Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-841-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-841-2025
Research article
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18 Feb 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 18 Feb 2025

Toward more robust net primary production projections in the North Atlantic Ocean

Stéphane Doléac, Marina Lévy, Roy El Hourany, and Laurent Bopp

Data sets

Global Ocean Colour (Copernicus-GlobColour), Bio-Geo-Chemical, L4 (monthly and interpolated) from Satellite Observations (1997-ongoing) E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information (CMEMS) https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00281

Multi Observation Global Ocean 3D Temperature Salinity Height Geostrophic Current and MLD E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information (CMEMS) https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00052

Sea ice concentration daily gridded data from 1978 to present derived from satellite observations Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.3cd8b812

Model code and software

SOM-Toolbox ilarinieminen https://github.com/ilarinieminen/SOM-Toolbox

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Co-editor-in-chief
This study presents a new methodology to address the divergent projections of Net Primary Production in the North Atlantic Ocean in the last phase 6 of CMIP. The method is based on the process-based selection of models in the different ocean regions. This method can contribute to improve the reliability of climate change impact assessments on ecosystems and human societies.
Short summary
The marine biogeochemistry components of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models vary widely in their process representations. Using an innovative bioregionalization of the North Atlantic, we reveal that this model diversity largely drives the divergence in net primary production projections under a high-emission scenario. The identification of the most mechanistically realistic models allows for a substantial reduction in projection uncertainty.
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