Biogeosciences
Biogeosciences
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Articles | Volume 23, issue 21
Articles | Volume 23, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-7871-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-7871-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 23, issue 21
Research article
 | 
05 Nov 2026
Research article |  | 05 Nov 2026

Spatiotemporal variations of carbon-water-hydraulic risk for Pinus tabuliformis Carrière Plantations on the Loess Plateau under future climate change

Tianqi Guo, Zhongdian Zhang, Rui Liu, Xiaofei Wu, Xinmei Liu, Chenyi Ju, and Mingbin Huang

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Short summary
The persistence of Chinese pine plantations in restoration areas under future climate remains uncertain. We used a calibrated, improved biogeochemical model to simulate carbon, water, and hydraulic risk dynamics from 2000 to 2099. Our results show declining productivity alongside rising water consumption and hydraulic risk, driving an overall 23 %–44 % drop in ecological sustainability. Incorporating hydraulic risk helps reduce overly optimistic predictions of plantation survival.
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