012, 2010. a, b, c
Armstrong, J. L., Boldt, J. L., Cross, A. D., Moss, J. H., Davis, N. D., Myers, K. W., Walker, R. V., Beauchamp, D. A., and Haldorson, L. J.: Distribution, size, and interannual, seasonal and diel food habits of northern Gulf of Alaska juvenile pink salmon, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 52, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2004.09.019, 2005. a, b, c
Bates, N. R. and Mathis, J. T.: The Arctic Ocean marine carbon cycle: evaluation of air-sea CO2 exchanges, ocean acidification impacts and potential feedbacks, Biogeosciences, 6, 2433–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-2433-2009, 2009. a, b, c
Bates, N. R., Mathis, J. T., and Cooper, L. W.: Ocean acidification and biologically induced seasonality of carbonate mineral saturation states in the western Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 114, C11007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JC004862, 2009. a
Berge, J., Renaud, P. E., Darnis, G., Cottier, F., Last, K., Gabrielsen, T. M., Johnsen, G., Seuthe, L., Weslawski, J. M., Leu, E., Moline, M., Nahrgang, J., Søreide, J. E., Varpe, Ø., Lønne, O. J., Daase, M., and Falk-Petersen, S.: In the dark: A review of ecosystem processes during the Arctic polar night, overarching perspectives of contemporary and future ecosystems in the Arctic Ocean, Prog. Oceanog., 139, 258–271, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2015.08.005, 2015. a
Boé, J., Hall, A., and Qu, X.: September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100, Nat. Geosci., 2, 341–343, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo467, 2009. a
Boucher, O., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., and Foujols, M. A.: IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20180803, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1534, 2018a. a
Boucher, O., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., and Foujols, M. A.: IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, Tech. Rep., Version20190119, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1532, 2018b. a
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., D'Andrea, F., Davini, P., de Lavergne, C., Denvil, S., Deshayes, J., Devilliers, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.-L., Dupont, E., Éthé, C., Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Flavoni, S., Foujols, M.-A., Gardoll, S., Gastineau, G., Ghattas, J., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guenet, B., Guez, Lionel, E., Guilyardi, E., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N., Levavasseur, G., Lévy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S., Madec, G., Madeleine, J.-B., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul, L., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Planton, Y., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rochetin, N., Rousset, C., Sepulchre, P., Sima, A., Swingedouw, D., Thiéblemont, R., Traore, A. K., Vancoppenolle, M., Vial, J., Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Climate Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002 010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020. a
Brient, F.: Reducing uncertainties in climate projections with emergent constraints: Concepts, Examples and Prospects, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 37, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069465, 2020. a
Bronselaer, B., Winton, M., Russell, J., Sabine, C. L., and Khatiwala, S.: Agreement of CMIP5 simulated and observed ocean anthropogenic CO2 uptake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 12298–12305, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074435, 2017. a
Brown, K. A., Holding, J. M., and Carmack, E. C.: Understanding Regional and Seasonal Variability Is Key to Gaining a Pan-Arctic Perspective on Arctic Ocean Freshening, Front. Mar. Sci., 7, 606, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00606, 2020. a
Brüchert, V., Bröder, L., Sawicka, J. E., Tesi, T., Joye, S. P., Sun, X., Semiletov, I. P., and Samarkin, V. A.: Carbon mineralization in Laptev and East Siberian sea shelf and slope sediment, Biogeosciences, 15, 471–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-471-2018, 2018. a
Caldwell, P. M., Bretherton, C. S., Zelinka, M. D., Klein, S. A., Santer, B. D., and Sanderson, B. M.: Statistical significance of climate sensitivity predictors obtained by data mining, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1803–1808, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059205, 2014. a
Caldwell, P. M., Zelinka, M. D., and Klein, S. A.: Evaluating Emergent Constraints on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, J. Clim., 31, 3921–3942, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0631.1, 2018. a, b
Christian, J. R., Holdsworth, A., Steiner, N., Lee, W. G., Swart, N. C., Denman, K. L., Hayashida, H., and Riche, O. G. J.: The Canadian Ocean Ecosystem, Geosci. Model Dev., in preparation, 2021. a
Comeau, S., Jeffree, R., Teyssié, J.-L., and Gattuso, J.-P.: Response of the Arctic Pteropod Limacina helicina to Projected Future Environmental Conditions, Plos One, 5, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0011362, 2010. a, b, c
Cox, P. M., Pearson, D., Booth, B. B., Friedlingstein, P., Huntingford, C., Jones, C. D., and Luke, C. M.: Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability, Nature, 494, 341–344, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11882, 2013. a, b
Danabasoglu, G.: NCAR CESM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20190308, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2185, 2019a. a
Danabasoglu, G.: NCAR CESM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20190308, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2201, 2019b. a
Danabasoglu, G.: NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20190808, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10024, 2019c. a
Danabasoglu, G.: NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20190808, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10026, 2019d. a
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier, A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Holland, M. M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R., Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A. S., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S., van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C., Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E., Kinnison, D., Kushner, P. J., Larson, V. E., Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E., Polvani, L., Rasch, P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001 916, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020. a, b
Davis, C. V., Rivest, E. B., Hill, T. M., Gaylord, B., Russell, A. D., and Sanford, E.: Ocean acidification compromises a planktic calcifier with implications for global carbon cycling, Sci. Rep., 7, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01530-9, 2017. a, b, c
DeAngelis, A. M., Qu, X., and Hall, A.: Importance of vegetation processes for model spread in the fast precipitation response to CO2 forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 12550–12559, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071392, 2016. a
Dickson, A. G., Sabine, C. L., and Christian, J. R.: Guide to best practices for ocean CO2 measurements, Tech. Rep., PICES Special Publication, 3, 191 pp., 2007. a
Docquier, D., Grist, J. P., Roberts, M. J., Roberts, C. D., Semmler, T., Ponsoni, L., Massonnet, F., Sidorenko, D., Sein, D. V., Iovino, D., Bellucci, A., and Fichefet, T.: Impact of model resolution on Arctic sea ice and North Atlantic Ocean heat transport, Clim. Dynam., 53, 4989–5017, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04840-y, 2019. a
Dunne, J. P., Bociu, I., Bronselaer, B., Guo, H., John, J. G., Krasting, J. P., Stock, C. A., Winton, M., and Zadeh, N.: Simple Global Ocean Biogeochemistry with Light, Iron, Nutrients and Gas version 2 (BLINGv2): Model description and simulation characteristics in GFDL's CM4.0, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002008, 2020a. a
Dunne, J. P., Horowitz, L. W., Adcroft, A. J., Ginoux, P., Held, I. M., John, J. G., Krasting, J. P., Malyshev, S., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Shevliakova, E., Stock, C. A., Zadeh, N., Balaji, V., Blanton, C., Dunne, K. A., Dupuis, C., Durachta, J., Dussin, R., Gauthier, P. P. G., Griffies, S. M., Guo, H., Hallberg, R. W., Harrison, M., He, J., Hurlin, W., McHugh, C., Menzel, R., Milly, P. C. D., Nikonov, S., Paynter, D. J., Ploshay, J., Radhakrishnan, A., Rand, K., Reichl, B. G., Robinson, T., Schwarzkopf, D. M., Sentman, L. T., Underwood, S., Vahlenkamp, H., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B., Zeng, Y., and Zhao, M.: The GFDL Earth System Model version 4.1 (GFDL-ESM 4.1): Overall coupled model description and simulation characteristics, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002015, 2020b. a
Eyring, V., Cox, P. M., Flato, G. M., Gleckler, P. J., Abramowitz, G., Caldwell, P., Collins, W. D., Gier, B. K., Hall, A. D., Hoffman, F. M., Hurtt, G. C.,
Jahn, A., Jones, C. D., Klein, S. A., Krasting, J. P., Kwiatkowski, L.,
Lorenz, R.,
Maloney, E.,
Meehl, G. A.,
Pendergrass, A. G.,
Pincus, R.,
Ruane, A. C.,
Russell, J. L.,
Sanderson, B. M.,
Santer, B. D.,
Sherwood, S. C.,
Simpson, I. R.,
Stouffer, R. J., and Williamson, M. S.: Taking climate model evaluation to the next level, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 102–110, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y, 2019. a
Fabry, V. J., Mcclintock, J. B., Mathus, J. T., and Grebmeier, J. M.: Ocean Acidification at High Latitudes: The Bellwether, Oceanography, 22, 160–171, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2009.105, 2009. a
Friedlingstein, P., Jones, M. W., O'Sullivan, M., Andrew, R. M., Hauck, J., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Sitch, S., Le Quéré, C., Bakker, D. C. E., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Anthoni, P., Barbero, L., Bastos, A., Bastrikov, V., Becker, M., Bopp, L., Buitenhuis, E., Chandra, N., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Currie, K. I., Feely, R. A., Gehlen, M., Gilfillan, D., Gkritzalis, T., Goll, D. S., Gruber, N., Gutekunst, S., Harris, I., Haverd, V., Houghton, R. A., Hurtt, G., Ilyina, T., Jain, A. K., Joetzjer, E., Kaplan, J. O., Kato, E., Klein Goldewijk, K., Korsbakken, J. I., Landschützer, P., Lauvset, S. K., Lefèvre, N., Lenton, A., Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D., Marland, G., McGuire, P. C., Melton, J. R., Metzl, N., Munro, D. R., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S.-I., Neill, C., Omar, A. M., Ono, T., Peregon, A., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Rehder, G., Resplandy, L., Robertson, E., Rödenbeck, C., Séférian, R., Schwinger, J., Smith, N., Tans, P. P., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., Tubiello, F. N., van der Werf, G. R., Wiltshire, A. J., and Zaehle, S.: Global Carbon Budget 2019, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019. a
Frommel, A. Y., Maneja, R., Lowe, D., Malzahn, A. M., Geffen, A. J., Folkvord, A., Piatkowski, U., Reusch, T. B., and Clemmesen, C.: Severe tissue damage in Atlantic cod larvae under increasing ocean acidification, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 42–46, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1324, 2012. a
Gerber, M., Joos, F., Vázquez-Rodríguez, M., Touratier, F., and Goyet, C.: Regional air-sea fluxes of anthropogenic carbon inferred with an Ensemble Kalman Filter, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB1013, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003247, 2009. a
Gloor, M., Gruber, N., Sarmiento, J., Sabine, C. L., Feely, R. A., and Rödenbeck, C.: A first estimate of present and preindustrial air-sea CO2 flux patterns based on ocean interior carbon measurements and models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015594, 2003. a
Good, P., Sellar, A., Tang, Y., Rumbold, S., Ellis, R., Kelley, D., Kuhlbrodt, T., and Walton, J.: MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20190726, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1567, 2019. a
Grotheer, H., Meyer, V., Riedel, T., Pfalz, G., Mathieu, L., Hefter, J., Gentz, T., Lantuit, H., Mollenhauer, G., and Fritz, M.: Burial and Origin of Permafrost-Derived Carbon in the Nearshore Zone of the Southern Canadian Beaufort Sea, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085 897, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085897, 2020. a
Gruber, N., Gloor, M., Mikaloff Fletcher, S. E., Doney, S. C., Dutkiewicz, S., Follows, M. J., Gerber, M., Jacobson, A. R., Joos, F., Lindsay, K., Menemenlis, D., Mouchet, A., Müller, S. A., Sarmiento, J. L., and Takahashi, T.: Oceanic sources, sinks, and transport of atmospheric CO2, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB1005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003349, 2009. a
Guo, H., John, J. G., Blanton, C., McHugh, C., Nikonov, S., Radhakrishnan, A., Rand, K., Zadeh, N. T., Balaji, V., Durachta, J., Dupuis, C., Menzel, R., Robinson, T., Underwood, S., Vahlenkamp, H., Bushuk, M., Dunne, K. A., Dussin, R., Gauthier, P. P., Ginoux, P., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R., Harrison, M., Hurlin, W., Malyshev, S., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Paynter, D. J., Ploshay, J., Reichl, B. G., Schwarzkopf, D. M., Seman, C. J., Shao, A., Silvers, L., Wyman, B., Yan, X., Zeng, Y., Adcroft, A., Dunne, J. P., Held, I. M., Krasting, J. P., Horowitz, L. W., Milly, P., Shevliakova, E., Winton, M., Zhao, M., and Zhang, R.: NOAA-GFDL GFDL-CM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20180701, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1402, 2018a. a
Guo, H., John, J. G., Blanton, C., McHugh, C., Nikonov, S., Radhakrishnan, A., Zadeh, N. T., Balaji, V., Durachta, J., Dupuis, C., Menzel, R., Robinson, T., Underwood, S., Vahlenkamp, H., Dunne, K. A., Gauthier, P. P., Ginoux, P., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R., Harrison, M., Hurlin, W., Lin, P., Malyshev, S., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Paynter, D. J., Ploshay, J., Schwarzkopf, D. M., Seman, C. J., Shao, A., Silvers, L., Wyman, B., Yan, X., Zeng, Y., Adcroft, A., Dunne, J. P., Held, I. M., Krasting, J. P., Horowitz, L. W., Milly, C., Shevliakova, E., Winton, M., Zhao, M., and Zhang, R.: NOAA-GFDL GFDL-CM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20180701, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.9242, 2018b. a
Hajima, T., Abe, M., Arakawa, O., Suzuki, T., Komuro, Y., Ogura, T., Ogochi, K., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Tatebe, H., Noguchi, M. A., Ohgaito, R., Ito, A., Yamazaki, D., Ito, A., Takata, K., Watanabe, S., Kawamiya, M., and Tachiiri, K.: MIROC MIROC-ES2L model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20190823, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.902, 2019. a
Hajima, T., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Tatebe, H., Noguchi, M. A., Abe, M., Ohgaito, R., Ito, A., Yamazaki, D., Okajima, H., Ito, A., Takata, K., Ogochi, K., Watanabe, S., and Kawamiya, M.: Development of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and the evaluation of biogeochemical processes and feedbacks, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2197–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2197-2020, 2020. a
Hall, A. and Qu, X.: Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025127, 2006. a
Hall, A., Cox, P., Huntingford, C., and Klein, S.: Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change, Nat, Clim. Change, 9, 269–278, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6, 2019. a, b, c
Haugan, P. M. and Drange, H.: Effects of CO2 on the ocean environment, Energ. Convers. Manage., 37, 1019–1022,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0196-8904(95)00292-8, 1996. a
Held, I. M., Guo, H., Adcroft, A., Dunne, J. P., Horowitz, L. W., Krasting, J., Shevliakova, E., Winton, M., Zhao, M., Bushuk, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B., Xiang, B., Zhang, R., Anderson, W., Balaji, V., Donner, L., Dunne, K., Durachta, J., Gauthier, P. P. G., Ginoux, P., Golaz, J.-C., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R., Harris, L., Harrison, M., Hurlin, W., John, J., Lin, P., Lin, S.-J., Malyshev, S., Menzel, R., Milly, P. C. D., Ming, Y., Naik, V., Paynter, D., Paulot, F., Rammaswamy, V., Reichl, B., Robinson, T., Rosati, A., Seman, C., Silvers, L. G., Underwood, S., and Zadeh, N.: Structure and Performance of GFDL's CM4.0 Climate Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 3691–3727, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001829, 2019. a
Jakobsson, M.: Hypsometry and volume of the Arctic Ocean and its constituent seas, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 3, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GC000302, 2002. a
Jeansson, E., Olsen, A., Eldevik, T., Skjelvan, I., Omar, A. M., Lauvset, S. K., Nilsen, J. E. O., Bellerby, R. G. J., Johannessen, T., and Falck, E.: The Nordic Seas carbon budget: Sources, sinks, and uncertainties, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 25, GB4010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GB003961, 2011. a, b
John, J. G., Blanton, C., McHugh, C., Radhakrishnan, A., Rand, K., Vahlenkamp, H., Wilson, C., Zadeh, N. T., Gauthier, P. P., Dunne, J. P., Dussin, R., Horowitz, L. W., Lin, P., Malyshev, S., Naik, V., Ploshay, J., Silvers, L., Stock, C., Winton, M., and Zeng, Y.: NOAA-GFDL GFDL-ESM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20180701, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1414, 2018. a
Jones, E., Rudels, B., and Anderson, L.: Deep waters of the Arctic Ocean: origins and circulation, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 42, 737–760, https://doi.org/10.1016/0967-0637(95)00013-V, 1995. a
Jungclaus, J., Bittner, M., Wieners, K.-H., Wachsmann, F., Schupfner, M., Legutke, S., Giorgetta, M., Reick, C., Gayler, V., Haak, H., de Vrese, P., Raddatz, T., Esch, M., Mauritsen, T., von Storch, J.-S., Behrens, J., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Hagemann, S., Hohenegger, C., Jahns, T., Kloster, S., Kinne, S., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Notz, D., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Rast, S., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stevens, B., Voigt, A., and Roeckner, E.: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20190710, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.741, 2019. a
Karnovsky, N. J., Hobson, K. A., Iverson, S., and Hunt Jr, G. L.: Seasonal changes in diets of seabirds in the North Water Polynya: a multiple-indicator approach, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 357, 291–299, https://doi.org/10.3354/meps07295, 2008. a, b, c
Knutti, R., Masson, D., and Gettelman, A.: Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1194–1199, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50256, 2013. a
Koenigk, T., Brodeau, L., Graversen, R. G., Karlsson, J., Svensson, G., Tjernström, M., Willén, U., and Wyser, K.: Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth, Clim. Dyn., 40, 2719–2743, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1505-y, 2013. a, b
Kottmeier, D. M., Rokitta, S. D., and Rost, B.: H+-driven increase in CO2 uptake and decrease in uptake explain coccolithophores' acclimation responses to ocean acidification, Limnol. Oceanogr., 61, 2045–2057, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10352, 2016. a, b
Krasting, J. P., John, J. G., Blanton, C., McHugh, C., Nikonov, S., Radhakrishnan, A., Rand, K., Zadeh, N. T., Balaji, V., Durachta, J., Dupuis, C., Menzel, R., Robinson, T., Underwood, S., Vahlenkamp, H., Dunne, K. A., Gauthier, P. P., Ginoux, P., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R., Harrison, M., Hurlin, W., Malyshev, S., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Paynter, D. J., Ploshay, J., Schwarzkopf, D. M., Seman, C. J., Silvers, L., Wyman, B., Zeng, Y., Adcroft, A., Dunne, J. P., Dussin, R., Guo, H., He, J., Held, I. M., Horowitz, L. W., Lin, P., Milly, P., Shevliakova, E., Stock, C., Winton, M., Xie, Y., and Zhao, M.: NOAA-GFDL GFDL-ESM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20190726, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1407, 2018. a
Kunz, K. L., Claireaux, G., Pörtner, H.-O., Knust, R., and Mark, F. C.: Aerobic capacities and swimming performance of polar cod (Boreogadus saida) under ocean acidification and warming conditions, J. Exp. Biol., 221, jeb184473, https://doi.org/10.1242/jeb.184473, 2018. a
Kwiatkowski, L. and Orr, J. C.: Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 141–145, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0054-0, 2018. a
Kwiatkowski, L., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Ciais, P., Cox, P. M., Laufkötter, C., Li, Y., and Séférian, R.: Emergent constraints on projections of declining primary production in the tropical oceans, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 355–358, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3265, 2017. a, b
Kwiatkowski, L., Torres, O., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Chamberlain, M., Christian, J. R., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., Lenton, A., Li, H., Lovenduski, N. S., Orr, J. C., Palmieri, J., Santana-Falcón, Y., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Stock, C. A., Tagliabue, A., Takano, Y., Tjiputra, J., Toyama, K., Tsujino, H., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Yool, A., and Ziehn, T.: Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections, Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Lauvset, S. K., Key, R. M., Olsen, A., van Heuven, S., Velo, A., Lin, X., Schirnick, C., Kozyr, A., Tanhua, T., Hoppema, M., Jutterström, S., Steinfeldt, R., Jeansson, E., Ishii, M., Perez, F. F., Suzuki, T., and Watelet, S.: A new global interior ocean mapped climatology: the GLODAP version 2, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 325–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-325-2016, 2016 (data available at: https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/ocads/oceans/GLODAPv2_2019/, last access: 20 March 2017). a, b, c, d, e
Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V., Baranova, O. K., Boyer, T. P., Zweng, M. M., Garcia, H. E., Reagan, J. R., Seidov, D., Weathers, K., Paver, C. R., and Smolyar, I.: World Ocean Atlas 2018, Volume 1: Temperature, Tech. Rep., A. Mishonov Technical Ed.; NOAA Atlas NESDIS 81, available at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/world-ocean-atlas-2018/ (last access: 31 March 2021), 2018. a, b
Lovenduski, N. S., Gruber, N., Doney, S. C., and Lima, I. D.: Enhanced CO2 outgassing in the Southern Ocean from a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode, Gl. Biogeochem. Cy., 21, GB2026, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002900, 2007. a, b
Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Fläschner, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D. S., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jimenéz-de-la Cuesta, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S., Kracher, D., Kinne, S., Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B., Müller, W. A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nam, C. C. W., Notz, D., Nyawira, S.-S., Paulsen, H., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp, M., Raddatz, T. J., Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Rohrschneider, T., Schemann, V., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K. D., Stein, L., Stemmler, I., Stevens, B., von Storch, J.-S., Tian, F., Voigt, A., Vrese, P., Wieners, K.-H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Winkler, A., and Roeckner, E.: Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 998–1038, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001400, 2019. a, b
McNeil, B. I. and Sasse, T. P.: Future ocean hypercapnia driven by anthropogenic amplification of the natural CO2 cycle, Nature, 529, 383–386, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16156, 2016. a
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M., Lamarque, J.-F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S., Raper, S., Riahi, K., Thomson, A.,
Velders, G. J. M., and van Vuuren, D. P. P.: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Clim. Change, 109, 213, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011. a, b, c
Meinshausen, M., Vogel, E., Nauels, A., Lorbacher, K., Meinshausen, N., Etheridge, D. M., Fraser, P. J., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Trudinger, C. M., Krummel, P. B., Beyerle, U., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., Enting, I. G., Law, R. M., Lunder, C. R., O'Doherty, S., Prinn, R. G., Reimann, S., Rubino, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., Wang, R. H. J., and Weiss, R.: Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017. a, b
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., and Wang, R. H. J.: The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Midttun, L.: Formation of dense bottom water in the Barents Sea, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 32, 1233–1241, https://doi.org/10.1016/0198-0149(85)90006-8, 1985. a, b, c, d
Mikaloff Fletcher, S. E., Gruber, N., Jacobson, A. R., Doney, S. C., Dutkiewicz, S., Gerber, M., Follows, M., Joos, F., Lindsay, K., Menemenlis, D., Mouchet, A., Müller, S. A., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Inverse estimates of anthropogenic CO2 uptake, transport, and storage by the ocean, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, GB2002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GB002530, 2006. a
Müller, W. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Mauritsen, T., Baehr, J., Bittner, M., Budich, R., Bunzel, F., Esch, M., Ghosh, R., Haak, H., Ilyina, T., Kleine, T., Kornblueh, L., Li, H., Modali, K., Notz, D., Pohlmann, H., Roeckner, E., Stemmler, I., Tian, F., and Marotzke, J.: A Higher-resolution Version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 1383–1413, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001217, 2018. a
Nummelin, A., Ilicak, M., Li, C., and Smedsrud, L. H.: Consequences of future increased Arctic runoff on Arctic Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice cover, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 121, 617–637, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011156, 2016. a, b
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016. a
Orr, J. C. and Epitalon, J.-M.: Improved routines to model the ocean carbonate system: mocsy 2.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 485–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-485-2015, 2015. a
Orr, J. C., Fabry, V. J., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Feely, R. A., Gnanadesikan, A., Gruber, N., Ishida, A., Joos, F., Key, R. M.,
Lindsay, K., Maier-Reimer, E., Matear, R., Monfray, P.,
Mouchet, A., Najjar, R. G.,
Plattner, G.-K.,
Rodgers, K. B.,
Sabine, C. L.,
Sarmiento, J. L.,
Schlitzer, R.,
Slater, R. D.,
Totterdell, I. J., Weirig, M.-F.,
Yamanaka, Y., and Yool, A.: Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms, Nature, 437, 681–686, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04095, 2005. a, b, c
Orr, J. C., Najjar, R. G., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Bullister, J. L., Danabasoglu, G., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Dutay, J.-C., Graven, H., Griffies, S. M., John, J. G., Joos, F., Levin, I., Lindsay, K., Matear, R. J., McKinley, G. A., Mouchet, A., Oschlies, A., Romanou, A., Schlitzer, R., Tagliabue, A., Tanhua, T., and Yool, A.: Biogeochemical protocols and diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2169–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, 2017. a
O'Gorman, P. A.: Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change, Nat. Geosci., 5, 697–700, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1568, 2012. a
Rawlins, M. A., Steele, M., Holland, M. M., Adam, J. C., Cherry, J. E., Francis, J. A., Groisman, P. Y., Hinzman, L. D., Huntington, T. G., Kane, D. L., Kimball, J. S., Kwok, R., Lammers, R. B., Lee, C. M., Lettenmaier, D. P., McDonald, K. C., Podest, E., Pundsack, J. W., Rudels, B., Serreze, M. C., Shiklomanov, A., Skagseth, O., Troy, T. J., Vörösmarty, C. J., Wensnahan, M., Wood, E. F., Woodgate, R., Yang, D., Zhang, K., and Zhang, T.: Analysis of the Arctic System for Freshwater Cycle Intensification: Observations and Expectations, J. Clim., 23, 5715–5737, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3421.1, 2010. a
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., KC, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Da Silva, L. A., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D., Masui, T., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C., Kainuma, M., Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., and Tavoni, M.: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environ. Chang., 42, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, 2017. a, b, c
Riebesell, U., Gattuso, J.-P., Thingstad, T. F., and Middelburg, J. J.: Arctic ocean acidification: pelagic ecosystem and biogeochemical responses during a mesocosm study, Biogeosciences, 10, 5619–5626, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5619-2013, 2013. a, b
Rudels, B.: Arctic Ocean circulation, processes and water masses: A description of observations and ideas with focus on the period prior to the International Polar Year 2007–2009, Prog. Oceanog., 132, 22–67, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2013.11.006, 2015. a
Rudels, B., Jones, E. P., Anderson, L. G., and Kattner, G.: On theintermediate depth waters of the Arctic Ocean, in: The role ofthe Polar Oceans in Shaping the Global Climate, edited by: Johannessen, O. M., Muench, R. D., and Overland, J. E., American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, 33–46,
https://doi.org/10.1029/GM085p0033, 1994. a, b, c
Rudels, B., Muench, R. D., Gunn, J., Schauer, U., and Friedrich, H. J.: Evolution of the Arctic Ocean boundary current north of the Siberian shelves, J. Mar. Sys., 25, 77–99, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0924-7963(00)00009-9, 2000. a, b
Sanderson, B. M., Knutti, R., and Caldwell, P.: A Representative Democracy to Reduce Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble, J. Clim., 28, 5171–5194, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00362.1, 2015. a
Schlund, M., Lauer, A., Gentine, P., Sherwood, S. C., and Eyring, V.: Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1233–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020, 2020. a
Schmidt, M., Windisch, H. S., Ludwichowski, K.-U., Seegert, S. L. L., Pörtner, H.-O., Storch, D., and Bock, C.: Differences in neurochemical profiles of two gadid species under ocean warming and acidification, Front. Zool., 14, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1186/s12983-017-0238-5, 2017. a
Schupfner, M., Wieners, K.-H., Wachsmann, F., Steger, C., Bittner, M., Jungclaus, J., Früh, B., Pankatz, K., Giorgetta, M., Reick, C., Legutke, S., Esch, M., Gayler, V., Haak, H., de Vrese, P., Raddatz, T., Mauritsen, T., von Storch, J.-S., Behrens, J., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Hagemann, S., Hohenegger, C., Jahns, T., Kloster, S., Kinne, S., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Notz, D., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Rast, S., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stevens, B., Voigt, A., and Roeckner, E.: DKRZ MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP,
Version 20190710, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2450, 2019. a
Seferian, R.: CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20181206, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1391, 2018a. a
Seferian, R.: CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20191021, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1395, 2018b. a
Séférian, R., Berthet, S., Yool, A., Palmieri, J., Bopp, L., Tagliabue, A., Kwiatkowski, L., Aumont, O., Christian, J., Dunne, J., Gehlen, M.,
Ilyina, T., John, J. G., Li, H., Long, M. C.,
Luo, J. Y., Nakano, H., Romanou, A., Schwinger, J., Stock, C.,
Santana-Falcón, Y.,
Takano, Y., Tjiputra, J., Tsujino, H., Watanabe, M., Wu, T.,
Wu, F., and Yamamoto, A.: Tracking improvement in simulated marine biogeochemistry between CMIP5 and CMIP6, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 6, 95–119, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0, 2020. a, b, c, d, e
Sellar, A. A., Jones, C. G., Mulcahy, J. P., Tang, Y., Yool, A., Wiltshire, A., O'Connor, F. M., Stringer, M., Hill, R., Palmieri, J., Woodward, S., de Mora, L., Kuhlbrodt, T., Rumbold, S. T., Kelley, D. I., Ellis, R., Johnson, C. E., Walton, J., Abraham, N. L., Andrews, M. B., Andrews, T., Archibald, A. T., Berthou, S., Burke, E., Blockley, E., Carslaw, K., Dalvi, M., Edwards, J., Folberth, G. A., Gedney, N., Griffiths, P. T., Harper, A. B., Hendry, M. A., Hewitt, A. J., Johnson, B., Jones, A., Jones, C. D., Keeble, J., Liddicoat, S., Morgenstern, O., Parker, R. J., Predoi, V., Robertson, E., Siahaan, A., Smith, R. S., Swaminathan, R., Woodhouse, M. T., Zeng, G., and Zerroukat, M.: UKESM1: Description and Evaluation of the U. K. Earth System Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4513–4558, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001739, 2019. a
Smedsrud, L. H., Esau, I., Ingvaldsen, R. B., Eldevik, T., Haugan, P. M., Li, C., Lien, V. S., Olsen, A., Omar, A. M., Otterå, O. H., Risebrobakken, B., Sandø, A. B., Semenov, V. A., and Sorokina, S. A.: The role of the Barents Sea in the Arctic climate system, Rev. Geophys., 51, 415–449, https://doi.org/10.1002/rog.20017, 2013. a, b, c
Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Frölicher, T. L., Plattner, G.-K., and Doney, S. C.: Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model, Biogeosciences, 6, 515–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-515-2009, 2009. a
Steiner, N. S., Christian, J. R., Six, K. D., Yamamoto, A., and Yamamoto-Kawai, M.: Future ocean acidification in the Canada Basin and surrounding Arctic Ocean from CMIP5 earth system models, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 332–347, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009069, 2013. a, b
Stock, C. A., Dunne, J. P., Fan, S., Ginoux, P., John, J., Krasting, J. P., Laufkötter, C., Paulot, F., and Zadeh, N.: Ocean Biogeochemistry in GFDL's Earth System Model 4.1 and its Response to Increasing Atmospheric CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002043, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002043, 2020. a
Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., Winter, B., and Sigmond, M.: CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Tech. Rep., Version v20190429, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1303, 2019a. a
Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., Winter, B., and Sigmond, M.: CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, Tech. Rep., Version v20190429, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1317, 2019b. a
Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., Winter, B., and Sigmond, M.: CCCma CanESM5-CanOE model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Tech. Rep., Version v20190429, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10205, 2019c. a
Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., Winter, B., and Sigmond, M.: CCCma CanESM5-CanOE model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, Tech. Rep., Version v20190429, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10207, 2019d. a
Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N. S., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Hanna, S., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Sigmond, M., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., and Winter, B.: The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5.0.3), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4823–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019, 2019e. a, b
Séférian, R., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Saint-Martin, D., Voldoire, A., Colin, J., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Berthet, S., Chevallier, M., Sénési, S., Franchisteguy, L., Vial, J., Mallet, M., Joetzjer, E., Geoffroy, O., Guérémy, J.-F., Moine, M.-P., Msadek, R., Ribes, A., Rocher, M., Roehrig, R., Salas-y Mélia, D., Sanchez, E., Terray, L., Valcke, S., Waldman, R., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Deshayes, J., Éthé, C., and Madec, G.: Evaluation of CNRM Earth System Model, CNRM-ESM2-1: Role of Earth System Processes in Present-Day and Future Climate, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4182–4227, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001791, 2019. a
Tachiiri, K., Abe, M., Hajima, T., Arakawa, O., Suzuki, T., Komuro, Y., Ogochi, K., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Tatebe, H., Noguchi, M. A., Ohgaito, R., Ito, A., Yamazaki, D., Ito, A., Takata, K., Watanabe, S., and Kawamiya, M.: MIROC MIROC-ES2L model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20190823, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.936, 2019. a
Tang, Y., Rumbold, S., Ellis, R., Kelley, D., Mulcahy, J., Sellar, A., Walton, J., and Jones, C.: MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20190627, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1569, 2019. a
Tank, S. E., Raymond, P. A., Striegl, R. G., McClelland, J. W., Holmes, R. M., Fiske, G. J., and Peterson, B. J.: A land-to-ocean perspective on the magnitude, source and implication of DIC flux from major Arctic rivers to the Arctic Ocean, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 26, GB4018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GB004192, 2012. a
Terhaar, J., Orr, J. C., Ethé, C., Regnier, P., and Bopp, L.: Simulated Arctic Ocean Response to Doubling of Riverine Carbon and Nutrient Delivery, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 33, 1048–1070, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GB006200, 2019a. a, b
Terhaar, J., Orr, J. C., Gehlen, M., Ethé, C., and Bopp, L.: Model constraints on the anthropogenic carbon budget of the Arctic Ocean, Biogeosciences, 16, 2343–2367, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2343-2019, 2019b. a, b, c
Ulfsbo, A., Jones, E. M., Casacuberta, N., Korhonen, M., Rabe, B., Karcher, M., and van Heuven, S. M.: Rapid Changes in Anthropogenic Carbon Storage and Ocean Acidification in the Intermediate Layers of the Eurasian Arctic Ocean: 1996–2015, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 32, 1254–1275, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017GB005738, 2018. a, b
Waldbusser, G. G. and Salisbury, J. E.: Ocean Acidification in the Coastal Zone from an Organism's Perspective: Multiple System Parameters, Frequency Domains, and Habitats, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 6, 221–247, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-121211-172238, 2014. a
Wanninkhof, R., Barbero, L., Byrne, R., Cai, W.-J., Huang, W.-J., Zhang, J.-Z., Baringer, M., and Langdon, C.: Ocean acidification along the Gulf Coast and East Coast of the USA, Cont. Shelf Res., 98, 54–71, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2015.02.008, 2015. a
Wenzel, S., Cox, P. M., Eyring, V., and Friedlingstein, P.: Emergent constraints on climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in the CMIP5 Earth system models, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 119, 794–807, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JG002591, 2014. a, b
Wieners, K.-H., Giorgetta, M., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C., Esch, M., Bittner, M., Gayler, V., Haak, H., de Vrese, P., Raddatz, T., Mauritsen, T., von Storch, J.-S., Behrens, J., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Hagemann, S., Hohenegger, C., Jahns, T., Kloster, S., Kinne, S., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Notz, D., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Rast, S., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stevens, B., Voigt, A., and Roeckner, E.: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20190710, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.793, 2019a. a
Wieners, K.-H., Giorgetta, M., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C., Esch, M., Bittner, M., Legutke, S., Schupfner, M., Wachsmann, F., Gayler, V., Haak, H., de Vrese, P., Raddatz, T., Mauritsen, T., von Storch, J.-S., Behrens, J., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Hagemann, S., Hohenegger, C., Jahns, T., Kloster, S., Kinne, S., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Notz, D., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Rast, S., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stevens, B., Voigt, A., and Roeckner, E.: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20190710, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.742, 2019b. a
Woosley, R. J. and Millero, F. J.: Freshening of the western Arctic negates anthropogenic carbon uptake potential, Limnol. Oceanogr., 65, 1834–1846, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11421, 2020. a, b, c, d
Xue, L. and Cai, W.-J.: Total alkalinity minus dissolved inorganic carbon as a proxy for deciphering ocean acidification mechanisms, Mar. Chem., 222, 103 791, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marchem.2020.103791, 2020. a, b
Yamamoto-Kawai, M., McLaughlin, F. A., and Carmack, E. C.: Effects of ocean acidification, warming and melting of sea ice on aragonite saturation of the Canada Basin surface water, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L03601, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045501, 2011. a
Yukimoto, S., Kawai, H., Koshiro, T., Oshima, N., Yoshida, K., Urakawa, S., Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Tanaka, T., Hosaka, M., Yabu, S., Yoshimura, H., Shindo, E., Mizuta, R., Obata, A., Adachi, Y., and Ishii, M.: The Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model Version 2.0, MRI-ESM2.0: Description and Basic Evaluation of the Physical Component, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 97, 931–965, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2019-051, 2019a. a
Yukimoto, S., Koshiro, T., Kawai, H., Oshima, N., Yoshida, K., Urakawa, S., Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Tanaka, T., Hosaka, M., Yoshimura, H., Shindo, E., Mizuta, R., Ishii, M., Obata, A., and Adachi, Y.: MRI MRI-ESM2.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20191205, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.621, 2019b. a
Yukimoto, S., Koshiro, T., Kawai, H., Oshima, N., Yoshida, K., Urakawa, S., Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Tanaka, T., Hosaka, M., Yoshimura, H., Shindo, E., Mizuta, R., Ishii, M., Obata, A., and Adachi, Y.: MRI MRI-ESM2.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20200120, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.638, 2019c. a
Ziehn, T., Chamberlain, M., Lenton, A., Law, R., Bodman, R., Dix, M., Wang, Y., Dobrohotoff, P., Srbinovsky, J., Stevens, L., Vohralik, P., Mackallah, C., Sullivan, A., O'Farrell, S., and Druken, K.: CSIRO ACCESS-ESM1.5 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20191112, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2288, 2019a. a
Ziehn, T., Chamberlain, M., Lenton, A., Law, R., Bodman, R., Dix, M., Wang, Y., Dobrohotoff, P., Srbinovsky, J., Stevens, L., Vohralik, P., Mackallah, C., Sullivan, A., O'Farrell, S., and Druken, K.: CSIRO ACCESS-ESM1.5 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, Tech. Rep., Version 20191115, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2291, 2019b. a
Ziehn, T., Chamberlain, M., Law, R., Lenton, A., Bodman, R., Dix, M., Stevens, L., Wang, Y., and Srbinovsky, J.: The Australian Earth System Model: ACCESS-ESM1. 5., Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science (JSHESS), https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19035, 2020. a
Zweng, M. M., Reagan, J. R., Seidov, D., Boyer, T. P., Locarnini, R. A., Garcia, H. E., Mishonov, A. V., Baranova, O. K., Weathers, K., Paver, C. R., and Smolyar, I.: World Ocean Atlas 2018, Volume 2: Salinity, Tech. Rep., A. Mishonov Technical Ed.; NOAA Atlas NESDIS 81, available at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/world-ocean-atlas-2018/ (last access: 31 March 2021), 2018.
a, b
Årthun, M., Ingvaldsen, R., Smedsrud, L., and Schrum, C.: Dense water formation and circulation in the Barents Sea, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 58, 801–817, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2011.06.001, 2011. a
Short summary
The uptake of carbon, emitted as a result of human activities, results in ocean acidification. We analyse 21st-century projections of acidification in the Arctic Ocean, a region of particular vulnerability, using the latest generation of Earth system models. In this new generation of models there is a large decrease in the uncertainty associated with projections of Arctic Ocean acidification, with freshening playing a greater role in driving acidification than previously simulated.
The uptake of carbon, emitted as a result of human activities, results in ocean acidification....
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint