Articles | Volume 23, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-5983-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-5983-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
31 Aug 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 31 Aug 2026
| 31 Aug 2026
Natural disturbances from bark beetle outbreaks and windthrow increasingly affect Europe's most mature and carbon-rich forests
GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Alba Viana-Soto
Technical University of Munich, School of Life Sciences, Earth Observation for Ecosystem Management, Freising, Germany
Henrik Hartmann
Julius Kühn Institute (JKI) – Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants, Institute for Forest Protection, Quedlinburg, Germany
Faculty of Forest Sciences and Forest Ecology, Georg-August-University, Büsgenweg 5, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
Department of Biogeochemical Processes, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans Knoell Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
Marco Patacca
Sustainable Forest Ecosystems, Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Technical University of Munich, School of Life Sciences, Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management in Mountain Landscapes, Freising, Germany
Viola H. A. Heinrich
GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
Katja Kowalski
Technical University of Munich, School of Life Sciences, Earth Observation for Ecosystem Management, Freising, Germany
Maurizio Santoro
Gamma Remote Sensing, 3073 Gümligen, Switzerland
Wanda De Keersmaecker
Environmental Intelligence, Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Mol, Belgium
Ruben Van De Kerchove
Environmental Intelligence, Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Mol, Belgium
Martin Herold
GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Cornelius Senf
Technical University of Munich, School of Life Sciences, Earth Observation for Ecosystem Management, Freising, Germany
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6189, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth Observation (EO).
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Despite the recent strong reduction in European forest carbon uptake, a comparison of EU forest carbon losses from different datasets is still lacking. We quantify these carbon sink losses combining new high-resolution Earth Observation estimates of forest disturbance, EO-based bookkeeping models, atmospheric CO2 inversions, and National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (NGHGI). We highlight how EO and NGHGIs can benefit each other in better quantifying C losses in a comprehensive and timely manner.
Cornelius Senf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6304, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth Observation (EO).
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A framework that bridges between the technical realm of remote sensing and policy by outlining a clear definition of disturbance that distinguishes three hierarchical levels of information that can be derived from remote sensing.
Cornelius Senf, Felix Wieland-Glasmann, Katja Kowalski, Benjamin Jakimow, Anne-Katrin Behrens, Veronika Egger, Pia Emmert, Jonas Hänle, Marleen Hanzig, Jana Heinrich, Antonia Hostlowsky, Noah B. Maurer, Anabel Onay, Moritz Rachfahl, Klara Voggeneder, and Alba Viana-Soto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-422, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-422, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We provide a European database on forest disturbances, estimated from manual interpretation of satellite data. The database covers 35,000 sites and the years 1985-2023, resulting in 1,365,000 site-year combinations. We exemplify the use of our database by estimating disturbance rates and trends, and by comparing estimates against remote sensing products. Our database will help in better understanding forest change in Europe, and to decrease uncertainties in remote sensing-based assessments.
Siyuan Wang, Hui Yang, Sujan Koirala, Maurizio Santoro, Anna Candotti, Ulrich Weber, Ranit De, Claire Robin, Felix Cremer, Matthias Forkel, Markus Reichstein, and Nuno Carvalhais
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 5895–5913, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-5895-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-5895-2026, 2026
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Forest disturbances are difficult to predict in models because they occur randomly. We discovered that the long-term rules of disturbance known as
regimeleave a unique footprint in a forest's spatial biomass patterns. We trained a model on millions of computer simulations to learn this link. By applying this model to detailed satellite biomass, we could read these patterns to infer the disturbance regime globally, helping make climate projections more accurate.
Wanda De Keersmaecker, Astrid Verhegghen, Luc Bertels, Cornelius Senf, Alba Viana-Soto, Pieter Johannes Verkerk, Daniele Zanaga, and Ruben Van De Kerchove
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-329, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-329, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Konstantin Schellenberg, Sinikka J. Paulus, Ronald Queck, David Chaparro, Oliver Binks, Maurizio Mencuccini, Sharath S. Paligi, Henrik Hartmann, Christiane Schmullius, Clémence Dubois, and Thomas Jagdhuber
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1751, 2026
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We evaluated Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals to monitor forest water storage, helping to close an important observational gap in plant hydraulics and micrometeorology at stand-scale. We show that signal losses in the canopy are strongly linked to three-dimensionally modeled rainfall interception. However, detecting subtle fluxes, such as internal water dynamics, dew and intercepted light rain is inhibited by signal noise, and the hydraulics properties of the ecosystem.
Johanna Van Passel, Koenraad Van Meerbeek, Paulo Negri Bernardino, Wanda De Keersmaecker, Stef Lhermitte, Bianca Fazio Rius, and Ben Somers
Biogeosciences, 23, 2545–2567, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2545-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2545-2026, 2026
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The Amazon forest is important for carbon storage, but climate change might push parts of it towards a tipping point into a degraded state. By studying satellite trends and tree diversity across different spatial scales, we found a larger tipping risk at smaller spatial scales than for the whole region. We also found that higher tree diversity makes the forest more stable and thus less likely to tip, although the effect is relatively weak, highlighting the importance of protecting biodiversity.
Tazio Strozzi, Erik Schytt Mannerfelt, Oliver Cartus, Maurizio Santoro, Thomas Schellenberger, and Andreas Kääb
The Cryosphere, 20, 1679–1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1679-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1679-2026, 2026
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By analysing 30 years of satellite SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) data, we have found that the number of glacier surges over Svalbard has tripled since 2015. We show that this increase is unlikely to be explained solely by improvements in data quality or by random fluctuations in surge frequency, suggesting that this trend is caused by an external forcing mechanism. Given our incomplete understanding of surge initiation, the cause of the observed threefold increase remains however uncertain.
Joana Melo, Simone Rossi, Frédéric Achard, Ramdane Alkama, Josep G. Canadell, Sandro Federici, Pierre Friedlingstein, David Gibbs, Nancy Harris, Viola Heinrich, Michael O’Sullivan, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Melissa Rose, Rosa Roman-Cuesta, María J. Sanz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, and Giacomo Grassi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-631, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-631, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We created the LULUCF Data Hub to make information on how land use affects carbon dioxide emissions and removals more transparent and comparable among datasets. We show country-level data from national reports and global sources, allowing users to explore differences and similarities in land-based carbon fluxes. It helps identify where data agree, where they differ, and where more research is needed.
Myroslava Lesiv, Steffen Fritz, Martina Dürauer, Ivelina Georgieva, Marcel Buchhorn, Luc Bertels, Nandika Tsendbazar, Ruben Van De Kerchove, Daniele Zanaga, Dmitry Schepaschenko, Linda See, Martin Herold, Bruno Smets, Michael Cherlet, Andreas Brink, and Ian McCallum
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 6149–6155, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6149-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6149-2025, 2025
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This paper presents a unique global reference data set for land cover mapping at a 10 m resolution, aligned with Sentinel-2 imagery for the year 2015. It contains more than 16.5 million data records at a 10 m resolution (or 165 K data records at 100 m) and information on 12 different land cover classes. The data set was collected by a group of experts through visual interpretation of very high resolution imagery, along with other sources of information provided in the Geo-Wiki platform.
Alba Viana-Soto and Cornelius Senf
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2373–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2373-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2373-2025, 2025
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Europe's forests are undergoing complex changes in response to increasing disturbances driven by climate and land use changes. Here, we present the European Forest Disturbance Atlas, a satellite-based approach for mapping annual forest disturbances across continental Europe from 1985 onwards. Maps provide insights into the year of disturbance occurrence, the actual frequency of disturbances, severity and the underlying causal agent, thus contributing to a future monitoring system envisioned for Europe.
Brittany Engle, Ivan Bratoev, Morgan A. Crowley, Yanan Zhu, and Cornelius Senf
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2249–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2249-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2249-2025, 2025
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The pan-boreal lightning-ignited wildfire (BoLtFire) dataset spans the entire boreal forest from 2012 to 2022, focusing on fires of at least 200 ha. Developed using a new methodology to match lightning to wildfires in the boreal region, it includes 6902 fires – 4201 in Eurasia and 2701 in North America. BoLtFire provides new opportunities to model the ignition and spread dynamics of boreal wildfires and offers deeper insights into lightning-driven fire activity globally.
David A. Gibbs, Melissa Rose, Giacomo Grassi, Joana Melo, Simone Rossi, Viola Heinrich, and Nancy L. Harris
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1217–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1217-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1217-2025, 2025
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Updated global maps of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sequestration by forests from 2001 onwards using satellite-derived data show that forests are strong net carbon sinks, capturing about as much CO2 each year on average as the USA emitted from fossil fuels in 2019. After reclassifying fluxes to countries’ reporting categories for national GHG inventories, we found that roughly two-thirds of the net CO2 flux from forests is anthropogenic and one-third is non-anthropogenic.
Mauro Hermann, Matthias Röthlisberger, Arthur Gessler, Andreas Rigling, Cornelius Senf, Thomas Wohlgemuth, and Heini Wernli
Biogeosciences, 20, 1155–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1155-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1155-2023, 2023
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This study examines the multi-annual meteorological history of low-forest-greenness events in Europe's temperate and Mediterranean biome in 2002–2022. We systematically identify anomalies in temperature, precipitation, and weather systems as event precursors, with noteworthy differences between the two biomes. We also quantify the impact of the most extensive event in 2022 (37 % coverage), underlining the importance of understanding the forest–meteorology interaction in a changing climate.
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Editorial statement
European forests are an important carbon sink, but this sink and the carbon stocks that these forests contain are at risk from biotic disturbances and extreme events. Besnard and others use observations of forest changes to show that older and more carbon rich forests are disproportionately impacted by these events and are projected to become even more susceptible, emphasizing the role of proactive management to ensure forest resilience and diversity.
European forests are an important carbon sink, but this sink and the carbon stocks that these...
Short summary
Europe’s forests store vast amounts of carbon, but climate-driven disturbances are becoming more frequent. By combining satellite records with information on forest age and structure, we show that recent disturbances increasingly affect the oldest and most carbon-rich forests, particularly spruce forests in Central Europe. This emerging pattern puts long-accumulated carbon at risk and may reduce the long-term climate benefits provided by Europe’s forests.
Europe’s forests store vast amounts of carbon, but climate-driven disturbances are becoming more...
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