Biogeosciences
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Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-841-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-841-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
Research article
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18 Feb 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 18 Feb 2025

Toward more robust net primary production projections in the North Atlantic Ocean

Stéphane Doléac, Marina Lévy, Roy El Hourany, and Laurent Bopp

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This study presents a new methodology to address the divergent projections of Net Primary Production in the North Atlantic Ocean in the last phase 6 of CMIP. The method is based on the process-based selection of models in the different ocean regions. This method can contribute to improve the reliability of climate change impact assessments on ecosystems and human societies.
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The marine biogeochemistry components of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models vary widely in their process representations. Using an innovative bioregionalization of the North Atlantic, we reveal that this model diversity largely drives the divergence in net primary production projections under a high-emission scenario. The identification of the most mechanistically realistic models allows for a substantial reduction in projection uncertainty.
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