Articles | Volume 21, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 23 Jan 2024
| 23 Jan 2024
Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized simulation and a scenario simulation of negative emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models
Ali Asaadi
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre & Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre & Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Hanna Lee
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre & Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
Jerry Tjiputra
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre & Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Vivek Arora
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Roland Séférian
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Meteo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Spencer Liddicoat
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Tomohiro Hajima
Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan
Yeray Santana-Falcón
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Meteo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Chris D. Jones
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, UK
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Cited
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Marine ecosystem role in setting up preindustrial and future climate J. Tjiputra et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57371-y
- Fair carbon removal obligations under climate response uncertainty G. Ganti et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2025.2481138
- flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions B. Sanderson et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025
- Temperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model Y. Moustakis et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52508-x
- Assessment of the carbon cycle in the arctic land shelf system, case study: consortium “Global Earth Changes” V. Dyomin & S. Kirpotin https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-025-06544-9
- Carbon cycle and climate feedbacks under CO2 and non-CO2 overshoot pathways I. Melnikova et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025
- Implications of overshoot for climate mitigation strategies M. Tavoni et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02563-7
- Scenarios, projections, and climate-related risks V. Masson-Delmotte https://doi.org/10.5802/crgeos.323
- Interplay between climate and carbon cycle feedbacks could substantially enhance future warming C. Kaufhold et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb6be
- Role of vegetation in modulating East Asian surface temperature changes in earth system models H. Park et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05647-0
- Deep learning model anticipates climate change induced reduction in major commodity crop yields for Canada in 2050 A. Bhullar et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2026.1748516
- A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs) M. Meinshausen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024
- Marine carbon sink dominated by biological pump after temperature overshoot W. Koeve et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01541-y
- Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model R. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Marine ecosystem role in setting up preindustrial and future climate J. Tjiputra et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57371-y
- Fair carbon removal obligations under climate response uncertainty G. Ganti et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2025.2481138
- flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions B. Sanderson et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025
- Temperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model Y. Moustakis et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52508-x
- Assessment of the carbon cycle in the arctic land shelf system, case study: consortium “Global Earth Changes” V. Dyomin & S. Kirpotin https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-025-06544-9
- Carbon cycle and climate feedbacks under CO2 and non-CO2 overshoot pathways I. Melnikova et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025
- Implications of overshoot for climate mitigation strategies M. Tavoni et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02563-7
- Scenarios, projections, and climate-related risks V. Masson-Delmotte https://doi.org/10.5802/crgeos.323
- Interplay between climate and carbon cycle feedbacks could substantially enhance future warming C. Kaufhold et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb6be
- Role of vegetation in modulating East Asian surface temperature changes in earth system models H. Park et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05647-0
- Deep learning model anticipates climate change induced reduction in major commodity crop yields for Canada in 2050 A. Bhullar et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2026.1748516
- A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs) M. Meinshausen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024
- Marine carbon sink dominated by biological pump after temperature overshoot W. Koeve et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01541-y
- Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model R. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 27 Jul 2026
Short summary
Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2...
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