Articles | Volume 23, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-6409-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-6409-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Biome classification across global vegetation models reveals consistent biome shifts under future climate change
Simon Scheiter
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, Altenhoeferallee 1, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Jinfeng Chang
Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Agricultural Remote Sensing and Information Technology, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
Philippe Ciais
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Marie Dury
Institut scientifique de service public (ISSeP), Liège, Belgium
Unit for Modelling of Climate and Biogeochemical Cycles, UR-SPHERES, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Louis Francois
Unit for Modelling of Climate and Biogeochemical Cycles, UR-SPHERES, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Matthew Forrest
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Alexandra Henrot
Unit for Modelling of Climate and Biogeochemical Cycles, UR-SPHERES, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Christopher P. O. Reyer
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Sonia Seneviratne
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Jörg Steinkamp
Data Center, Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Anselm-Franz-von-Bentzelweg 12, 55128 Mainz, Germany
Wim Thiery
Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Department of Water and Climate, Brussels, Belgium
Wenfang Xu
South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510650, China
Thomas Hickler
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, Altenhoeferallee 1, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Cluster of Excellence (EXC 3121): TERRA – Terrestrial Geo-Biosphere Interactions in a Changing World, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
Model code and software
Biome classification across global vegetation models reveals consistent biome shifts under future climate change S. Scheiter https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22242595
Short summary
We show how climate change may reshape the world's major biomes, such as forests, grasslands, and tundra. Therefore, we combined dynamic vegetation models, machine learning and observation-based biome maps. We found that many biomes are likely to shift polewards as temperatures rise. Even under low-emission scenarios, large areas could change. These results help identify regions most susceptible to climate change and support global efforts to protect and manage natural ecosystems in the future.
We show how climate change may reshape the world's major biomes, such as forests, grasslands,...
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