Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2583-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2583-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Apr 2026
Research article |
| 17 Apr 2026
| 17 Apr 2026
Warmer growing seasons improve cereal yields in Northern Europe only with increasing precipitation
Faranak Tootoonchi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of crop production ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Uppsala, Sweden
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
Göran Bergkvist
Department of crop production ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Uppsala, Sweden
Giulia Vico
Department of ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Uppsala, Sweden
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Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
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Short summary
In Northern Europe, current temperatures limit the time available for soil preparation and crop growth. Warming may extend the growing season and improve growing conditions, but higher temperatures also increase evapotranspiration and raises the risk of water stress. We evaluated the role of various climatic conditions on crop yield fluctuations in Sweden over 1965–2020 and found that unless Sweden receives more rain in the growing season, crop yields will likely decrease with warming climates.
In Northern Europe, current temperatures limit the time available for soil preparation and crop...
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