Uncertainties in carbon emissions from land use and land cover change in Indonesia

Brasika, Ida Bagus Mandhara; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Sitch, Stephen; O'Sullivan, Michael; Duran-Rojas, Maria Carolina; Rosan, Thais Michele; Goldewijk, Kees Klein; Pongratz, Julia; Schwingshackl, Clemens; Chini, Louise P.; Hurtt, George C.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3547-2025

Articles | Volume 22, issue 14

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3547-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3547-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 14

Research article

|

25 Jul 2025

Research article |

| 25 Jul 2025

Uncertainties in carbon emissions from land use and land cover change in Indonesia

Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Maria Carolina Duran-Rojas, Thais Michele Rosan, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Louise P. Chini, and George C. Hurtt

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3547-2025-supplement

Data sets

JULES-ES of carbon emissions from land use change (ELUC) in Indonesia I. B. M. Brasika https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15552387

Land-Use Harmonization 2 for Global Carbon Budget 2022 (LUH2-GCB2022) L. Chini and G. Hurtt https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15556812

Harmonization of Global Land Use Change and Management for the Period 850-2015 G. Hurtt et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.10454

Model code and software

JULES-ES code for carbon emissions from land use change (ELUC) in Indonesia: u-db861 I. B. M. Brasika https://code.metoffice.gov.uk/trac/roses-u/browser/d/b/8/6/1/trunk?rev=304290

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Short summary

Indonesia is the world's third-highest carbon emitter from land use change. However, there are uncertainties in the carbon emissions of Indonesia. Our best estimate of carbon emissions from land use change in Indonesia is 0.12 ± 0.02 PgC/yr with a steady trend. Despite many uncertainties created by drivers, models, and products, we also found robust agreements between these models and products. All agree that Indonesian carbon emissions from LULCC (land use and land cover change) have had no decreasing trend for the last 2 decades.