Warmer growing seasons improve cereal yields in Northern Europe only with increasing precipitation

Tootoonchi, Faranak; Bergkvist, Göran; Vico, Giulia

doi:10.5194/bg-23-2583-2026

Articles | Volume 23, issue 7

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2583-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2583-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 23, issue 7

Research article

|

17 Apr 2026

Research article |

| 17 Apr 2026

Warmer growing seasons improve cereal yields in Northern Europe only with increasing precipitation

Faranak Tootoonchi, Göran Bergkvist, and Giulia Vico

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2583-2026-supplement

Data sets

CORINE Land Cover 2006 (raster 100 m), Europe, 6-yearly - version 2020_20u1, May 2020 European Environment Agency https://doi.org/10.2909/08560441-2fd5-4eb9-bf4c-9ef16725726a

E-OBS daily gridded meteorological data for Europe from 1950 to present derived from in-situ observations Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.151d3ec6

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Short summary

In Northern Europe, current temperatures limit the time available for soil preparation and crop growth. Warming may extend the growing season and improve growing conditions, but higher temperatures also increase evapotranspiration and raises the risk of water stress. We evaluated the role of various climatic conditions on crop yield fluctuations in Sweden over 1965–2020 and found that unless Sweden receives more rain in the growing season, crop yields will likely decrease with warming climates.