Articles | Volume 22, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5231-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5231-2025
Research article
 | 
01 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 01 Oct 2025

Drivers of and uncertainty in Amazon carbon sink long-term and interannual variability in CMIP6 models

Matteo Mastropierro, Daniele Peano, and Davide Zanchettin

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Cited articles

Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.: Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008, 2012. 
Baker, J. C. A., Garcia-Carreras, L., Gloor, M., Marsham, J. H., Buermann, W., da Rocha, H. R., Nobre, A. D., de Araujo, A. C., and Spracklen, D. V.: Evapotranspiration in the Amazon: spatial patterns, seasonality, and recent trends in observations, reanalysis, and climate models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2279–2300, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2279-2021, 2021. 
Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Bayr, T., Reintges, A., and Latif, M.: Uncertainty of ENSO-amplitude projections in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, Clim. Dynam., 56, 3875–3888, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05673-4, 2021. 
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Short summary
We analyse how Earth system models represent vegetation carbon flux variability in the Amazon. By assessing environmental factors influencing vegetation, we identified CO2 fertilization, photosynthetic sensitivity to solar radiation and heterotrophic respiration as key sources of model uncertainty under climate change. We also identified a stronger El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven temperature impact under global warming. Reducing these uncertainties will enhance the reliability of tropical carbon–climate projections.
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