Biogeosciences
Biogeosciences
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Articles | Volume 23, issue 18
Articles | Volume 23, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-6409-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-6409-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 23, issue 18
Research article
 | 
15 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 15 Sep 2026

Biome classification across global vegetation models reveals consistent biome shifts under future climate change

Simon Scheiter, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Louis Francois, Matthew Forrest, Alexandra Henrot, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Sonia Seneviratne, Jörg Steinkamp, Wim Thiery, Wenfang Xu, and Thomas Hickler

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Short summary
We show how climate change may reshape the world's major biomes, such as forests, grasslands, and tundra. Therefore, we combined dynamic vegetation models, machine learning and observation-based biome maps. We found that many biomes are likely to shift polewards as temperatures rise. Even under low-emission scenarios, large areas could change. These results help identify regions most susceptible to climate change and support global efforts to protect and manage natural ecosystems in the future.
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