Biogeosciences
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Articles | Volume 22, issue 19
Articles | Volume 22, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5231-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5231-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 19
Research article
 | 
01 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 01 Oct 2025

Drivers of and uncertainty in Amazon carbon sink long-term and interannual variability in CMIP6 models

Matteo Mastropierro, Daniele Peano, and Davide Zanchettin

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Short summary
We analyse how Earth system models represent vegetation carbon flux variability in the Amazon. By assessing environmental factors influencing vegetation, we identified CO2 fertilization, photosynthetic sensitivity to solar radiation and heterotrophic respiration as key sources of model uncertainty under climate change. We also identified a stronger El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven temperature impact under global warming. Reducing these uncertainties will enhance the reliability of tropical carbon–climate projections.
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